Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Structural and thermodynamic characterization of pre- and postpolymerization states in the F4 fimbrial subunit FaeG.

Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli expressing F4 fimbriae are the major cause of porcine colibacillosis and are responsible for significant death and morbidity in neonatal and postweaned piglets. Via the chaperone-usher pathway, F4 fimbriae are assembled into thin, flexible polymers mainly composed of the single-domain adhesin FaeG. The F4 fimbrial system has been labeled eccentric because the F4 pilins show some features distinct from the features of pilins of other chaperone-usher-assembled structures. In particular, FaeG is much larger than other pilins (27 versus approximately 17 kDa), grafting an additional carbohydrate binding domain on the common immunoglobulin-like core. Structural data of FaeG during different stages of the F4 fimbrial biogenesis process, combined with differential scanning calorimetry measurements, confirm the general principles of the donor strand complementation/exchange mechanisms taking place during pilus biogenesis via the chaperone-usher pathway.

Simple models of complex aggregation: Vesicle formation by soft repulsive spheres with dipolelike interactions

Structural and thermodynamic properties of spherical particles carrying classical spins are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The potential energy is the sum of short range, purely repulsive pair contributions, and spin-spin interactions. These last are of the dipole-dipole form, with however, a crucial change of sign. At low density and high temperature the system is a homogeneous fluid of weakly interacting particles and short range spin correlations. With decreasing temperature particles condense into an equilibrium population of free floating vesicles. The comparison with the electrostatic case, giving rise to predominantly one-dimensional aggregates under similar conditions, is discussed. In both cases condensation is a continuous transformation, provided the isotropic part of the interatomic potential is purely repulsive. At low temperature the model allows us to investigate thermal and mechanical properties of membranes. At intermediate temperatures it provides a simple model to investigate equilibrium polymerization in a system giving rise to predominantly two-dimensional aggregates.

Thermodynamic Studies of Ionic Interactions in Aqueous Solutions of Imidazolium-Based Ionic Liquids [Emim][Br] and [Bmim][Cl]

Experimental measurements of density at different temperatures ranging from 293.15 to 313.15 K, the speed of sound and osmotic coefficients at 298.15 K for aqueous solution of 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide ([Emim][Br]), and osmotic coefficients at 298.15 K for aqueous solutions of 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ([Bmim][Cl]) in the dilute concentration region are taken. The data are used to obtain compressibilities, expansivity, apparent and limiting molar properties, internal pressure, activity, and activity coefficients for [Emim][Br] in aqueous solutions. Experimental activity coefficient data are compared with that obtained from Debye-Hückel and Pitzer models. The activity data are further used to obtain the hydration number and the osmotic second virial coefficients of ionic liquids. Partial molar entropies of [Bmim][Cl] are also obtained using the free-energy and enthalpy data. The distance of the closest approach of ions is estimated using the activity data for ILs in aqueous solutions and is compared with that of X-ray data analysis in the solid phase. The measured data show that the concentration dependence for aqueous solutions of [Emim][Br] can be accounted for in terms of the hydrophobic hydration of ions and that this IL exhibits Coulombic interactions as well as hydrophobic hydration for both the cations and anions. The small hydration numbers for the studied ILs indicate that the low charge density of cations and their hydrophobic nature is responsible for the formation of the water-structure-enforced ion pairs.

Kinetic and thermodynamic investigations on arsenic adsorption onto dolomitic sorbents

Arsenic and its compounds are toxic pollutants for the environment and all living organisms. At present, there is considerable interest in studying new sorbent materials for the removal of arsenic from aqueous solutions. This work discusses the feasibility of arsenic uptake onto dolomite which is considered to be a potential inexpensive adsorbent. Thermodynamic and kinetic experiments were undertaken to assess the capacity and rate of As uptake onto dolomite. Experimental data were mathematically described using adsorption kinetic models, namely pseudo-first-order and pseudo-second-order models. The arsenic removal was found to be dependent on the dosage of dolomite, adsorbent particle size and the presence of various anions. Thermodynamic results indicate that the adsorption follows an exothermic chemisorption process. The experimental data indicate successful removal of As(V) ion from aqueous solution indicating that dolomite be used as an inexpensive treatment process. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomass-derived Oxymethylene Ethers as Diesel Additives: A Thermodynamic Analysis

