东北亚构造-盆地演化及油气资源控制作用

The oil and gas potential of Northeast Asia is enormous, but the degree of exploration is very low in Northeast Asia (the degree is below 3%-10%).The reasons are as follows: First, it is relatively difficult to study the oil and gas bearing basins(OGB), which are of multiple types, in different tectonic settings, with complex geologic frameworks and with long-term geologic evolution. Secondly, because of the non-equilibrium in development of economy and regional market, application of theories and techniques and the research levels in different countries, the conclusions are not conformable, and even contradictory. Thirdly, most of the former researches were limited to one territory or one basin, and lack of systematical and in-depth study on geotectonic evolution, classification of basins, and the evaluation of hydrocarbon resources. In this thesis, integrated study of the regional tectonic feature and basin features of Northeast Asia was done, to understand the basin evolution history and the controlling action on oil and gas. Then, new conclusions are and exploration proposals are as following: 1. Geotectonic evolution in Northeast Asia: The main structural motion system in Paleozoic Era was longitudinal, and in Meso-cenozoic was latitudinal with the Pacific Ocean. The whole evolution history was just the one of pulling-apart, cutting-out, underthrusting and collision of the Central Asia- Mongolia Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. 2. The evolution characteristics of basins in Northeast Asia: mainly developed from longitudinal paste-up, collision and relaxation rifting motion in Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic Era and from underthrust, accretion, and receding of subducted zone of the Pacific Ocean in Late Mesozoic Era-Cenozoic Era. 3. The research in basin classification of Northeast Asia: According to geotectonic system, the basins can be classified into three types: intracratonic, pericratonic and active zone basin. And they can be further classified into 18 different types according to genetic mechanism and dynamic features. 4. The master control factors of oil and gas accumulation in Northeast Asia: high quality cap-rock for craton and pericrationic basin, the effective source rock and high quality cap-rock for Mesozoic rifted basins, intra-arc, fore-arc and back-arc basins. Graded exploration potential of oil and gas for basin in Northeast Asia according to 7 factor, hereby, divided the oil and gas potential of basins into 5 levels. 5. Evaluation of hydrocarbon resources: The difference of resource potential among these basins is huge in Northeast Asia. The evaluation of Mesozoic rifted basin and Pacific Ocean basin showed that the large scale rifted basin and retroarc basin(including backarc marginal sea basin) have great resource potential. 6. The writer believes that the next step should pay more attention to the evaluation of petroleum resource in Far East part of Russia and trace them. On the other hand, according to integrated analysis of oil/gas resource potential and the operation difficulty in this area, suggests that East-Siberia basin, East-Gobi-Tamchag basin, Sakhalin basin, North-Okhotck basin, West-Kamchatka basin could be as cooperation priority basins in future.

东海陆架盆地复杂天然气藏地震勘探判别技术研究

Exploration study proves that East sea shelf basin embeds abundant hydrocarbon resources. However, the exploration knowledge of this area is very low. Many problems in exploration are encountered here. One of them is that the gas reservoir of this area, with rapid lateral variation, is deeply buried. Correlation of Impendence between sandstone, gas sand and shale is very poor. Another problem is that the S/N ratio of the seismic data is very low and multiples are relatively productive which seriously affect reservoir identification. Resolution of the seismic data reflected from 2500-3000 meter is rather low, which seriously affects the application of hydrocarbon direct identification (HDI) technology. This research established a fine geological & geophysical model based on drilling、well logging、geology&seismic data of East sea Lishui area. A Q value extraction method from seismic data is proposed. With this method, Q value inversion from VSP data and seismic data is performed to determine the subsurface absorption of this area. Then wave propagation and absorption rule are in control. Field acquisition design can be directed. And at the same time, with the optimization of source system, the performance of high resolution seismic acquisition layout system is enhanced. So the firm foundation is ensured for east sea gas reservoir exploration. For solving the multiple and amplitude preserving problems during the seismic data processing, wave equation pre-stack amplitude preservation migration and wave equation feedback iteratively multiple attenuation technologies are developed. Amplitude preservation migration technology can preserve the amplitude of imaging condition and wave-field extrapolation. Multiple removing technology is independent of seismic source wavelet and velocity model, which avoiding the weakness of Delft method. Aiming at the complicated formation condition of the gas reservoir in this area, with dissecting typical hydrocarbon reservoir, a series of pertinent advanced gas reservoir seismic identification technologies such as petrophysical properties analyzing and seismic modeling technology、pre-stack/post-stack joint elastic inversion, attribute extraction technology based on seismic non-stationary signal theory and formation absorption characteristic and so on are studied and developed. Integrated analysis of pre-stack/post-stack seismic data, reservoir information, rock physics and attribute information is performed. And finally, a suit of gas reservoir identification technology is built, according to the geological and geophysical characteristics of this area. With developed innovative technologies, practical application and intergrated interpretation appraisal researches are carried out in Lishui 36-1.The validity of these technologies is tested and verified. Also the hydrocarbon charging possibility and position of those three east sea gas exploration targets are clearly pointed out.

