The application of agricultural land rating and crop models to CO2 and climate change issues in Northern regions : the Mackenzie Basin case study

Selostus: Viljelyvyöhykkeiden ja kasvumallien soveltaminen ilmastonmuutoksen tutkimisessa: Mackenzien jokialue, Kanada

Evaluation of statistical and geostatistical models of digital soil properties mapping in tropical mountain regions

Soil properties have an enormous impact on economic and environmental aspects of agricultural production. Quantitative relationships between soil properties and the factors that influence their variability are the basis of digital soil mapping. The predictive models of soil properties evaluated in this work are statistical (multiple linear regression-MLR) and geostatistical (ordinary kriging and co-kriging). The study was conducted in the municipality of Bom Jardim, RJ, using a soil database with 208 sampling points. Predictive models were evaluated for sand, silt and clay fractions, pH in water and organic carbon at six depths according to the specifications of the consortium of digital soil mapping at the global level (GlobalSoilMap). Continuous covariates and categorical predictors were used and their contributions to the model assessed. Only the environmental covariates elevation, aspect, stream power index (SPI), soil wetness index (SWI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and b3/b2 band ratio were significantly correlated with soil properties. The predictive models had a mean coefficient of determination of 0.21. Best results were obtained with the geostatistical predictive models, where the highest coefficient of determination 0.43 was associated with sand properties between 60 to 100 cm deep. The use of a sparse data set of soil properties for digital mapping can explain only part of the spatial variation of these properties. The results may be related to the sampling density and the quantity and quality of the environmental covariates and predictive models used.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 1. Cichlids in a crater lake.

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of cichlids in Lake Apoyo in Nicaragua is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here, we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this cichlid system. Our results show that relatively rapid (<20,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche and (sympatric or parapatric) speciation via local adaptation and divergence in habitat and mating preferences are theoretically plausible if: (i) the number of loci underlying the traits controlling local adaptation, and habitat and mating preferences is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; (iii) the carrying capacity of the population is intermediate; and (iv) the effects of the loci influencing nonrandom mating are strong. We discuss patterns and timescales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

Equilibrium curves and growth models to deal with forests in transition to uneven-aged structure : application in two sample stands

Abstract

Loss of Prestress, Camber, and Deflection of Non-Composite and Composite Structures Using Different Weight Concretes, HR-137, 1970

General equations are presented for predicting loss of prestress and camber of both composite and non- composite prestressed concrete structures. Continuous time functins of all parameters needed to solve the equations are given, and sample results included. Computed prestress loss and camber are compared with experimental data for normal weight and lightweight concrete. Methods are also presented for predicting the effect of non-prestressed tension steel in reducing time-dependent loss of prestress and camber, and for the determination of short-time deflections of uncracked and cracked prestressed members. Comparisons with experimental results are indicated for these partially prestressed methods.

Active strain and activation models in cardiac electromechanics

We present a model for mechanical activation of the cardiac tissue depending on the evolution of the transmembrane electrical potential and certain gating/ionic variables that are available in most of electrophysiological descriptions of the cardiac membrane. The basic idea consists in adding to the chosen ionic model one ordinary differential equation for the kinetics of the mechanical activation function. A relevant example illustrates the desired properties of the proposed model, such as delayed muscle contraction and correct magnitude of the muscle fibers' shortening.

The Caribbean-North America-Cocos Triple Junction and the dynamics of the Polochic-Motagua fault systems: Pull-up and zipper models

