984 resultados para Transition rates


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Civil infrastructure provides essential services for the development of both society and economy. It is very important to manage systems efficiently to ensure sound performance. However, there are challenges in information extraction from available data, which also necessitates the establishment of methodologies and frameworks to assist stakeholders in the decision making process. This research proposes methodologies to evaluate systems performance by maximizing the use of available information, in an effort to build and maintain sustainable systems. Under the guidance of problem formulation from a holistic view proposed by Mukherjee and Muga, this research specifically investigates problem solving methods that measure and analyze metrics to support decision making. Failures are inevitable in system management. A methodology is developed to describe arrival pattern of failures in order to assist engineers in failure rescues and budget prioritization especially when funding is limited. It reveals that blockage arrivals are not totally random. Smaller meaningful subsets show good random behavior. Additional overtime failure rate is analyzed by applying existing reliability models and non-parametric approaches. A scheme is further proposed to depict rates over the lifetime of a given facility system. Further analysis of sub-data sets is also performed with the discussion of context reduction. Infrastructure condition is another important indicator of systems performance. The challenges in predicting facility condition are the transition probability estimates and model sensitivity analysis. Methods are proposed to estimate transition probabilities by investigating long term behavior of the model and the relationship between transition rates and probabilities. To integrate heterogeneities, model sensitivity is performed for the application of non-homogeneous Markov chains model. Scenarios are investigated by assuming transition probabilities follow a Weibull regressed function and fall within an interval estimate. For each scenario, multiple cases are simulated using a Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that variations on the outputs are sensitive to the probability regression. While for the interval estimate, outputs have similar variations to the inputs. Life cycle cost analysis and life cycle assessment of a sewer system are performed comparing three different pipe types, which are reinforced concrete pipe (RCP) and non-reinforced concrete pipe (NRCP), and vitrified clay pipe (VCP). Life cycle cost analysis is performed for material extraction, construction and rehabilitation phases. In the rehabilitation phase, Markov chains model is applied in the support of rehabilitation strategy. In the life cycle assessment, the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) tools are used in estimating environmental emissions for all three phases. Emissions are then compared quantitatively among alternatives to support decision making.

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La présente contribution porte sur le passage dans le degré tertiaire en tenant compte de l’intrication des inégalités liées au sexe et au contexte migratoire. L’étude, qui repose sur des concepts de la théorie décisionnelle, s’articule principalement sur une comparaison entre la Suisse (TREE), l’Allemagne (élèves pouvant prétendre aux études supérieures 2002 HIS) et la France (Panel d'élèves du second degré 1995). Les résultats révèlent qu’en Suisse et en Allemagne, indépendamment de l’origine sociale, les jeunes hommes appartenant à certains groupes de migrants socialement défavorisés (2e génération) affichent un taux de passage dans le supérieur plus élevé que leurs camarades nationaux. Ils mettent par ailleurs en évidence que, ni en Suisse, ni en Allemagne, ni en France, les migrantes de deuxième génération issues de pays fortement marqués par le modèle patriarcal sont désavantagées.

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Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

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Measurement of fluorescent lifetimes of dye-tagged DNA molecules reveal the existence of different conformations. Conformational fluctuations observed by fluorescence correlation spectroscopy give rise to a relaxation behavior that is described by “stretched” exponentials and indicates the presence of a distribution of transition rates between two conformations. Whether this is an inhomogeneous distribution, where each molecule contributes with its own reaction rate to the overall distribution, or a homogeneous distribution, where the reaction rate of each molecule is time-dependent, is not yet known. We used a tetramethylrhodamine-linked 217-bp DNA oligonucleotide as a probe for conformational fluctuations. Fluorescence fluctuations from single DNA molecules attached to a streptavidin-coated surface directly show the transitions between two conformational states. The conformational fluctuations typical for single molecules are similar to those seen in single ion channels in cell membranes.