残留盆地分布综合地球物理研究——以大港地区为例

Macro-distribution of residual basins is a basic question in residual basin research，the main object of macro-distribution study is to build strata framework, compute thickness of residual strata and analyze characteristics of residual basins. With the guidance of the theory of integrated geology and geophysical research, the paper assembled series of methods and established the technical chart based on gravity and magnetic data, with restriction of geology, seismic and drilling data. Based on potential field data processing and analysis, forward and inverse computation, region potential field analysis and potential field separation, etc. it computed depth of gravity/magnetic basement and got strata framework. It had got effective results in the research of macro-distribution of residual basin research in the Dagang area. It did the wavelet transform of gravity/magnetic data with multi-kind of wavelet basis using a trou algorithm. From comparison of processing result and their spectral of wavelet analysis, up continuation and filter method, the wavelet approximation is better to fit the regional potential field, and it is an effective method to separate gravity/magnetic effect caused by deep geology bodies. The experiment of matching pursuit shows that te transform domain methods have great advantage in potential data analysis. From the integrated geophysical study of rock property study, gravity/magnetic basement inversion and fault system analysis of the Dagang area, it gets the strata framework and the thickness of pre-Cenozoic residual strata. Comprehensive study with gravity and magnetotelluric profile inversion and interpretation, three prospect plays of macro-distribution of residual basins are fingered out. It has great residual strata thickness in the northern part of Chengning Uplift and there is thrust fault in the deep zone and good up-Paleozoic hydrocarbon source rocks in this area. With integrated analysis, this area will be the most prospective hydrocarbon location of pre-Cenozoic residual basins.

