916 resultados para TIME TRENDS


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Contexte : Environ 20 % des femmes enceintes présentent un risque élevé de dépression prénatale. Les femmes immigrantes présentent des symptômes dépressifs élevés pendant la grossesse, le début de la période suivant l'accouchement et comme mères de jeunes enfants. Tandis que les disparités ethniques dans la symptomatologie dépressive pendant la grossesse ont été décrites, la combinaison de la longueur du séjour dans le pays d’accueil et la région d'origine sont rarement évalués dans des études qui portent sur la santé des immigrants au Canada. En outre, les études auprès des femmes immigrantes enceintes ont souvent un échantillon de taille qui ne suffit pas pour démêler les effets de la région d'origine et de la durée du séjour sur la santé mentale. De plus, au Canada, presque une femme sur cinq est un immigrant, mais leur santé mentale au cours de la grossesse, les niveaux d'exposition aux facteurs de risque reconnus pour la dépression prénatale et comment leur exposition et la vulnérabilité face à ces risques se comparent à celles des femmes enceintes nés au Canada, sont peu connus. De plus, le processus d'immigration peut être accompagné de nombreux défis qui augmentent le risque de violence subie par la femme. Néanmoins, les preuves existantes dans la littérature sont contradictoires, surtout en ce qui concerne le type de violence évaluée, les minorités ethniques qui sont considérées et l'inclusion de l'état de santé mentale. Objectifs : Tout d'abord, nous avons comparé la santé mentale de femmes immigrantes et les femmes nées au Canada au cours de la grossesse en tenant compte de la durée du séjour et de la région d'origine, et nous avons évalué le rôle des facteurs socio-économiques et du soutien social dans la symptomatologie dépressive prénatale. Deuxièmement, nous avons examiné la répartition des facteurs de risque contextuels de la symptomatologie dépressive prénatale selon le statut d'immigrant et la durée du séjour au Canada. Nous avons ensuite évalué l'association entre ces facteurs de risque et les symptômes de dépression prénataux et ensuite comparé la vulnérabilité des femmes nés au Canada et les femmes immigrantes à ces facteurs de risque en ce qui concerne les symptômes de la dépression prénatale. En troisième lieu, nous avons décrit la prévalence de la violence pendant la grossesse et examiné l'association entre l'expérience de la violence depuis le début de la grossesse et la prévalence des symptômes de la dépression prénatale, en tenant compte du statut d’immigrant. Méthodes : Les données proviennent de l'étude de Montréal sur les différences socio-économiques en prématurité. Les femmes ont été recrutées lors des examens de routine d'échographie (16 à 20 semaines), lors de la prise du sang (8-12 semaines), ou dans les centres de soins prénatals. L’échelle de dépistage Center for Epidemiologic Studies (CES-D) a été utilisée pour évaluer la symptomatologie dépressive à 24-26 semaines de grossesse chez 1495 immigrantes et 3834 femmes nées au Canada. Les niveaux d'exposition à certains facteurs de risque ont été évalués selon le statut d'immigrant et la durée de séjour à l'aide des tests Chi-2 ou test- t. L'échelle de dépistage Abuse Assessment screen (AAS) a été utilisée pour déterminer la fréquence et la gravité de la violence depuis le début de la grossesse. La relation avec l'agresseur a été également considérée. Toutes les mesures d'association ont été évaluées à l'aide de régressions logistiques multiples. Des termes d'interaction multiplicative furent construits entre chacun des facteurs de risque et statut d'immigrant pour révéler la vulnérabilité différentielle entre les femmes nés au Canada et immigrantes. Résultats : La prévalence des symptômes de dépression prénatales (CES-D > = 16 points) était plus élevée chez les immigrantes (32 % [29,6-34,4]) que chez les femmes nées au Canada (22,8 % (IC 95 % [21.4-24.1]). Des femmes immigrantes présentaient une symptomatologie dépressive élevée indépendamment du temps depuis l'immigration. La région d'origine est un fort indice de la symptomatologie dépressive : les prévalences les plus élevées ont été observées chez les femmes de la région des Caraïbes (45 %), de l’Asie du Sud (43 %), du Maghreb (42 %), de l'Afrique subsaharienne (39 %) et de l’Amérique latine (33 %) comparativement aux femmes nées au Canada (22 %) et celle de l'Asie de l’Est où la prévalence était la plus faible (17 %). La susceptibilité de présenter une dépression prénatale chez les femmes immigrantes était attenuée après l’ajustement pour le manque de soutien social et de l'argent pour les besoins de base. En ce qui concerne la durée du séjour au Canada, les symptômes dépressifs ont augmenté avec le temps chez les femmes d’origines européenne et asiatique du sud-est, diminué chez les femmes venant du Maghreb, de l’Afrique subsaharienne, du Moyen-Orient, et de l’Asie de l'est, et ont varié avec le temps chez les femmes d’origine latine et des Caraïbes. Les femmes immigrantes étaient beaucoup plus exposées que celles nées au Canada à des facteurs de risques contextuels indésirables comme la mésentente conjugale, le manque de soutien social, la pauvreté et l'encombrement au domicile. Au même niveau d'exposition aux facteurs de risque, les femmes nées au Canada ont présenté une plus grande vulnérabilité à des symptômes de la dépression prénatale en l'absence de soutien social (POR = 4,14 IC95 % [2,69 ; 6.37]) tandis que les femmes immigrées ont présentées une plus grande vulnérabilité à des symptômes de la dépression prénatale en absence d'argent pour les besoins de base (POR = 2,98 IC95 % [2.06 ; 4,32]). En ce qui concerne la violence, les menaces constituent le type de la violence le plus souvent rapporté avec 63 % qui ont lieu plus d'une fois. Les femmes immigrantes de long terme ont rapporté la prévalence la plus élevée de tous les types de violence (7,7 %). La violence par le partenaire intime a été la plus fréquemment rapportées (15 %) chez les femmes enceintes les plus pauvres. Des fortes associations ont été obtenues entre la fréquence de la violence (plus d'un épisode) et la symptomatologie dépressive (POR = 5,21 [3,73 ; 7,23] ; ainsi qu’entre la violence par le partenaire intime et la symptomatologie dépressive (POR = 5, 81 [4,19 ; 8,08). Le statut d'immigrant n'a pas modifié les associations entre la violence et la symptomatologie dépressive. Conclusion: Les fréquences élevées des symptômes dépressifs observées mettent en évidence la nécessité d'évaluer l'efficacité des interventions préventives contre la dépression prénatale. La dépression chez les femmes enceintes appartenant à des groupes minoritaires mérite plus d'attention, indépendamment de leur durée de séjour au Canada. Les inégalités d’exposition aux facteurs de risque existent entre les femmes enceintes nées au Canada et immigrantes. Des interventions favorisant la réduction de la pauvreté et l'intégration sociale pourraient réduire le risque de la dépression prénatale. La violence contre les femmes enceintes n'est pas rare au Canada et elle est associée à des symptômes de la dépression prénatale. Ces résultats appuient le développement futur du dépistage périnatal de la violence, de son suivi et d'un système d'aiguillage culturellement ajusté.