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Endosperm development in Zea mays is characterized by a period of intense mitotic activity followed by a period in which mitosis is essentially eliminated and the cell cycle becomes one of alternating S and G phases, leading to endoreduplication of the nuclear DNA. The endosperm represents a significant contribution to the grain yield of maize; thus, methods that facilitate the study of cellular kinetics may be useful in discerning cellular and molecular components of grain yield. Two mathematical models have been developed to describe the kinetics of endosperm growth. The first describes the kinetics of mitosis during endosperm development; the second describes the kinetics of DNA endoreduplication during endosperm development. The mitotic model is a modification of standard growth curves. The endoreduplication model is composed of six differential equations that represent the progression of nuclei from one DNA content to another during the endoreduplication process. Total nuclei number per endosperm and the number of 3C, 6C, 12C, 24C, 48C, and 96C nuclei per endosperm (C is the haploid DNA content per nucleus) for inbred W64A from 8 to 18 days after pollination were determined by flow cytometry. The results indicate that the change in number of nuclei expressed as a function of the number of days after pollination is the same from one yearly crop to another. These data were used in the model to determine the endosperm growth rate, the maximum nuclei number per endosperm, and transition rates from one C value to the next higher C value. The kinetics of endosperm development are reasonably well represented by the models. Thus, the models provide a means to quantify the complex pattern of endosperm development.

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The birth, death and catastrophe process is an extension of the birth-death process that incorporates the possibility of reductions in population of arbitrary size. We will consider a general form of this model in which the transition rates are allowed to depend on the current population size in an arbitrary manner. The linear case, where the transition rates are proportional to current population size, has been studied extensively. In particular, extinction probabilities, the expected time to extinction, and the distribution of the population size conditional on nonextinction (the quasi-stationary distribution) have all been evaluated explicitly. However, whilst these characteristics are of interest in the modelling and management of populations, processes with linear rate coefficients represent only a very limited class of models. We address this limitation by allowing for a wider range of catastrophic events. Despite this generalisation, explicit expressions can still be found for the expected extinction times.

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A reciclagem agrícola do lodo de esgoto tem provocado o acúmulo de metais pesados no solo e na água, podendo atingir níveis tóxicos e causar danos às plantas cultivadas, aos animais e ao homem, por meio da cadeia trófica. Neste intuito foi desenvolvido o presente experimento, em condições de campo, entre 2000 e 2002, onde foram avaliados os efeitos da aplicação de lodo de esgoto por dois anos, sobre a extração de metais de transição (essenciais e não) pelo extrator DTPA em um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico (LVd) de textura média. As concentrações dos elementos metálicos: Mn, Fe, Cd, Ni, Co, Pb e Cr não foram detectados pelo método da absorção atômica na solução obtida com o extrator DTPA. A aplicação de lodo de esgoto causou inicialmente pequena elevação no pH do solo, posteriormente a diminuição do mesmo, e manteve-se próximo ao original. Foi possível concluir que, com a aplicação consecutiva do lodo, os teores extraíveis de Fe e Mn nas amostras de solos aumentaram gradativamente nos dois anos agrícolas, com as doses do lodo de esgoto aplicado, época de amostragens, e foram superiores ao tratamento testemunha. O extrator apresentou capacidade restrita para avaliação da fitodisponibilidade dos metais pesados decorrentes das baixas concentrações nas amostras de solo.

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Recent evidence suggests that transition risks from initial clinical high risk (CHR) status to psychosis are decreasing. The role played by remission in this context is mostly unknown. The present study addresses this issue by means of a meta-analysis including eight relevant studies published up to January 2012 that reported remission rates from an initial CHR status. The primary effect size measure was the longitudinal proportion of remissions compared to non-remission in subjects with a baseline CHR state. Random effect models were employed to address the high heterogeneity across studies included. To assess the robustness of the results, we performed sensitivity analyses by sequentially removing each study and rerunning the analysis. Of 773 subjects who met initial CHR criteria, 73% did not convert to psychosis along a 2-year follow. Of these, about 46% fully remitted from the baseline attenuated psychotic symptoms, as evaluated on the psychometric measures usually employed by prodromal services. The corresponding clinical remission was estimated as high as 35% of the baseline CHR sample. The CHR state is associated with a significant proportion of remitting subjects that can be accounted by the effective treatments received, a lead time bias, a dilution effect, a comorbid effect of other psychiatric diagnoses.

