Making sense of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing in duopoly markets

The prediction of asymmetric equilibria with Stackelberg outcomes is clearly the most frequent result in the endogenous timing literature. Several experiments have tried to validate this prediction empirically, but failed to find support for it. By contrast, the experiments find that simultaneous-move outcomes are modal and that behavior in endogenous timing games is quite heterogeneous. This paper generalizes Saloner’s (1987) and Hamilton and Slutsky’s (1990) endogenous timing games by assuming that players are averse to inequality in payoffs. We explore the theoretical implications of inequity aversion and compare them to the empirical evidence. We find that this explanation is able to organize most of the experimental evidence on endogenous timing games. However, inequity aversion is not able to explain delay in Hamilton and Slutsky’s endogenous timing games.

Exploiting the cointrgration between vix and CDS in a credit market timing model

We investigate the cointegration between VIX and CDS indices, and the possibility of exploiting it in an existing credit market timing investment model. We find cointegration over most of the sample period and the leadership of VIX over the CDS in the price discovery process. We present two methods for including cointegration into the model. Both strategies improve the in-sample and out-of-sample model performances, even though out-of-sample results are weaker. We find that in-sample better performances are explained by a stronger cointegration, concluding that in the presence of cointegration our strategies can be profitable in an investment model that considers transaction costs.

Avaliação do desempenho de fundos de investimento de ouro nos EUA: influência dos diferentes regimes de mercado na seletividade e market-timing

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Learning joint representations for order and timing of perceptual-motor sequences: a dynamic neural field approach

Many of our everyday tasks require the control of the serial order and the timing of component actions. Using the dynamic neural field (DNF) framework, we address the learning of representations that support the performance of precisely time action sequences. In continuation of previous modeling work and robotics implementations, we ask specifically the question how feedback about executed actions might be used by the learning system to fine tune a joint memory representation of the ordinal and the temporal structure which has been initially acquired by observation. The perceptual memory is represented by a self-stabilized, multi-bump activity pattern of neurons encoding instances of a sensory event (e.g., color, position or pitch) which guides sequence learning. The strength of the population representation of each event is a function of elapsed time since sequence onset. We propose and test in simulations a simple learning rule that detects a mismatch between the expected and realized timing of events and adapts the activation strengths in order to compensate for the movement time needed to achieve the desired effect. The simulation results show that the effector-specific memory representation can be robustly recalled. We discuss the impact of the fast, activation-based learning that the DNF framework provides for robotics applications.

Childhood history of abuse and child abuse potential: the role of parent’s gender and timing of childhood abuse

It has been suggested that being physically abused leads to someone becoming a perpetrator of abuse which could be associated to parents' gender, timing of the physical abuse and specific socio-demographic variables. This study aims to investigate the role the parents' gender, timing of childhood abuse and socio-demographic variables on the relationship between parents' history of childhood physical abuse and current risk for children. The sample consisted of 920 parents (414 fathers, 506 mothers) from the Portuguese National Representative Study of Psychosocial Context of Child Abuse and Neglect who completed the Childhood History Questionnaire and the Child Abuse Potential Inventory. The results showed that fathers had lower current potential risk of becoming physical abuse perpetrators with their children than mothers although they did not differed in their physical victimization history. Moreover, the risk was higher in parents (both genders) with continuous history of victimization than in parents without victimization. Prediction models showed that for fathers and mothers separately similar socio-demographic variables (family income, number of children at home, employment status and marital status) predicted the potential risk of becoming physical abuses perpetrators. Nevertheless, the timing of victimization was different for fathers (before 13 years old) and mothers (after 13 years old). Then our study targets specific variables (timing of physical abuse, parents' gender and specific socio-demographic variables), which may enable professionals to select groups of parents at greater need of participating in abuse prevention programs.

Sexual dimorphism in resource acquisition and deployment: both size and timing matter.

Background and Aims The males and females of many dioecious plant species differ from one another in important life-history traits, such as their size. If male and female reproductive functions draw on different resources, for example, one should expect males and females to display different allocation strategies as they grow. Importantly, these strategies may differ not only between the two sexes, but also between plants of different age and therefore size. Results are presented from an experiment that asks whether males and females of Mercurialis annua, an annual plant with indeterminate growth, differ over time in their allocation of two potentially limiting resources (carbon and nitrogen) to vegetative (below-and above-ground) and reproductive tissues.Methods Comparisons were made of the temporal patterns of biomass allocation to shoots, roots and reproduction and the nitrogen content in the leaves between the sexes of M. annua by harvesting plants of each sex after growth over different periods of time.Key Results and Conclusions Males and females differed in their temporal patterns of allocation. Males allocated more to reproduction than females at early stages, but this trend was reversed at later stages. Importantly, males allocated proportionally more of their biomass towards roots at later stages, but the roots of females were larger in absolute terms. The study points to the important role played by both the timing of resource deployment and the relative versus absolute sizes of the sinks and sources in sexual dimorphism of an annual plant.