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El cáncer de mama es la neoplasia más frecuente en mujeres en el mundo y en Colombia. Este artículo describe las tendencias de mortalidad por cáncer de mama en Bogotá y Colombia entre 1995 y 2009. Metodología: Estudio descriptivo de análisis de tendencias de las tasas de mortalidad a través del modelo estadístico de Edad – Periodo – Cohorte. Los casos se tomaron de los certificados de defunción por cáncer de mama registrados en el Departamento Nacional de Estadística entre 1995 y 2009. Se evaluaron diferentes modelos: periodo, periodo-drift (cambio lineal en el tiempo), periodo-edad, periodo-cohorte, periodo-edad-cohorte por el método funciones estimables. Resultados: La tasa de mortalidad por cáncer de mama en Colombia fue 6.78 por 100.000 con comportamiento constante en los tres periodos. Mientras en Bogotá fue de 7.78 por 100.000 con tendencia a la disminución entre 40 y 69 años, en el último periodo estudiado. En este estudio el efecto periodo + cohorte es el que mejor describe el comportamiento de las tasas de mortalidad por cáncer de mama en ambos escenarios (Bogotá AIC: 13.8 p=0,314; Colombia: AIC=27.4 p=0,238). Conclusiones: Existe una tendencia a la disminución en la mortalidad por cáncer de mama en ciertos grupos etáreos en Bogotá en el periodo 2005-2009, diversas hipótesis explicarían dicho fenómeno, entre estas el acceso a métodos de tamizaje, aunque no hay estudios al respecto. Se recomienda reforzar los métodos de tamizaje y diagnóstico temprano en el resto del país.

