The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming.

Evidence for changes in stratospheric transport and mixing over the past three decades based on multiple data sets and tropical leaky pipe analysis

Variability in the strength of the stratospheric Lagrangian mean meridional or Brewer-Dobson circulation and horizontal mixing into the tropics over the past three decades are examined using observations of stratospheric mean age of air and ozone. We use a simple representation of the stratosphere, the tropical leaky pipe (TLP) model, guided by mean meridional circulation and horizontal mixing changes in several reanalyses data sets and chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations, to help elucidate reasons for the observed changes in stratospheric mean age and ozone. We find that the TLP model is able to accurately simulate multiyear variability in ozone following recent major volcanic eruptions and the early 2000s sea surface temperature changes, as well as the lasting impact on mean age of relatively short-term circulation perturbations. We also find that the best quantitative agreement with the observed mean age and ozone trends over the past three decades is found assuming a small strengthening of the mean circulation in the lower stratosphere, a moderate weakening of the mean circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere, and a moderate increase in the horizontal mixing into the tropics. The mean age trends are strongly sensitive to trends in the horizontal mixing into the tropics, and the uncertainty in the mixing trends causes uncertainty in the mean circulation trends. Comparisons of the mean circulation and mixing changes suggested by the measurements with those from a recent suite of CCM runs reveal significant differences that may have important implications on the accurate simulation of future stratospheric climate.

Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: an analysis of CMIP5 simulations

We investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5%/°C and 3%/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this “rich get richer” syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold-climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM.

Deriving a sea surface temperature record suitable for climate change research from the along-track scanning radiometers

We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991–2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade−1, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.

Direct soil moisture controls of future global soil carbon changes: An important source of uncertainty

The nature of the climate–carbon cycle feedback depends critically on the response of soil carbon to climate, including changes in moisture. However, soil moisture–carbon feedback responses have not been investigated thoroughly. Uncertainty in the response of soil carbon to soil moisture changes could arise from uncertainty in the relationship between soil moisture and heterotrophic respiration. We used twelve soil moisture–respiration functions (SMRFs) with a soil carbon model (RothC) and data from a coupled climate–carbon cycle general circulation model to investigate the impact of direct heterotrophic respiration dependence on soil moisture on the climate carbon cycle feedback. Global changes in soil moisture acted to oppose temperature‐driven decreases in soil carbon and hence tended to increase soil carbon storage. We found considerable uncertainty in soil carbon changes due to the response of soil respiration to soil moisture. The use of different SMRFs resulted in both large losses and small gains in future global soil carbon stocks, whether considering all climate forcings or only moisture changes. Regionally, the greatest range in soil carbon changes across SMRFs was found where the largest soil carbon changes occurred. Further research is needed to constrain the soil moisture–respiration relationship and thus reduce uncertainty in climate–carbon cycle feedbacks. There may also be considerable uncertainty in the regional responses of soil carbon to soil moisture changes since climate model predictions of regional soil moisture changes are less coherent than temperature changes.

Energy-balance mechanisms underlying consistent large-scale temperature responses in warm and cold climates

Climate simulations show consistent large-scale temperature responses including amplified land–ocean contrast, high-latitude/low-latitude contrast, and changes in seasonality in response to year-round forcing, in both warm and cold climates, and these responses are proportional and nearly linear across multiple climate states. We examine the possibility that a small set of common mechanisms controls these large-scale responses using a simple energy-balance model to decompose the temperature changes shown in multiple lgm and abrupt4 × CO 2 simulations from the CMIP5 archive. Changes in the individual components of the energy balance are broadly consistent across the models. Although several components are involved in the overall temperature responses, surface downward clear-sky longwave radiation is the most important component driving land–ocean contrast and high-latitude amplification in both warm and cold climates. Surface albedo also plays a significant role in promoting high-latitude amplification in both climates and in intensifying the land–ocean contrast in the warm climate case. The change in seasonality is a consequence of the changes in land–ocean and high-latitude/low-latitude contrasts rather than an independent temperature response. This is borne out by the fact that no single component stands out as being the major cause of the change in seasonality, and the relative importance of individual components is different in cold and warm climates.

A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.

Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

Understanding how the emergence of the anthropogenic warming signal from the noise of internal variability translates to changes in extreme event occurrence is of crucial societal importance. By utilising simulations of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and temperature changes from eleven earth system models, we demonstrate that the inherently lower internal variability found at tropical latitudes results in large increases in the frequency of extreme daily temperatures (exceedances of the 99.9th percentile derived from pre-industrial climate simulations) occurring much earlier than for mid-to-high latitude regions. Most of the world's poorest people live at low latitudes, when considering 2010 GDP-PPP per capita; conversely the wealthiest population quintile disproportionately inhabit more variable mid-latitude climates. Consequently, the fraction of the global population in the lowest socio-economic quintile is exposed to substantially more frequent daily temperature extremes after much lower increases in both mean global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions.

