Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Evaluation of financial incentives as a quality improvement strategy in the public hospital context : clinician attitudes, design variables, and economic costs

In 2008, a three-year pilot ‘pay for performance’ (P4P) program, known as ‘Clinical Practice Improvement Payment’ (CPIP) was introduced into Queensland Health (QHealth). QHealth is a large public health sector provider of acute, community, and public health services in Queensland, Australia. The organisation has recently embarked on a significant reform agenda including a review of existing funding arrangements (Duckett et al., 2008). Partly in response to this reform agenda, a casemix funding model has been implemented to reconnect health care funding with outcomes. CPIP was conceptualised as a performance-based scheme that rewarded quality with financial incentives. This is the first time such a scheme has been implemented into the public health sector in Australia with a focus on rewarding quality, and it is unique in that it has a large state-wide focus and includes 15 Districts. CPIP initially targeted five acute and community clinical areas including Mental Health, Discharge Medication, Emergency Department, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, and Stroke. The CPIP scheme was designed around key concepts including the identification of clinical indicators that met the set criteria of: high disease burden, a well defined single diagnostic group or intervention, significant variations in clinical outcomes and/or practices, a good evidence, and clinician control and support (Ward, Daniels, Walker & Duckett, 2007). This evaluative research targeted Phase One of implementation of the CPIP scheme from January 2008 to March 2009. A formative evaluation utilising a mixed methodology and complementarity analysis was undertaken. The research involved three research questions and aimed to determine the knowledge, understanding, and attitudes of clinicians; identify improvements to the design, administration, and monitoring of CPIP; and determine the financial and economic costs of the scheme. Three key studies were undertaken to ascertain responses to the key research questions. Firstly, a survey of clinicians was undertaken to examine levels of knowledge and understanding and their attitudes to the scheme. Secondly, the study sought to apply Statistical Process Control (SPC) to the process indicators to assess if this enhanced the scheme and a third study examined a simple economic cost analysis. The CPIP Survey of clinicians elicited 192 clinician respondents. Over 70% of these respondents were supportive of the continuation of the CPIP scheme. This finding was also supported by the results of a quantitative altitude survey that identified positive attitudes in 6 of the 7 domains-including impact, awareness and understanding and clinical relevance, all being scored positive across the combined respondent group. SPC as a trending tool may play an important role in the early identification of indicator weakness for the CPIP scheme. This evaluative research study supports a previously identified need in the literature for a phased introduction of Pay for Performance (P4P) type programs. It further highlights the value of undertaking a formal risk assessment of clinician, management, and systemic levels of literacy and competency with measurement and monitoring of quality prior to a phased implementation. This phasing can then be guided by a P4P Design Variable Matrix which provides a selection of program design options such as indicator target and payment mechanisms. It became evident that a clear process is required to standardise how clinical indicators evolve over time and direct movement towards more rigorous ‘pay for performance’ targets and the development of an optimal funding model. Use of this matrix will enable the scheme to mature and build the literacy and competency of clinicians and the organisation as implementation progresses. Furthermore, the research identified that CPIP created a spotlight on clinical indicators and incentive payments of over five million from a potential ten million was secured across the five clinical areas in the first 15 months of the scheme. This indicates that quality was rewarded in the new QHealth funding model, and despite issues being identified with the payment mechanism, funding was distributed. The economic model used identified a relative low cost of reporting (under $8,000) as opposed to funds secured of over $300,000 for mental health as an example. Movement to a full cost effectiveness study of CPIP is supported. Overall the introduction of the CPIP scheme into QHealth has been a positive and effective strategy for engaging clinicians in quality and has been the catalyst for the identification and monitoring of valuable clinical process indicators. This research has highlighted that clinicians are supportive of the scheme in general; however, there are some significant risks that include the functioning of the CPIP payment mechanism. Given clinician support for the use of a pay–for-performance methodology in QHealth, the CPIP scheme has the potential to be a powerful addition to a multi-faceted suite of quality improvement initiatives within QHealth.

Sustainability criteria for Industrialised Building System (IBS) in Malaysia

As the sustainability awareness rises globally, the construction industry is under increasing pressure to improve efficiency and project delivery. The implementation of Industrialised Building Systems (IBS), for which utility components are built offsite, has the potential of promoting sustainability deliverables. This can be achieved by better control of production environment, minimising construction waste, using efficient building material energy, and stabilising work conditions. As a unique building technology, IBS has not been effectively implemented in Malaysia. Possible reasons may include limited understanding among stakeholders on the IBS potential and its relevance to sustainability. This warrants studies on the sustainability issues of IBS design, construction, operation and maintenance, A framework is being developed through research to assess performance criteria related to sustainability, which should be considered during IBS design and application in the most consistent and systematic way. This paper discusses how these sustainability performance criteria are examined in a continuing research project and the processes conducive to implementing sustainable IBS in Malaysia. Existing tools, indicators and guidelines are reviewed, analysed and grouped according to characteristics and application. The research also hopes to produce guidelines for stakeholders to incorporate sustainability issues and concepts into IBS applications.