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High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale model are performed to estimate heat and moisture budgets of a well-mixed boundary layer. The model budgets are validated against energy budgets obtained from airborne measurements over heterogeneous terrain in Western Germany. Time rate of change, vertical divergence, and horizontal advection for an atmospheric column of air are estimated. Results show that the time trend of specific humidity exhibits some deficiencies, while the potential temperature trend is matched accurately. Furthermore, the simulated turbulent surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat are comparable to the measured fluxes, leading to similar values of the vertical divergence. The analysis of different horizontal model resolutions exhibits improved surface fluxes with increased resolution, a fact attributed to a reduced aggregation effect. Scale-interaction effects could be identified: while time trends and advection are strongly influenced by mesoscale forcing, the turbulent surface fluxes are mainly controlled by microscale processes.

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Objective: To assess time trends in the contribution of processed foods to food purchases made by Brazilian households and to explore the potential impact on the overall quality of the diet. Design: Application of a new classification of foodstuffs based on extent and purpose of food processing to data collected by comparable probabilistic household budget surveys. The classification assigns foodstuffs to the following groups: unprocessed/minimally processed foods (Group 1); processed culinary ingredients (Group 2); or ultra-processed ready-to-eat or ready-to-heat food products (Group 3). Setting: Eleven metropolitan areas of Brazil. Subjects: Households; n 13 611 in 1987-8, n 16 014 in 1995-5 and n 13 848 in 2002-3. Results: Over the last three decades, the household consumption of Group 1 and Group 2 foods has been steadily replaced by consumption of Group 3 ultra-processed food products, both overall and in lower- and upper-income groups. In the 2002-3 survey, Group 3 items represented more than one-quarter of total energy (more than one-third for higher-income households). The overall nutrient profile of Group 3 items, compared with that of Group 1 and Group 2 items, revealed more added sugar, more saturated fat, more sodium, less fibre and much higher energy density. Conclusions: The high energy density and the unfavourable nutrition profiling of Group 3 food products, and also their potential harmful effects on eating and drinking behaviours, indicate that governments and health authorities should use all possible methods, including legislation and statutory regulation, to halt and reverse the replacement of minimally processed foods and processed culinary ingredients by ultra-processed food products.

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In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

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Objective. To investigate the short-term effects of exposure to particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon on the daily demand for outpatient care due to respiratory diseases in children and the elderly. Methods. Epidemiologic study with ecologic time series design. Daily consultation records were obtained from the 14 primary health care clinics in the municipality of Alta Floresta, state of Mato Grosso, in the southern region of the Brazilian Amazon, between January 2004 and December 2005. Information on the daily levels of fine particulate matter was made available by the Brazilian National Institute for Spatial Research. To control for confounding factors ( situations in which a non-causal association between exposure and disease is observed due to a third variable), variables related to time trends, seasonality, temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and calendar effects ( such as occurrence of holidays and weekends) were included in the model. Poisson regression with generalized additive models was used. Results. A 10 mu g/m(3) increase in the level of exposure to particulate matter was associated with increases of 2.9% and 2.6% in outpatient consultations due to respiratory diseases in children on the 6th and 7th days following exposure. Significant associations were not observed for elderly individuals. Conclusions. The results suggest that the levels of particulate matter from biomass burning in the Amazon are associated with adverse effects on the respiratory health of children.