In vitro analysis of human tooth pulp chamber temperature after low-intensity laser therapy at different power outputs

In vitro studies have provided conflicting evidence of temperature changes in the tooth pulp chamber after low-level laser irradiation of the tooth surface. The present study was an in vitro evaluation of temperature increases in the human tooth pulp chamber after diode laser irradiation (GaAlAs, lambda = 808 nm) using different power densities. Twelve human teeth (three incisors, three canines, three premolars and three molars) were sectioned in the cervical third of the root and enlarged for the introduction of a thermocouple into the pulp chamber. The teeth were irradiated with 417 mW, 207 mW and 78 mW power outputs for 30 s on the vestibular surface approximately 2 mm from the cervical line of the crown. The highest average increase in temperature (5.6A degrees C) was observed in incisors irradiated with 417 mW. None of the teeth (incisors, canines, premolars or molars) irradiated with 207 mW showed temperature increases higher than 5.5A degrees C that could potentially be harmful to pulp tissue. Teeth irradiated with 78 mW showed lower temperature increases. The study showed that diode laser irradiation with a wavelength of 808 nm at 417 mW power output increased the pulp chamber temperature of certain groups of teeth, especially incisors and premolars, to critical threshold values for the dental pulp (5.5A degrees C). Thus, this study serves as a warning to clinicians that ""more"" is not necessarily ""better"".

Characterization of Caulobacter crescentus response to low temperature and identification of genes involved in freezing resistance

Free-living bacteria must respond to a wide range of temperature changes, and have developed specific mechanisms to survive in extreme environments. In this work we describe a remarkable resistance of mesophilic bacterium Caulobacter crescentus to several cycles of freezing at -80 degrees C, which was able to grow at low temperatures. Exponentially growing cells and late stationary-phase cells presented higher freezing resistance at both -20 and -80 degrees C than early stationary-phase cells. Cryotolerance was observed when log-phase cultures grown at 30 degrees C were preincubated at 5, 15 or 20 degrees C before freezing at -20 degrees C. A transposon library was screened to identify mutants sensitive to freezing at -80 degrees C and three strains presenting < 10% survival were isolated. Identification of genes disrupted in each mutant showed that they encoded an AddA family DNA helicase, a DEAD/DEAH box RNA helicase and a putative RND (resistance, nodulation, cell division) efflux system component. These strains showed longer generation times than wild-type cells when growing at 15 degrees C, with the RNA helicase mutant presenting a severe growth defect. These analyses suggest that the singular intrinsic resistance to freezing of C. crescentus is in fact a consequence of several independent traits, especially the maintenance of a proper degree of supercoiling of nucleic acids.

Exercise-associated thermographic changes in young and elderly subjects

This study aimed at evaluating the thermographic changes associated with localized exercise in young and elderly subjects. An exercise protocol using 1 kg load was applied during 3 min to the knee flexors of 14 elderly (67 +/- 5 years) and 15 young (23 +/- 2 years) healthy subjects. The posterior thigh`s skin temperature of the exercised limb and contralateral limb were measured by infrared thermography on pre-exercise, immediately post-exercise, and during the 10-min period post-exercise. Difference (p < 0.01) between elderly and young subjects was observed on pre-exercise temperature. Although differences were not observed between pre-exercise and immediately post-exercise temperature in the exercised limb, thermographic profile displayed heat concentration in exercised areas for both groups. Temperature reduction was only observed for the young group on the 10-min post-exercise (p < 0.05) in the exercised limb (30.7 +/- 1.7 to 30.3 +/- 1.5 degrees C). In contrast, there was a temperature reduction post-exercise (p < 0.01) in the contralateral limb for both groups. These results present new evidences that elderly and young subjects display similar capacity of heat production; however, the elderly subjects presented a lower resting temperature and slower heat dissipation. This work contributes to improve the understanding about temperature changes in elderly subjects and may present implications to the sports and rehabilitation programs.

