Application of Intervention Analysis to Evaluate the Impacts of Special Events on Freeways

In China in particular, large, planned special events (e.g., the Olympic Games, etc.) are viewed as great opportunities for economic development. Large numbers of visitors from other countries and provinces may be expected to attend such events, bringing in significant tourism dollars. However, as a direct result of such events, the transportation system is likely to face great challenges as travel demand increases beyond its original design capacity. Special events in central business districts (CBD) in particular will further exacerbate traffic congestion on surrounding freeway segments near event locations. To manage the transportation system, it is necessary to plan and prepare for such special events, which requires prediction of traffic conditions during the events. This dissertation presents a set of novel prototype models to forecast traffic volumes along freeway segments during special events. Almost all research to date has focused solely on traffic management techniques under special event conditions. These studies, at most, provided a qualitative analysis and there was a lack of an easy-to-implement method for quantitative analyses. This dissertation presents a systematic approach, based separately on univariate time series model with intervention analysis and multivariate time series model with intervention analysis for forecasting traffic volumes on freeway segments near an event location. A case study was carried out, which involved analyzing and modelling the historical time series data collected from loop-detector traffic monitoring stations on the Second and Third Ring Roads near Beijing Workers Stadium. The proposed time series models, with expected intervention, are found to provide reasonably accurate forecasts of traffic pattern changes efficiently. They may be used to support transportation planning and management for special events.

Spatial analysis and investigation of fire events occurrences in the Valencian Community, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Analysis and simulation of social unrest in Europe: towards understanding social unrest in Europe

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Analysis of Existing Work-Zone Devices with MASH Safety Performance Criteria, TPF-5(018), 2009

Crashworthy, work-zone, portable sign support systems accepted under NCHRP Report No. 350 were analyzed to predict their safety peformance according to the TL-3 MASH evaluation criteria. An analysis was conducted to determine which hardware parameters of sign support systems would likely contribute to the safety performance with MASH. The acuracy of the method was evaluated through full-scale crash testing. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a pickup truck. Two tall-mounted, sign support systems with aluminum sign panels failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield and floorboard penetration. Another low-mounted system with an aluminum sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Four full-scale crash tests were conducted with a small passenger car. The low-mounted tripod system with an aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to windshield penetration. One low-mounted system with aluminum sign panel failed the MASH criteria due to excessive windshield deformation, and another similar system passed the MASH criteria. The low-mounted system with a vinyl, roll-up sign panel successfully met the MASH criteria. Hardware parameters of work-zone sign support systems that were determined to be important for failure with MASH include sign panel material, the height to the top of the mast, the presence of flags, sign-locking mechanism, base layout and system orientation. Flowcharts were provided to assist manufacturers when designing new sign support systems.

Evaluating fear of falling among community-dwelling older people: A qualitative pattern model based on the experience of falls

This research was conducted in the context of the project IRIS 8A Health and Society (2002-2008) and financially supported by the University of Lausanne. It was aomed at developping a model based on the elder people's experience and allowed us to develop a "Portrait evaluation" of fear of falling using their examples and words. It is a very simple evaluation, which can be used by professionals, but by the elder people themselves. The "Portrait evaluation" and the user's guide are on free access, but we would very much approciate to know whether other people or scientists have used it and collect their comments. (contact: Chantal.Piot-Ziegler@unil.ch)The purpose of this study is to create a model grounded in the elderly people's experience allowing the development of an original instrument to evaluate FOF.In a previous study, 58 semi-structured interviews were conducted with community-dwelling elderly people. The qualitative thematic analysis showed that fear of falling was defined through the functional, social and psychological long-term consequences of falls (Piot-Ziegler et al., 2007).In order to reveal patterns in the expression of fear of falling, an original qualitative thematic pattern analysis (QUAlitative Pattern Analysis - QUAPA) is developed and applied on these interviews.The results of this analysis show an internal coherence across the three dimensions (functional, social and psychological). Four different patterns are found, corresponding to four degrees of fear of falling. They are formalized in a fear of falling intensity model.This model leads to a portrait-evaluation for fallers and non-fallers. The evaluation must be confronted to large samples of elderly people, living in different environments. It presents an original alternative to the concept of self-efficacy to evaluate fear of falling in older people.The model of FOF presented in this article is grounded on elderly people's experience. It gives an experiential description of the three dimensions constitutive of FOF and of their evolution as fear increases, and defines an evaluation tool using situations and wordings based on the elderly people's discourse.

