Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Corrupt police networks : uncovering hidden relationship patterns, functions and roles

This article applies social network analysis techniques to a case study of police corruption in order to produce findings which will assist in corruption prevention and investigation. Police corruption is commonly studied but rarely are sophisticated tools of analyse engaged to add rigour to the field of study. This article analyses the ‘First Joke’ a systemic and long lasting corruption network in the Queensland Police Force, a state police agency in Australia. It uses the data obtained from a commission of inquiry which exposed the network and develops hypotheses as to the nature of the networks structure based on existing literature into dark networks and criminal networks. These hypotheses are tested by entering the data into UCINET and analysing the outcomes through social network analysis measures of average path distance, centrality and density. The conclusions reached show that the network has characteristics not predicted by the literature.

Multiscale analysis of protein functions and stochastic modelling of gene transcriptional regulatory networks

Genomic and proteomic analyses have attracted a great deal of interests in biological research in recent years. Many methods have been applied to discover useful information contained in the enormous databases of genomic sequences and amino acid sequences. The results of these investigations inspire further research in biological fields in return. These biological sequences, which may be considered as multiscale sequences, have some specific features which need further efforts to characterise using more refined methods. This project aims to study some of these biological challenges with multiscale analysis methods and stochastic modelling approach. The first part of the thesis aims to cluster some unknown proteins, and classify their families as well as their structural classes. A development in proteomic analysis is concerned with the determination of protein functions. The first step in this development is to classify proteins and predict their families. This motives us to study some unknown proteins from specific families, and to cluster them into families and structural classes. We select a large number of proteins from the same families or superfamilies, and link them to simulate some unknown large proteins from these families. We use multifractal analysis and the wavelet method to capture the characteristics of these linked proteins. The simulation results show that the method is valid for the classification of large proteins. The second part of the thesis aims to explore the relationship of proteins based on a layered comparison with their components. Many methods are based on homology of proteins because the resemblance at the protein sequence level normally indicates the similarity of functions and structures. However, some proteins may have similar functions with low sequential identity. We consider protein sequences at detail level to investigate the problem of comparison of proteins. The comparison is based on the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), and protein sequences are detected with the intrinsic mode functions. A measure of similarity is introduced with a new cross-correlation formula. The similarity results show that the EMD is useful for detection of functional relationships of proteins. The third part of the thesis aims to investigate the transcriptional regulatory network of yeast cell cycle via stochastic differential equations. As the investigation of genome-wide gene expressions has become a focus in genomic analysis, researchers have tried to understand the mechanisms of the yeast genome for many years. How cells control gene expressions still needs further investigation. We use a stochastic differential equation to model the expression profile of a target gene. We modify the model with a Gaussian membership function. For each target gene, a transcriptional rate is obtained, and the estimated transcriptional rate is also calculated with the information from five possible transcriptional regulators. Some regulators of these target genes are verified with the related references. With these results, we construct a transcriptional regulatory network for the genes from the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The construction of transcriptional regulatory network is useful for detecting more mechanisms of the yeast cell cycle.

Design of experiments for bivariate binary responses modelled by Copula functions

Optimal design for generalized linear models has primarily focused on univariate data. Often experiments are performed that have multiple dependent responses described by regression type models, and it is of interest and of value to design the experiment for all these responses. This requires a multivariate distribution underlying a pre-chosen model for the data. Here, we consider the design of experiments for bivariate binary data which are dependent. We explore Copula functions which provide a rich and flexible class of structures to derive joint distributions for bivariate binary data. We present methods for deriving optimal experimental designs for dependent bivariate binary data using Copulas, and demonstrate that, by including the dependence between responses in the design process, more efficient parameter estimates are obtained than by the usual practice of simply designing for a single variable only. Further, we investigate the robustness of designs with respect to initial parameter estimates and Copula function, and also show the performance of compound criteria within this bivariate binary setting.

Turbulent velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements in an urban environment of the Brisbane River Flood Plain at Gardens Point on 12-13 January 2011

The flood flow in urbanised areas constitutes a major hazard to the population and infrastructure as seen during the summer 2010-2011 floods in Queensland (Australia). Flood flows in urban environments have been studied relatively recently, although no study considered the impact of turbulence in the flow. During the 12-13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River, some turbulence measurements were conducted in an inundated urban environment in Gardens Point Road next to Brisbane's central business district (CBD) at relatively high frequency (50 Hz). The properties of the sediment flood deposits were characterised and the acoustic Doppler velocimeter unit was calibrated to obtain both instantaneous velocity components and suspended sediment concentration in the same sampling volume with the same temporal resolution. While the flow motion in Gardens Point Road was subcritical, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with a distinctive period between 50 and 80 s. The low frequency fluctuations were linked with some local topographic effects: i.e, some local choke induced by an upstream constriction between stairwells caused some slow oscillations with a period close to the natural sloshing period of the car park. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition, and the same triple decomposition was applied to the water depth, velocity flux, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment flux data. The velocity fluctuation data showed a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range. For the first two tests at z = 0.35 m, the turbulence data suggested some isotropy. At z = 0.083 m, on the other hand, the findings indicated some flow anisotropy. The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. During a test (T4), some long -period oscillations were observed with a period about 18 minutes. The cause of these oscillations remains unknown to the authors. The last test (T5) took place in very shallow waters and high suspended sediment concentrations. It is suggested that the flow in the car park was disconnected from the main channel. Overall the flow conditions at the sampling sites corresponded to a specific momentum between 0.2 to 0.4 m2 which would be near the upper end of the scale for safe evacuation of individuals in flooded areas. But the authors do not believe the evacuation of individuals in Gardens Point Road would have been safe because of the intense water surges and flow turbulence. More generally any criterion for safe evacuation solely based upon the flow velocity, water depth or specific momentum cannot account for the hazards caused by the flow turbulence, water depth fluctuations and water surges.

