Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition

Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

Influence of transport and time on blood variables commonly measured for the athlete biological passport.

Some recent studies have characterized the stability of blood variables commonly measured for the Athlete Biological Passport. The aim of this study was to characterize the impact of different shipments conditions and the quality of the results returned by the haematological analyzer. Twenty-two healthy male subjects provided five EDTA tubes each. Four shipment conditions (24, 36, 48, 72 h) under refrigerated conditions were tested and compared to a set of samples left in the laboratory also under refrigerated conditions (group control). All measurements were conducted using two Sysmex XT-2000i analyzers. Haemoglobin concentration, reticulocytes percentage, and OFF-score numerical data were the same for samples analyzed just after collection and after a shipment under refrigerated conditions up to 72 h. Detailed information reported especially by the differential (DIFF) channel scatterplot of the Sysmex XT-2000i indicated that there were signs of blood deterioration, but were not of relevance for the variables used in the Athlete Biological Passport. As long as the cold chain is guaranteed, the time delay between the collection and the analyses of blood variables can be extended. Copyright© 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Space and time characterization of laser-induced plasmas for applications in chemical analysis and thin film deposition

Après des décennies de développement, l'ablation laser est devenue une technique importante pour un grand nombre d'applications telles que le dépôt de couches minces, la synthèse de nanoparticules, le micro-usinage, l’analyse chimique, etc. Des études expérimentales ainsi que théoriques ont été menées pour comprendre les mécanismes physiques fondamentaux mis en jeu pendant l'ablation et pour déterminer l’effet de la longueur d'onde, de la durée d'impulsion, de la nature de gaz ambiant et du matériau de la cible. La présente thèse décrit et examine l'importance relative des mécanismes physiques qui influencent les caractéristiques des plasmas d’aluminium induits par laser. Le cadre général de cette recherche forme une étude approfondie de l'interaction entre la dynamique de la plume-plasma et l’atmosphère gazeuse dans laquelle elle se développe. Ceci a été réalisé par imagerie résolue temporellement et spatialement de la plume du plasma en termes d'intensité spectrale, de densité électronique et de température d'excitation dans différentes atmosphères de gaz inertes tel que l’Ar et l’He et réactifs tel que le N2 et ce à des pressions s’étendant de 10‾7 Torr (vide) jusqu’à 760 Torr (pression atmosphérique). Nos résultats montrent que l'intensité d'émission de plasma dépend généralement de la nature de gaz et qu’elle est fortement affectée par sa pression. En outre, pour un délai temporel donné par rapport à l'impulsion laser, la densité électronique ainsi que la température augmentent avec la pression de gaz, ce qui peut être attribué au confinement inertiel du plasma. De plus, on observe que la densité électronique est maximale à proximité de la surface de la cible où le laser est focalisé et qu’elle diminue en s’éloignant (axialement et radialement) de cette position. Malgré la variation axiale importante de la température le long du plasma, on trouve que sa variation radiale est négligeable. La densité électronique et la température ont été trouvées maximales lorsque le gaz est de l’argon et minimales pour l’hélium, tandis que les valeurs sont intermédiaires dans le cas de l’azote. Ceci tient surtout aux propriétés physiques et chimiques du gaz telles que la masse des espèces, leur énergie d'excitation et d'ionisation, la conductivité thermique et la réactivité chimique. L'expansion de la plume du plasma a été étudiée par imagerie résolue spatio-temporellement. Les résultats montrent que la nature de gaz n’affecte pas la dynamique de la plume pour des pressions inférieures à 20 Torr et pour un délai temporel inférieur à 200 ns. Cependant, pour des pressions supérieures à 20 Torr, l'effet de la nature du gaz devient important et la plume la plus courte est obtenue lorsque la masse des espèces du gaz est élevée et lorsque sa conductivité thermique est relativement faible. Ces résultats sont confirmés par la mesure de temps de vol de l’ion Al+ émettant à 281,6 nm. D’autre part, on trouve que la vitesse de propagation des ions d’aluminium est bien définie juste après l’ablation et près de la surface de la cible. Toutefois, pour un délai temporel important, les ions, en traversant la plume, se thermalisent grâce aux collisions avec les espèces du plasma et du gaz.

