Impact of oceanic circulation changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂

δ¹³ CO₂ measured in Antarctic ice cores provides constraints on oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycle processes linked with millennial-scale changes in atmospheric CO₂. However, the interpretation of δ¹³ CO₂ is not straight-forward. Using carbon isotope-enabled versions of the LOVECLIM and Bern3D models, we perform a set of sensitivity experiments in which the formation rates of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW), Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are varied. We study the impact of these circulation changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ as well as on the oceanic δ¹³ CO₂ distribution. In general, we find that the formation rates of AABW, NADW, NPDW, and AAIW are negatively correlated with changes in δ¹³ CO₂: namely, strong oceanic ventilation decreases atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂. However, since large-scale oceanic circulation reorganizations also impact nutrient utilization and the Earth’s climate, the relationship between atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ levels and ocean ventilation rate is not unequivocal. In both models atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ is very sensitive to changes in AABW formation rates: increased AABW formation enhances the transport of low δ¹³ CO₂ waters to the surface and decreases atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂. By contrast, the impact of NADW changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ is less robust and might be model dependent. This results from complex interplay between global climate, carbon cycle, and the formation rate of NADW, a water body characterized by relatively high δ¹³ CO₂.

(Table 2) Survivorship of transplanted seedlings of Picea glauca inside and outside three tree islands in 1994, 1995, 2009 and after 15 years

The northern boundary of boreal forest and the ranges of tree species are expected to shift northward in response to climate warming, which will result in a decrease in the albedo of areas currently covered by tundra vegetation, an increase in terrestrial carbon sequestration, and an alteration of biodiversity in the current Low Arctic. Central to the prediction of forest expansion is an increase in the reproductive capacity and establishment of individual trees. We assessed cone production, seed viability, and transplanted seedling success of Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss. (white spruce) in the early 1990s and again in the late 2000s at four forest stand sites and eight tree island sites (clonal populations beyond present treeline) in the Mackenzie Delta region of the Northwest Territories, Canada. Over the past 20 years, average temperatures in this region have increased by 0.9 °C. This area has the northernmost forest-tundra ecotone in North America and is one of the few circumpolar regions where the northern limit of conifer trees reaches the Arctic Ocean. We found that cone production and seed viability did not change between the two periods of examination and that both variables decreased northward across the forest-tundra ecotone. Nevertheless, white spruce individuals at the northern limit of the forest-tundra ecotone produced viable seeds. Furthermore, transplanted seedlings were able to survive in the northernmost sites for 15 years, but there were no signs of natural regeneration. These results indicate that if climatic conditions continue to ameliorate, reproductive output will likely increase, but seedling establishment and forest expansion within the forest-tundra of this region is unlikely to occur without the availability of suitable recruitment sites. Processes that affect the availability of recruitment sites are likely to be important elsewhere in the circumpolar ecotone, and should be incorporated into models and predictions of climate change and its effects on the northern forest-tundra ecotone.

Absorption characteristics, major elements and chl a content of samples from Pond 19 at Zackenberg, NE Greenland

1. Shallow arctic lakes and ponds have simple and short food webs, but large uncertainties remain about benthic-pelagic links in these systems. We tested whether organic matter of benthic origin supports zooplankton biomass in a pond in NE Greenland, using stable isotope analysis of carbon and nitrogen in the pond itself and in a 13C-enrichment enclosure experiment. In the latter, we manipulated the carbon isotope signature of benthic algae to enhance its isotopic discrimination from other potential food sources for zooplankton. 2. The cladoceran Daphnia middendorffiana responded to the 13C-enrichment of benthic mats with progressively increasing d13C values, suggesting benthic feeding. Stable isotope analysis also pointed towards a negligible contribution of terrestrial carbon to the diet of D. middendorffiana. This agreed with the apparent dominance of autochthonous dissolved organic matter in the pond revealed by analysis of coloured dissolved organic matter. 3. Daily net production by phytoplankton in the pond (18 mg C/m**2/day) could satisfy only up to half of the calculated minimum energy requirements of D. middendorffiana (35 mg C/m**2/day), whereas benthic primary production alone (145 mg C/m**2/day) was more than sufficient. 4. Our findings highlight benthic primary production as a major dietary source for D. middendorffiana in this system and suggest that benthic organic matter may play a key role in sustaining pelagic secondary production in such nutrient-limited high arctic ponds.