Evaluating multivariate volatility forecasts : how effective are statistical and economic loss functions?

Multivariate volatility forecasts are an important input in many financial applications, in particular portfolio optimisation problems. Given the number of models available and the range of loss functions to discriminate between them, it is obvious that selecting the optimal forecasting model is challenging. The aim of this thesis is to thoroughly investigate how effective many commonly used statistical (MSE and QLIKE) and economic (portfolio variance and portfolio utility) loss functions are at discriminating between competing multivariate volatility forecasts. An analytical investigation of the loss functions is performed to determine whether they identify the correct forecast as the best forecast. This is followed by an extensive simulation study examines the ability of the loss functions to consistently rank forecasts, and their statistical power within tests of predictive ability. For the tests of predictive ability, the model confidence set (MCS) approach of Hansen, Lunde and Nason (2003, 2011) is employed. As well, an empirical study investigates whether simulation findings hold in a realistic setting. In light of these earlier studies, a major empirical study seeks to identify the set of superior multivariate volatility forecasting models from 43 models that use either daily squared returns or realised volatility to generate forecasts. This study also assesses how the choice of volatility proxy affects the ability of the statistical loss functions to discriminate between forecasts. Analysis of the loss functions shows that QLIKE, MSE and portfolio variance can discriminate between multivariate volatility forecasts, while portfolio utility cannot. An examination of the effective loss functions shows that they all can identify the correct forecast at a point in time, however, their ability to discriminate between competing forecasts does vary. That is, QLIKE is identified as the most effective loss function, followed by portfolio variance which is then followed by MSE. The major empirical analysis reports that the optimal set of multivariate volatility forecasting models includes forecasts generated from daily squared returns and realised volatility. Furthermore, it finds that the volatility proxy affects the statistical loss functions’ ability to discriminate between forecasts in tests of predictive ability. These findings deepen our understanding of how to choose between competing multivariate volatility forecasts.

Turbulent measurements in a small subtropical estuary with semidiurnal tides

Since predictions of scalar dispersion in small estuaries can rarely be predicted accurately, new field measurements were conducted continuously at relatively high frequency for up to 50 h (per investigation) in a small subtropical estuary with semidiurnal tides. The bulk flow parameters varied in time with periods comparable to tidal cycles and other large-scale processes. The turbulence properties depended upon the instantaneous local flow properties. They were little affected by the flow history, but their structure and temporal variability were influenced by a variety of parameters including the tidal conditions and bathymetry. A striking feature of the data sets was the large fluctuations in all turbulence characteristics during the tidal cycle, and basic differences between neap and spring tide turbulence.

An experimental study of a reactive plume in grid turbulence

Experimental results for a reactive non-buoyant plume of nitric oxide (NO) in a turbulent grid flow doped with ozone (O3) are presented. The Damkohler number (Nd) for the experiment is of order unity indicating the turbulence and chemistry have similar timescales and both affect the chemical reaction rate. Continuous measurements of two components of velocity using hot-wire anemometry and the two reactants using chemiluminescent analysers have been made. A spatial resolution for the reactants of four Kolmogorov scales has been possible because of the novel design of the experiment. Measurements at this resolution for a reactive plume are not found in the literature. The experiment has been conducted relatively close to the grid in the region where self-similarity of the plume has not yet developed. Statistics of a conserved scalar, deduced from both reactive and non-reactive scalars by conserved scalar theory, are used to establish the mixing field of the plume, which is found to be consistent with theoretical considerations and with those found by other investigators in non-reative flows. Where appropriate the reactive species means and higher moments, probability density functions, joint statistics and spectra are compared with their respective frozen, equilibrium and reaction-dominated limits deduced from conserved scalar theory. The theoretical limits bracket reactive scalar statistics where this should be so according to conserved scalar theory. Both reactants approach their equilibrium limits with greater distance downstream. In the region of measurement, the plume reactant behaves as the reactant not in excess and the ambient reactant behaves as the reactant in excess. The reactant covariance lies outside its frozen and equilibrium limits for this value of Vd. The reaction rate closure of Toor (1969) is compared with the measured reaction rate. The gradient model is used to obtain turbulent diffusivities from turbulent fluxes. Diffusivity of a non-reactive scalar is found to be close to that measured in non-reactive flows by others.

Event-related brain potentials dissociate the developmental time-course of automatic numerical magnitude analysis and cognitive control functions during the first three years of primary school

In this study we set out to dissociate the developmental time course of automatic symbolic number processing and cognitive control functions in grade 1-3 British primary school children. Event-related potential (ERP) and behavioral data were collected in a physical size discrimination numerical Stroop task. Task-irrelevant numerical information was processed automatically already in grade 1. Weakening interference and strengthening facilitation indicated the parallel development of general cognitive control and automatic number processing. Relationships among ERP and behavioral effects suggest that control functions play a larger role in younger children and that automaticity of number processing increases from grade 1 to 3.