油气输导体系研究及应用─以准噶尔盆地东部白家海凸起侏罗系为例

Baijiahai uplift is an important hydrocarbon accumulation belt in eastern Jungger Basin, on which Cainan oilfield and lithologic hydrocarbon reservoir named Cai 43 have been discovered and both of them share the same target formation of Jurassic. However, in the subsequent exploration at this region, several wells that designed for lithologic traps of Jurassic were eventually failed, and that indicates the controlling factors of lithologic reservoir distribution are far more complicated than our previous expectation. This dissertation set the strata of the Jurassic in well Cai 43 region as the target, and based on the integrated analysis of structure evolution、fault sealing ability、simulations of sedimentary microfacies and reservoir beds、distribution analysis of high porosity-high permeability carrier beds、drive forces of hydrocarbons、preferential conduit system and conduit model as well as critical values of the reservoir physical properties for hydrocarbon charging, a special method that different from the conventional way to predict favorable lithologic traps was established. And with this method the controlling factors of the hydrocarbon reservoirs formation are figured out, and further more, the favorable exploration targets are point out. At Baijiahai uplift, fault plays as a crucial factor in the process of the hydrocarbon reservoir formation. In this study, it is found out that the availability of a fault that work as the seal for oil and gas are different. The critical value of the lateral mudstone smear factor (Kssf), which is used to measure the lateral sealing ability of fault, for oil is 3.9 while that for gas is 2.1; and the critical value of vertical sealing factor (F), which similarly a measurement for the vertical sealing ability of fault, for oil is 7.3 while that for gas is 5.1. Dongdaohaizi fault belt that possessed well lateral sealing ability since later Cretaceous have bad vertical sealing ability in later Cretaceous, however, it turns to be well now. Based on the comparison of the physical properties that respectively obtained from electronic log calculating、conventional laboratory rock analysis and the additive-pressure bearing laboratory rock analysis, we established the functions through which the porosity and permeability obtained though conventional method can be converted to the values of the subsurface conditions. With this method, the porosity and permeability of the Jurassic strata at the time of previous Tertiary and that in nowadays are reconstructed respectively, and then the characteristics of the distribution of high porosity-high permeability carrier beds in the evolution processes are determined. With the result of these works, it is found that both well Cai 43 region and Cainan oilfield are located on the preferential conduit direction of hydrocarbon migration. This conclusion is consistent with the result of the fluid potential analysis, in which fluid potential of nowadays and that of later Cretaceous are considered. At the same times, experiment of hydrocarbon injection into the addictive-pressure bearing rock is designed and conducted, from which it is found that, for mid-permeability cores of Jurassic, 0.03MPa is the threshold values for the hydrocarbon charging. And here, the conception of lateral pressure gradient is proposed to describe the lateral driving force for hydrocarbon migration. With this conception, it is found that hydrocarbons largely distributed in the areas where lateral pressure gradient is greater than 0. 03MPa/100m. Analysis of critical physical properties indicated that the value of the critical porosity and critical permeability varied with burial depth, and it is the throat radius of a certain reservoir bed that works as a key factor in controlling hydrocarbon content. Three parameters are proposed to describe the critical physical properties in this dissertation, which composite of effective oil-bearing porosity、effective oil-bearing permeability and preferential flow coefficient. And found that critical physical properties, at least to some extent, control the hydrocarbon distribution of Jurassic in Baijiahai uplift. Synthesize the content discussed above, this dissertation analyzed the key factors i.e., critical physical properties、driving force、conduit system and fluid potential, which controlled the formation of the lithologic reservoir in Baijiahai uplift. In all of which conduit system and fluid potential determined the direction of hydrocarbon migration, and substantially they are critical physical properties of reservoir bed and the lateral pressure gradient that controlled the eventually hydrocarbon distribution. At the same times, sand bodies in the major target formation that are recognized by reservoir bed simulation are appraised, then predict favorite direction of the next step exploration of lithologic reservoir.

东营凹陷下第三系岩性油气藏形成条件与预测

The Dongying depression, located in the northern part of the jiyang Sag in the Buohaiwan Basin, comprises one of the major oil-producing bases of the Shengli oil-field. The prediction and exploration of subtle or litho1ogical oil traps in the oil-field has become the major confronted target. This is also one of the frontier study areas in the highly-explored oil-bearing basins in East China and abroad. Based on the integrated analysis of the geological, seismic and logging data and the theories of sequence stratigraphy, tectono-stratigraphy and petroleum system, the paper has attempted to document the characteristics of the sequence stratigraphic and structural frameworks of the low Tertiary, the syndepositional faults and their control on deposition, and then to investigate the forming conditions and distribution of the tithological oil traps in the depression. The study has set up a set of analysis methods, which can be used to effectively analysis the sequence stratigraphy of inland basins and predict the distribution of sandstone reservoirs in the basins. The major achievements of the study are as follows: 1. The low Tertiary can be divided into 4 second-order sequences and 13 third-order sequences, and the systems tracts in the third-order sequences have been also identified based on the examination and correction of well logging data and seismic profiles. At the same time, the parasequences and their stacking pattern in the deltaic systems of the third member of the Shahejie Formation have been recognized in the key study area. It has been documented that the genetic relation of different order sequences to tectonic, climatic and sediment supply changes. The study suggested that the formation of the second-order sequences was related to multiple rifting, while the activity of the syndepositional faults controlled the stacking pattern of parasequences of the axial deltaic system in the depression. 2. A number of depositional facies have been recognized in the low Tertiary on the basis of seismic facies and well logging analysis. They include alluvial fan, fan delta or braided delta, axial delta, lowstand fan, lacustrine and gravity flow deposits. The lacustrine lowstand fan deposits are firstly recognized in the depression, and their facies architecture and distribution have been investigated. The study has shown that the lowstand fan deposits are the important sandstone reservoirs as lithological oil traps in the depression. 3. The mapping of depositional systems within sequences has revealed the time and special distrbution of depositional systems developed in the basin. It is pointed out that major elastic systems comprise the northern marginal depositional systems consisting of alluvial fan, fan delta and offshore lowstand fan deposits, the southern gentle slope elastic deposits composed of shallow lacustrine, braided delta and lowstand fan deposits and the axial deltaic systems including those from eastern and western ends of the depression. 4. The genetic relationship between the syndepositional faults and the distribution of sandstones has been studied in the paper, upper on the analysis of structural framework and syndepositional fault systems in the depression. The concept of structural slope-break has been firstly introduced into the study and the role of syndepositional faults controlling the development of sequence architecture and distribution of sandstones along the hinged and faulted margins have been widely investigated. It is suggested that structural styles of the structural slope-break controlled the distribution of lowstand fan deposits and formed a favorable zone for the formation of lithological or structure-lithological oil traps in the basin. 5. The paper has made a deep investigation into the forming condition and processes of the lithological traps in the depression, based the analysis of composition of reservoir, seal and resource rocks. It is pointed out that there were two major oil pool-forming periods, namely the end of the Dongying and Guangtao periods, and the later one is the most important. 6. The study has finally predicted a number of favorable targets for exploration of lithologieal traps in the depression. Most of them have been drilled and made great succeed with new discovered thousands tons of raw oil reserves.

