A simple model of multiple equilibria and default. CEPS Working Document No. 366, 16 July 2012

This Working Document by Daniel Gros presents a simple model that incorporates two types of sovereign default cost: first, a lump-sum cost due to the fact that the country does not service its debt fully and is recognised as being in default status, by ratings agencies, for example. Second, a cost that increases with the size of the losses (or haircut) imposed on creditors whose resistance to a haircut increases with the proportional loss inflicted upon them. One immediate implication of the model is that under some circumstances the creditors have a (collective) interest to forgive some debt in order to induce the country not to default. The model exhibits a potential for multiple equilibria, given that a higher interest rate charged by investors increases the debt service burden and thus the temptation to default. Under very high debt levels credit rationing can set in as the feedback loop between higher interest rates and the higher incentive to default can become explosive. The introduction of uncertainty makes multiple equilibria less likely and reduces their range.

Predicting feed quality - chemical analysis and in vitro evaluation

As the ideal method of assessing the nutritive value of a feedstuff, namely offering it to the appropriate class of animal and recording the production response obtained, is neither practical nor cost effective a range of feed evaluation techniques have been developed. Each of these balances some degree of compromise with the practical situation against data generation. However, due to the impact of animal-feed interactions over and above that of feed composition, the target animal remains the ultimate arbitrator of nutritional value. In this review current in vitro feed evaluation techniques are examined according to the degree of animal-feed interaction. Chemical analysis provides absolute values and therefore differs from the majority of in vitro methods that simply rank feeds. However, with no host animal involvement, estimates of nutritional value are inferred by statistical association. In addition given the costs involved, the practical value of many analyses conducted should be reviewed. The in sacco technique has made a substantial contribution to both understanding rumen microbial degradative processes and the rapid evaluation of feeds, especially in developing countries. However, the numerous shortfalls of the technique, common to many in vitro methods, the desire to eliminate the use of surgically modified animals for routine feed evaluation, paralleled with improvements in in vitro techniques, will see this technique increasingly replaced. The majority of in vitro systems use substrate disappearance to assess degradation, however, this provides no information regarding the quantity of derived end-products available to the host animal. As measurement of volatile fatty acids or microbial biomass production greatly increases analytical costs, fermentation gas release, a simple and non-destructive measurement, has been used as an alternative. However, as gas release alone is of little use, gas-based systems, where both degradation and fermentation gas release are measured simultaneously, are attracting considerable interest. Alternative microbial inocula are being considered, as is the potential of using multi-enzyme systems to examine degradation dynamics. It is concluded that while chemical analysis will continue to form an indispensable part of feed evaluation, enhanced use will be made of increasingly complex in vitro systems. It is vital, however, the function and limitations of each methodology are fully understood and that the temptation to over-interpret the data is avoided so as to draw the appropriate conclusions. With careful selection and correct application in vitro systems offer powerful research tools with which to evaluate feedstuffs. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Attitudinal and demographic determinants of diet quality and implications for policy targeting

Background:  Poor diet quality is a major public health concern that has prompted governments to introduce a range of measures to promote healthy eating. For these measures to be effective, they should target segments of the population with messages relevant to their needs, aspirations and circumstances. The present study investigates the extent to which attitudes and constraints influence healthy eating, as well as how these vary by demographic characteristics of the UK population. It further considers how such information may be used in segmented diet and health policy messages. Methods:  A survey of 250 UK adults elicited information on conformity to dietary guidelines, attitudes towards healthy eating, constraints to healthy eating and demographic characteristics. Ordered logit regressions were estimated to determine the importance of attitudes and constraints in determining how closely respondents follow healthy eating guidelines. Further regressions explored the demographic characteristics associated with the attitudinal and constraint variables. Results:  People who attach high importance to their own health and appearance eat more healthily than those who do not. Risk-averse people and those able to resist temptation also eat more healthily. Shortage of time is considered an important barrier to healthy eating, although the cost of a healthy diet is not. These variables are associated with a number of demographic characteristics of the population; for example, young adults are more motivated to eat healthily by concerns over their appearance than their health. Conclusions:  The approach employed in the present study could be used to inform future healthy eating campaigns. For example, messages to encourage the young to eat more healthily could focus on the impact of diets on their appearance rather than health.