A free weekly iron-folic acid supplementation and regular deworming program is associated with improved hemoglobin and iron status indicators in Vietnamese women

Background Anemia due to iron deficiency is recognized as one of the major nutritional deficiencies in women and children in developing countries. Daily iron supplementation for pregnant women is recommended in many countries although there are few reports of these programs working efficiently or effectively. Weekly iron-folic acid supplementation (WIFS) and regular deworming treatment is recommended for non-pregnant women living in areas with high rates of anemia. Following a baseline survey to assess the prevalence of anemia, iron deficiency and soil transmitted helminth infections, we implemented a program to make WIFS and regular deworming treatment freely and universally available for all women of reproductive age in two districts of a province in northern Vietnam over a 12 month period. The impact of the program at the population level was assessed in terms of: i) change in mean hemoglobin and iron status indicators, and ii) change in the prevalence of anemia, iron deficiency and hookworm infections. Method Distribution of WIFS and deworming were integrated with routine health services and made available to 52,000 women. Demographic data and blood and stool samples were collected in baseline, and three and 12-month post-implementation surveys using a population-based, stratified multi-stage cluster sampling design. Results The mean Hb increased by 9.6 g/L (95% CI, 5.7, 13.5, p < 0.001) during the study period. Anemia (Hb<120 g/L) was present in 131/349 (37.5%, 95% CI 31.3, 44.8) subjects at baseline, and in 70/363 (19.3%, 95% CI 14.0, 24.6) after twelve months. Iron deficiency reduced from 75/329 (22.8%, 95% CI 16.9, 28.6) to 33/353 (9.3%, 95% CI 5.7, 13.0) by the 12-mnth survey, and hookworm infection from 279/366 (76.2%,, 95% CI 68.6, 83.8) to 66/287 (23.0%, 95% CI 17.5, 28.5) over the same period. Conclusion A free, universal WIFS program with regular deworming was associated with reduced prevalence and severity of anemia, iron deficiency and ho

Business cycle dynamics with duration dependence and leading indicators

Durland and McCurdy [Durland, J.M., McCurdy, T.H., 1994. Duration-dependent transitions in a Markov model of US GNP growth. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 279–288] investigated the issue of duration dependence in US business cycle phases using a Markov regime-switching approach, introduced by Hamilton [Hamilton, J., 1989. A new approach to the analysis of time series and the business cycle. Econometrica 57, 357–384] and extended to the case of variable transition parameters by Filardo [Filardo, A.J., 1994. Business cycle phases and their transitional dynamics. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 12, 299–308]. In Durland and McCurdy’s model duration alone was used as an explanatory variable of the transition probabilities. They found that recessions were duration dependent whilst expansions were not. In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the widely-accepted US business cycle phase change dates as determined by the NBER, and use a state-dependent multinomial Logit modelling framework. The model incorporates both duration and movements in two leading indexes – one designed to have a short lead (SLI) and the other designed to have a longer lead (LLI) – as potential explanatory variables. We find that doing so suggests that current duration is not only a significant determinant of transition out of recessions, but that there is some evidence that it is also weakly significant in the case of expansions. Furthermore, we find that SLI has more informational content for the termination of recessions whilst LLI does so for expansions.

Subjective and Objective Indicators of Recovery in Severe Mental Illness: a Cross-Sectional Study

Background: This study aimed to determine whether subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment are associated with self-report of more objective indicators such as level of participation in the community and income from employment. A secondary aim was to investigate the extent to which diagnosis or other consumer characteristics mediated any relationship between these variables. Methods: The Community Integration Measure, the Empowerment Scale, the Recovery Assessment Scale, and the Camberwell Assessment of Needs Short Appraisal Schedule were administered to a convenience sample of 161 consumers with severe mental illness. Results: The majority of participants had a primary diagnosis of schizophreniform, anxiety/depression or bipolar affective disorder. The Empowerment Scale was quite strongly correlated with the Recovery Assessment Scale and the Community Integration Measure. Participants with a diagnosis of bipolar affective disorder had signifi cantly higher recovery and empowerment scores than participants with schizophrenia or depression. Both empowerment and recovery scores were significantly higher for people engaged in paid employment than for those receiving social security benefits. Conclusions: The measurement of subjective dimensions of recovery such as empowerment has validity in evaluation of global recovery for people with severe mental illness. A diagnosis of bipolar disorder is associated with higher scores on subjective and objective indicators of recovery.