Stable isotope ratios of benthic foraminifera in mid-Pleitsocene sediments of ODP Site 108-664 in the equatorial Atlantic

Five delta13C records from the deep ocean, extending back to 1.3 Ma, were examined in order to constrain changes in mean ocean carbon isotope composition and thermohaline circulation over the 41- to 100-ka climate transition. These data show that significant perturbations in mean ocean carbon chemistry were associated with the mid-Pleistocene climate transition. Notable features of the last 1.3 Myr are (1) a pronounced ~0.3? decrease in mean ocean delta13C between 0.9 and 1.0 Myr, followed by a return to pre-1.0 Ma values by 400 ka B.P., which we propose was due to the onetime addition of isotopically depleted terrestrial carbon to the ocean, possibly associated with an increase in global aridity (and decrease in the size of the biosphere) across the 41- to 100-ka transition; (2) no change in the Atlantic-Pacific (A-P) delta13C gradient over the last 1.3 Myr, suggesting no change in mean ocean nutrient content accompanied the addition of light carbon; and (3) stronger vertical nutrient fractionation in the North Atlantic in the middle Pleistocene between sites 607 and 552, suggesting weaker North Atlantic Deep Water formation at this time relative to the early and late Pleistocene. We also find evidence for a more pronounced deep recirculation gyre in the western North Atlantic basin in the early Brunhes, as evidenced by "aging" of deep northern basin water (site 607) relative to deep water in the equatorial Atlantic (site 664).

Particulate organic matter (POM) of samples from the Lena River delta

Particulate organic matter (POM) derived from permafrost soils and transported by the Lena River represents a quantitatively important terrestrial carbon pool exported to Laptev Sea sediments (next to POM derived from coastal erosion). Its fate in a future warming Arctic, i.e., its remobilization and remineralization after permafrost thawing as well as its transport pathways to and sequestration in marine sediments, is currently under debate. We present one of the first radiocarbon (14C) data sets for surface water POM within the Lena Delta sampled in the summers of 2009 - 2010 and spring 2011 (n = 30 samples). The bulk D14C values varied from -55 to -391 per mil translating into 14C ages of 395 to 3920 years BP. We further estimated the fraction of soil-derived POM to our samples based on (1) particulate organic carbon to particulate nitrogen ratios (POC : PN) and (2) on the stable carbon isotope (d13C) composition of our samples. Assuming that this phytoplankton POM has a modern 14C concentration, we inferred the 14C concentrations of the soil-derived POM fractions. The results ranged from -322 to -884 per mil (i.e., 3060 to 17 250 14C years BP) for the POC : PN-based scenario and from -261 to -944 per mil (i.e., 2370 to 23 100 14C years BP) for the d13C-based scenario. Despite the limitations of our approach, the estimated D14C values of the soil-derived POM fractions seem to reflect the heterogeneous 14C concentrations of the Lena River catchment soils covering a range from Holocene to Pleistocene ages better than the bulk POM D14C values. We further used a dual-carbon-isotope three-end-member mixing model to distinguish between POM contributions from Holocene soils and Pleistocene Ice Complex (IC) deposits to our soil-derived POM fraction. IC contributions are comparatively low (mean of 0.14) compared to Holocene soils (mean of 0.32) and riverine phytoplankton (mean of 0.55), which could be explained with the restricted spatial distribution of IC deposits within the Lena catchment. Based on our newly calculated soil-derived POM D14C values, we propose an isotopic range for the riverine soil-derived POM end member with D14C of -495 ± 153 per mil deduced from our d13C-based binary mixing model and d13C of -26.6 ± 1 per mil deduced from our data of Lena Delta soils and literature values. These estimates can help to improve the dual-carbon-isotope simulations used to quantify contributions from riverine soil POM, Pleistocene IC POM from coastal erosion, and marine POM in Siberian shelf sediments.

Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The ECHAM-1 T21/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate climatic conditions at the last interglacial maximum (Eemian. 125 kyr BP). The results reflect thc expected surface temperature changes (with respect to the control run) due to the amplification (reduction) of the seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. A number of simulated features agree with previous results from atmospheric GCM simulations e.g. intensified summer southwest monsoons) except in the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees N. where dynamical feedback, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increase zonal temperatures about 1 degrees C above what would be predicted from simple energy balance considerations. As this is the same area where most of the terrestrial geological data originate, this result suggests that previous estimates of Eemian global average temperature might have been biased by sample distribution. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the estimated global temperature increase of only 0.3 degrees C greater than the control run ha, been previously shown to be consistent a with CLIMAP sea surface temperature estimates. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is intensified. globally averaged precipitation over land is within about 1% of the present, contravening some geological inferences bur not the deep-sea delta(13)C estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes. Winter circulation changes in the northern Arabian Sea. driven by strong cooling on land, are as large as summer circulation changes that are the usual focus of interest, suggesting that interpreting variations in the Arabian Sea. sedimentary record solely in terms of the summer monsoon response could sometimes lead to errors. A small monsoonal response over northern South America suggests that interglacial paleotrends in this region were not just due to El Nino variations.

