Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Counsellor behaviours and patient language during brief motivational interventions: a sequential analysis of speech

AIMS: To investigate empirically the hypothesized relationship between counsellor motivational interviewing (MI) skills and patient change talk (CT) by analysing the articulation between counsellor behaviours and patient language during brief motivational interventions (BMI) addressing at-risk alcohol consumption. DESIGN: Sequential analysis of psycholinguistic codes obtained by two independent raters using the Motivational Interviewing Skill Code (MISC), version 2.0. SETTING: Secondary analysis of data from a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of BMI in an emergency department. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 97 patients tape-recorded when receiving BMI. MEASUREMENTS: MISC variables were categorized into three counsellor behaviours (MI-consistent, MI-inconsistent and 'other') and three kinds of patient language (CT, counter-CT (CCT) and utterances not linked with the alcohol topic). Observed transition frequencies, conditional probabilities and significance levels based on odds ratios were computed using sequential analysis software. FINDINGS: MI-consistent behaviours were the only counsellor behaviours that were significantly more likely to be followed by patient CT. Those behaviours were significantly more likely to be followed by patient change exploration (CT and CCT) while MI-inconsistent behaviours and 'other' counsellor behaviours were significantly more likely to be followed by utterances not linked with the alcohol topic and significantly less likely to be followed by CT. MI-consistent behaviours were more likely after change exploration, whereas 'other' counsellor behaviours were more likely only after utterances not linked with the alcohol topic. CONCLUSIONS: Findings lend support to the hypothesized relationship between MI-consistent behaviours and CT, highlight the importance of patient influence on counsellor behaviour and emphasize the usefulness of MI techniques and spirit during brief interventions targeting change enhancement.

Publication trends of shared decision making in 15 high impact medical journals: a full-text review with bibliometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: Shared Decision Making (SDM) is increasingly advocated as a model for medical decision making. However, there is still low use of SDM in clinical practice. High impact factor journals might represent an efficient way for its dissemination. We aimed to identify and characterize publication trends of SDM in 15 high impact medical journals. METHODS: We selected the 15 general and internal medicine journals with the highest impact factor publishing original articles, letters and editorials. We retrieved publications from 1996 to 2011 through the full-text search function on each journal website and abstracted bibliometric data. We included publications of any type containing the phrase "shared decision making" or five other variants in their abstract or full text. These were referred to as SDM publications. A polynomial Poisson regression model with logarithmic link function was used to assess the evolution across the period of the number of SDM publications according to publication characteristics. RESULTS: We identified 1285 SDM publications out of 229,179 publications in 15 journals from 1996 to 2011. The absolute number of SDM publications by journal ranged from 2 to 273 over 16 years. SDM publications increased both in absolute and relative numbers per year, from 46 (0.32% relative to all publications from the 15 journals) in 1996 to 165 (1.17%) in 2011. This growth was exponential (P < 0.01). We found fewer research publications (465, 36.2% of all SDM publications) than non-research publications, which included non-systematic reviews, letters, and editorials. The increase of research publications across time was linear. Full-text search retrieved ten times more SDM publications than a similar PubMed search (1285 vs. 119 respectively). CONCLUSION: This review in full-text showed that SDM publications increased exponentially in major medical journals from 1996 to 2011. This growth might reflect an increased dissemination of the SDM concept to the medical community.

Cancer mortality inequalities in urban areas: a Bayesian small area analysis in Spanish cities

Background Intra-urban inequalities in mortality have been infrequently analysed in European contexts. The aim of the present study was to analyse patterns of cancer mortality and their relationship with socioeconomic deprivation in small areas in 11 Spanish cities. Methods It is a cross-sectional ecological design using mortality data (years 1996-2003). Units of analysis were the census tracts. A deprivation index was calculated for each census tract. In order to control the variability in estimating the risk of dying we used Bayesian models. We present the RR of the census tract with the highest deprivation vs. the census tract with the lowest deprivation. Results In the case of men, socioeconomic inequalities are observed in total cancer mortality in all cities, except in Castellon, Cordoba and Vigo, while Barcelona (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.42-1.67), Madrid (RR = 1.57 95%CI 1.49-1.65) and Seville (RR = 1.53 95%CI 1.36-1.74) present the greatest inequalities. In general Barcelona and Madrid, present inequalities for most types of cancer. Among women for total cancer mortality, inequalities have only been found in Barcelona and Zaragoza. The excess number of cancer deaths due to socioeconomic deprivation was 16,413 for men and 1,142 for women. Conclusion This study has analysed inequalities in cancer mortality in small areas of cities in Spain, not only relating this mortality with socioeconomic deprivation, but also calculating the excess mortality which may be attributed to such deprivation. This knowledge is particularly useful to determine which geographical areas in each city need intersectorial policies in order to promote a healthy environment.