植物稳定同位素多尺度、高分辨率古气候信息综合辨识-以安图红松和红原泥炭为例

植物稳定同位素气候学因其具有坚实的理论基础，在古气候研究中倍受关注。同位素“语言”对气候变化的记录是一种“精确”记录。近30多年来，大量科学家不懈努力，提出并完善了植物C、H、O同位素分馏模型，为全球气候变化提供了理想的研究手段。古气候研究面临空前的机遇和挑战；不论是气候规律的发掘以及气候驱动机制的探讨，均需要大力加强。作者利用植物同位素气候学这一理想的研究“工具”，分别选取树轮和泥炭气候历史档案库作为信息载体，开展了中国全新世以来高分辨率、多时间尺度的气候信息综合辨识。我的工作表明：植物稳定同位素组成是理想的气候代用指标。树轮、泥炭档案库相结合，可以获得多尺度（年际、代际、百年以及千年时间尺度）、高分辨率气候信息，对于认识全球气候变化规律以及深入探讨全球气候动力学机制是十分重要的。1、安图红松树轮同位素气候代用记录研究（1）安图红松树轮同位素组成受多种气象因子的联合作用，因而单一地将某一同位素指标与某一气象因子做回归分析所得结果不甚理想。本论文构建了“温度一湿度”复合气候指标，取得了理想的结果。研究发现，不论是树轮δ13C还是δ18O，均与5-8月温湿复合指标显著相关。重建的气候变化与《安图县志》记录的气候变化事件大多吻合。证明这种新的研究方案是可行的，值得在以后的工作中进一步加强。（2）安图红松树轮δ13C灵敏地记录了该区过去200年来5-7月低云量变化。综合分析各种气象要素之间的相关关系以及气象要素与树轮δ13C之间的相关关系，作者认为，低云量对树轮δ13C的影响是一种间接影响。低云量非常显著地影响日照强度以及降雨量等气象因子，进而借助于日照强度及降雨量等气象因子在树轮δ13C中留下自身的变化“印记”。（3）功率谱分析证明，安图红松树轮δ13C、δ18O序列均包含了显著的准2年周期、准4年周期、准10-8年周期。分别是对东亚夏季风准两年振荡（QBO），ENSO准4年周期，太阳活动准11年周期的响应。（4）作者在传统树轮氢、氧同位素分馏模型基础上，同时引入“交换因子”和“蒸腾因子”两个新参数，改进了树轮氢、氧同位素分馏模型。改进的模型能利用树轮H、O同位素组成较准确模拟大气降水H、O同位素组成。改进的模型采用“自适应”方式，具有很大的灵活性，可望用于“用泥炭同位素组成模拟大气降水同位素组成”这项研究中。2、红原泥炭氧同位素气候代用记录研究（1）过去6000年来，红原温度变化趋势与金川、敦德温度变化趋势有很好的相似性，证明中国大多地区温度变化趋势是一致的。6000～4000aBP平均温度水平较低；4000-1500 aBP平均温度水平较高；1500aBP至今平均温度水平相对较低。4000aBP和1500aBP是近6000年温度变化序列中两个显著的转折点。（2）红原温度变化序列中记录到一系列低温突变，这些突变事件与金川、敦德、格陵兰、北大西洋，等等，广泛区域内温度突变事件具有很好的一致性。特别地，每当一次低温突变事件发生，通常有相应的社会结构重整、社会崩溃、古文明坍塌等重大历史事件与之对应。这进一步证实，气候变化（特别是气候突变）对整个社会经济和文明的冲击是十分明显的。（3）近6000年红原、金川温度变化趋势与大气14C变化趋势非常相似，暗示中国地区温度变化的主要驱动力来自太阳活动。功率谱分析进一步证实了这一结论。功率谱分析中最显著的周期信号是88-yr和123-127-yr年周期，体现了一种典型的世纪尺度温度变化特征。3、综合讨论（1）“红原-金川”平均温度变化趋势显示，近千年中国平均温度变化与经典的太阳活动极小期，如Darton极小、Maunder极小、sp6rer极小、oort极小，等等，表现一致。表明中国气温变化主要驱动力来自太阳活动。大约在1050-1250AD期间，中国温度水平较高。而同期大气14C，南极冰心10Be以及模拟的总太阳辐射等均表明太阳活动处于较高水平。大量树轮记录也表明近百年中国并无异常升温。这些资料表明，最近百年气温变化可能并未超出自然变率。（2）提出了“大洋温盐环流一季风”概念模型。这一模型能很好解释北大西洋温度突变与印度洋夏季风突变的一致性、中国东北和西南长期降雨趋势的反相性、北太平洋（温盐环流上翻区）温度记录与北大西洋温度记录的“跷跷板”效应（seesaw effect），等等。大洋温盐环流可能是主宰印度洋夏季风区、东亚夏季风区长期干湿变迁的主要因素。