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This paper studies a smooth-transition (ST) type cointegration. The proposed ST cointegration allows for regime switching structure in a cointegrated system. It nests the linear cointegration developed by Engle and Granger (1987) and the threshold cointegration studied by Balke and Fomby (1997). We develop F-type tests to examine linear cointegration against ST cointegration in ST-type cointegrating regression models with or without time trends. The null asymptotic distributions of the tests are derived with stationary transition variables in ST cointegrating regression models. And it is shown that our tests have nonstandard limiting distributions expressed in terms of standard Brownian motion when regressors are pure random walks, while have standard asymptotic distributions when regressors contain random walks with nonzero drift. Finite-sample distributions of those tests are studied by Monto Carlo simulations. The small-sample performance of the tests states that our F-type tests have a better power when the system contains ST cointegration than when the system is linearly cointegrated. An empirical example for the purchasing power parity (PPP) data (monthly US dollar, Italy lira and dollar-lira exchange rate from 1973:01 to 1989:10) is illustrated by applying the testing procedures in this paper. It is found that there is no linear cointegration in the system, but there exits the ST-type cointegration in the PPP data.

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No Brasil, a mortalidade por homicídios persiste como importante problema de saúde pública, principalmente entre homens adultos jovens. O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar o risco de morte por homicídios entre homens de 20-39 anos de idade e sua associação com características sociodemográficas dos municípios brasileiros. Foi realizado estudo ecológico, tendo como unidades de análise todos os municípios do País. Foram estudadas as tendências temporais entre 1999-2010 e as associações do desfecho com indicadores dos municípios em análise transversal referente ao quatriênio 2007-2010. Entre os quatriênios 1999-2002 e 2007-2010, houve aumento das taxas medianas de mortalidade por homicídios entre homens de 20-39 anos, de 22,7 para 35,5 por 100 mil habitantes. No quatriênio 2007-2010, os riscos de homicídios foram estatisticamente superiores (p<0,001) nos municípios de maior porte populacional, maior taxa de fecundidade, baixa proporção de alfabetizados, maior desigualdade aferida pela renda 20/40 e maior urbanização. Para a proporção da população de baixa renda e renda média per capita, as associações indicam excessos nas estimativas de risco de homicídios nos municípios com valores intermediários desses indicadores. Os achados podem auxiliar na focalização de políticas públicas.

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OBJETIVOS: Estimar o consumo de "açúcar de adição" pela população brasileira, nos estratos regionais e socioeconômicos, destacando suas principais fontes alimentares e verificar a tendência do seu consumo nas últimas décadas. MÉTODOS: Contou-se com informações das Pesquisas de Orçamentos Familiares a partir da década de 80 sobre o tipo e a quantidade de alimentos e bebidas adquiridos pelas famílias brasileiras. Os indicadores analisados foram: % das calorias de açúcar no total calórico da dieta e % calórico das frações de açúcar de mesa e de açúcar adicionado aos alimentos pela indústria/kcal açúcar da dieta. RESULTADOS: Em 2002/03, 16,7% das calorias totais eram provenientes de "açúcar de adição" e sua participação mostrou-se elevada em todos os estratos regionais e de renda. A razão açúcar de mesa/açúcar adicionado pela indústria se inverte com o aumento da renda. A participação do açúcar de mesa nos últimos 15 anos foi reduzida, enquanto a contribuição do açúcar adicionado aos alimentos dobrou, especialmente por meio do consumo de refrigerantes e biscoitos. CONCLUSÕES: O consumo de açúcar no Brasil excede largamente a recomendação da OMS e verificou-se importante alteração nas fontes de consumo.