The Polochic-Motagua fault systems (PMFS) are part of the sinistral transform boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. To the west, these systems interact with the subduction zone of the Cocos plate, forming a subduction-subduction-transform triple junction. The North American plate moves westward relative to the Caribbean plate. This movement does not affect the geometry of the subducted Cocos plate, which implies that deformation is accommodated entirely in the two overriding plates. Structural data, fault kinematic analysis, and geomorphic observations provide new elements that help to understand the late Cenozoic evolution of this triple junction. In the Miocene, extension and shortening occurred south and north of the Motagua fault, respectively. This strain regime migrated northward to the Polochic fault after the late Miocene. This shift is interpreted as a ``pull-up'' of North American blocks into the Caribbean realm. To the west, the PMFS interact with a trench-parallel fault zone that links the Tonala fault to the Jalpatagua fault. These faults bound a fore-arc sliver that is shared by the two overriding plates. We propose that the dextral Jalpatagua fault merges with the sinistral PMFS, leaving behind a suturing structure, the Tonala fault. This tectonic ``zipper'' allows the migration of the triple junction. As a result, the fore-arc sliver comes into contact with the North American plate and helps to maintain a linear subduction zone along the trailing edge of the Caribbean plate. All these processes currently make the triple junction increasingly diffuse as it propagates eastward and inland within both overriding plates.

Field data and prediction models of pesticide spray drift on coffee crop

The objective of this work was to generate drift curves from pesticide applications on coffee plants and to compare them with two European drift-prediction models. The used methodology is based on the ISO 22866 standard. The experimental design was a randomized complete block with ten replicates in a 2x20 split-plot arrangement. The evaluated factors were: two types of nozzles (hollow cone with and without air induction) and 20 parallel distances to the crop line outside of the target area, spaced at 2.5 m. Blotting papers were used as a target and placed in each of the evaluated distances. The spray solution was composed of water+rhodamine B fluorescent tracer at a concentration of 100 mg L-1, for detection by fluorimetry. A spray volume of 400 L ha-1 was applied using a hydropneumatic sprayer. The air-induction nozzle reduces the drift up to 20 m from the treated area. The application with the hollow cone nozzle results in 6.68% maximum drift in the nearest collector of the treated area. The German and Dutch models overestimate the drift at distances closest to the crop, although the Dutch model more closely approximates the drift curves generated by both spray nozzles.

Growth and yield models in Spain: historical overview, contemporary examples and perspectives

En el presente trabajo se presenta una revisión sobre los modelos forestales desarrollados en España durante los últimos años, tanto para la producción maderable como no maderable y, para la dinámica de los bosques (regeneración, mortalidad). Se presentan modelos tanto de rodal completo como de clases diamétricas y de árbol individual. Los modelos desarrollados hasta la fecha se han desarrollado a partir de datos procedentes de parcelas permanentes, ensayos y el Inventario Forestal Nacional. En el trabajo se muestran los diferentes submodelos desarrollados hasta la fecha, así como las plataformas informáticas que permiten utilizar dichos modelos. Se incluyen las principales perspectivas de desarrollo de la modelización forestal en España.

Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with the Five-Factor and HEXACO models of personality.

Recent literature evidences differential associations of personal and general just-world beliefs with constructs in the interpersonal domain. In line with this research, we examine the respective relationships of each just-world belief with the Five-Factor and the HEXACO models of personality in one representative sample of the working population of Switzerland and one sample of the general US population, respectively. One suppressor effect was observed in both samples: Neuroticism and emotionality was positively associated with general just-world belief, but only after controlling for personal just-world belief. In addition, agreeableness was positively and honesty-humility negatively associated with general just-world belief but unrelated to personal just-world belief. Conscientiousness was consistently unrelated to any of the just-world belief and extraversion and openness to experience revealed unstable coefficients across studies. We discuss these points in light of just-world theory and their implications for future research taking both dimensions into account.

Mixed and Hybrid Models of Public Service Delivery

This symposium presents research from different contexts to improve our collective understanding of a variety of aspects of mixed forms of service delivery, be they mixed contracting at the level of the market (which is more common in the U.S.), or mixed management and ownership at the level of the firm (which is more common in Europe). The articles included in this special symposium examine the factors that give rise to mixed forms of service delivery (e.g., economic and fiscal stress, regulatory flexibility, geography, management) and how these factors impact their design and operation. Articles also explore the performance of mixed forms of service delivery relative to more conventional arrangements like contracted or direct service delivery. The articles contribute to a better theoretical and conceptual understanding of mixed/hybrid forms of services delivery.

Adaptive MCMC methods with applications in environmental and geophysical models

This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.