Tools for testing the Solvency Capital Requirement for life insurance

Longevity risk is one of the major risks that an insurance company or a pension fund has to deal with and it is expected that its importance will grow in the near future. In agreement with these considerations, in Solvency II regulation the Standard formula furnished for calculating the Solvency Capital Requirement explicitly considers this kind of risk. According to the new European rules in our paper we suggest a multiperiod approach to evaluate the SCR for longevity risk. We propose a backtesting framework for measuring the consistency of SCR calculations for life insurance policies.

Direct multisearch for multiobjective optimization

In practical applications of optimization it is common to have several conflicting objective functions to optimize. Frequently, these functions are subject to noise or can be of black-box type, preventing the use of derivative-based techniques. We propose a novel multiobjective derivative-free methodology, calling it direct multisearch (DMS), which does not aggregate any of the objective functions. Our framework is inspired by the search/poll paradigm of direct-search methods of directional type and uses the concept of Pareto dominance to maintain a list of nondominated points (from which the new iterates or poll centers are chosen). The aim of our method is to generate as many points in the Pareto front as possible from the polling procedure itself, while keeping the whole framework general enough to accommodate other disseminating strategies, in particular, when using the (here also) optional search step. DMS generalizes to multiobjective optimization (MOO) all direct-search methods of directional type. We prove under the common assumptions used in direct search for single objective optimization that at least one limit point of the sequence of iterates generated by DMS lies in (a stationary form of) the Pareto front. However, extensive computational experience has shown that our methodology has an impressive capability of generating the whole Pareto front, even without using a search step. Two by-products of this paper are (i) the development of a collection of test problems for MOO and (ii) the extension of performance and data profiles to MOO, allowing a comparison of several solvers on a large set of test problems, in terms of their efficiency and robustness to determine Pareto fronts.

Constraint solving over multi-valued logics - application to digital circuits

Due to usage conditions, hazardous environments or intentional causes, physical and virtual systems are subject to faults in their components, which may affect their overall behaviour. In a ‘black-box’ agent modelled by a set of propositional logic rules, in which just a subset of components is externally visible, such faults may only be recognised by examining some output function of the agent. A (fault-free) model of the agent’s system provides the expected output given some input. If the real output differs from that predicted output, then the system is faulty. However, some faults may only become apparent in the system output when appropriate inputs are given. A number of problems regarding both testing and diagnosis thus arise, such as testing a fault, testing the whole system, finding possible faults and differentiating them to locate the correct one. The corresponding optimisation problems of finding solutions that require minimum resources are also very relevant in industry, as is minimal diagnosis. In this dissertation we use a well established set of benchmark circuits to address such diagnostic related problems and propose and develop models with different logics that we formalise and generalise as much as possible. We also prove that all techniques generalise to agents and to multiple faults. The developed multi-valued logics extend the usual Boolean logic (suitable for faultfree models) by encoding values with some dependency (usually on faults). Such logics thus allow modelling an arbitrary number of diagnostic theories. Each problem is subsequently solved with CLP solvers that we implement and discuss, together with a new efficient search technique that we present. We compare our results with other approaches such as SAT (that require substantial duplication of circuits), showing the effectiveness of constraints over multi-valued logics, and also the adequacy of a general set constraint solver (with special inferences over set functions such as cardinality) on other problems. In addition, for an optimisation problem, we integrate local search with a constructive approach (branch-and-bound) using a variety of logics to improve an existing efficient tool based on SAT and ILP.

Bond of NSM FRP strengthened concrete: round robin test initiative

Despite the extensive research that has been conducted on the debonding behaviour of FRP strengthening systems, no standard methodology has been yet established on its experimental characterization. In this context, to assess the performance and reliability of small scale testing on NSM (near surface mounted) FRP strengthening systems, an experimental program was carried out on a series of nine NSM FRP strengthening systems, in the framework of an international Round Robin Testing (RRT). Eleven laboratories and seven manufacturers and suppliers participated in this extensive international exercise, which regarded both NSM and EBR FRP strengthening systems. Test results obtained for the NSM systems by the participating laboratories are discussed and compared in this paper to investigate the feasibility of the adopted single/double pulling shear test method, to investigate the mechanism of bond between NSM FRP reinforcement and concrete, and to investigate the level of variability obtained between the participating laboratories testing the same material batches. It is concluded that the tested variants in the adopted single/double shear pulling test have a significant influence, stressing the importance of the level of detail of standardized test protocols for bond verification. On overall, given the variants included in this study, the obtained variation in bond stress-slip behaviour between the laboratories remained fairly limited.

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariableswith some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependenceof a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams mightbe a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects ifthe composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if theconventional, black-box ilr is used.Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set upappropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on theother side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations andscales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully-selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore,describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real,ratio or again compositional scales.This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very fewadvanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linearmodels, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariateanalysis

Methods for the analysis of two dimensional measurement data of paper web

This work is devoted to the problem of reconstructing the basis weight structure at paper web with black{box techniques. The data that is analyzed comes from a real paper machine and is collected by an o®-line scanner. The principal mathematical tool used in this work is Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) modelling. When coupled with the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), it gives a very flexible and interesting tool for analyzing properties of the paper web. Both ARMA and DFT are independently used to represent the given signal in a simplified version of our algorithm, but the final goal is to combine the two together. Ljung-Box Q-statistic lack-of-fit test combined with the Root Mean Squared Error coefficient gives a tool to separate significant signals from noise.

