Diminished CD4+/CD25+T cell and increased IFN-gamma levels occur in dogs vaccinated with Leishmune (R) in an endemic area for visceral leishmaniasis

The Leishmune (R) vaccine has been used in endemic areas to prevent canine visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil, but cytokine production induced by vaccination has rarely been investigated in dogs. This study aimed to evaluate the immune response of dogs vaccinated with Leishmune FML vaccine (Fort Dodge) against total antigen of Leishmania (Leishmania) chagasi (TAg) and FML. Twenty healthy dogs from Aracatuba, Sao Paulo, Brazil, an endemic leishmaniasis area, received three consecutive subcutaneous injection of Leishmune vaccine at 21-day intervals. PBMC were isolated before and 10 days after completing vaccination and lymphoproliferative response and antibody production against FML or total promastigote antigen were tested. Cytokines IFN-gamma, IL-4 and TNF-alpha were measured in culture supernatant and CD4+/CD25+ and CD8+/CD25+ T cell presence was determined. Analysis of the data indicated that the vaccine conferred humoral responses (100%) against both antigens and cellular immunity to FML (85%) and total antigen (80%), the supernatant of cultured cells stimulated with TAg and FML showed an increase in IFN-gamma (P < 0.05), and the vaccine reduced CD4+/CD25+ T cell presence compared to that observed before vaccination. These responses may constitute part of the immune mechanism induced by Leishmune. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The `club` cell and behavioural and physiological responses to chemical alarm cues in the Nile tilapia

The alarm response to skin extract has been well documented in fish. In response to skin extract, there is a decline in both locomotion activity and aggressive interactions. Our observation herein of these responses in the cichlid Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, confirmed the existence of the alarm response in this species. However, so far there has been a paucity of information on the autonomic correlates of this response. In this study, the ventilatory change in response to the chemical alarm cue was evaluated. This parameter was measured 4 min before and 4 min after exposure to 1 mL of either conspecific skin extract or distilled water (extract vehicle). Skin extract induced an increase in the ventilation rate, which suggested an anticipatory adjustment to potentially harmful stimuli. The chemical cue (alarm substance) also interfered with the prioritisation of responses to different environmental stimuli (stimuli filtering); this was suggested by the observation that the Nile tilapia declined to fight after exposure to a cue that indicates a risk of predation. Furthermore, histological analysis of the Nile tilapia skin revealed the presence of putative alarm substance-producing (club) cells.

Linking physiological and architectural models of cotton

Despite the strong influence of plant architecture on crop yield, most crop models either ignore it or deal with it in a very rudimentary way. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking a model that simulates the morphogenesis and resultant architecture of individual cotton plants with a crop model that simulates the effects of environmental factors on critical physiological processes and resulting yield in cotton. First the varietal parameters of the models were made concordant. Then routines were developed to allocate the flower buds produced each day by the crop model amongst the potential positions generated by the architectural model. This allocation is done according to a set of heuristic rules. The final weight of individual bolls and the shedding of buds and fruit caused by water, N, and C stresses are processed in a similar manner. Observations of the positions of harvestable fruits, both within and between plants, made under a variety of agronomic conditions that had resulted in a broad range of plant architectures were compared to those predicted by the model with the same environmental inputs. As illustrated by comparisons of plant maps, the linked models performed reasonably well, though performance of the fruiting point allocation and shedding algorithms could probably be improved by further analysis of the spatial relationships of retained fruit. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

An Extension of Gompertzian Growth Dynamics Weibull and Frechet Models

In this work a new probabilistic and dynamical approach to an extension of the Gompertz law is proposed. A generalized family of probability density functions, designated by Beta* (p, q), which is proportional to the right hand side of the Tsoularis-Wallace model, is studied. In particular, for p = 2, the investigation is extended to the extreme value models of Weibull and Frechet type. These models, described by differential equations, are proportional to the hyper-Gompertz growth model. It is proved that the Beta* (2, q) densities are a power of betas mixture, and that its dynamics are determined by a non-linear coupling of probabilities. The dynamical analysis is performed using techniques of symbolic dynamics and the system complexity is measured using topological entropy. Generally, the natural history of a malignant tumour is reflected through bifurcation diagrams, in which are identified regions of regression, stability, bifurcation, chaos and terminus.

Application of integer and fractional models in electrochemical systems

This paper describes the use of integer and fractional electrical elements, for modelling two electrochemical systems. A first type of system consists of botanical elements and a second type is implemented by electrolyte processes with fractal electrodes. Experimental results are analyzed in the frequency domain, and the pros and cons of adopting fractional-order electrical components for modelling these systems are compared.

Cell and humoral immunity in endemic pemphigus foliaceus

A study was conducted on 16 patients with pemphigus foliaceus, ten of them with the localized form (group G1) and six with the disseminated form (group G2). These patients were submitted to full blood counts, quantitation of mononuclear cell subpopulations by monoclonal antibodies, study of blastic lymphocyte transformation, and quantitation of circulating antibodies by the indirect immunofluorescence test, in order to correlate their clinical signs and symptoms and laboratory data with their immunological profile, and to determine the relationship between circulating autoantibody titers and lesion intensity and course of lesions under treatment. Leucocytosis was observed especially in group G2. All patients showed decreased relative CD3+ and CD4+ values and a tendency to decreased relative values of the CD8+ subpopulation. Blastic lymphocyte transformation indices in the presence of phytohemagglutinin were higher in patients (group G1+G2) than in controls. The indirect immunofluorescence test was positive in 100% of G2 patients and in 80% of G1 patients. The median value for the titers was higher in group G2 than in group G1. Analysis of the results as a whole permits us to conclude that cell immunity was preserved and that there was a relationship between antibody titers detected by the direct immunofluorescence test and extent of skin lesions.

Per-unit royalty and fixed-fee licensing in a differentiated Stackelberg model

In the present paper we consider a differentiated Stackelberg model, when the leader firm engages in an R&D process that gives an endogenous cost-reducing innovation. The aim is to study the licensing of the cost-reduction by a per-unit royalty and a fixed-fee. We analyse the implications of these types of licensing contracts over the R&D effort, the profits of the firms, the consumer surplus and the social welfare. By using comparative static analysis, we conclude that the degree of the differentiation of the goods plays an important role in the results.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

The new mobility paradigm: transformation of value chain and business models

We would like to thank Philipp Schwarz and Julia Gückel for their dedicated support in preparing this paper and our colleagues and students of the School of Engineering and the Business School for our fruitful discussions.

Participatory Surveillance and Mathematical Models in Epidemiologic Research: Successes and Challenges

Theoretical epidemiology aims to understand the dynamics of diseases in populations and communities. Biological and behavioral processes are abstracted into mathematical formulations which aim to reproduce epidemiological observations. In this thesis a new system for the self-reporting of syndromic data — Influenzanet — is introduced and assessed. The system is currently being extended to address greater challenges of monitoring the health and well-being of tropical communities.(...)