Sexuality in older age: essential considerations for healthcare professionals

This review describes the fact that many elderly people enjoy an active sex life and examines the evidence against the general perception of an 'asexual' old age. It offers an overview of the evidence for healthcare professionals who had not previously considered the sexuality of their older patients. It also describes some of the sexual problems faced by older people, especially the difficulties experienced in disclosing such problems to healthcare professionals. It examines why healthcare professionals routinely avoid discussing sexual problems with older patients, and how this can be improved. It also offers some recommendations for future research in the area, as well as a word of caution regarding the temptation of over-sexualising the ageing process.

'Eden Cinema' by Marguerite Duras

Duras’s theatre work has been profoundly neglected by UK theatre academics and practitioners, and Eden Cinema has almost no performance history in Britain. My project asked three interconnected research questions: how developing the performance contributes to understanding Duras’s theatre and specifically Eden Cinema’s problems of performability; how multimedia performance emphasising mediated sound and the live body reconfigures memory, autobiography, storytelling, gender and racial identity; how to locate a performance style appropriate for Durasian narratives of displacement and death which reflect the discontinuous and mutable form of Duras’s ‘texte/film/théâtre’. Drawing on my research interests in gender, post-colonial hybridity and performed deconstruction, I focused my staging decisions on the discontinuities and ambivalences of the text. I addressed performability by avoiding the temptation to resolve the strange ellipses in the text and instead evoked the text’s imperfect and fragmented memories, and its uncertain spatial and temporal locations, by means of a fluid theatrical form. The mise-en-scène represented imagined and remembered spaces simultaneously, and co-existing historical moments. The performance style counterpointed live and mediated action and audio-visual forms. A complex through-composed soundscape, comprising voice-over, sound and music, became a key means for evoking overlapping temporalities, interconnected narratives and fragmented memories that were dispersed across the performance. The disempowerment of the mother figure and the silent indigenous servant in the text was demonstrated through their spatial centrality but physical stillness. The servant’s colonial subaltern identity was paralleled and linked with the mother’s disenfranchisement through their proxemic relationships. I elicited a performance style which evoked ‘characters’, whose being was deferred across different regimes of reality and who ‘haunted’ the stage rather than inhabited it. I developed the project further in the additional written outcomes and presentations, and the subsequent performance of Savannah Bay where problems of performability intensify until embodiment is almost erased except via voice.

Reproduction of Cichla kelberi Kullander and Ferreira, 2006 introduced into an artificial lake in southeastern Brazil

O objetivo do estudo foi caracterizar a reprodução de Cichla kelberi em um lago artificial no município de Leme, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil. A época reprodutiva ocorreu na primavera e verão. O L50 e o L100 desta espécie foram de 192 e 235 mm (L50) para machos e fêmeas, respectivamente e 290 mm (L100) para ambos os sexos. A desova foi do tipo parcelado. O tamanho dos ovócitos maduros foi de 428,4 µm, atingindo o máximo em 2.203,2 µm. A média da fecundidade foi de 12.129,2 ovócitos com média de cada desova de 4.897,7 ovócitos. Esta espécie adequou-se à definição de peixes com fecundação externa, não migradoras e com cuidado parental da prole. Os atributos para a introdução dos tucunarés podem ser tentadores. Porém, suas características reprodutivas e alimentares fazem com que não existam competidores ou predadores naturais e, assim, a sua expansão populacional seja de difícil controle e erradicação.

As estratégias discursivas da comunicação dirigida em pontos de venda do HSBC

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estetica ed etica: un itinerario interpretativo, alla luce della ricerca di valori nel pensiero di Ingarden, Tischner, Levinas

The research is an itinerary from the discovery of the force of Love in the Song of Songs, where the human figure is given entirely through aesthetics, right to the agony of the other's death, where ethics, the "Severe Name of Love", is the only guard left; a journey through the contradictions of human mind, that, though aiming at Good, Beauty, Happiness, is completely immersed into the darkness of its finiteness and into evil. The consciousness leads to the creation of a world whose essential prefiguration is the Beauty; whose fundamental expression is the Good. Ethics must translate itself in responsability towards the other, in the history. This immersion into reality preserves the aesthetic and ethic dimension from the temptation of absolutizing the finite. In this work, the proximity and divergence between the aesthetic and ethic dimension is analysed, with reference to significant moments of the philosophical reflection, namely in the thought of Ingarden, Tishner and Levinas.