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The aim of this thesis is to provide a geochemical characterization of the Seehausen territory (a neighborhood) of Bremen, Germany. In this territory it is hosted a landfill of dredged sediments coming both from Bremerhaven (North See) and Bremen harbor (directly on the river Weser). For this reason this work has been focused also on possible impacts of the landfill on the groundwaters (shallow and deep aquifer). The Seehausen landfill uses the dewatering technique to manage the dredged sediments: incoming sediments are put into dewatering fields until they are completely dried (it takes almost a year). Then they are randomly sampled and analyzed: if the pollutants content is acceptable, sediments are treated with other materials and used instead of raw material for embankment, bricks, etc., otherwise they are disposed in the landfill. During this work it has been made a study of the natural geology and hydrogeology of the whole area of interest, especially because it is characterized by ancient natural salt deposits. Then, together with the Geological Survey of Bremen and the Harbor Authority of Bremen there have been identified all useful piezometers for a monitoring net around the landfill. During the sampling campaign there have been collected data of the principal anions and cations, physical parameters and stable water isotopes. Data analysis has been focused particularly on Cl, Na, SO4 and EC because these parameters might be helpful to attribute geochemical trends to the landfill or to a natural background. Furthermore dataloggers have been installed for a month in some piezometers and EC, pressure, dissolved oxygen and temperature data have been collected. Finally there has been made a deep comparison between current and historical data (1996 – 2011) and between old interpolation maps and current ones in order to see time trends of the aquifer geochemistry.

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Objective High rates of suicide have been described in HIV-infected patients, but it is unclear to what extent the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has affected suicide rates. The authors examined time trends and predictors of suicide in the pre-HAART (1988—1995) and HAART (1996—2008) eras in HIV-infected patients and the general population in Switzerland. Method The authors analyzed data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and the Swiss National Cohort, a longitudinal study of mortality in the Swiss general population. The authors calculated standardized mortality ratios comparing HIV-infected patients with the general population and used Poisson regression to identify risk factors for suicide. Results From 1988 to 2008, 15,275 patients were followed in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study for a median duration of 4.7 years. Of these, 150 died by suicide (rate 158.4 per 100,000 person-years). In men, standardized mortality ratios declined from 13.7 (95% CI=11.0—17.0) in the pre-HAART era to 3.5 (95% CI=2.5—4.8) in the late HAART era. In women, ratios declined from 11.6 (95% CI=6.4—20.9) to 5.7 (95% CI=3.2—10.3). In both periods, suicide rates tended to be higher in older patients, in men, in injection drug users, and in patients with advanced clinical stage of HIV illness. An increase in CD4 cell counts was associated with a reduced risk of suicide. Conclusions Suicide rates decreased significantly with the introduction of HAART, but they remain above the rate observed in the general population, and risk factors for suicide remain similar. HIV-infected patients remain an important target group for suicide prevention.

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OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the virulence of HIV-1 has been changing since its introduction into Switzerland. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study of HIV-1 infected individuals with well-characterized pre-therapy disease history. METHODS: To minimize the effect of recently imported viruses and ethnicity-associated host factors, the analysis was restricted to the white, north-west-European majority population of the cohort. Virulence was characterized by the decline slope of the CD4 cell count (n = 817 patients), the decline slope of the CD4:CD8 ratio (n = 815 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 549 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. Linear regression models were used to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging between 1984 and 2003) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age and CD4 cell count at entry. RESULTS: We found no correlation between any of the virulence markers and the date of diagnosis. Inspection of short-term trends confirmed that virulence has fluctuated around a stable level over time. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of long-term time trends in the virulence markers indicates that HIV-1 is not evolving towards increasing or decreasing virulence at a perceptible rate. Both highly virulent and attenuated strains have apparently been unable to spread at the population level. This result suggests that either the evolution of virulence may be slow or inhibited due to evolutionary constraints, or HIV-1 may have already evolved to optimal virulence in the human host.