Conversion of biomass for production of liquid fuels can help in reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are predominantly generated by combustion of fossil fuels. Adding oxymethylene ethers (OMEs) in conventional diesel fuel has the potential to reduce soot formation during the combustion in a diesel engine. OMEs are downstream products of syngas, which can be generated by the gasification of biomass. In this research, a thermodynamic analysis has been conducted through development of data intensive process models of all the unit operations involved in production of OMEs from biomass. Based on the developed model, the key process parameters affecting the OMEs production including equivalence ratio, H2/CO ratio, and extra water flow rate were identified. This was followed by development of an optimal process design for high OMEs production. It was found that for a fluidized bed gasifier with heat capacity of 28 MW, the conditions for highest OMEs production are at an air amount of 317 tonne/day, at H2/CO ratio of 2.1, and without extra water injection. At this level, the total OMEs production is 55 tonne/day (13 tonne/day OME3 and 9 tonne/day OME4). This model would further be used in a techno-economic assessment study of the whole biomass conversion chain to determine the most attractive pathways.

EVALUATION OF THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BY A FORTRAN PROGRAM

Thermodynamic parameters of the atmosphere form part of the input to numerical forecasting models. Usually these parameters are evaluated from a thermodynamic diagram. Here, a technique is developed to evaluate these parameters quickly and accurately using a Fortran program. This technique is tested with four sets of randomly selected data and the results are in agreement with the results from the conventional method. This technique is superior to the conventional method in three respects: more accuracy, less computation time, and evaluation of additional parameters. The computation time for all the parameters on a PC AT 286 machine is II sec. This software, with appropriate modifications, can be used, for verifying various lines on a thermodynamic diagram

Thermodynamic analysis of snowball Earth hysteresis experiment: Efficiency, entropy production and irreversibility

We present an extensive thermodynamic analysis of a hysteresis experiment performed on a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. We slowly vary the solar constant by 20% around the present value and detect that for a large range of values of the solar constant the realization of snowball or of regular climate conditions depends on the history of the system. Using recent results on the global climate thermodynamics, we show that the two regimes feature radically different properties. The efficiency of the climate machine monotonically increases with decreasing solar constant in present climate conditions, whereas the opposite takes place in snowball conditions. Instead, entropy production is monotonically increasing with the solar constant in both branches of climate conditions, and its value is about four times larger in the warm branch than in the corresponding cold state. Finally, the degree of irreversibility of the system, measured as the fraction of excess entropy production due to irreversible heat transport processes, is much higher in the warm climate conditions, with an explosive growth in the upper range of the considered values of solar constants. Whereas in the cold climate regime a dominating role is played by changes in the meridional albedo contrast, in the warm climate regime changes in the intensity of latent heat fluxes are crucial for determining the observed properties. This substantiates the importance of addressing correctly the variations of the hydrological cycle in a changing climate. An interpretation of the climate transitions at the tipping points based upon macro-scale thermodynamic properties is also proposed. Our results support the adoption of a new generation of diagnostic tools based on the second law of thermodynamics for auditing climate models and outline a set of parametrizations to be used in conceptual and intermediate-complexity models or for the reconstruction of the past climate conditions. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Identifying and quantifying nonconservative energy production/destruction terms in hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation models