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Soil organic carbon (C) sequestration rates based on the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) methodology were combined with local economic data to simulate the economic potential for C sequestration in response to conservation tillage in the six agro-ecological zones within the Southern Region of the Australian grains industry. The net C sequestration rate over 20 years for the Southern Region (which includes discounting for associated greenhouse gases) is estimated to be 3.6 or 6.3 Mg C/ha after converting to either minimum or no-tillage practices, respectively, with no-till practices estimated to return 75% more carbon on average than minimum tillage. The highest net gains in C per ha are realised when converting from conventional to no-tillage practices in the high-activity clay soils of the High Rainfall and Wimmera agro-ecological zones. On the basis of total area available for change, the Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the highest net returns, potentially sequestering an additional 7.1 Mt C under no-tillage scenario over 20 years. The economic analysis was summarised as C supply curves for each of the 6 zones expressing the total additional C accumulated over 20 years for a price per t C sequestered ranging from zero to AU$200. For a price of $50/Mg C, a total of 427 000 Mg C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <5% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 9.1 Mt for the region. The Wimmera and Mid-North offer the largest gains in C under minimum tillage over 20 years of all zones for all C prices. For the no-tillage scenario, for a price of $50/Mg C, 1.74 Mt C would be sequestered over 20 years across the Southern Region, <10% of the simulated C sequestration potential of 18.6 Mt for the region over 20 years. The Slopes agro-ecological zone offers the best return in C over 20 years under no-tillage for all C prices. The Mallee offers the least return for both minimum and no-tillage scenarios. At a price of $200/Mg C, the transition from conventional tillage to minimum or no-tillage practices will only realise 19% and 33%, respectively, of the total biogeochemical sequestration potential of crop and pasture systems of the Southern Region over a 20-year period.