Traduzione del primo canto dell'inferno dantesco in arabo

In this thesis, I have chosen to translate from Italian into Arabic Canto I of the Inferno, from Dante Alighieri’s epic poem the Divine Comedy (La Divina Commedia) because it’s a masterpiece in both Italian and world literature. Also I have selected it for its artistic value and the universal themes that it depicts. In fact, my purpose in translating this great work into Arabic is to extol the cultural and universal aspects that can be common to human beings everywhere. My paper is written in Arabic and has six sections: A brief introduction on Dante’s life, an introduction to the Divine Comedy, a summary of Canto 1 of the Inferno and its analysis, Canto I of the Inferno in Italian, its translation into Arabic and finally a comment on the translation. The first part -a summary of Dante’s life was presented. The second part of my paper is an introduction to the Divine Comedy, the allegorical epic poem, consisting of three parts: The Inferno (Hell), Purgatorio (Purgatory), and Paradiso (Paradise). The third part is a summary and analysis of Canto 1 of the Inferno, Dante’s most renowned verses. The analysis of Canto highlights the everlasting conflict of man– sinning and giving in to temptation but then trying to repent and search for his soul’s salvation. He reflects on sin, existence, truth, God, love and salvation in his struggle through the dark and gloomy forest which symbolizes conflict and temptations man may succumb to. The influence of Christianity and the Middle ages here shows his commitment to religion and faith. Moreover, his meeting of Virgil, who guides him to the mountain during his journey to salvation, reflects the positive impact of Virgil’s philosophy on Dante. The fourth part presents the Italian version of Canto 1 of the Inferno. The fifth section of my paper is the translation of Canto 1 of the Inferno from Italian to Arabic. Translating an excerpt of Dante’s masterpiece was not an easy task: I had to consult several critique texts besides the Italian source text with explanations, and also some English versions to overcome any translation difficulties. As a student of translation, my goal was to be faithful in relaying to the Arabic audience the authenticity of Dante’s work, his themes, passions and aesthetic style. Finally, I present a conclusion including a comment on the translation and the bibliography of the sources I have consulted.

Book Review of “Indigenous Social Work around the World. Towards Culturally Relevant Education and Practice”, 2008, edited by Mel Gray, John Coates and Michael Yellow Bird

One could be seduced into a critique of this volume that focuses on its potential to overstate the momentum for a shift in Western social work ideology when faced with the conundrum of cultural difference. One could posit that the discussion is too broad, the topics covered too numerous, the opportunity for detail missed, the urgency of the messages unnecessarily exaggerated, the “proof” not beyond anecdote and so forth. I reject this temptation to conform to the dominant professional dynamic most emphatically and offer that what Gray, Coates and Yellow Bird have presented to the social work field in this volume is the first tangible step towards an alternative paradigm for an occupation afflicted with unsustainable hypocrisy and thus at the brink of irrelevancy.

Distinct coping strategies differentially predict urge levels and lapses in a smoking cessation attempt

This study analysed mechanisms through which stress-coping and temptation-coping strategies were associated with lapses. Furthermore, we explored whether distinct coping strategies differentially predicted reduced lapse risk, lower urge levels, or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses during the first week of an unassisted smoking cessation attempt. Participants were recruited via the internet and mass media in Switzerland. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) with mobile devices was used to assess urge levels and lapses. Online questionnaires were used to measure smoking behaviours and coping variables at baseline, as well as smoking behaviour at the three-month follow-up. The sample consisted of 243 individuals, aged 20 to 40, who reported 4199 observations. Findings of multilevel regression analyses show that coping was mainly associated with a reduced lapse risk and not with lower urge levels or a weaker association between urge levels and lapses. 'Calming down' and 'commitment to change' predicted a lower lapse risk and also a weaker relation between urge levels and lapses. 'Stimulus control' predicted a lower lapse risk and lower urge levels. Conversely, 'task-orientation' and 'risk assessment' were related to higher lapse risk and 'risk assessment' also to higher urge levels. Disengagement coping i.e. 'eating or shopping', 'distraction', and 'mobilising social support' did not affect lapse risk. Promising coping strategies during the initial stage of smoking cessation attempt are targeted directly at reducing the lapse risk and are characterised by engagement with the stressor or one's reactions towards the stressor and a focus on positive consequences instead of health risks.