Analysis of Safety Benefits for Shielding of Bridge Piers, 2009

The highway system in the State of Iowa includes many grade separation structures constructed to provide maximum safety and mobility to road users on intersecting roadways. However, these structures can present possible safety concerns for traffic passing underneath due to close proximity of piers and abutments. Shielding of these potential hazards has been a design consideration for many years. This study examines historical crash experience in the State of Iowa to address the advisability of shielding bridge piers and abutments as well as other structure support elements considering the offset from the traveled way. A survey of nine Midwestern states showed that six states had bridge pier shielding practices consistent with those in Iowa. Data used for the analyses include crash data (2001 to 2007) from the Iowa Department of Transportation (Iowa DOT), the Iowa DOT’s Geographic Information Management System (GIMS) structure and roadway data (2006) obtained from the Office of Transportation Data, and shielding and offset data for the bridges of interest. Additionally, original crash reports and the Iowa DOT video log were also utilized as needed. Grade-separated structures over high-speed, multilane divided Interstate and primary highways were selected for analysis, including 566 bridges over roadways with a speed limit of at least 45 mph. Bridges that met the criteria for inclusion in the study were identified for further analysis using crash data. The study also included economic analysis for possible shielding improvement.

Under-reporting of energy intake is more prevalent in a healthy dietary pattern cluster

The aim of the present study was to determine whether under-reporting rates vary between dietary pattern Clusters. Subjects were sixty-five Brazilian women. During 3 weeks, anthropometric data were collected. total energy expenditure (TEE) was determined by the doubly labelled water method and diet Was Measured. Energy intake (El) and the daily frequency of consumption per 1000 kJ of twenty-two food groups were obtained from a FFQ. These frequencies were entered into a Cluster analysis procedure in order to obtain dietary patterns. Under-reporters were defined Lis those who did not lose more than 1 kg of body weight during the study and presented EI:TEE less than 0.82. Three dietary pattern clusters were identified and named according to their most recurrent food groups: sweet foods (SW). starchy foods (ST) and health), (H). Subjects from the healthy cluster had the lowest mean EI:TEE (SW = 0.86, ST = 0.71 and H = 0.58: P = 0.003) and EI - TEE (SW = -0.49 MJ, ST = - 3.20 MJ and H = -5.09 MJ; P = 0.008). The proportion of Under-reporters was 45.2 (95 % CI 35.5, 55.0) % in the SW Cluster: 58.3 (95 % CI 48.6, 68.0) % in the ST Cluster and 70.0 (95 % CI 61.0, 79) % in the H cluster (P=0.34). Thus, in Brazilian women, Under-reporting of El is not uniformly distributed among, dietary pattern clusters and tends to be more severe among subjects from the healthy cluster. This cluster is more consistent with both dietary guidelines and with what lay individuals usually consider `healthy eating`.

Analysis of the effects of thermal cycling on the microtensile shear bond strength of a self-etching and a conventional pit and fissure sealants to dental enamel

Objective: To analyze the effects of thermal cycling on the microtensile shear bond strength of a self-etching and a conventional pit and fissure sealants to dental enamel. Material and Method: Twenty-four healthy human molars extracted for orthodontic reasons, were sectioned in the mesio-distal direction and divided into two groups (n=24) according to the sealant to be applied: GI - conventional sealant Climpro (3M/ESPE) and GII - self-etching sealant Enamel Loc (Premier Dental). The sealants were applied on flattened enamel in matrixes 1 mm in diameter, in accordance with the manufacturers' recommendations. The specimens were stored in distilled water at 37°C for 24 hours. After this, half the samples of both groups were submitted to 500 thermal cycles in 30s baths at temperatures between 5 and 55°C. Forty-eight hours after the samples were made, the microtensile shear test was performed in an Instron 4411 test machine, with a stainless steel wire with a cylindrical cross section of 0.2mm in diameter at a constant speed of 0.5mm/s. The bond strength values were submitted to ANOVA for 2 factors and the fracture patterns were examined under an optical microscope at 65X magnification. Results: Thermal cycling did not influence the bond strength of the two sealants. The conventional sealant Climpro presented a statistically higher microtensile shear bond strength (11.72MPa, 11.34MPa with and without cycling, respectively) than the self-etching sealant Enamel Loc (5.92MPa, 5.02MPa with and without cycling, respectively). Fracture pattern analysis showed the occurrence of 100% of adhesive failures for Enamel Loc, while the conventional sealant Climpro presented 95% of adhesive failures and 5% of mixed failures. Conclusion: The conventional sealant presented higher microtensile shear bond strength to dental enamel in comparison with the self-etching sealant. Thermal cycling did not affect the bond strength of the sealants used in this study. © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Avaliação da tecnologia femtocell como canal de retorno para TV digital