Phase effects on synchronization by dynamical relaying in delay-coupled systems

Synchronization in an array of mutually coupled systems with a finite time delay in coupling is studied using the Josephson junction as a model system. The sum of the transverse Lyapunov exponents is evaluated as a function of the parameters by linearizing the equation about the synchronization manifold. The dependence of synchronization on damping parameter, coupling constant, and time delay is studied numerically. The change in the dynamics of the system due to time delay and phase difference between the applied fields is studied. The case where a small frequency detuning between the applied fields is also discussed.

Femtosecond real-time probing of reactions. 13. Multiphoton dynamics of IHgI

Real-time studies of the dynamics were performed on the reaction of HgI_2 in a molecular beam. Excitation was by either one or multi pump photons (311 nm), leading to two separate sets of dynamics, each of which could be investigated by a time-delayed probe laser (622 nm) that ionized the parent molecule and the fragments by REMPI processes. These dynamics were distinguished by combining the information from transients taken at each mass (HgI_2, HgI, I_2, Hg, and I) with the results of pump (and probe) power dependence studies on each mass. A method of plotting the slope of the intensity dependence against the pump-probe time delay proved essential. In the preceding publication, we detailed the dynamics of the reaction initiated by a one photon excitation to the A-continuum. Here, we present studies of higher-energy states. Multiphoton excitation accesses predissociative states of HgI_2, for which there are crossings into the symmetric and asymmetric stretch coordinates. The dynamics of these channels, which lead to atomic (I or Hg) and diatomic (HgI) fragments, are discussed and related to the nature of the intermediates along the reaction pathway.

Femtosecond time-resolved molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation of Na_2

We present a comparison between experimental and theoretical results for pump/probe multiphoton ionizing transitions of the sodium dimer, initiated by femtosecond laser pulses. It is shown that the motion of vibrational wavepackets in two electronic states is probed simultaneously and their dynamics is reflected in the total Na^+_2 ion signal which is recorded as a function of the time delay between pump and probe pulse. The time dependent quantum calculations demonstrate that two ionization pathways leading to the same final states of the molecularion exist: one gives an oscillating contribution to the ion signal, the other yields a constant background. From additional measurements of the Na^+ -transient photofragmentation spectrum it is deduced that another ionization process leading to different final ionic states exists. The process includes the excitation of a doubly excitedbound Rydberg state. This conclusion is supported by the theoretical simulation.

Including a time-of-year effect in the analysis of a matched case-control study

Motivated by a matched case-control study to investigate potential risk factors for meningococcal disease amongst adolescents, we consider the analysis of matched case-control studies where disease incidence, and possibly other risk factors, vary with time of year. For the cases, the time of infection may be recorded. For controls, however, the recorded time is simply the time of data collection, which is shortly after the time of infection for the matched case, and so depends on the latter. We show that the effect of risk factors and interactions may be adjusted for the time of year effect in a standard conditional logistic regression analysis without introducing any bias. We also show that, if the time delay between data collection for cases and controls is constant, provided this delay is not very short, estimates of the time of year effect are approximately unbiased. In the case that the length of the delay varies over time, the estimate of the time of year effect is biased. We obtain an approximate expression for the degree of bias in this case. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Financial time series analysis : Chaos and neurodynamics approach

This work aims at combining the Chaos theory postulates and Artificial Neural Networks classification and predictive capability, in the field of financial time series prediction. Chaos theory, provides valuable qualitative and quantitative tools to decide on the predictability of a chaotic system. Quantitative measurements based on Chaos theory, are used, to decide a-priori whether a time series, or a portion of a time series is predictable, while Chaos theory based qualitative tools are used to provide further observations and analysis on the predictability, in cases where measurements provide negative answers. Phase space reconstruction is achieved by time delay embedding resulting in multiple embedded vectors. The cognitive approach suggested, is inspired by the capability of some chartists to predict the direction of an index by looking at the price time series. Thus, in this work, the calculation of the embedding dimension and the separation, in Takens‘ embedding theorem for phase space reconstruction, is not limited to False Nearest Neighbor, Differential Entropy or other specific method, rather, this work is interested in all embedding dimensions and separations that are regarded as different ways of looking at a time series by different chartists, based on their expectations. Prior to the prediction, the embedded vectors of the phase space are classified with Fuzzy-ART, then, for each class a back propagation Neural Network is trained to predict the last element of each vector, whereas all previous elements of a vector are used as features.