The Cost of Sustainability Capital and the Creation of Sustainable Value by Companies

We develop and apply a valuation methodology to calculate the cost of sustainability capital, and, eventually, sustainable value creation of companies. Sustainable development posits that decisions must take into account all forms of capital rather than just economic capital. We develop a methodology that allows calculation of the costs that are associated with the use of different forms of capital. Our methodology borrows the idea from financial economics that the return on capital has to cover the cost of capital. Capital costs are determined as opportunity costs, that is, the forgone returns that would have been created by alternative investments. We apply and extend the logic of opportunity costs to the valuation not only of economic capital but also of other forms of capital. This allows (a) integrated analysis of use of different forms of capital based on a value-based aggregation of different forms of capital, (b) determination of the opportunity cost of a bundle of different forms of capital used in a company, called cost of sustainability capital, (c) calculation of sustainability efficiency of companies, and (d) calculation of sustainable value creation, that is, the value above the cost of sustainability capital. By expanding the well-established logic of the valuation of economic capital in financial markets to cover other forms of capital, we provide a methodology that allows determination of the most efficient allocation of sustainability capital for sustainable value creation in companies. We demonstrate the practicability of the methodology by the valuation of the sustainability performance of British Petroleum (BP).

The mitochondrial and autosomal mutation landscapes of prostate cancer

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most common cancer in men. PCa is strongly age associated; low death rates in surveillance cohorts call into question the widespread use of surgery, which leads to overtreatment and a reduction in quality of life. There is a great need to increase the understanding of tumor characteristics in the context of disease progression.

OBJECTIVE: To perform the first multigenome investigation of PCa through analysis of both autosomal and mitochondrial DNA, and to integrate exome sequencing data, and RNA sequencing and copy-number alteration (CNA) data to investigate how various different tumor characteristics, commonly analyzed separately, are interconnected.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Exome sequencing was applied to 64 tumor samples from 55 PCa patients with varying stage and grade. Integrated analysis was performed on a core set of 50 tumors from which exome sequencing, CNA, and RNA sequencing data were available.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Genes, mutated at a significantly higher rate relative to a genomic background, were identified. In addition, mitochondrial and autosomal mutation rates were correlated to CNAs and proliferation, assessed as a cell cycle gene expression signature.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Genes not previously reported to be significantly mutated in PCa, such as cell division cycle 27 homolog (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) (CDC27), myeloid/lymphoid or mixed-lineage leukemia 3 (MLL3), lysine (K)-specific demethylase 6A (KDM6A), and kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) were identified. The mutation rate in the mitochondrial genome was 55 times higher than that of the autosomes. Multilevel analysis demonstrated a tight correlation between high reactive-oxygen exposure, chromosomal damage, high proliferation, and in parallel, a transition from multiclonal indolent primary PCa to monoclonal aggressive disease. As we only performed targeted sequence analysis; copy-number neutral rearrangements recently described for PCa were not accounted for.