Peatland depths and radiocarbon dates, recent decades, North America

Peatland ecosystems store about 500-600 Pg of organic carbon, largely accumulated since the last glaciation. Whether they continue to sequester carbon or release it as greenhouse gases, perhaps in large amounts, is important in Earth's temperature dynamics. Given both ages and depths of numerous dated sample peatlands, their rate of carbon sequestration can be estimated throughout the Holocene. Here we use average values for carbon content per unit volume, the geographical extent of peatlands, and ecological models of peatland establishment and growth, to reconstruct the time-trajectory of peatland carbon sequestration in North America and project it into the future. Peatlands there contain ~163 Pg of carbon. Ignoring effects of climate change and other major anthropogenic disturbances, the rate of carbon accumulation is projected to decline slowly over millennia as reduced net carbon accumulation in existing peatlands is largely balanced by new peatland establishment. Peatlands are one of few long-term terrestrial carbon sinks, probably important for global carbon regulation in future generations. This study contributes to a better understanding of these ecosystems that will assist their inclusion in earth-system models, and therefore their management to maintain carbon storage during climate change.

CO2 concentration and stable isotope ratios of three Antarctic ice cores covering the period from 149.4 - 1.5 kyr before 1950

We present new d13C measurements of atmospheric CO2 covering the last glacial/interglacial cycle, complementing previous records covering Terminations I and II. Most prominent in the new record is a significant depletion in d13C(atm) of 0.5 permil occurring during marine isotope stage (MIS) 4, followed by an enrichment of the same magnitude at the beginning of MIS 3. Such a significant excursion in the record is otherwise only observed at glacial terminations, suggesting that similar processes were at play, such as changing sea surface temperatures, changes in marine biological export in the Southern Ocean (SO) due to variations in aeolian iron fluxes, changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, upwelling of deep water in the SO, and long-term trends in terrestrial carbon storage. Based on previous modeling studies, we propose constraints on some of these processes during specific time intervals. The decrease in d13C(atm) at the end of MIS 4 starting approximately 64 kyr B.P. was accompanied by increasing [CO2]. This period is also marked by a decrease in aeolian iron flux to the SO, followed by an increase in SO upwelling during Heinrich event 6, indicating that it is likely that a large amount of d13C-depleted carbon was transferred to the deep oceans previously, i.e., at the onset of MIS 4. Apart from the upwelling event at the end of MIS 4 (and potentially smaller events during Heinrich events in MIS 3), upwelling of deep water in the SO remained reduced until the last glacial termination, whereupon a second pulse of isotopically light carbon was released into the atmosphere.

Calcium carbonate conctent and stable isotope ratios of glacial-holocene sediments from the South China Sea

A bathymetric transect of cores in the South China Sea extending from 4200-m to less than 1000-m water depth has been examined for glacial-interglacial changes in carbonate and organic carbon sedimentation. Typical 'Pacific carbonate cycles' (high carbonate content during glacials and low carbonate content during interglacials) characterize cores from water depths deeper than 3500 m. In contrast, 'Atlantic carbonate cycles' (low carbonate during glacials and high carbonate during interglacials) are observed in cores from depths shallower than 3000 m as a result of increased dilution of carbonate by terrigenous material during glacial low stands of sea level. Glacial-interglacial changes in the carbonate chemistry of South China Sea intermediate and deep waters resulted in significant changes in the positions of the carbonate compensation depth (CCD) and the aragonite compensation depth (ACD). During the last glacial the CCD and ACD were at least 400 and 1200 m deeper, respectively, than at present. Organic carbon accumulation rates in the South China Sea were approximately 2 times higher during the last glacial than the Holocene. Carbon isotopic analyses and C/N ratios of the organic matter indicate that only a small fraction of the increase in glacial organic carbon accumulation can be attributed to input of terrestrial carbon. On the basis of this we conclude that surface water productivity in the South China Sea was approximately 2 times higher during the last glacial maximum. This is consistent with previous studies which have demonstrated that glacial productivity was higher in low- to mid-latitude regions of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. The deglacial decrease in organic carbon accumulation is accompanied by a decrease in delta13Corg. Using the relationship between delta13Corg and [CO2](aq) developed by Popp et al. [1989], we estimate that surface water pCO2 values in the South China Sea during the last 25,000 years were very similar to atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