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Background: Despite increasing diversity in pathways to adulthood, choices available to young people are influenced by environmental, familial and individual factors, namely access to socioeconomic resources, family support and mental and physical health status. Young people from families with higher socioeconomic position (SEP) are more likely to pursue tertiary education and delay entry to adulthood, whereas those from low socioeconomic backgrounds are less likely to attain higher education or training, and more likely to partner and become parents early. The first group are commonly termed ‘emerging adults’ and the latter group ‘early starters’. Mental health disorders during this transition can seriously disrupt psychological, social and academic development as well as employment prospects. Depression, anxiety and most substance use disorders have early onset during adolescence and early adulthood with approximately three quarters of lifetime psychiatric disorders having emerged by 24 years of age. Aims: This thesis aimed to explore the relationships between mental health, sociodemographic factors and family functioning during the transition to adulthood. Four areas were investigated: 1) The key differences between emerging adults and ‘early starters’, were examined and focused on a series of social, economic, and demographic factors as well as DSM-IV diagnoses; 2) Methodological issues associated with the measurement of depression and anxiety in young adults were explored by comparing a quantitative measure of symptoms of anxiety and depression (Achenbach’s YSR and YASR internalising scales) with DSM-IV diagnosed depression and anxiety. 3) The association between family SEP and DSM-IV depression and anxiety was examined in relation to the different pathways to adulthood. 4) Finally, the association between pregnancy loss, abortion and miscarriage, and DSM-IV diagnoses of common psychiatric disorders was assessed in young women who reported early parenting, experiencing a pregnancy loss, or who had never been pregnant. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a large birth cohort started in 1981 in Brisbane, Australia. 7223 mothers and their children were assessed five times, at 6 months, 5, 14 and 21 years after birth. Over 3700 young adults, aged 18 to 23 years, were interviewed at the 21-year phase. Respondents completed an extensive series of self-reported questionnaires and a computerised structured psychiatric interview. Three outcomes were assessed at the 21-year phase. Mental health disorders diagnosed by a computerised structured psychiatric interview (CIDI-Auto), the prevalence of DSM-IV depression, anxiety and substance use disorders within the previous 12-month, during the transition (between ages of 18 and 23 years) or lifetime were examined. The primary outcome “current stage in the transition to adulthood” was developed using a measure conceptually constructed from the literature. The measure was based on important demographic markers, and these defined four independent groups: emerging adults (single with no children and living with parents), and three categories of ‘early starter’, singles (with no children or partner, living independently), those with a partner (married or cohabitating but without children) and parents. Early pregnancy loss was assessed using a measure that also defined four independent groups and was based on pregnancy outcomes in the young women This categorised the young women into those who were never pregnant, women who gave birth to a live child, and women who reported some form of pregnancy loss, either an abortion or a spontaneous miscarriage. A series of analyses were undertaken to test the study aims. Potential confounding and mediating factors were prospectively measured between the child’s birth and the 21-year phase. Binomial and multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the risk of relevant outcomes, and the associations were reported as odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Key findings: The thesis makes a number of important contributions to our understanding of the transition to adulthood, particularly in relation to the mental health consequences associated with different pathways. Firstly, findings from the thesis clearly showed that young people who parented or partnered early fared worse across most of the economic and social factors as well as the common mental disorders when compared to emerging adults. That is, young people who became early parents were also more likely to experience recent anxiety (OR=2.0, 95%CI 1.5-2.8) and depression (OR=1.7, 95%CI 1.1-2.7) than were emerging adults after taking into account a range of confounding factors. Singles and those partnering early also had higher rates of lifetime anxiety and depression than emerging adults. Young people who partnered early, but were without children, had decreased odds of recent depression; this may be due to the protective effect of early marriage against depression. It was also found that young people who form families early had an increased risk of cigarette smoking (parents OR=3.7, 95%CI 2.9-4.8) compared to emerging adults, but not heavy alcohol (parents OR=0.4, 95%CI 0.3-0.6) or recent illicit drug use. The high rates of cigarette smoking and tobacco use disorders in ‘early starters’ were explained by common risk factors related to early adversity and lower SEP. Having a child and early marriage may well function as a ‘turning point’ for some young people, it is not clear whether this is due to a conscious decision to disengage from a previous ‘substance using’ lifestyle or simply that they no longer have the time to devote to such activities because of child caring. In relation to the methodological issues associated with assessing common mental disorders in young adults, it was found that although the Achenbach empirical internalising scales successfully predicted both later DSM-IV depression (YSR OR=2.3, 95%CI 1.7-3.1) and concurrently diagnosed depression (YASR OR=6.9, 95%CI 5.0- 9.5) and anxiety (YASR OR=5.1, 95%CI 3.8- 6.7), the scales discriminated poorly between young people with or without DSM-IV diagnosed mood disorder. Sensitivity values (the proportion of true positives) for the internalising scales were surprisingly low. Only a third of young people with current DSM-IV depression (range for each of the scales was between 34% to 42%) were correctly identified as cases by the YASR internalising scales, and only a quarter with current anxiety disorder (range of 23% to 31%) were correctly identified. Also, use of the DSM-oriented scales increased sensitivity only marginally (for depression between 2-8%, and anxiety between 2-6%) above the standard Achenbach scales. This is despite the fact that the DSM-oriented scales were originally developed to overcome the poor prediction of DSM-IV diagnoses by the Achenbach scales. The internalising scales, both standard and DSM-oriented, were much more effective at identifying young people with comorbid depression and anxiety, with OR’s 10.1 to 21.7 depending on the internalising scale used. SEP is an important predictor of both an early transition to adulthood and the experience of anxiety during that time Family income during adolescence was a strong predictor of early parenting and partnering before age 24 but not early independent living. Compared to families in the upper quintile, young people from families with low income were nearly twice as likely to live with a partner and four times more likely to become parents (OR ranged from 2.6 to 4.0). This association remained after adjusting for current employment and education level. Children raised in low income families were 30% more likely to have an anxiety disorder (OR=1.3, 95%CI 0.9-1.9), but not depression, as young adults when compared to children from wealthier families. Emerging adults and ‘early starters’ from low income families did not differ in their likelihood of having a later anxiety disorder. Young women reporting a pregnancy loss had nearly three times the odds of experiencing a lifetime illicit drug disorder (excluding cannabis) [abortion OR=3.6, 95%CI 2.0-6.7 and miscarriage OR=2.6, 95%CI 1.2-5.4]. Abortion was associated with alcohol use disorder (OR=2.1, 95%CI 1.3- 3.5) and 12-month depression (OR=1.9, 95%CI 1.1- 3.1). These finding suggest that the association identified by Fergusson et al between abortion and later psychiatric disorders in young women may be due to pregnancy loss and not to abortion, per se. Conclusion: Findings from this thesis support the view that young people who parent or partner early have a greater burden of depression and anxiety when compared to emerging adults. As well, young women experiencing pregnancy loss, from either abortion or miscarriage, are more likely to experience depression and anxiety than are those who give birth to a live infant or who have never been pregnant. Depression, anxiety and substance use disorders often go unrecognised and untreated in young people; this is especially true in young people from lower SEP. Early identification of these common mental health disorders is important, as depression and anxiety experienced during the transition to adulthood have been found to seriously disrupt an individual’s social, educational and economic prospects in later life.