Mensurar os impactos do tráfego de aplicações interativas para TV Digital nas redes sem fio de 4a geração em especial WIMAX e femtocell tem sido um grande desafio para pesquisadores em todo o mundo, o teste destas tecnologias se mostra promissora para a melhor qualidade de serviço prestado pelas operadoras. Inicialmente, identificando o padrão de tráfego de rede através da aferição e caracterização de tráfego de uma aplicação interativa de TV Digital do Sistema Brasileiro de TV Digital (SBTVD). A partir de então, as simulações são feitas sobre uma rede sem fio. Para este estudo, a rede WiMAX foi escolhida como um de nossos estudo de caso. Um estudo dos impactos do uso desta aplicação em uma WMAN (Wireless Metropolitan Área Network) com WiMAX e também utilizando femtocells. Evidentemente, tecnologias sem fio apresentam uma grande variação da qualidade do sinal. Deste modo, é necessário utilizar uma solução para reduzir essa degradação no sinal. Dentre as possíveis soluções, o uso de femtocells surge como alternativa viável para estas melhorias, lembrando que uso de femtocell esta diretamente ligado para áreas onde o sinal é zero ou muito baixo. A utilização de simulações discretas através de ferramentas apropriadas como o OPNET, se mostram bastante úteis para viabilizar a utilização das tecnologias existentes, expondo-as a condições mais adversas de fluxo, carga , numero de usuários e distancias que certamente influenciam no desempenha de cada uma delas.

Deriving vegetation indices for phenology analysis using genetic programming

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamic Traffic Grooming Algorithms for Reconfigurable SONET Over WDM Networks

The emergence of wavelength-division multiplexing (WDM) technology provides the capability for increasing the bandwidth of synchronous optical network (SONET) rings by grooming low-speed traffic streams onto different high-speed wavelength channels. Since the cost of SONET add–drop multiplexers (SADM) at each node dominates the total cost of these networks, how to assign the wavelength, groom the traffic, and bypass the traffic through the intermediate nodes has received a lot of attention from researchers recently. Moreover, the traffic pattern of the optical network changes from time to time. How to develop dynamic reconfiguration algorithms for traffic grooming is an important issue. In this paper, two cases (best fit and full fit) for handling reconfigurable SONET over WDM networks are proposed. For each approach, an integer linear programming model and heuristic algorithms (TS-1 and TS-2, based on the tabu search method) are given. The results demonstrate that the TS-1 algorithm can yield better solutions but has a greater running time than the greedy algorithm for the best fit case. For the full fit case, the tabu search heuristic yields competitive results compared with an earlier simulated annealing based method and it is more stable for the dynamic case.

Tor network forensics and hidden service deanonymization

The cybernetics revolution of the last years improved a lot our lives, having an immediate access to services and a huge amount of information over the Internet. Nowadays the user is increasingly asked to insert his sensitive information on the Internet, leaving its traces everywhere. But there are some categories of people that cannot risk to reveal their identities on the Internet. Even if born to protect U.S. intelligence communications online, nowadays Tor is the most famous low-latency network, that guarantees both anonymity and privacy of its users. The aim of this thesis project is to well understand how the Tor protocol works, not only studying its theory, but also implementing those concepts in practice, having a particular attention for security topics. In order to run a Tor private network, that emulates the real one, a virtual testing environment has been configured. This behavior allows to conduct experiments without putting at risk anonymity and privacy of real users. We used a Tor patch, that stores TLS and circuit keys, to be given as inputs to a Tor dissector for Wireshark, in order to obtain decrypted and decoded traffic. Observing clear traffic allowed us to well check the protocol outline and to have a proof of the format of each cell. Besides, these tools allowed to identify a traffic pattern, used to conduct a traffic correlation attack to passively deanonymize hidden service clients. The attacker, controlling two nodes of the Tor network, is able to link a request for a given hidden server to the client who did it, deanonymizing him. The robustness of the traffic pattern and the statistics, such as the true positive rate, and the false positive rate, of the attack are object of a potential future work.

Spatial and temporal analysis of land cover and landscape structure change in Zagros Forests

The Zagros oak forests in Western Iran are critically important to the sustainability of the region. These forests have undergone dramatic declines in recent decades. We evaluated the utility of the non-parametric Random Forest classification algorithm for land cover classification of Zagros landscapes, and selected the best spatial and spectral predictive variables. The algorithm resulted in high overall classification accuracies (>85%) and also equivalent classification accuracies for the datasets from the three different sensors. We evaluated the associations between trends in forest area and structure with trends in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, to identify the most likely driving forces creating deforestation and landscape structure change. We used available socioeconomic (urban and rural population, and rural income), and climatic (mean annual rainfall and mean annual temperature) data for two provinces in northern Zagros. The most correlated driving force of forest area loss was urban population, and climatic variables to a lesser extent. Landscape structure changes were more closely associated with rural population. We examined the effects of scale changes on the results from spatial pattern analysis. We assessed the impacts of eight years of protection in a protected area in northern Zagros at two different scales (both grain and extent). The effects of protection on the amount and structure of forests was scale dependent. We evaluated the nature and magnitude of changes in forest area and structure over the entire Zagros region from 1972 to 2009. We divided the Zagros region in 167 Landscape Units and developed two measures— Deforestation Sensitivity (DS) and Connectivity Sensitivity (CS) — for each landscape unit as the percent of the time steps that forest area and ECA experienced a decrease of greater than 10% in either measure. A considerable loss in forest area and connectivity was detected, but no sudden (nonlinear) changes were detected at the spatial and temporal scale of the study. Connectivity loss occurred more rapidly than forest loss due to the loss of connecting patches. More connectivity was lost in southern Zagros due to climatic differences and different forms of traditional land use.