Temperature (over) compensation in an oscillatory surface reaction

Biological rhythms are regulated by homeostatic mechanisms that assure that physiological clocks function reliably independent of temperature changes in the environment. Temperature compensation, the independence of the oscillatory period on temperature, is known to play a central role in many biological rhythms, but it is rather rare in chemical oscillators. We study the influence of temperature on the oscillatory dynamics during the catalytic oxidation of formic acid on a polycrystalline platinum electrode. The experiments are performed at five temperatures from 5 to 25 degrees C, and the oscillations are studied under galvanostatic control. Under oscillatory conditions, only non-Arrhenius behavior is observed. Overcompensation with temperature coefficient (q(10), defined as the ratio between the rate constants at temperature T + 10 degrees C and at T) < I is found in most cases, except that temperature compensation with q(10) approximate to I predominates at high applied currents. The behavior of the period and the amplitude result from a complex interplay between temperature and applied current or, equivalently, the distance from thermodynamic equilibrium. High, positive apparent activation energies were obtained under voltammetric, nonoscillatory conditions, which implies that the non-Arrhenius behavior observed under oscillatory conditions results from the interplay among reaction steps rather than, from a weak temperature dependence of the individual steps.

Effects of intrapulpal temperature change induced by visible light units on the metabolism of odontoblast-like cells

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Photosynthetic responses to temperature in tropical lotic macroalgae

A comparative analysis of the photosynthetic responses to temperature (10-30°C) was carried out under short-term laboratory conditions by chlorophyll fluorescence and oxygen (O2) evolution. Ten lotic macroalgal species from southeastern Brazil (20°11-20°48′S, 49°18-49°41′W) were tested, including Bacillariophyta, Chlorophyta, Cyanophyta, Rhodophyta and Xanthophyta. Temperature had significant effects on electron transport rate (ETR) only for three species (Terpsinoe musica, Bacillariophyta; Cladophora glomerata, Chlorophyta; and C. coeruleus, Rhodophyta), with highest values at 25-30°C, whereas the remaining species had no significant responses. It also had similar effects on non-photochemical quenching and ETR. Differences in net photosynthesis/dark respiration ratios at distinct temperatures were found, with an increasing trend of respiration with higher temperatures. This implies in a decreasing balance between net primary production and temperature, representing more critical conditions toward higher temperatures for most species. In contrast, high net photosynthesis and photosynthesis/dark respiration ratios at high and wide ranges of temperature were found in three species of green algae, suggesting that these algae can be important primary producers in lotic ecosystems, particularly in tropical regions. Optimal photosynthetic rates were observed under similar environmental temperatures for five species (two rhodophytes, two chlorophytes and one diatom) considering both techniques, suggesting acclimation to their respective ambient temperatures. C. coeruleus was the only species with peaks of ETR and O 2 evolution under similar field-measured temperatures. All species kept values of ETR and net photosynthesis close to the optimum under a broad range of temperatures. Increased non-photochemical quenching, as a measure of thermal dissipation of excess energy, toward higher temperatures was observed in some species, as well as positive correlation of non-photochemical quenching with ETR, and were interpreted as two mechanisms of adaptation of the photosynthetic apparatus to temperature changes. Different optimal temperatures were found for individual species by each technique, generally under lower temperatures by O2 evolution, indicating dependence on distinct factors: increases in temperature generally induced higher ETR due to increased enzymatic activity, whereas increments of enzymatic activity were compensated by increased respiration and photorespiration leading to decreases in net photosynthesis.

Temperature analysis during bonding of brackets using LED or halogen light base units

The purpose of our investigation is to compare the intrapulpal temperature changes following blue LED system and halogen lamp irradiation at the enamel surface of permanent teeth. The fixation of brackets using composite resin is more comfortable and faster when using a photo-curable composite. Several light sources can be used: halogens, arc plasma, lasers, and recently blue LED systems. An important aspect to be observed during such a procedures is the temperature change. In this study, we have used nine human extracted permanent teeth: three central incisors, three lateral incisors, and three canines. Teeth were exposed to two light sources: blue LED system (preliminary commercial model LEC 470-II) and halogen lamp (conventional photo-cure equipment). The surface of teeth was exposed for 20, 40, and 60 sec at the buccal and lingual enamel surface with an angle of 45 degrees. Temperature values measured by a thermistor placed at pulpar chamber were read in time intervals of 1 sec. We obtained plots showing the temperature evolution as a function of time for each experiment. There is a correlation between heating quantity and exposition time of light source: with increasing exposition time, heating increases into the pulpal chamber. The halogen lamp showed higher heating than the LED system, which showed a shorter time of cooling than halogen lamp. The blue LED system seems like the indicated light source for photo-cure of composite resin during the bonding of brackets. The fixation of brackets using composite resin is more comfortable and faster when using a photo-curable composite. Blue LED equipment did not heat during its use. This could permit a shorter clinical time of operation and better performance. © Mary Ann Liebert, Inc.