Detecção de falhas em sistemas incertos com atraso no sinal de controle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Explosive synchronization enhanced by time-delayed coupling

This paper deals with the emergence of explosive synchronization in scale-free networks by considering the Kuramoto model of coupled phase oscillators. The natural frequencies of oscillators are assumed to be correlated with their degrees, and a time delay is included in the system. This assumption allows enhancing the explosive transition to reach a synchronous state. We provide an analytical treatment developed in a star graph, which reproduces results obtained in scale-free networks. Our findings have important implications in understanding the synchronization of complex networks since the time delay is present in most real-world complex systems due to the finite speed of the signal transmission over a distance.

Closed-loop stable model predictive control of integrating systems with dead time

Model predictive control (MPC) applications in the process industry usually deal with process systems that show time delays (dead times) between the system inputs and outputs. Also, in many industrial applications of MPC, integrating outputs resulting from liquid level control or recycle streams need to be considered as controlled outputs. Conventional MPC packages can be applied to time-delay systems but stability of the closed loop system will depend on the tuning parameters of the controller and cannot be guaranteed even in the nominal case. In this work, a state space model based on the analytical step response model is extended to the case of integrating time systems with time delays. This model is applied to the development of two versions of a nominally stable MPC, which is designed to the practical scenario in which one has targets for some of the inputs and/or outputs that may be unreachable and zone control (or interval tracking) for the remaining outputs. The controller is tested through simulation of a multivariable industrial reactor system. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary demography of long-lived monocarpic perennials: a time-lagged integral projection model

1. The evolution of flowering strategies (when and at what size to flower) in monocarpic perennials is determined by balancing current reproduction with expected future reproduction, and these are largely determined by size-specific patterns of growth and survival. However, because of the difficulty in following long-lived individuals throughout their lives, this theory has largely been tested using short-lived species (< 5 years). 2. Here, we tested this theory using the long-lived monocarpic perennial Campanula thyrsoides which can live up to 16 years. We used a novel approach that combined permanent plot and herb chronology data from a 3-year field study to parameterize and validate integral projection models (IPMs). 3. Similar to other monocarpic species, the rosette leaves of C. thyrsoides wither over winter and so size cannot be measured in the year of flowering. We therefore extended the existing IPM framework to incorporate an additional time delay that arises because flowering demography must be predicted from rosette size in the year before flowering. 4. We found that all main demographic functions (growth, survival probability, flowering probability and fecundity) were strongly size-dependent and there was a pronounced threshold size of flowering. There was good agreement between the predicted distribution of flowering ages obtained from the IPMs and that estimated in the field. Mostly, there was good agreement between the IPM predictions and the direct quantitative field measurements regarding the demographic parameters lambda, R-0 and T. We therefore conclude that the model captures the main demographic features of the field populations. 5. Elasticity analysis indicated that changes in the survival and growth function had the largest effect (c. 80%) on lambda and this was considerably larger than in short-lived monocarps. We found only weak selection pressure operating on the observed flowering strategy which was close to the predicted evolutionary stable strategy. 6. Synthesis. The extended IPM accurately described the demography of a long-lived monocarpic perennial using data collected over a relatively short period. We could show that the evolution of flowering strategies in short- and long-lived monocarps seem to follow the same general rules but with a longevity-related emphasis on survival over fecundity.