The Timing of labor demand

We examine the timing of firms' operations in a formal model of labor demand. Merging a variety of data sets from Portugal from 1995-2004, we describe temporal patterns of firms' demand for labor and estimate production-functions and relative labor-demand equations. The results demonstrate the existence of substitution of employment across times of the day/week and show that legislated penalties for work at irregular hours induce firms to alter their operating schedules. The results suggest a role for such penalties in an unregulated labor market, such as the United States, in which unusually large fractions of work are performed at night and on weekends.

Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper we therefore contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

The Timing of Asset Trade and Optimal Policy in Dynamic Open Economies

Using a standard open economy DSGE model, it is shown that the timing of asset trade relative to policy decisions has a potentially important impact on the welfare evaluation of monetary policy at the individual country level. If asset trade in the initial period takes place before the announcement of policy, a national policymaker can choose a policy rule which reduces the work effort of households in the policymaker’s country in the knowledge that consumption is fully insured by optimally chosen international portfolio positions. But if asset trade takes place after the policy announcement, this insurance is absent and households in the policymaker’s country bear the full consumption consequences of the chosen policy rule. The welfare incentives faced by national policymakers are very different between the two cases. Numerical examples confirm that asset market timing has a significant impact on the optimal policy rule.

Global Warming and Fat Tailed-uncertainty: Rethinking the Timing and Intensity of Climate Policy

The possibility of low-probability extreme natural events has reignited the debate over the optimal intensity and timing of climate policy. In this paper, we contribute to the literature by assessing the implications of low-probability extreme events on environmental policy in a continuous-time real options model with “tail risk”. In a nutshell, our results indicate the importance of tail risk and call for foresighted pre-emptive climate policies.

Western Préalpes Médianes Romandes: Timing and structure. A review.

Between the original position and their present day location as klippen, the Prealpes Medianes underwent a complex history of paleotectonics and alpine tectonics. Due to the opening of the Piemont ocean the Brianconnais sedimentation realm of the Prealpes Medianes evolved as a rim basin of the northern passive margin during Jurassic to Eocene times. Different paleotectonic features (normal faults, synsedimentary growth structures, inversion structures) developed and were active above a basal detachment in evaporitic layers. The tectonic movements were a consequence of thermal events in the crust. Isolated from the Iberic continent at the end of the Late Cretaceous, the Brianconnais exotic terrain was incorporated into the accretionary prism of the closing Piemont ocean and the incipient alpine orogeny during the Lutetian-Bartonian. The Prealpes Medianes were detached from their homeland during the Bartonian-Priabonian and were transported onto the foreland. The tectonic style is one of a thin-skinned foreland fold and thrust belt. Fault associated fold development above a main decollement, together with internal deformation, represent the Prealpes Medianes main structural features. The very low-grade metamorphic conditions have their origin in the heat flux induced by tectonic burial by overriding nappes in the accretionary prism. After having been transported on top of the developing Helvetic nappes the Prealpes were emplaced in their present day position in front of the Alpine mountain belt during Oligocene times. Post-emplacement and out of sequence thrusting, possibly younger than Oligocene, is observed and can be related to thrusting in the sedimentary substratum and the basement.

Timing of Palaeozoic magmatism in the Maggia and Sambuco nappes and paleogeographic implications (Central Lepontine Alps)

Magmatic rocks from the pre-Mesozoic basements of the Sambuco and Maggia nappes have been dated by U-Pb zircon ages with the LA-ICPMS technique. Several magmatic events have been identified in the Sambuco nappe. The mafic banded calc-alkaline suite of Scheggia is dated at 540 Ma, an age comparable to that of mafic rocks in the Austroalpine Silvretta nappe. The Sasso Nero peraluminous augengneiss has an age of 480-470 Ma, like many other ``older orthogneisses'' in Alpine basement units. It hosts a large proportion of inherited zircons, which were dated around 630 Ma, a Panafrican age indicating the Gondwanan affiliation of the Sambuco basement. The calc-alkaline Matorello pluton yielded ages around 300 Ma, similar to numerous Late Carboniferous intrusions in other basement units of the Lower Penninic (Monte Leone, Antigorio, Verampio) and Helvetic domains (Gotthard and other External Crystalline Massifs). Associated lamprophyric dykes are slightly younger (300-290 Ma), like similar dykes sampled in gneiss blocks included in the sedimentary cover of the underlying Antigorio nappe (290-285 Ma). The Cocco granodiorite and Ruscada leucogranite, both intruding the basement of the neighbouring Maggia nappe, yielded ages of ca. 300-310 Ma, identical within errors to the age of the Matorello pluton. They are significantly older than former age determinations. This age coincidence, coupled with remarkable petrologic similarities between the Cocco and Matorello granodiorites, strongly suggests paleogeographic proximity of the Sambuco and Maggia nappes in Late Carboniferous times. In recent publications these two nappes have been interpreted as belonging to distinct Mesozoic paleogeographic domains: ``European'' for Sambuco and ``Brian double dagger onnais'' for Maggia, separated by the ``Valais'' oceanic basin. In this case, the similarity of the Matorello and Cocco intrusions would demonstrate the absence of any significant transcurrent movement between these two continental domains. Alternatively, according to a more traditional view, Sambuco and Maggia might belong to a single large Alpine tectonic unit.