Software Test Process Development

In this thesis, the components important for testing work and organisational test process are identified and analysed. This work focuses on the testing activities in reallife software organisations, identifying the important test process components, observing testing work in practice, and analysing how the organisational test process could be developed. Software professionals from 14 different software organisations were interviewed to collect data on organisational test process and testing‐related factors. Moreover, additional data on organisational aspects was collected with a survey conducted on 31 organisations. This data was further analysed with the Grounded Theory method to identify the important test process components, and to observe how real‐life test organisations develop their testing activities. The results indicate that the test management at the project level is an important factor; the organisations do have sufficient test resources available, but they are not necessarily applied efficiently. In addition, organisations in general are reactive; they develop their process mainly to correct problems, not to enhance their efficiency or output quality. The results of this study allows organisations to have a better understanding of the test processes, and develop towards better practices and a culture of preventing problems, not reacting to them.

Test Campaign Parameter Editor for a Graphical TTCN-3 Development Environment

This paper presents the design for a graphical parameter editor for Testing and Test Control Notation 3 (TTCN-3) test suites. This work was done in the context of OpenTTCN IDE, a TTCN-3 development environment built on top of the Eclipse platform. The design presented relies on an additional parameter editing tab added to the launch configurations for test campaigns. This parameter editing tab shows the list of editable parameters and allows opening editing components for the different parameters. Each TTCN-3 primitive type will have a specific editing component providing tools to ease modification of values of that type.

Cost-benefit analysis of using test automation in the development of embedded software

The goal of this thesis is to make a case study of test automation’s profitability in the development of embedded software in a real industrial setting. The cost-benefit analysis is done by considering the costs and benefits test automation causes to software development, before the software is released to customers. The potential benefits of test automation regarding software quality after customer release were not estimated. Test automation is a significant investment which often requires dedicated resources. When done accordingly, the investment in test automation can produce major cost savings by reducing the need for manual testing effort, especially if the software is developed with an agile development framework. It can reduce the cost of avoidable rework of software development, as test automation enables the detection of construction time defects in the earliest possible moment. Test automation also has many pitfalls such as test maintainability and testability of the software, and if those areas are neglected, the investment in test automation may become worthless or it may even produce negative results. The results of this thesis suggest that test automation is very profitable at the company under study.

Mixing compositions and other scales

Theory of compositional data analysis is often focused on the composition only. However in practical applications we often treat a composition together with covariables with some other scale. This contribution systematically gathers and develop statistical tools for this situation. For instance, for the graphical display of the dependence of a composition with a categorical variable, a colored set of ternary diagrams might be a good idea for a first look at the data, but it will fast hide important aspects if the composition has many parts, or it takes extreme values. On the other hand colored scatterplots of ilr components could not be very instructive for the analyst, if the conventional, black-box ilr is used. Thinking on terms of the Euclidean structure of the simplex, we suggest to set up appropriate projections, which on one side show the compositional geometry and on the other side are still comprehensible by a non-expert analyst, readable for all locations and scales of the data. This is e.g. done by defining special balance displays with carefully- selected axes. Following this idea, we need to systematically ask how to display, explore, describe, and test the relation to complementary or explanatory data of categorical, real, ratio or again compositional scales. This contribution shows that it is sufficient to use some basic concepts and very few advanced tools from multivariate statistics (principal covariances, multivariate linear models, trellis or parallel plots, etc.) to build appropriate procedures for all these combinations of scales. This has some fundamental implications in their software implementation, and how might they be taught to analysts not already experts in multivariate analysis

Black Boxes and Abstraction or A quick run through how computers work

How we get from transistors through to logic gates to ALUs and memory to the stored program and the fetch execute cycle through to machine code and high level languages. Inspired by Tanenbaum's approach in "Structured Computer Organozation"

A testing and demonstration facility for PV systems and components

A test and demonstration facility for PV and PV hybrid systems and system components has been designed and installed at Dalarna University in Sweden. The facility allows studies of complete PV systems or single components in a range of 0.1-10 kW. The facility includes two grid-connected PV systems, a PV Hybrid off-grid system, three emulators and the necessary measurement and control equipment. Tests can be done manually or automatically through programmed test procedures controlled that will be implemented in Labview. The facility shall be used by researchers, professionals of the industry and engineering students.