This paper seeks to illustrate the point that physical inconsistencies between thermodynamics and dynamics usually introduce nonconservative production/destruction terms in the local total energy balance equation in numerical ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Such terms potentially give rise to undesirable forces and/or diabatic terms in the momentum and thermodynamic equations, respectively, which could explain some of the observed errors in simulated ocean currents and water masses. In this paper, a theoretical framework is developed to provide a practical method to determine such nonconservative terms, which is illustrated in the context of a relatively simple form of the hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation used in early versions of OGCMs, for which at least four main potential sources of energy nonconservation are identified; they arise from: (1) the “hanging” kinetic energy dissipation term; (2) assuming potential or conservative temperature to be a conservative quantity; (3) the interaction of the Boussinesq approximation with the parameterizations of turbulent mixing of temperature and salinity; (4) some adiabatic compressibility effects due to the Boussinesq approximation. In practice, OGCMs also possess spurious numerical energy sources and sinks, but they are not explicitly addressed here. Apart from (1), the identified nonconservative energy sources/sinks are not sign definite, allowing for possible widespread cancellation when integrated globally. Locally, however, these terms may be of the same order of magnitude as actual energy conversion terms thought to occur in the oceans. Although the actual impact of these nonconservative energy terms on the overall accuracy and physical realism of the oceans is difficult to ascertain, an important issue is whether they could impact on transient simulations, and on the transition toward different circulation regimes associated with a significant reorganization of the different energy reservoirs. Some possible solutions for improvement are examined. It is thus found that the term (2) can be substantially reduced by at least one order of magnitude by using conservative temperature instead of potential temperature. Using the anelastic approximation, however, which was initially thought as a possible way to greatly improve the accuracy of the energy budget, would only marginally reduce the term (4) with no impact on the terms (1), (2) and (3).

Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case-study from COPS

The present study investigates the initiation of precipitating deep convection in an ensemble of convection-resolving mesoscale models. Results of eight different model runs from five non-hydrostatic models are compared for a case of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). An isolated convective cell initiated east of the Black Forest crest in southwest Germany, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Measurements revealed that, due to the absence of synoptic forcing, convection was initiated by local processes related to the orography. In particular, the lifting by low-level convergence in the planetary boundary layer is assumed to be the dominant process on that day. The models used different configurations as well as different initial and boundary conditions. By comparing the different model performance with each other and with measurements, the processes which need to be well represented to initiate convection at the right place and time are discussed. Besides an accurate specification of the thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the results highlight the role of boundary-layer convergence features for quantitative precipitation forecasts in mountainous terrain.

Thermodynamic efficiency and entropy production in the climate system

We present an outlook on the climate system thermodynamics. First, we construct an equivalent Carnot engine with efficiency and frame the Lorenz energy cycle in a macroscale thermodynamic context. Then, by exploiting the second law, we prove that the lower bound to the entropy production is times the integrated absolute value of the internal entropy fluctuations. An exergetic interpretation is also proposed. Finally, the controversial maximum entropy production principle is reinterpreted as requiring the joint optimization of heat transport and mechanical work production. These results provide tools for climate change analysis and for climate models’ validation.

A GCSS model intercomparison for a tropical squall line observed during toga-coare. II: Intercomparison of single-column models and a cloud-resolving model

This paper presents single-column model (SCM) simulations of a tropical squall-line case observed during the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment of the Tropical Ocean/Global Atmosphere Programme. This case-study was part of an international model intercomparison project organized by Working Group 4 ‘Precipitating Convective Cloud Systems’ of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water-cycle Experiment) Cloud System Study. Eight SCM groups using different deep-convection parametrizations participated in this project. The SCMs were forced by temperature and moisture tendencies that had been computed from a reference cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulation using open boundary conditions. The comparison of the SCM results with the reference CRM simulation provided insight into the ability of current convection and cloud schemes to represent organized convection. The CRM results enabled a detailed evaluation of the SCMs in terms of the thermodynamic structure and the convective mass flux of the system, the latter being closely related to the surface convective precipitation. It is shown that the SCMs could reproduce reasonably well the time evolution of the surface convective and stratiform precipitation, the convective mass flux, and the thermodynamic structure of the squall-line system. The thermodynamic structure simulated by the SCMs depended on how the models partitioned the precipitation between convective and stratiform. However, structural differences persisted in the thermodynamic profiles simulated by the SCMs and the CRM. These differences could be attributed to the fact that the total mass flux used to compute the SCM forcing differed from the convective mass flux. The SCMs could not adequately represent these organized mesoscale circulations and the microphysicallradiative forcing associated with the stratiform region. This issue is generally known as the ‘scale-interaction’ problem that can only be properly addressed in fully three-dimensional simulations. Sensitivity simulations run by several groups showed that the time evolution of the surface convective precipitation was considerably smoothed when the convective closure was based on convective available potential energy instead of moisture convergence. Finally, additional SCM simulations without using a convection parametrization indicated that the impact of a convection parametrization in forced SCM runs was more visible in the moisture profiles than in the temperature profiles because convective transport was particularly important in the moisture budget.

