Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

Variation of Environmental Regulation Stringency Among the Top Ten U.S. Hog Producing States

The U.S. hog industry, once primarily made up of small owner-operated crop-hog farms, has become dominated by large specialized operations characterized by low costs and improved technologies in livestock management. Such changes have triggered concerns over the dangers large Hog Feeding Operations (HFOs) are likely to pose to the environment. In 2007, the top ten states accounted for more than 85 percent of total U.S. hog production (Iowa (IA), North Carolina (NC), Minnesota (MN), Illinois (IL), Nebraska (NE), Indiana (IN), Missouri (MO), Oklahoma (OK), Ohio (OH), and Kansas (KS)). With such domination on production, these states are often the subject of environmental debate relating to hog production. When farmers are required to incorporate environmental measures in hog production, their costs of production increase. Metcalfe (2001) found that small HFOs have found it difficult to cope with such costs and many have exited the industry, while large operations have not been affected at the same level. Due to the variation of environmental regulations among states, other operations moved to states with lax regulations (e.g. NC prior to the late 1990s). Such regulations appear to have played a major role in shaping the structure of the hog industry.

Process for producing biodiesel fuel with reduced viscosity and a cloud point below thirty-two (32) degrees fahrenheit

Triglycerides are reacted in a liquid phase reaction with methanol and a homogeneous basic catalyst. The reaction yields a spatially separated two phase result with an upper located non-polar phase consisting principally of non-polar methyl esters and a lower located phase consisting principally of glycerol and residual methyl esters. The glycerol phase is passed through a strong cationic ion exchanger to remove anions, resulting in a neutral product which is flashed to remove methanol and which is reacted with isobutylene in the presence of a strong acid catalyst to produce glycerol ethers. The glycerol ethers are then added back to the upper located methyl ethyl ester phase to provide an improved biodiesel fuel.

Frame-driven Extraction of Linked Data and Ontologies from Text

Ontology design and population -core aspects of semantic technologies- re- cently have become fields of great interest due to the increasing need of domain-specific knowledge bases that can boost the use of Semantic Web. For building such knowledge resources, the state of the art tools for ontology design require a lot of human work. Producing meaningful schemas and populating them with domain-specific data is in fact a very difficult and time-consuming task. Even more if the task consists in modelling knowledge at a web scale. The primary aim of this work is to investigate a novel and flexible method- ology for automatically learning ontology from textual data, lightening the human workload required for conceptualizing domain-specific knowledge and populating an extracted schema with real data, speeding up the whole ontology production process. Here computational linguistics plays a fundamental role, from automati- cally identifying facts from natural language and extracting frame of relations among recognized entities, to producing linked data with which extending existing knowledge bases or creating new ones. In the state of the art, automatic ontology learning systems are mainly based on plain-pipelined linguistics classifiers performing tasks such as Named Entity recognition, Entity resolution, Taxonomy and Relation extraction [11]. These approaches present some weaknesses, specially in capturing struc- tures through which the meaning of complex concepts is expressed [24]. Humans, in fact, tend to organize knowledge in well-defined patterns, which include participant entities and meaningful relations linking entities with each other. In literature, these structures have been called Semantic Frames by Fill- 6 Introduction more [20], or more recently as Knowledge Patterns [23]. Some NLP studies has recently shown the possibility of performing more accurate deep parsing with the ability of logically understanding the structure of discourse [7]. In this work, some of these technologies have been investigated and em- ployed to produce accurate ontology schemas. The long-term goal is to collect large amounts of semantically structured information from the web of crowds, through an automated process, in order to identify and investigate the cognitive patterns used by human to organize their knowledge.

Influence of host interleukin-10 polymorphisms on development of traveler's diarrhea due to heat-labile enterotoxin-producing Escherichia coli in travelers from the United States who are visiting Mexico.