CONCLUSIONS: The mitochondrial genome displays an elevated mutation rate compared to the autosomal chromosomes. By integrated analysis, we demonstrated that different tumor characteristics are interconnected, providing an increased understanding of PCa etiology.

Gene regulatory mechanisms underpinning prostate cancer susceptibility

Molecular characterization of genome-wide association study (GWAS) loci can uncover key genes and biological mechanisms underpinning complex traits and diseases. Here we present deep, high-throughput characterization of gene regulatory mechanisms underlying prostate cancer risk loci. Our methodology integrates data from 295 prostate cancer chromatin immunoprecipitation and sequencing experiments with genotype and gene expression data from 602 prostate tumor samples. The analysis identifies new gene regulatory mechanisms affected by risk locus SNPs, including widespread disruption of ternary androgen receptor (AR)-FOXA1 and AR-HOXB13 complexes and competitive binding mechanisms. We identify 57 expression quantitative trait loci at 35 risk loci, which we validate through analysis of allele-specific expression. We further validate predicted regulatory SNPs and target genes in prostate cancer cell line models. Finally, our integrated analysis can be accessed through an interactive visualization tool. This analysis elucidates how genome sequence variation affects disease predisposition via gene regulatory mechanisms and identifies relevant genes for downstream biomarker and drug development.

Effect of vehicle characteristics on safety, fuel use and emissions

Nos últimos anos, o número de vítimas de acidentes de tráfego por milhões de habitantes em Portugal tem sido mais elevado do que a média da União Europeia. Ao nível nacional torna-se premente uma melhor compreensão dos dados de acidentes e sobre o efeito do veículo na gravidade do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta investigação consistiu no desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão da gravidade do acidente, para o caso de um único veículo envolvido e para caso de uma colisão, envolvendo dois veículos. Além disso, esta investigação compreendeu o desenvolvimento de uma análise integrada para avaliar o desempenho do veículo em termos de segurança, eficiência energética e emissões de poluentes. Os dados de acidentes foram recolhidos junto da Guarda Nacional Republicana Portuguesa, na área metropolitana do Porto para o período de 2006-2010. Um total de 1,374 acidentes foram recolhidos, 500 acidentes envolvendo um único veículo e 874 colisões. Para a análise da segurança, foram utilizados modelos de regressão logística. Para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o efeito das características do veículo no risco de feridos graves e/ou mortos (variável resposta definida como binária) foi explorado. Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos foram criadas duas variáveis binárias adicionais: uma para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos num dos veículos (designado como veículo V1) e outra para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no outro veículo envolvido (designado como veículo V2). Para ultrapassar o desafio e limitações relativas ao tamanho da amostra e desigualdade entre os casos analisados (apenas 5.1% de acidentes graves), foi desenvolvida uma metodologia com base numa estratégia de reamostragem e foram utilizadas 10 amostras geradas de forma aleatória e estratificada para a validação dos modelos. Durante a fase de modelação, foi analisado o efeito das características do veículo, como o peso, a cilindrada, a distância entre eixos e a idade do veículo. Para a análise do consumo de combustível e das emissões, foi aplicada a metodologia CORINAIR. Posteriormente, os dados das emissões foram modelados de forma a serem ajustados a regressões lineares. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido um indicador de análise integrada (denominado “SEG”) que proporciona um método de classificação para avaliar o desempenho do veículo ao nível da segurança rodoviária, consumos e emissões de poluentes.Face aos resultados obtidos, para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o modelo de previsão do risco de gravidade identificou a idade e a cilindrada do veículo como estatisticamente significativas para a previsão de ocorrência de feridos graves e/ou mortos, ao nível de significância de 5%. A exatidão do modelo foi de 58.0% (desvio padrão (D.P.) 3.1). Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos, ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V1, a cilindrada do veículo oposto (veículo V2) aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V1, ao nível de significância de 10%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V1 revelou um bom desempenho, com uma exatidão de 61.2% (D.P. 2.4). Ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V2, a cilindrada do veículo V1 aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V2, ao nível de significância de 5%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V2 também revelou um desempenho satisfatório, com uma exatidão de 40.5% (D.P. 2.1). Os resultados do indicador integrado SEG revelaram que os veículos mais recentes apresentam uma melhor classificação para os três domínios: segurança, consumo e emissões. Esta investigação demonstra que não existe conflito entre a componente da segurança, a eficiência energética e emissões relativamente ao desempenho dos veículos.