Comprehensive analysis of RET common and rare variant patientsin a series of Spanish Hirschsprung patients confirms a synergistic effect of both kinds of events

Background. RET is the major gene associated to Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) with differential contributions of its rare and common, coding and noncoding mutations to the multifactorial nature of this pathology. In the present study, we have performed a comprehensive study of our HSCR series evaluating the involvement of both RET rare variants (RVs) and common variants (CVs) in the context of the disease. Methods. RET mutational screening was performed by dHPLC and direct sequencing for the identification of RVs. In addition Taqman technology was applied for the genotyping of 3 RET CVs previously associated to HSCR, including a variant lying in an enhancer domain within RET intron 1 (rs2435357). Statistical analyses were performed using the SPSS v.17.0 to analyze the distribution of the variants. Results. Our results confirm the strongest association to HSCR for the "enhancer" variant, and demonstrate a significantly higher impact of it in male versus female patients. Integration of the RET RVs and CVs analysis showed that in 91.66% of cases with both kinds of mutational events, the enhancer allele is in trans with the allele bearing the RET RV. Conclusions. A gender effect exists on both the transmission and distribution of rare coding and common HSCR causing mutations. In addition, these RET CVs and RVs seem to act in a synergistic way leading to HSCR phenotype.

Cluster analysis of behavioural and event-related potentials during a contingent negative variation paradigm in remitting-relapsing and benign forms of multiple sclerosis

Background: Event-related potentials (ERPs) may be used as a highly sensitive way of detecting subtle degrees of cognitive dysfunction. On the other hand, impairment of cognitive skills is increasingly recognised as a hallmark of patients suffering from multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought to determine the psychophysiological pattern of information processing among MS patients with the relapsing-remitting form of the disease and low physical disability considered as two subtypes: 'typical relapsing-remitting' (RRMS) and 'benign MS' (BMS). Furthermore, we subjected our data to a cluster analysis to determine whether MS patients and healthy controls could be differentiated in terms of their psychophysiological profile.Methods: We investigated MS patients with RRMS and BMS subtypes using event-related potentials (ERPs) acquired in the context of a Posner visual-spatial cueing paradigm. Specifically, our study aimed to assess ERP brain activity in response preparation (contingent negative variation -CNV) and stimuli processing in MS patients. Latency and amplitude of different ERP components (P1, eN1, N1, P2, N2, P3 and late negativity -LN) as well as behavioural responses (reaction time -RT; correct responses -CRs; and number of errors) were analyzed and then subjected to cluster analysis. Results: Both MS groups showed delayed behavioural responses and enhanced latency for long-latency ERP components (P2, N2, P3) as well as relatively preserved ERP amplitude, but BMS patients obtained more important performance deficits (lower CRs and higher RTs) and abnormalities related to the latency (N1, P3) and amplitude of ERPs (eCNV, eN1, LN). However, RRMS patients also demonstrated abnormally high amplitudes related to the preparation performance period of CNV (cCNV) and post-processing phase (LN). Cluster analyses revealed that RRMS patients appear to make up a relatively homogeneous group with moderate deficits mainly related to ERP latencies, whereas BMS patients appear to make up a rather more heterogeneous group with more severe information processing and attentional deficits. Conclusions: Our findings are suggestive of a slowing of information processing for MS patients that may be a consequence of demyelination and axonal degeneration, which also seems to occur in MS patients that show little or no progression in the physical severity of the disease over time.

Clinical pharmacogenomic testing of KRAS, BRAF and EGFR mutations by high resolution melting analysis and ultra-deep pyrosequencing

BACKGROUND: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and its downstream factors KRAS and BRAF are mutated in several types of cancer, affecting the clinical response to EGFR inhibitors. Mutations in the EGFR kinase domain predict sensitivity to the tyrosine kinase inhibitors gefitinib and erlotinib in lung adenocarcinoma, while activating point mutations in KRAS and BRAF confer resistance to the anti-EGFR monoclonal antibody cetuximab in colorectal cancer. The development of new generation methods for systematic mutation screening of these genes will allow more appropriate therapeutic choices. METHODS: We describe a high resolution melting (HRM) assay for mutation detection in EGFR exons 19-21, KRAS codon 12/13 and BRAF V600 using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples. Somatic variation of KRAS exon 2 was also analysed by massively parallel pyrosequencing of amplicons with the GS Junior 454 platform. RESULTS: We tested 120 routine diagnostic specimens from patients with colorectal or lung cancer. Mutations in KRAS, BRAF and EGFR were observed in 41.9%, 13.0% and 11.1% of the overall samples, respectively, being mutually exclusive. For KRAS, six types of substitutions were detected (17 G12D, 9 G13D, 7 G12C, 2 G12A, 2 G12V, 2 G12S), while V600E accounted for all the BRAF activating mutations. Regarding EGFR, two cases showed exon 19 deletions (delE746-A750 and delE746-T751insA) and another two substitutions in exon 21 (one showed L858R with the resistance mutation T590M in exon 20, and the other had P848L mutation). Consistent with earlier reports, our results show that KRAS and BRAF mutation frequencies in colorectal cancer were 44.3% and 13.0%, respectively, while EGFR mutations were detected in 11.1% of the lung cancer specimens. Ultra-deep amplicon pyrosequencing successfully validated the HRM results and allowed detection and quantitation of KRAS somatic mutations. CONCLUSIONS: HRM is a rapid and sensitive method for moderate-throughput cost-effective screening of oncogene mutations in clinical samples. Rather than Sanger sequence validation, next-generation sequencing technology results in more accurate quantitative results in somatic variation and can be achieved at a higher throughput scale.