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Melanoma is the most aggressive form of skin cancer. Five-year survival rates for patients with metastatic melanoma are less than 10%, with a median survival of 6 to 9 months. Despite a number of clinical trials for metastatic melanoma, the treatment options for patients are limited. Palliation is often the main goal of treatment. This constructivist grounded theory study is seeking to examine how people with metastatic melanoma negotiate the transition to palliative care. The method of sampling is purposive and data have been generated through semi-structured interviews with those with metastatic melanoma and partners. Open, focused and theoretical coding of data from 13 interviews conducted to date has produced analytical concepts that reflect how the transition is negotiated. These concepts depict ways in which individuals interact with a fragmented health care system and how meanings are constructed around the rapid progression of the disease and uncertain treatment decisions. The preliminary findings reported upon here are being further explored with a larger sample. The findings to date highlight the need for improved coordination of services for those living with metastatic melanoma, and improved support for individuals dealing with uncertainty.

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Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

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We show that the results of Lüty and Ortiz-Lopez relating the cyanide reorientation rates to the high-temperature phase diagrams of alkali-halide-alkali-cyanide mixed crystals can be understood within simple mean-field theory.

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The effect of transition metal oxides (Fe2O3, MnO2, Ni2O3 and Co2O3) on polystyrene/ammonium perchlorate propellant systems has been examined. The mechanism of action of the oxides in increasing the burning rate was examined by studying the effect of the oxides on the thermal decomposition and combustion of the oxidizer and the propellant. It has been concluded that one of the mechanisms by which the oxides act is by promoting the charge-transfer process, which is indicated by the enhancement of the electron-transfer process in ammonium perchlorate and by the correlation between the redox potential of the metal ions and the corresponding burning rates of the propellant.

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Movement rates of eastern king prawns, Melicertus plebejus (Hess), were estimated from historical and recent conventional tag-recapture information collected across eastern Australia. Data from three studies and 2,656 tag recaptures were used. Recaptured males and females both moved east–north-east in central Queensland and north–north-east in southern Queensland and New South Wales. Over a period of one year, the estimated transition matrix reflected the species strong northerly movement and the more complex longitudinal movement, showing a very high probability of eastern movement in central Queensland and almost negligible eastern or western movement in northern New South Wales. The high exchange probability between New South Wales and Queensland waters indicated that spatial assessment models with movement rates between state jurisdictions would improve the management of this single-unit stock.