Time domain passivity control for delayed teleoperation

La telepesencia combina diferentes modalidades sensoriales, incluyendo, entre otras, la visual y la del tacto, para producir una sensación de presencia remota en el operador. Un elemento clave en la implementación de sistemas de telepresencia para permitir una telemanipulación del entorno remoto es el retorno de fuerza. Durante una telemanipulación, la energía mecánica es transferida entre el operador humano y el entorno remoto. En general, la energía es una propiedad de los objetos físicos, fundamental en su mutual interacción. En esta interacción, la energía se puede transmitir entre los objetos, puede cambiar de forma pero no puede crearse ni destruirse. En esta tesis, se aplica este principio fundamental para derivar un nuevo método de control bilateral que permite el diseño de sistemas de teleoperación estables para cualquier arquitectura concebible. El razonamiento parte del hecho de que la energía mecánica insertada por el operador humano en el sistema debe transferirse hacia el entorno remoto y viceversa. Tal como se verá, el uso de la energía como variable de control permite un tratamiento más general del sistema que el control convencional basado en variables específicas del sistema. Mediante el concepto de Red de Potencia de Retardo Temporal (RPRT), el problema de definir los flujos de energía en un sistema de teleoperación es solucionado con independencia de la arquitectura de comunicación. Como se verá, los retardos temporales son la principal causa de generación de energía virtual. Este hecho se observa con retardos a partir de 1 milisegundo. Esta energía virtual es añadida al sistema de forma intrínseca y representa la causa principal de inestabilidad. Se demuestra que las RPRTs son transportadoras de la energía deseada intercambiada entre maestro y esclavo pero a la vez generadoras de energía virtual debido al retardo temporal. Una vez estas redes son identificadas, el método de Control de Pasividad en el Dominio Temporal para RPRTs se propone como mecanismo de control para asegurar la pasividad del sistema, y as__ la estabilidad. El método se basa en el simple hecho de que esta energía virtual debido al retardo debe transformarse en disipación. As__ el sistema se aproxima al sistema deseado, donde solo la energía insertada desde un extremo es transferida hacia el otro. El sistema resultante presenta dos cualidades: por un lado la estabilidad del sistema queda garantizada con independencia de la arquitectura del sistema y del canal de comunicación; por el otro, el rendimiento es maximizado en términos de fidelidad de transmisión energética. Los métodos propuestos se sustentan con sistemas experimentales con diferentes arquitecturas de control y retardos entre 2 y 900 ms. La tesis concluye con un experimento que incluye una comunicación espacial basada en el satélite geoestacionario ASTRA. ABSTRACT Telepresence combines different sensorial modalities, including vision and touch, to produce a feeling of being present in a remote location. The key element to successfully implement a telepresence system and thus to allow telemanipulation of a remote environment is force feedback. In a telemanipulation, mechanical energy must convey from the human operator to the manipulated object found in the remote environment. In general, energy is a property of all physical objects, fundamental to their mutual interactions in which the energy can be transferred among the objects and can change form but cannot be created or destroyed. In this thesis, we exploit this fundamental principle to derive a novel bilateral control mechanism that allows designing stable teleoperation systems with any conceivable communication architecture. The rationale starts from the fact that the mechanical energy injected by a human operator into the system must be conveyed to the remote environment and Vice Versa. As will be seen, setting energy as the control variable allows a more general treatment of the controlled system in contrast to the more conventional control of specific systems variables. Through the Time Delay Power Network (TDPN) concept, the issue of defining the energy flows involved in a teleoperation system is solved with independence of the communication architecture. In particular, communication time delays are found to be a source of virtual energy. This fact is observed with delays starting from 1 millisecond. Since this energy is added, the resulting teleoperation system can be non-passive and thus become unstable. The Time Delay Power Networks are found to be carriers of the desired exchanged energy but also generators of virtual energy due to the time delay. Once these networks are identified, the Time Domain Passivity Control approach for TDPNs is proposed as a control mechanism to ensure system passivity and therefore, system stability. The proposed method is based on the simple fact that this intrinsically added energy due to the communication must be transformed into dissipation. Then the system becomes closer to the ambitioned one, where only the energy injected from one end of the system is conveyed to the other one. The resulting system presents two benefits: On one hand, system stability is guaranteed through passivity independently from the chosen control architecture and communication channel; on the other, performance is maximized in terms of energy transfer faithfulness. The proposed methods are sustained with a set of experimental implementations using different control architectures and communication delays ranging from 2 to 900 milliseconds. An experiment that includes a communication Space link based on the geostationary satellite ASTRA concludes this thesis.

A Modified Positive Velocity and Position Feedback scheme with delay compensation for improved nanopositioning performance

Acknowledgments This paper was sponsored by the Spanish FPU12/00984 Program (Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte). It was also sponsored by the Spanish Government Research Program with the Project DPI2012-37062-CO2-01 (Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad) and by the European Social Fund.

Bathorhodopsin structure in the room-temperature rhodopsin photosequence: picosecond time-resolved coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering.

Structural changes in the retinal chromophore during the formation of the bathorhodopsin intermediate (bathoRT) in the room-temperature rhodopsin (RhRT) photosequence (i.e., vision) are examined using picosecond time-resolved coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering. Specifically, the retinal structure assignable to bathoRT following 8-ps excitation of RhRT is measured via vibrational Raman spectroscopy at a 200-ps time delay where the only intermediate present is bathoRT. Significant differences are observed between the C=C stretching frequencies of the retinal chromophore at low temperature where bathorhodopsin is stabilized and at room temperature where bathorhodopsin is a transient species in the RhRT photosequence. These vibrational data are discussed in terms of the formation of bathoRT, an important step in the energy storage/transduction mechanism of RhRT.