Analysis of CXCL12 3 ' UTR G > A polymorphism in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is one of the most prevalent cancers in developed countries. However, the genetic factors influencing its appearance remain far from being fully characterized. Recently, a G>A functional transition mapping the 3' untranslated region of the CXCL12 gene (rs1801157) has been found to be under-represented among rectal cancer patients when compared to colon cancer patients from a Swedish series. Here we present the results from an independent analysis of CXCL12 rs1801157 in a larger CRC series of Spanish origin in order to analyse the robustness of this association within a different European population. No significant difference was observed between controls and colon or rectal cancer patients. We were also unable to find a correlation between rs1801157 and different prognostic markers such as metastasis development or disease-free survival time. The epidemiologic data involving CXCL12 rs1801157 in colorectal cancer risk are discussed.

Clinical performance of cervical restorations: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To carry out a meta-analysis in order to assess the influencing factors on retention loss and marginal discoloration of cervical restorations made of composites and glass ionomer (derivates). METHODS: The literature was searched for prospective clinical studies on cervical restorations with an observation period of at least 18 months. RESULTS: Fifty clinical studies involving 40 adhesive systems matched the inclusion criteria. On average, 10% of the cervical fillings were lost and 24% exhibited marginal discoloration after 3 years. The variability ranged from 0% to 50% for retention loss and from 0% to 74% for marginal discoloration. Hardly any secondary caries was detected. When linear mixed models with a study and experiment effect were used, the analysis revealed that the adhesive/restorative class had the most significant influence, with 2-step self-etching adhesive systems performing best and 1-step self-etching adhesive systems performing worst; 3-step etch-and-rinse systems, glass ionomers/resin-modified glass ionomers, 2-step etch-and-rinse systems and polyacid-modified resin composites were ranked in between. Restorations placed in teeth whose dentin/enamel had been prepared/roughened showed a statistically significant higher retention rate than those placed in teeth with unprepared dentin (p<0.05). Beveling of the enamel and the type of isolation used (rubberdam/cotton rolls) had no significant influence. SIGNIFICANCE: The clinical performance of cervical restorations is significantly influenced by the type of adhesive system used and/or the adhesive class to which the system belonged and whether the dentin/enamel is prepared or not. 2-Step self-etching- and 3-step etch&rinse systems shall be chosen over 1-step self-etching systems and glass ionomer derivates. The dentin (and enamel) surface shall be roughened before placement of the restoration.

Sources of pre-analytical variations in yield of DNA extracted from blood samples: analysis of 50,000 DNA samples in EPIC.

The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) is a long-term, multi-centric prospective study in Europe investigating the relationships between cancer and nutrition. This study has served as a basis for a number of Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) and other types of genetic analyses. Over a period of 5 years, 52,256 EPIC DNA samples have been extracted using an automated DNA extraction platform. Here we have evaluated the pre-analytical factors affecting DNA yield, including anthropometric, epidemiological and technical factors such as center of subject recruitment, age, gender, body-mass index, disease case or control status, tobacco consumption, number of aliquots of buffy coat used for DNA extraction, extraction machine or procedure, DNA quantification method, degree of haemolysis and variations in the timing of sample processing. We show that the largest significant variations in DNA yield were observed with degree of haemolysis and with center of subject recruitment. Age, gender, body-mass index, cancer case or control status and tobacco consumption also significantly impacted DNA yield. Feedback from laboratories which have analyzed DNA with different SNP genotyping technologies demonstrate that the vast majority of samples (approximately 88%) performed adequately in different types of assays. To our knowledge this study is the largest to date to evaluate the sources of pre-analytical variations in DNA extracted from peripheral leucocytes. The results provide a strong evidence-based rationale for standardized recommendations on blood collection and processing protocols for large-scale genetic studies.