Identification of structural damage in flexible structures using system norm and neural networks

Nowadays there is great interest in damage identification using non destructive tests. Predictive maintenance is one of the most important techniques that are based on analysis of vibrations and it consists basically of monitoring the condition of structures or machines. A complete procedure should be able to detect the damage, to foresee the probable time of occurrence and to diagnosis the type of fault in order to plan the maintenance operation in a convenient form and occasion. In practical problems, it is frequent the necessity of getting the solution of non linear equations. These processes have been studied for a long time due to its great utility. Among the methods, there are different approaches, as for instance numerical methods (classic), intelligent methods (artificial neural networks), evolutions methods (genetic algorithms), and others. The characterization of damages, for better agreement, can be classified by levels. A new one uses seven levels of classification: detect the existence of the damage; detect and locate the damage; detect, locate and quantify the damages; predict the equipment's working life; auto-diagnoses; control for auto structural repair; and system of simultaneous control and monitoring. The neural networks are computational models or systems for information processing that, in a general way, can be thought as a device black box that accepts an input and produces an output. Artificial neural nets (ANN) are based on the biological neural nets and possess habilities for identification of functions and classification of standards. In this paper a methodology for structural damages location is presented. This procedure can be divided on two phases. The first one uses norms of systems to localize the damage positions. The second one uses ANN to quantify the severity of the damage. The paper concludes with a numerical application in a beam like structure with five cases of structural damages with different levels of severities. The results show the applicability of the presented methodology. A great advantage is the possibility of to apply this approach for identification of simultaneous damages.

Implementing Human Papillomavirus Testing in a Public Health Hospital: Challenges and Opportunities

Objectives: Robust evidence now supports human papillomavirus (HPV) testing as a more effective option to screening and as more sensitive than cytology in detecting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. Our goal was to analyze the performance of the Hybrid Capture II (HC2) assay for high-risk HPV (hrHPV) in women undergoing gynecological examination at a public health hospital as part of the evaluation of HPV screening as an alternative or complement to cytology. Study Design: This analysis is a subset of a cross-sectional study carried out at a large public hospital serving a predominantly low-resource population. A total of 705 women were enrolled; the sensitivity and specificity of each test were estimated and compared. Results: The analysis identified 272 hrHPV-positive women (mean age 36.3 years) and 433 hrHPV-negative women (mean age 41.2 years). HPV testing showed a significantly increased sensitivity of the HC2 assay versus cytology (84.5 vs. 69.7%; p < 0.0001) but a lower specificity (49.90 vs. 88.78%; p < 0.0001). Conclusion: The combination of both methods seems to be useful in improving detection of cervical lesions. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Interactive theorem provers: issues faced as a user and tackled as a developer

Interactive theorem provers (ITP for short) are tools whose final aim is to certify proofs written by human beings. To reach that objective they have to fill the gap between the high level language used by humans for communicating and reasoning about mathematics and the lower level language that a machine is able to “understand” and process. The user perceives this gap in terms of missing features or inefficiencies. The developer tries to accommodate the user requests without increasing the already high complexity of these applications. We believe that satisfactory solutions can only come from a strong synergy between users and developers. We devoted most part of our PHD designing and developing the Matita interactive theorem prover. The software was born in the computer science department of the University of Bologna as the result of composing together all the technologies developed by the HELM team (to which we belong) for the MoWGLI project. The MoWGLI project aimed at giving accessibility through the web to the libraries of formalised mathematics of various interactive theorem provers, taking Coq as the main test case. The motivations for giving life to a new ITP are: • study the architecture of these tools, with the aim of understanding the source of their complexity • exploit such a knowledge to experiment new solutions that, for backward compatibility reasons, would be hard (if not impossible) to test on a widely used system like Coq. Matita is based on the Curry-Howard isomorphism, adopting the Calculus of Inductive Constructions (CIC) as its logical foundation. Proof objects are thus, at some extent, compatible with the ones produced with the Coq ITP, that is itself able to import and process the ones generated using Matita. Although the systems have a lot in common, they share no code at all, and even most of the algorithmic solutions are different. The thesis is composed of two parts where we respectively describe our experience as a user and a developer of interactive provers. In particular, the first part is based on two different formalisation experiences: • our internship in the Mathematical Components team (INRIA), that is formalising the finite group theory required to attack the Feit Thompson Theorem. To tackle this result, giving an effective classification of finite groups of odd order, the team adopts the SSReflect Coq extension, developed by Georges Gonthier for the proof of the four colours theorem. • our collaboration at the D.A.M.A. Project, whose goal is the formalisation of abstract measure theory in Matita leading to a constructive proof of Lebesgue’s Dominated Convergence Theorem. The most notable issues we faced, analysed in this part of the thesis, are the following: the difficulties arising when using “black box” automation in large formalisations; the impossibility for a user (especially a newcomer) to master the context of a library of already formalised results; the uncomfortable big step execution of proof commands historically adopted in ITPs; the difficult encoding of mathematical structures with a notion of inheritance in a type theory without subtyping like CIC. In the second part of the manuscript many of these issues will be analysed with the looking glasses of an ITP developer, describing the solutions we adopted in the implementation of Matita to solve these problems: integrated searching facilities to assist the user in handling large libraries of formalised results; a small step execution semantic for proof commands; a flexible implementation of coercive subtyping allowing multiple inheritance with shared substructures; automatic tactics, integrated with the searching facilities, that generates proof commands (and not only proof objects, usually kept hidden to the user) one of which specifically designed to be user driven.