Lobe specific Ca2+-calmodulin nano-domain in neuronal spines: a single molecule level analysis.

Calmodulin (CaM) is a ubiquitous Ca(2+) buffer and second messenger that affects cellular function as diverse as cardiac excitability, synaptic plasticity, and gene transcription. In CA1 pyramidal neurons, CaM regulates two opposing Ca(2+)-dependent processes that underlie memory formation: long-term potentiation (LTP) and long-term depression (LTD). Induction of LTP and LTD require activation of Ca(2+)-CaM-dependent enzymes: Ca(2+)/CaM-dependent kinase II (CaMKII) and calcineurin, respectively. Yet, it remains unclear as to how Ca(2+) and CaM produce these two opposing effects, LTP and LTD. CaM binds 4 Ca(2+) ions: two in its N-terminal lobe and two in its C-terminal lobe. Experimental studies have shown that the N- and C-terminal lobes of CaM have different binding kinetics toward Ca(2+) and its downstream targets. This may suggest that each lobe of CaM differentially responds to Ca(2+) signal patterns. Here, we use a novel event-driven particle-based Monte Carlo simulation and statistical point pattern analysis to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics of lobe-specific Ca(2+)-CaM interaction at the single molecule level. We show that the N-lobe of CaM, but not the C-lobe, exhibits a nano-scale domain of activation that is highly sensitive to the location of Ca(2+) channels, and to the microscopic injection rate of Ca(2+) ions. We also demonstrate that Ca(2+) saturation takes place via two different pathways depending on the Ca(2+) injection rate, one dominated by the N-terminal lobe, and the other one by the C-terminal lobe. Taken together, these results suggest that the two lobes of CaM function as distinct Ca(2+) sensors that can differentially transduce Ca(2+) influx to downstream targets. We discuss a possible role of the N-terminal lobe-specific Ca(2+)-CaM nano-domain in CaMKII activation required for the induction of synaptic plasticity.

Fine spatial pattern of an epiphytic lichen species is affected by habitat conditions in two forest types in the Iberian Mediterranean region

Persistence and abundance of species is determined by habitat availability and the ability to disperse and colonize habitats at contrasting spatial scales. Favourable habitat fragments are also heterogeneous in quality, providing differing opportunities for establishment and affecting the population dynamics of a species. Based on these principles, we suggest that the presence and abundance of epiphytes may reflect their dispersal ability, which is primarily determined by the spatial structure of host trees, but also by host quality. To our knowledge there has been no explicit test of the importance of host tree spatial pattern for epiphytes in Mediterranean forests. We hypothesized that performance and host occupancy in a favourable habitat depend on the spatial pattern of host trees, because this pattern affects the dispersal ability of each epiphyte and it also determines the availability of suitable sites for establishment. We tested this hypothesis using new point pattern analysis tools and generalized linear mixed models to investigate the spatial distribution and performance of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria, which inhabits two types of host trees (beeches and Iberian oaks). We tested the effects on L. pulmonaria distribution of tree size, spatial configuration, and host tree identity. We built a model including tree size, stand structure, and several neighbourhood predictors to understand the effect of host tree on L. pulmonaria. We also investigated the relative importance of spatial patterning on the presence and abundance of the species, independently of the host tree configuration. L. pulmonaria distribution was highly dependent on habitat quality for successful establishment, i.e., tree species identity, tree diameter, and several forest stand structure surrogates. For beech trees, tree diameter was the main factor influencing presence and cover of the lichen, although larger lichen-colonized trees were located close to focal trees, i.e., young trees. However, oak diameter was not an important factor, suggesting that bark roughness at all diameters favoured lichen establishment. Our results indicate that L. pulmonaria dispersal is not spatially restricted, but it is dependent on habitat quality. Furthermore, new spatial analysis tools suggested that L. pulmonaria cover exhibits a distinct pattern, although the spatial pattern of tree position and size was random.