Avaliação da gestão curricular da matemática : cursos profissionais III

No mundo do trabalho, designadamente na indústria, acentua-se o défice de competências matemáticas nos profissionais da indústria, particularmente a Modelação Matemática, facto que constitui uma preocupação crescente à escala mundial e, obviamente, do sistema educativo português e da comunidade matemática nacional. Este défice é justificado pela falta de formação dos professores em contexto industrial e, de acordo com a National Council of Teachers of Mathematics, pela incapacidade que muitos docentes têm em apresentar a Matemática aplicada a situações laborais. Face à relevância social, económica e política da problemática descrita, centrou-se o presente estudo na Avaliação da Gestão Curricular da Matemática nos Cursos Profissionais de nível III do ensino secundário em Portugal, com enfoque na Modelação Matemática que, segundo os referentes internacionais, é simultaneamente uma competência e uma metodologia de ensino promotora do desenvolvimento de competências matemáticas nos profissionais da indústria. No contexto da gestão do currículo da Matemática para os cursos profissionais de nível III em escolas secundárias portuguesas, desenvolveu-se o presente estudo para se responder à questão de investigação: Em que medida a gestão curricular da Matemática, instituída, intencional e implementada nos cursos profissionais de nível III contempla situações-problema, suscetíveis de promover o desenvolvimento de competências no aluno, relevantes para o seu desempenho profissional? Construiu-se um referencial de avaliação, centrado na dimensão ecológica, segundo o modelo teórico Enfoque Ontosemiótico, abarcando um conjunto de sub-dimensões sobre as quais foram definidos critérios e respetivos indicadores. De realçar, ainda, que o referencial, além de ter servido de instrumento de avaliação da gestão curricular da Matemática nos cursos profissionais de nível III do ensino secundário, serviu, também, como guia orientador no desenho das sete situações-problema de natureza de Modelação Matemática no estudo de funções. O enquadramento metodológico do presente estudo assentou no método Estudo de Caso. Para analisar o caso, selecionaram-se sete unidades integradas de análise, a saber: a gestão curricular da Matemática de cada um dos seis professores participantes e a gestão curricular da Matemática instituída pelos normativos oficiais (programa da componente de formação científica da disciplina de Matemática para os cursos profissionais). Para a análise dos dados empíricos, respeitantes à gestão instituída, recorreuse à análise de conteúdo e teve essencialmente como propósito avaliar em que medida as orientações curriculares, emanadas no Programa da componente de formação científica disciplina de Matemática para os cursos profissionais de nível III, estão em conformidade com os referenciais teóricos. Sequencialmente, a operacionalização da avaliação intencional consubstanciou-se nos planos das aulas cedidos previamente a cada observação. A análise de conteúdo, como técnica de tratamento dos dados empíricos, foi a forma de se aceder às intenções de cada professor participante no estudo. A observação de aulas sucedeu à avaliação do plano de aula, constituindo a forma de avaliar in loco a gestão curricular da Matemática implementada, permitindo avaliar a coerência das observações com as intenções expressas nas planificações. Os registos das observações foram concretizados sob a forma de notas de campo que incluem uma componente descritiva e outra reflexiva que se dirigem para a análise dos dados empíricos recolhidos. Em termos de resultados, a avaliação da gestão curricular instituída foi reveladora de que o postulado pelos referentes para o desenvolvimento de competências tem a sua representação nas orientações curriculares expressas no Programa da componente de formação científica da disciplina de Matemática para os cursos profissionais de nível III. Contrariamente, a gestão curricular da Matemática pelos professores participantes revelou-se muito condicionada ao cumprimento dos conteúdos propostos pelo programa da disciplina. Por conseguinte, a gestão curricular da Matemática por competências, enfatizada no Programa (gestão instituída), encontrou, neste estudo, pouca tradução na gestão curricular intencional e implementada dos professores participantes, na medida em que a mesma não refletiu uma articulação com a componente de formação técnica do curso, visando uma metodologia proactiva no desenho de situações-problema promotoras de desenvolver, nos alunos, competências profícuas para a sua profissão, nomeadamente a Modelação Matemática. De salientar, ainda, que uma percentagem muito significativa de situações-problema propostas pelos professores não são, no geral, pertinentes para os respetivos cursos, não sendo, neste sentido, promotoras do estabelecimento de ligação com a futura performance profissional dos alunos. Tal lacuna parece ter resultado da ausência de trabalho colaborativo entre os professores de Matemática e os restantes docentes que constituem a equipa formativa do curso, lacuna que dificulta a articulação e coordenação em prol de um ensino contextualizado, ou ainda pela ausência de formação contínua pelos professores, no âmbito de temáticas inerentes à gestão curricular a cursos profissionais.