Psychiatric severity and behavior change in alcoholism

Individuals who are diagnosed with a chronic mental illness and an alcohol use disorder comprise a high risk population that challenges the mental health care system. Effective treatment for the dually diagnosed, who are characterized by heterogeneity in their psychiatric diagnoses, their substance use patterns, and their current degree of dysfunction, presents a challenge. Several integrated treatment models have been developed that attempt to concurrently treat patients' psychiatric and substance abuse problems. At this point in the development of these "dual diagnosis" programs, treatment planning is hindered by a lack of knowledge about the relation of psychiatric severity to the process of recovery from alcohol abuse and dependence.^ The present study sought to advance the field's understanding of the relation between psychiatric severity and the process of behavior change through an examination of the relation between dimensions of psychiatric severity and Prochaska and DiClemente's Transtheoretical Model (TTM) constructs. The TTM, which focuses on identifying the processes of change that appear to underlie the modification of addictive behaviors, provides a way of conceptualizing and measuring specific elements relevant to the desired behavior change. Knowledge of the relation between these constructs and psychiatric severity will enable treatment planners to develop dual diagnosis programs which target clients' needs with a much higher level of specificity.^ One hundred-thirty two alcohol dependent patients in a dual diagnosis treatment program were assessed on psychiatric severity (defined as number of symptoms and level of distress resulting from symptoms) and the Transtheoretical Model constructs. The constructs include stages and processes of change for alcohol use, alcohol decisional balance, and alcohol abstinence self-efficacy. Results indicate that the TTM variable of "temptation to drink" is most strongly related to psychiatric severity: the more psychiatric distress a person is experiencing, the more he or she is tempted to drink. The "cons" of drinking were also related to psychiatric severity, indicating that participants who were experiencing more psychiatric distress also endorsed as important a higher number of the negative aspects of drinking.^ Additional aims of this investigation were to determine whether participants' scores on the Transtheoretical Model variables were associated with their: (a) severity of drinking, defined as frequency, quantity and consequences of use, (b) previous psychiatric and substance abuse treatment episodes, and (c) functional impairment. Associations were found among these variables and each of the key constructs of the Transtheoretical Model. Each association is explored in detail and implications for treatment programming are discussed. ^

Disrupting the prefrontal cortex diminishes the human ability to build a good reputation.

Reputation formation pervades human social life. In fact, many people go to great lengths to acquire a good reputation, even though building a good reputation is costly in many cases. Little is known about the neural underpinnings of this important social mechanism, however. In the present study, we show that disruption of the right, but not the left, lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) with low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) diminishes subjects' ability to build a favorable reputation. This effect occurs even though subjects' ability to behave altruistically in the absence of reputation incentives remains intact, and even though they are still able to recognize both the fairness standards necessary for acquiring and the future benefits of a good reputation. Thus, subjects with a disrupted right lateral PFC no longer seem to be able to resist the temptation to defect, even though they know that this has detrimental effects on their future reputation. This suggests an important dissociation between the knowledge about one's own best interests and the ability to act accordingly in social contexts. These results link findings on the neural underpinnings of self-control and temptation with the study of human social behavior, and they may help explain why reputation formation remains less prominent in most other species with less developed prefrontal cortices.

Resisting the power of temptations: the right prefrontal cortex and self-control.

Imagine you are overweight and you spot your favorite pastry in the storefront of a bakery. How do you manage to resist this temptation? Or to give other examples, how do you manage to restrain yourself from overspending or succumbing to sexual temptations? The present article summarizes two recent studies stressing the fundamental importance of inhibition in the process of decision making. Based on the results of these studies, we dare to claim that the capacity to resist temptation depends on the activity level of the right prefrontal cortex (PFC).

Diminishing reciprocal fairness by disrupting the right prefrontal cortex.

Humans restrain self-interest with moral and social values. They are the only species known to exhibit reciprocal fairness, which implies the punishment of other individuals' unfair behaviors, even if it hurts the punisher's economic self-interest. Reciprocal fairness has been demonstrated in the Ultimatum Game, where players often reject their bargaining partner's unfair offers. Despite progress in recent years, however, little is known about how the human brain limits the impact of selfish motives and implements fair behavior. Here we show that disruption of the right, but not the left, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) by low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation substantially reduces subjects' willingness to reject their partners' intentionally unfair offers, which suggests that subjects are less able to resist the economic temptation to accept these offers. Importantly, however, subjects still judge such offers as very unfair, which indicates that the right DLPFC plays a key role in the implementation of fairness-related behaviors.