Factors associated with use of community mental health services by schizophrenia patients using multilevel analysis

BACKGROUND Persons with schizophrenia and related disorders may be particularly sensitive to a number of determinants of service use, including those related with illness, socio-demographic characteristics and organizational factors. The objective of this study is to identify factors associated with outpatient contacts at community mental health services of patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. METHODS This cross-sectional study analyzed 1097 patients. The main outcome measure was the total number of outpatient consultations during one year. Independent variables were related to socio-demographic, clinical and use of service factors. Data were collected from clinical records. RESULTS The multilevel linear regression model explained 46.35% of the variance. Patients with significantly more contacts with ambulatory services were not working and were receiving welfare benefits (p = 0.02), had no formal education (p = 0.02), had a global level of severity of two or three (four being the most severe) (p < 0.001), with one or more inpatient admissions (p < 0.001), and in contact with both types of professional (nurses and psychiatrists) (p < 0.001). The patients with the fewest ambulatory contacts were those with diagnoses of persistent delusional disorders (p = 0.04) and those who were attended by four of the 13 psychiatrists (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS As expected, the variables that explained the use of community service could be viewed as proxies for severity of illness. The most surprising finding, however, was that a group of four psychiatrists was also independently associated with use of ambulatory services by patients with schizophrenia or related disorders. More research is needed to carefully examine how professional support networks interact to affect use of mental health.

Meta-analysis of studies analyzing the role of human papillomavirus in the development of bladder carcinoma

PURPOSE We aimed to ascertain the degree of association between bladder cancer and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a meta-analysis of observational studies with cases and controls with publication dates up to January 2011. The PubMed electronic database was searched by using the key words "bladder cancer and virus." Twenty-one articles were selected that met the required methodological criteria. We implemented an internal quality control system to verify the selected search method. We analyzed the pooled effect of all the studies and also analyzed the techniques used as follows: 1) studies with DNA-based techniques, among which we found studies with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based techniques and 2) studies with non-PCR-based techniques, and studies with non-DNA-based techniques. RESULTS Taking into account the 21 studies that were included in the meta-analysis, we obtained a heterogeneity chi-squared value of Q(exp)=26.45 (p=0.383). The pooled odds ratio (OR) was 2.13 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54 to 2.95), which points to a significant effect between HPV and bladder cancer. Twenty studies assessed the presence of DNA. The overall effect showed a significant relationship between virus presence and bladder cancer, with a pooled OR of 2.19 (95% CI, 1.40 to 3.43). Of the other six studies, four examined the virus's capsid antigen and two detected antibodies in serum by Western blot. The estimated pooled OR in this group was 2.11 (95% CI, 1.27 to 3.51), which confirmed the relationship between the presence of virus and cancer. CONCLUSIONS The pooled OR value showed a moderate relationship between viral infection and bladder tumors.

Do socioeconomic inequalities in mortality vary between different Spanish cities? a pooled cross-sectional analysis.

BACKGROUND The relationship between deprivation and mortality in urban settings is well established. This relationship has been found for several causes of death in Spanish cities in independent analyses (the MEDEA project). However, no joint analysis which pools the strength of this relationship across several cities has ever been undertaken. Such an analysis would determine, if appropriate, a joint relationship by linking the associations found. METHODS A pooled cross-sectional analysis of the data from the MEDEA project has been carried out for each of the causes of death studied. Specifically, a meta-analysis has been carried out to pool the relative risks in eleven Spanish cities. Different deprivation-mortality relationships across the cities are considered in the analysis (fixed and random effects models). The size of the cities is also considered as a possible factor explaining differences between cities. RESULTS Twenty studies have been carried out for different combinations of sex and causes of death. For nine of them (men: prostate cancer, diabetes, mental illnesses, Alzheimer's disease, cerebrovascular disease; women: diabetes, mental illnesses, respiratory diseases, cirrhosis) no differences were found between cities in the effect of deprivation on mortality; in four cases (men: respiratory diseases, all causes of mortality; women: breast cancer, Alzheimer's disease) differences not associated with the size of the city have been determined; in two cases (men: cirrhosis; women: lung cancer) differences strictly linked to the size of the city have been determined, and in five cases (men: lung cancer, ischaemic heart disease; women: ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, all causes of mortality) both kinds of differences have been found. Except for lung cancer in women, every significant relationship between deprivation and mortality goes in the same direction: deprivation increases mortality. Variability in the relative risks across cities was found for general mortality for both sexes. CONCLUSIONS This study provides a general overview of the relationship between deprivation and mortality for a sample of large Spanish cities combined. This joint study allows the exploration of and, if appropriate, the quantification of the variability in that relationship for the set of cities considered.