A regime-dependent balanced control variable based on potential vorticity

In this paper it is argued that rotational wind is not the best choice of leading control variable for variational data assimilation, and an alternative is suggested and tested. A rotational wind parameter is used in most global variational assimilation systems as a pragmatic way of approximately representing the balanced component of the assimilation increments. In effect, rotational wind is treated as a proxy for potential vorticity, but one that it is potentially not a good choice in flow regimes characterised by small Burger number. This paper reports on an alternative set of control variables which are based around potential vorticity. This gives rise to a new formulation of the background error covariances for the Met Office's variational assimilation system, which leads to flow dependency. It uses similar balance relationships to traditional schemes, but recognises the existence of unbalanced rotational wind which is used with a new anti-balance relationship. The new scheme is described and its performance is evaluated and compared to a traditional scheme using a sample of diagnostics.

Internationalized regimes: a second dimension of regime hybridity

Traditional approaches have conceptualized political regimes almost exclusively with reference to domestic-level political factors. However, many current and historical political regimes have entailed a major role for international actors, and in some cases the external influence has been so great that regimes have become internationalized. This article explores the concept of internationalized regimes and argues that they should be seen as a distinct form of hybrid regime type that demonstrates a distinct dimension of hybridity. Until now, regime hybridity has been conceived of along a single dimension of domestic politics: the level of competitiveness. Yet, some regimes are characterised by a different type of hybridity, in which domestic and international authority are found together within a single political system. The article explores the dynamics of internationalized regimes within three settings, those of international occupation, international administration and informal empire.

Increasing Autumn drought over Southern China associated with ENSO regime shift

In the two most recent decades, more frequent drought struck southern China during autumn, causing an unprecedented water crisis. We found that the increasing autumn drought is largely attributed to an ENSO regime shift. Compared to traditional eastern-Pacific (EP) El Niño, central-Pacific (CP) El Niño events have occurred more frequently, with maximum sea surface temperature anomalies located near the dateline. Southern China usually experiences precipitation surplus during the autumn of EP El Niño years, while the CP El Niño tends to produce precipitation deficits. Since the CP El Niño has occurred more frequently while EP El Niño has become less common after the early 1990s, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of autumn drought. This has implications for increasing precipitation shortages over southern China in a warming world, in which CP El Niño events have been suggested to become more common.

Traditional medicine use by cancer patients in Thailand

Ethnobotanical relevance Cancer patients commonly use traditional medicines (TM) and in Thailand these are popular for both self-medication and as prescribed by TM practitioners, and are rarely monitored. A study was conducted at Wat Khampramong, a Thai Buddhist temple herbal medicine hospice, to document some of these practices as well as the hospice regime. Materials and methods Cancer patients (n=286) were surveyed shortly after admission as to which TMs they had previously taken and perceptions of effects experienced. They were also asked to describe their current symptoms. Treatment at the hospice is built upon an 11-herb anti-cancer formula, yod-ya-mareng, prescribed for all patients, and ideally, its effects would have been evaluated. However other herbal medicines and holistic practices are integral to the regime, so instead we attempted to assess the value of the patients׳ stay at the hospice by measuring any change in symptom burden, as they perceived it. Surviving patients (n=270) were therefore asked to describe their symptoms again just before leaving. Results 42% of patients (120/286; 95% CI 36.4%, 47.8%) had used herbal medicines before their arrival, with 31.7% (38/120; 95% CI 24%, 40.4%) using several at once. Mixed effects were reported for these products. After taking the herbal regime at Khampramong, 77% (208/270 95% CI; 71.7%, 81.7%) reported benefit, and a comparison of the incidence of the most common (pain, dyspepsia, abdominal or visceral pain, insomnia, fatigue) showed statistical significance (χ2 57.1, df 7, p<0.001). Conclusions A wide range of TMs is taken by cancer patients in Thailand and considered to provide more benefit than harm, and this perception extends to the temple regime. Patients reported a significant reduction in symptoms after staying at Khampramong, indicating an improvement in quality of life, the aim of hospices everywhere. Based on this evidence, it is not possible to justify the use of TM for cancer in general, but this study suggests that further research is warranted. The uncontrolled use of TMs, many of which are uncharacterised, raises concerns, and this work also highlights the fact that validated, robust methods of assessing holistic medical regimes are urgently needed.