An integrated framework to assess financial reward systems in construction projects

Motivation is a major driver of project performance. Despite team member ability to deliver successful project outcomes if they are not positively motivated to pursue joint project goals, then performance will be constrained. One approach to improving the motivation of project organizations is by offering a financial reward for the achievement of set performance standards above a minimum required level. However, little investigation has been undertaken into the features of successful incentive systems as a part of an overall delivery strategy. With input from organizational management literature, and drawing on the literature covering psychological and economic theories of motivation, this paper presents an integrated framework that can be used by project organizations to assess the impact of financial reward systems on motivation in construction projects. The integrated framework offers four motivation indicators which reflect key theoretical concepts across both psychological and economic disciplines. The indicators are: (1) Goal Commitment, (2) Distributive Justice, (3) Procedural Justice, and (4) Reciprocity. The paper also interprets the integrated framework against the results of a successful Australian social infrastructure project case study and identifies key learning’s for project organizations to consider when designing financial reward systems. Case study results suggest that motivation directed towards the achievement of incentive goals is influenced not only by the value placed on the financial reward for commercial benefit, but also driven by the strength of the project initiatives that encourage just and fair dealings, supporting the establishment of trust and positive reciprocal behavior across a project team. The strength of the project relationships was found to be influenced by how attractive the achievement of the goal is to the incentive recipient and how likely they were to push for the achievement of the goal. Interestingly, findings also suggested that contractor motivation is also influenced by the fairness of the performance measurement process and their perception of the trustworthiness and transparency of their client. These findings provide the basis for future research on the impact of financial reward systems on motivation in construction projects. It is anticipated that such research will shed new light on this complex topic and further define how reward systems should be designed to promote project team motivation. Due to the unique nature of construction projects with high levels of task complexity and interdependence, results are expected to vary in comparison to previous studies based on individuals or single-entity organizations.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

Determining indicators of transportation disadvantage for establishing knowledge-based environments

Although, transportation disadvantage or imbalance between travel needs and supply of transportation system is a great harm to knowledge based environments, quantification and objectively measuring the state of transportation disadvantaged remain to be a great challenge for researcher due to its ambiguity. This poses questions of whether the current indicators are accurately linked with transportation disadvantages and the effectiveness of the current policies. Using current indicators of transportation disadvantages, the state of transportation disadvantage is often exaggerated due to limited afford has been put forward to provide clear assessment on the existed relationship between transportation disadvantage indicators with travel performance or capability. This paper proposes a structural equation model of transportation disadvantage using household variables gained from the 2006-2008 South-East Queensland Travel Survey (SEQTS). The underlying relationships between social economics and demographic characteristics of household with travel performance are modelled using a latent variable approach. The final model has been able to fit the data gathered from SEQTS and explained established links between key household factors with travel capability and determined key indicator of travel capability. The model recognises that travel capability is directly influenced by household factors; vehicle ratio, license possession, retirees and pensioners.

The mobile phone : the new communication drum of Papua New Guinea

This thesis examines the role of mobile telephony in rural communities in Papua New Guinea (PNG). It is a threshold study which reports on research conducted in the earliest stages of mobile phone adoption in these areas. It explores the ways in which this new technology changes people’s lives, social structures and relationships. The research focuses on non-urban communities, which previously had little or no access to modern communication technologies, but which are in some cases still using traditional forms of communication such as drums. It has found that the introduction of mobile telecommunications has generally been viewed positively, although several negative concerns have been strongly felt. Specific benefits related to enhanced communication with relatives and friends living away from home villages, and use of the technology in time-critical emergencies or crises. Difficulties have arisen with respect to the cost of owning and operating a handset, as well as financial and logistical challenges when recharging handset batteries, particularly in areas with no mains electricity supply. Perceived damaging effects of mobile phone access related to sex, crime and pornography. The changes taking place are described through a social lens, by foregrounding the perceptions of villagers. The perspectives of key informants, such as telecommunication company managers, are also discussed. Employing the technique of triangulation (using different methods and sources) has helped to validate the findings of the research project. The sources constantly overlap and agree on the main themes, such as those outlined above. PNG is a developing country which performs poorly on a wide range of development indicators. A large majority of the people live outside of the major towns and cities. It is therefore worthwhile investigating the introduction of mobile phone technology in rural areas. These areas often have poor access to services, including transport, health, education and banking. Until 2007, communities in such regions fell outside of mobile phone coverage areas. In the case of all ten villages discussed in this thesis, there has never been any landline telephone infrastructure available. Therefore, this research on mobile phones is in effect documenting the first ever access to any kind of phone in these communities. This research makes a unique contribution to knowledge about the role of communication in PNG, and has implications for policy, practice and theory. In the policy arena, the thesis aids understanding of the impact which communication sector competition and regulation can have on rural and relatively isolated communities. There are three practical problems which have emerged from the research: cost, battery recharging difficulties and breakage are all major obstacles to uptake and use of mobile telephony in rural communities. Efforts to reduce usage costs, enable easier recharging, and design more robust handsets would allow for increased utilisation of mobile phones for a range of purposes. With respect to the realm of theory, this research sits amongst the most recent scholarship in the mobile phone field, located within the broader communication theory area. It recommends cautionary reading of any literature which suggests that mobile phones will reduce poverty and increase incomes in poor, rural communities in developing countries. Nonetheless, the present research adds weight to mobile phone studies which suggest that the primary advantages of mobile phones in such settings are for the satisfactions of communication of itself, and for social interaction among loved ones.