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BACKGROUND: In Switzerland (population 7.4 million), 3 different systems contribute to surveillance for sexually transmitted infections. GOAL: The goal of this study was to compare time trends from surveillance systems for chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. STUDY DESIGN: We studied surveillance data (1997-2003) from laboratory reports in women and men, men attending dermatology clinics, and women attending gynecologists. RESULTS: Laboratory reports of episodes of Chlamydia trachomatis and Neisseria gonorrhoeae increased by 31% (from 2573 to 3449 cases) and 104% (from 259 to 528 cases), respectively. Over the same period, chlamydia reports from men attending dermatology clinics and women attending gynecologists did not change and dermatology clinic-based reports of gonorrhea in men increased only slightly. Syphilis reports from dermatology clinics increased by 127% (from 22 to 50 cases). CONCLUSIONS: Increases in laboratory reports of chlamydia and gonorrhea were not consistently detected in sentinel populations. Numbers of cases reported to all 3 systems were low. The performance of surveillance systems for sexually transmitted infections should be evaluated regularly.

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BACKGROUND: Little is known about time trends, predictors, and consequences of changes made to antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens early after patients initially start treatment. METHODS: We compared the incidence of, reasons for, and predictors of treatment change within 1 year after starting combination ART (cART), as well as virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year, among 1866 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who initiated cART during 2000--2001, 2002--2003, or 2004--2005. RESULTS: The durability of initial regimens did not improve over time (P = .15): 48.8% of 625 patients during 2000--2001, 43.8% of 607 during 2002--2003, and 44.3% of 634 during 2004--2005 changed cART within 1 year; reasons for change included intolerance (51.1% of all patients), patient wish (15.4%), physician decision (14.8%), and virological failure (7.1%). An increased probability of treatment change was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, larger human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA loads, and receipt of regimens that contained stavudine or indinavir/ritonavir, but a decreased probability was associated with receipt of regimens that contained tenofovir. Treatment discontinuation was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, current use of injection drugs, and receipt of regimens that contained nevirapine. One-year outcomes improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005: 84.5% and 92.7% of patients, respectively, reached HIV-1 RNA loads of <50 copies/mL and achieved median increases in CD4+ cell counts of 157.5 and 197.5 cells/microL, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Virological and immunological outcomes of initial treatments improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005, irrespective of uniformly high rates of early changes in treatment across the 3 study intervals.

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BACKGROUND AND AIMS Smoking is a crucial environmental factor in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. However, knowledge on patient characteristics associated with smoking, time trends of smoking rates, gender differences and supportive measures to cease smoking provided by physicians is scarce. We aimed to address these questions in Swiss IBD patients. METHODS Prospectively obtained data from patients participating in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study was analysed and compared with the general Swiss population [GSP] matched by age, sex and year. RESULTS Among a total of 1770 IBD patients analysed [49.1% male], 29% are current smokers. More than twice as many patients with Crohn's disease [CD] are active smokers compared with ulcerative colitis [UC] [UC, 39.6% vs CD 15.3%, p < 0.001]. In striking contrast to the GSP, significantly more women than men with CD smoke [42.8% vs 35.8%, p = 0.025], with also an overall significantly increased smoking rate compared with the GSP in women but not men. The vast majority of smoking IBD patients [90.5%] claim to never have received any support to achieve smoking cessation, significantly more in UC compared with CD. We identify a significantly negative association of smoking and primary sclerosing cholangitis, indicative of a protective effect. Psychological distress in CD is significantly higher in smokers compared with non-smokers, but does not differ in UC. CONCLUSIONS Despite well-established detrimental effects, smoking rates in CD are alarmingly high with persistent and stagnating elevations compared with the GSP, especially in female patients. Importantly, there appears to be an unacceptable underuse of supportive measures to achieve smoking cessation.