Towards Presidential Rule in Ukraine : Hybrid Regime Dynamics under Semi-Presidentialism

This article sets out to analyse recent regime developments in Ukraine in relation to semi-presidentialism. The article asks: to what extent and in what ways theoretical arguments against semi-presidentialism (premier-presidential and president-parliamentary systems) are relevant for understanding the changing directions of the Ukrainian regime since the 1990s? The article also reviews the by now overwhelming evidence suggesting that President Yanukovych is turning Ukraine into a more authoritarian hybrid regime and raises the question to what extent the president-parliamentary system might serve this end. The article argues that both kinds of semi-presidentialism have, in different ways, exacerbated rather than mitigated institutional conflict and political stalemate. The return to the president-parliamentary system in 2010 – the constitutional arrangement with the most dismal record of democratisation – was a step in the wrong direction. The premier-presidential regime was by no means ideal, but it had at least two advantages. It weakened the presidential dominance and it explicitly anchored the survival of the government in parliament. The return to the 1996 constitution ties in well with the notion that President Viktor Yanukovych has embarked on an outright authoritarian path.

A eficiência do regime diferenciado de contratações públicas: um estudo comparado entre as licitações dos contratos de recuperação, restauração e manutenção rodoviária do DNIT sob o RDC e sob a lei nº 8.666/93

O objetivo do presente trabalho é investigar qual procedimento de contratação publica–se o procedimento tradicional regido pela Lei nº 8.666/93, na modalidade concorrência, ou o mais recente Regime Diferenciado de Contratações instituído pela Lei nº 12.462/11 – é mais econômico e célere para a contratação de obras públicas. Para tanto, foi realizada uma análise teórico-comparativa dessas duas modalidades de contratação e um estudo empírico comparativo das licitações dos contratos de restauração e manutenção de rodovia (CREMA) realizadas pelo Departamento Nacional de Infraestrutura de Transporte que foram licitados pelo RDC ou na modalidade concorrência da Lei nº 8.666/93.

Regional integration and the issue of choosing an appropriate exchange-rate regime in Latin America

Includes bibliography

Poder e memória: o autoritarismo na igreja presbiteriana do Brasil no período da ditadura militar

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A lei e a força no regime militar brasileiro: da proscrição da frente ampla à edição do Ato Institucional n. 5

This article analyses the Brazilian political process in the period between the beginning of the government of general Arthur da Costa e Silva in March 15, 1967 and the edition of the Institutional Act No. 5 (December 13, 1968). Through the analysis of the key moments in this context, seeks to qualify the actions of the main political players in terms of their goals and strategies and assess the impact that they had on the production of authoritarian legislation.

Autoritäre Regime, Parlamente und die Wahrung von Menschenrechten : eine empirische Untersuchung

Der bei weitem überwiegende Teil der autoritären Regime weltweit verfügt mittlerweile über formal-demokratische Institutionen, wie Parlamente und Wahlen. Die Einführung solcher Institutionen soll unter anderem eine Entwicklung in Richtung Demokratie andeuten oder vortäuschen und so den internationalen und innenpolitischen Druck auf die jeweilige Regierung vermindern. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, ob von diesen formal-demokratischen Institutionen eine Wirkung auf das Regierungshandeln ausgeht und die Menschenrechtslage im Land durch sie verbessert wird. Zunächst werden autoritäre Regime unter Verwendung des minimalistischen Ansatzes von Cheibub et al. definiert. Anschließend werden aus den bisherigen Erkenntnissen der Forschung zur Rolle von formal-demokratischen Institutionen in autoritären Regimen Hypothesen zum Zusammenhang zwischen diesen Institutionen und repressivem Regierungsverhalten abgeleitet, die mit Hilfe einer empirische Analyse von Zeitreihen-Querschnittsdaten aus sämtlichen autoritären Regime zwischen 1979 und 2004 getestet werden. Die Ergebnisse zeigen unter anderem, dass mit steigender Kompetitivität der Parlamentswahlen die Wahrscheinlichkeit drastischster Menschenrechtsverletzungen sinkt. Zudem finden sich Anzeichen dafür, dass es zu weniger Menschenrechtsverletzungen kommt, je geringer die Zersplitterung der Oppositionsparteien ist, während mit einer Zunahme der formalen Kompetenzen der Parlamente das Repressionsniveau steigt.