Up to 60% of U.S. visitors to Mexico develop traveler's diarrhea (TD), mostly due to enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) strains that produce heat-labile (LT) and/or heat-stable (ST) enterotoxins. Distinct single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the interleukin-10 (IL-10) promoter have been associated with high, intermediate, or low production of IL-10. We conducted a prospective study to investigate the association of SNPs in the IL-10 promoter and the occurrence of TD in ETEC LT-exposed travelers. Sera from U.S. travelers to Mexico collected on arrival and departure were studied for ETEC LT seroconversion by using cholera toxin as the antigen. Pyrosequencing was performed to genotype IL-10 SNPs. Stools from subjects who developed diarrhea were also studied for other enteropathogens. One hundred twenty-one of 569 (21.3%) travelers seroconverted to ETEC LT, and among them 75 (62%) developed diarrhea. Symptomatic seroconversion was more commonly seen in subjects who carried a genotype producing high levels of IL-10; it was seen in 83% of subjects with the GG genotype versus 54% of subjects with the AA genotype at IL-10 gene position -1082 (P, 0.02), in 71% of those with the CC genotype versus 33% of those with the TT genotype at position -819 (P, 0.005), and in 71% of those with the CC genotype versus 38% of those with the AA genotype at position -592 (P, 0.02). Travelers with the GCC haplotype were more likely to have symptomatic seroconversion than those with the ATA haplotype (71% versus 38%; P, 0.002). Travelers genetically predisposed to produce high levels of IL-10 were more likely to experience symptomatic ETEC TD.

Time-kill and synergism studies of ceftobiprole against Enterococcus faecalis, including beta-lactamase-producing and vancomycin-resistant isolates.

Ceftobiprole (BAL9141) is an investigational cephalosporin with broad in vitro activity against gram-positive cocci, including enterococci. Ceftobiprole MICs were determined for 93 isolates of Enterococcus faecalis (including 16 beta-lactamase [Bla] producers and 17 vancomycin-resistant isolates) by an agar dilution method following the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute recommendations. Ceftobiprole MICs were also determined with a high inoculum concentration (10(7) CFU/ml) for a subset of five Bla producers belonging to different previously characterized clones by a broth dilution method. Time-kill and synergism studies (with either streptomycin or gentamicin) were performed with two beta-lactamase-producing isolates (TX0630 and TX5070) and two vancomycin-resistant isolates (TX2484 [VanB] and TX2784 [VanA]). The MICs of ceftobiprole for 50 and 90% of the isolates tested were 0.25 and 1 microg/ml, respectively. All Bla producers and vancomycin-resistant isolates were inhibited by concentrations of

Descriptive epidemiological analysis of important risk factors associated with penicillinase -producing {\it Neisseria gonorrhoeae\/} (PPNG)

This study was designed to investigate the important risk factors associated with penicillinase-producing Neisseria gonorrhoeae (PPNG) among patients who attended Dekalb County Sexually Transmitted Disease Clinic from 1982 to 1989.^ Among all of the variables examined, age was found to be the one mostly associated with PPNG, 20-24 year age group in females and 25-29 year age group in males.^ Sex was also found to be associated with PPNG. The majority of cases occurred among males 71.2%, while 28.8 occurred among females. Residential areas were also found to be strongly associated with PPNG. Most of the cases were concentrated in certain zip code urban areas, while some zip code areas farther from the urban area had fewer cases. ^

The effects of IL -10 producing monocytes on T-cell activation in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer

A newly described subset of monocytes has been identified in peritoneal exudate cells (PEC) from the malignant ascites of patients with ovarian cancer. These cells were characterized by the production of IL-10 and TGF-β2, but not IL-12, IL-1α, or TNF-α, and expressed CD14, CD16, and CD54, but not HLA-DR, CD80, CD86, CD11a, CD11b, or CD25 cell surface antigens. Since this subset of monocytes could affect the modulation of tumor immune responses in vivo, studies were undertaken to determine their effect on the activation and proliferation of autologous T-cells from the peritoneal cavity of patients with ovarian carcinoma. Cytokine transcripts, including IL-2, GM-CSF, and IFN-γ were detected in T-cells isolated from patient specimens that also contained the IL-10 producing monocytes, although the IFN-γ and IL-2 proteins could not be detected in T-cells co-incubated with the IL-10 producing monocytes in vitro. Additionally, IL-10 producing monocytes co-cultured with autologous T-cells inhibited the proliferation of the T-cells in response to PHA. T-cell proliferation and cytokine protein production could be restored by the addition of neutralizing antibodies to IL-10R and TGF-β to the co-culture system. These results suggested that this subset of monocytes may modulate antitumor immune responses by inhibiting T-cell proliferation and cytokine protein production. Further studies determined that the precursors to the inhibitory monocytes were tumor-associated and only present in the peripheral blood of patients with ovarian cancer and not present in the peripheral blood of healthy donors. These precursors could be induced to the suppressor phenotype by the addition of IL-2 and GM-CSF, two cytokines detected in the peritoneal cavity of ovarian cancer patients. Lastly, it was shown that the suppressor monocytes from the peritoneal cavity of ovarian cancer patients could be differentiated to a non-inhibitory phenotype by the addition of TNF-α and IFN-γ to the culture system. The differentiated monocytes did not produce IL-10, expressed the activation antigens HLA-DR, CD80, and CD86, and were able to stimulate autologous T-cells in vitro. Since a concomitant reduction in immune function is associated with tumor growth and progression, the effects of these monocytes are of considerable importance in the context of tumor immunotherapy. ^

The effects of elevated CO2 on the growth and toxicity of field populations and cultures of the saxitoxin-producing dinoflagellate, Alexandrium fundyense

The effects of coastal acidification on the growth and toxicity of the saxitoxin-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium fundyense were examined in culture and ecosystem studies. In culture experiments, Alexandrium strains isolated from Northport Bay, New York, and the Bay of Fundy, Canada, grew significantly faster (16-190%; p < 0.05) when exposed to elevated levels of PCO2 ( 90-190 Pa=900-1900 µatm) compared to lower levels ( 40 Pa=400 µatm). Exposure to higher levels of PCO2 also resulted in significant increases (71-81%) in total cellular toxicity (fg saxitoxin equivalents/cell) in the Northport Bay strain, while no changes in toxicity were detected in the Bay of Fundy strain. The positive relationship between PCO2 enrichment and elevated growth was reproducible in natural populations from New York waters. Alexandrium densities were significantly and consistently enhanced when natural populations were incubated at 150 Pa PCO2 compared to 39 Pa. During natural Alexandrium blooms in Northport Bay, PCO2 concentrations increased over the course of a bloom to more than 170 Pa and were highest in regions with the greatest Alexandrium abundances, suggesting Alexandrium may further exacerbate acidification and/or be especially adapted to these acidi-fied conditions. The co-occurrence of Alexandrium blooms and elevated PCO2 represents a previously unrecognized, compounding environmental threat to coastal ecosystems. The ability of elevated PCO2 to enhance the growth and toxicity of Alexandrium indicates that acidification promoted by eutrophication or climate change can intensify these, and perhaps other, harmful algal blooms.

Cleft palate in mice with a targeted mutation in the γ-aminobutyric acid-producing enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase 67

The functions of neurotransmitters in fetal development are poorly understood. Genetic observations have suggested a role for the inhibitory amino acid neurotransmitter γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in the normal development of the mouse palate. Mice homozygous for mutations in the β-3 GABAA receptor subunit develop a cleft secondary palate. GABA, the ligand for this receptor, is synthesized by the enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase. We have disrupted one of the two mouse Gad genes by gene targeting and also find defects in the formation of the palate. The striking similarity in phenotype between the receptor and ligand mutations clearly demonstrates a role for GABA signaling in normal palate development.