Trends in the CERES dataset, 2000–13: the effects of sea ice and jet shifts and comparison to climate models

We review the effects of dynamical variability on clouds and radiation in observations and models and discuss their implications for cloud feedbacks. Jet shifts produce robust meridional dipoles in upper-level clouds and longwave cloud-radiative effect (CRE), but low-level clouds, which do not simply shift with the jet, dominate the shortwave CRE. Because the effect of jet variability on CRE is relatively small, future poleward jet shifts with global warming are only a second-order contribution to the total CRE changes around the midlatitudes, suggesting a dominant role for thermodynamic effects. This implies that constraining the dynamical response is unlikely to reduce the uncertainty in extratropical cloud feedback. However, we argue that uncertainty in the cloud-radiative response does affect the atmospheric circulation response to global warming, by modulating patterns of diabatic forcing. How cloud feedbacks can affect the dynamical response to global warming is an important topic of future research.

EFFECT OF DRYING METHODS ON THE THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF BLACKBERRY PULP POWDER

Three different types of maltodextrin encapsulated dehydrated blackberry fruit powders were obtained using vibrofluidized bed drying (VF), spray drying (SD), vacuum drying (VD), and freeze drying (FD). Moisture equilibrium data of blackberry pulp powders with 18% maltodextrin were determined at 20, 30, 40, and 50 degrees C using the static gravimetric method for the water activity range of 0.06-0.90. Experimental equilibrium moisture content data versus water activity were fit to the Guggenheim-Anderson-de Boer (GAB) model. Agreement was found between experimental and calculated values. The isosteric heat of sorption of water was determined using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation from the equilibrium data; isosteric heats of sorption were found to increase with increasing temperature and could be adjusted by an exponential relationship. For freeze dried, vibrofluidized, and vacuum dried pulp powder samples, the isosteric heats of sorption were lower (more negative) than those calculated for spray dried samples. The enthalpy-entropy compensation theory was applied to sorption isotherms and plots of Delta H versus Delta S provided the isokinetic temperatures, indicating an enthalpy-controlled sorption process.

Thermodynamic Stabillity of Hydrogen-Bonded Systems in Polar and Nonpolar Environments

The thermodynamic properties of a selected set of benchmark hydrogen-bonded systems (acetic acid dimer and the complexes of acetic acid with acetamide and methanol) was studied with the goal of obtaining detailed information on solvent effects on the hydrogen-bonded interactions using water, chloroform, and n-heptane as representatives for a wide range in the dielectric constant. Solvent effects were investigated using both explicit and implicit solvation models. For the explicit description of the solvent, molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations in the isothermal isobaric (NpT) ensemble combined with the free energy perturbation technique were performed to determine solvation free energies. Within the implicit solvation approach, the polarizable continuum model and the conductor-like screening model were applied. Combination of gas phase results with the results obtained from the different solvation models through an appropriate thermodynamic cycle allows estimation of complexation free energies, enthalpies, and the respective entropic contributions in solution. Owing to the strong solvation effects of water the cyclic acetic acid dimer is not stable in aqueous solution. In less polar solvents the double hydrogen bond structure of the acetic acid dimer remains stable. This finding is in agreement with previous theoretical and experimental results. A similar trend as for the acetic acid dimer is also observed for the acetamide complex. The methanol complex was found to be thermodynamically unstable in gas phase as well as in any of the three solvents. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem 31: 2046-2055, 2010