Empirical Analysis of Credit Risk Regime Switching and Temporal Conditional Default Correlation in Credit Default Swap Valuation: The Market liquidity effect

In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

The Proactive International Dimension and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes

There is international consensus among scholars that democratic transitions are multicausal processes in which both internal and international variables are involved (Pridham 1991, 1995; Whitehead 1996; Schmitter 1996; Linz and Stepan 1996; Carothers 1999; Morlino and Magen 2008; Grilli di Cortona 2009). This chapter is limited, on the one hand, to the dependent variable consisting solely of the crisis/breakdown/transformation of non-democratic regimes in the Third Wave of democratization, and, on the other hand, to an independent variable identified solely with the international dimension of democratic transition. This factor, which can be termed the Proactive International Dimension (PID), specifically concerns that combination of actions or processes, produced by one or more international actors, that, intentionally or not, cause or contribute to the crisis/breakdown/transformation of a non-democratic regime.

The traditional rationale of the arm's length approach to transfer pricing - should the separate accounting model be maintained for modern multinational entities?

This article examines the current transfer pricing regime to consider whether it is a sound model to be applied to modern multinational entities. The arm's length price methodology is examined to enable a discussion of the arguments in favour of such a regime. The article then refutes these arguments concluding that, contrary to the very reason multinational entities exist, applying arm's length rules involves a legal fiction of imagining transactions between unrelated parties. Multinational entities exist to operate in a way that independent entities would not, which the arm's length rules fail to take into account. As such, there is clearly an air of artificiality in applying the arm's length standard. To demonstrate this artificiality with respect to modern multinational entities, multinational banks are used as an example. The article concluded that the separate entity paradigm adopted by the traditional transfer pricing regime is incongruous with the economic theory of modern multinational enterprises.

Inequality, fiscal capacity and the political regime: lessons from the post-communist transition

Using panel data for twenty-seven post-communist economies between 1987-2003, we examine the nexus of relationships between inequality, fiscal capacity (defined as the ability to raise taxes efficiently) and the political regime. Investigating the impact of political reform we find that full political freedom is associated with lower levels of income inequality. Under more oligarchic (authoritarian) regimes, the level of inequality is conditioned by the state’s fiscal capacity. Specifically, oligarchic regimes with more developed fiscal systems are able to defend the prevailing vested interests at a lower cost in terms of social injustice. This empirical finding is consistent with the model developed by Acemoglu (2006). We also find that transition countries undertaking early macroeconomic stabilisation now enjoy lower levels of inequality; we confirm that education fosters equality and the suggestion of Commander et al (1999) that larger countries are prone to higher levels of inequality.

"Rentier States" or the Relationship between Regime Stability and Exercising Power in Post-Soviet Central Asia

The paper intends to give an insight into the relations of the economic and political systems of the Central Asian republics using the theoretical framework of the "rentier economy" and "rentier state" approach. The main findings of the paper are that two (Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan) of the five states examined are commodity export dependent “full-scale” rentier states. The two political systems are of a stable neo-patrimonial regime character, while the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, poor in natural resources but dependent on external rents, may be described as "semi-rentier" states or "rentier economies". They are politically more instable, but have an altogether authoritarian, oligarchical “clan-based” character. Uzbekistan with its closed economy, showing tendencies of economic autarchy, is also a potentially politically unstable clan-based regime. Thus, in the Central Asian context, the rentier state or rentier economy character affects the political stability of the actual regimes rather than having a direct impact on whether power is exercised in an autocratic or democratic way.