RISKS TO FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS FROM CLIMATE POLICIES: AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF REGIONAL FOOD AVAILABILITY AND ACCESS WITH ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO 2050

Although mitigating GHG emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and access due to land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Prior studies have examined the co-impacts on food availability and global producer prices caused by alternative climate policies. More recent studies have looked at the reduction in total caloric intake driven by both changing income and changing food prices under one specific climate policy. However, due to inelastic calorie demand, consumers’ well-being are likely further reduced by increased food expenditures. Built upon existing literature, my dissertation explores how alternative climate policy designs might adversely affect both caloric intake and staple food budget share to 2050, by using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and a post-estimated metric of food availability and access (FAA). My dissertation first develop a set of new metrics and methods to explore new perspectives of food availability and access under new conditions. The FAA metric consists of two components, the fraction of GDP per capita spent on five categories of staple food and total caloric intake relative to a reference level. By testing the metric against alternate expectations of the future, it shows consistent results with previous studies that economic growth dominates the improvement of FAA. As we increase our ambition to achieve stringent climate targets, two policy conditions tend to have large impacts on FAA driven by competing land use and increasing food prices. Strict conservation policies leave the competition between bioenergy and agriculture production on existing commercial land, while pricing terrestrial carbon encourages large-scale afforestation. To avoid unintended outcomes to food availability and access for the poor, pricing land emissions in frontier forests has the advantage of selecting more productive land for agricultural activities compared to the full conservation approach, but the land carbon price should not be linked to the price of energy system emissions. These results are highly relevant to effective policy-making to reduce land use change emissions, such as the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

The Upper Valanginian (Early Cretaceous) positive carbon-isotope event recorded in terrestrial plants

Our understanding of the ancient ocean-atmosphere system has focused on oceanic proxies. However, the study of terrestrial proxies is equally necessary to constrain our understanding of ancient climates and linkages between the terrestrial and oceanic carbon reservoirs. We have analyzed carbon-isotope ratios from fossil plant material through the Valanginian and Lower Hauterivian from a shallow-marine, ammonite-constrained succession in the Crimean Peninsula of the southern Ukraine in order to determine if the Upper Valanginian positive carbon-isotope excursion is expressed in the atmosphere. delta(13)C(plant) values fluctuate around -23% to -22% for the Valanginian-Hauterivian, except during the Upper Valanginian where delta(13)C(plant) values record a positive excursion to similar to-18%. Based upon ammonite biostratigraphy from Crimea, and in conjunction with a composite Tethyan marine delta(13)C(carb) curve, several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the delta(13)C(plant) record indicates that the atmospheric carbon reservoir was affected; (2) the defined ammonite correlations between Europe and Crimea are synchronous; and (3) a change in photosynthetic carbon-isotope fractionation, caused by a decrease in atmospheric PCO2, occurred during the Upper Valanginian Positive delta(13)C excursion. Our new data, combined with other paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information, indicate that the Upper Valanginian was a cool period (icehouse) and highlights that the Cretaceous period was interrupted by periods of cooling and was not an equable climate as previously thought. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large inert carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum

During each of the late Pleistocene glacial–interglacial transitions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose by almost 100 ppm. The sources of this carbon are unclear, and efforts to identify them are hampered by uncertainties in the magnitude of carbon reservoirs and fluxes under glacial conditions. Here we use oxygen isotope measurements from air trapped in ice cores and ocean carbon-cycle modelling to estimate terrestrial and oceanic gross primary productivity during the Last Glacial Maximum. We find that the rate of gross terrestrial primary production during the Last Glacial Maximum was about 40±10 Pg C yr−1, half that of the pre-industrial Holocene. Despite the low levels of photosynthesis, we estimate that the late glacial terrestrial biosphere contained only 330 Pg less carbon than pre-industrial levels. We infer that the area covered by carbon-rich but unproductive biomes such as tundra and cold steppes was significantly larger during the Last Glacial Maximum, consistent with palaeoecological data. Our data also indicate the presence of an inert carbon pool of 2,300 Pg C, about 700 Pg larger than the inert carbon locked in permafrost today. We suggest that the disappearance of this carbon pool at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum may have contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.