An investigation of unique challenges in National Historic relics and scenic sites (NHRSSs) in Chinese research literature 1982-2008 using co-word analysis

National Housing Relics and Scenic Sites (NHRSSs) in China are the equivalent of National Parks in the West but have contrasting features and broader roles when compared to their Western counterparts. By reviewing and analysing more than 370 academic sources, this paper identifies 6 major issue clusters and future challenges that will influence the management of NHRSSs over time. It also provides a number of cases to illustrate the particular features of NHRSSs. Identifying the hot issues and important challenges in Chinese NHRSSs will provide valuable insights into priorities now being discussed in highly populated areas of the World.

An examination of the microscopic simulation models to identify traffic safety indicators

Evaluating the safety of different traffic facilities is a complex and crucial task. Microscopic simulation models have been widely used for traffic management but have been largely neglected in traffic safety studies. Micro simulation to study safety is more ethical and accessible than the traditional safety studies, which only assess historical crash data. However, current microscopic models are unable to mimic unsafe driver behavior, as they are based on presumptions of safe driver behavior. This highlights the need for a critical examination of the current microscopic models to determine which components and parameters have an effect on safety indicator reproduction. The question then arises whether these safety indicators are valid indicators of traffic safety. The safety indicators were therefore selected and tested for straight motorway segments in Brisbane, Australia. This test examined the capability of a micro-simulation model and presents a better understanding of micro-simulation models and how such models, in particular car following models can be enriched to present more accurate safety indicators.

A review of road traffic noise indicators and their correlation with the LA10(18hour)

This paper outlines a study to determine the correlation between the LA10(18hour) and other road traffic noise indicators. It is based on a database comprising of 404 measurement locations including 947 individual days of valid noise measurements across numerous circumstances taken between November 2001 and November 2007. This paper firstly discusses the need and constraints on the indicators and their nature of matching a suitable indicator to the various road traffic noise dynamical characteristics. The paper then presents a statistical analysis of the road traffic noise monitoring data, correlating various indicators with the LA10(18hour) statistical indicator and provides a comprehensive table of linear correlations. There is an extended analysis on relationships across the night time period. The paper concludes with a discussion on the findings.

designing creative clusters : some indicators

This paper explores how the design of creative clusters as a key strategy in promoting the urban creative economy has played out in Shanghai. Creative Clusters in Europe and North America context have emerged ‘organically’. They developed spontaneously in those cities which went through a period of post-industrial decline. Creative Industries grew up in these cities as part of a new urban economy in the wake of old manufacturing industries. Artists and creative entrepreneurs moved into vacant warehouses and factories and began the trend of ‘creative clusters’. Such clusters facilitate the transfer of tacit knowledge through informal learning, the efficient sourcing of skills and information, competition, collaboration and learning, inter-cluster trading and networking. This new urban phenomenon was soon targeted by local economic development policy in charge of re-generating and re-structuralizing industrial activities in cities. Rising interest from real estate and local economic development has led to more and more planned creative clusters. In the aim of catching up with the world’s creative cities, Shanghai has planned over 100 creative clusters since 2005. Along with these officially designed creative clusters, there are organically emerged creative clusters that are much smaller in scale and much more informal in terms of the management. And they emerged originally in old residential areas just outside the CBD and expand to include French concession the most sort after residential area at the edge of CBD. More recently, office buildings within CBD are made available for creative usages. From fringe to CBD, these organic creative clusters provide crucial evidences for the design of creative clusters. This paper will be organized in 2 parts. In the first part, I will present a case study of 8 ‘official’ clusters (title granted by local govenrment) in Shanghai through which I am hoping to develop some key indicators of the success/failure of creative clusters as well as link them with their physical, social and operational efficacies. In the second part, a variety of ‘alternative’ clusters (organicly formed clusters most of which are not recongnized by the government) supplies with us the possibilities of rethinking the so-called ‘cluster development strategy’ in terms of what kind of spaces are appropriate for use by clusters? Who should manage them and in what format? And ultimately what are their relationship with the rest of the city should be defined?