A aprendizagem do conceito de limite no 11º ano de escolaridade

Relatório da Prática de Ensino Supervisionada, Mestrado em Ensino da Matemática, Universidade de Lisboa, 2015

Geossintéticos em vias de comunicação: influência das condições climáticas

Trabalho de Dissertação de Natureza Científica para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil na Área de Especialização de Vias de Comunicação e Transportes

Sustentabilidade dos Georrecursos: Proposta de Definição de Índice de Sustentabilidade para Pedreiras Produtoras de Agregados

As atuais políticas industriais procuram conjugar os objetivos económicos com direitos sociais e ambientais através da aplicação de políticas de desenvolvimento sustentável. A gestão coordenada destes três capítulos visa contribuir para o bem‐estar e progressiva melhoria da qualidade de vida dos cidadãos. Esta Tese de Mestrado tem por objetivo a aplicação de um sistema de avaliação de pedreiras produtoras de agregados partindo da análise integrada de indicadores setoriais nas áreas económica, social e ambiental. Deste modo é proposto o desenvolvimento de um método de avaliação que permita proceder a uma análise qualitativa e quantitativa do desempenho de pedreiras do ponto de vista da sua sustentabilidade. Numa abordagem inicial, enquadradora das questões que se levantam com as políticas de desenvolvimento sustentável, é feita uma introdução relativa às correntes de pensamento dominantes sobre esta questão, tendo ainda sido feito um relacionamento entre as questões ligadas com o planeamento estratégico deste setor industrial e as questões ligadas com o ordenamento do território. Posteriormente, é feita uma análise do enquadramento do setor extrativo relativo à exploração de pedreiras no âmbito das políticas económicas, sociais e ambientais da Comunidade Europeia e uma caracterização da importância deste setor industrial na economia portuguesa. Após o desenvolvimento destas questões, é dada sequência ao trabalho desenvolvido na adoção e criação de indicadores económicos, sociais e ambientais adaptados à situação particular das pedreiras produtoras de inertes portuguesas. Finalmente, é proposto o desenvolvimento de um método de cálculo tendo em vista a criação de um Índice de Sustentabilidade a partir da análise dos resultados dos indicadores setoriais anteriormente referidos. Assim, é apresentada uma súmula de conclusões sobre este tipo de abordagem, suas vantagens e inconvenientes relativamente aos métodos tradicionais de avaliação deste tipo de indústria. É, por último, apresentado um conjunto de sugestões que permitam a utilização na rotina, de forma acessível, desta nova ferramenta de análise.

Genomic, Epigenomic and Transcriptomic Molecular Characterization of Splenic Marginal Zone Lymphoma Reveals Recurrent Abnormalities in miR-182

Splenic marginal zone lymphoma (SMZL) is a low grade B-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The molecular pathology of this entity remains poorly understood. To characterise this lymphoma at the molecular level, we performed an integrated analysis of 1) genome wide genetic copy number alterations 2) gene expression profiles and 3) epigenetic DNA methylation profiles.We have previously shown that SMZL is characterised by recurrent alterations of chromosomes 7q, 6q, 3q, 9q and 18; however, gene resolution oligonucleotide array comparative genomic hybridisation did not reveal evidence of cryptic amplification or deletion in these regions. The most frequently lost 7q32 region contains a cluster of miRNAs. qRT-PCR revealed that three of these (miR-182/96/183) show underexpression in SMZL, and miR-182 is somatically mutated in >20% of cases of SMZL, as well as in >20% of cases of follicular lymphoma, and between 5-15% of cases of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, MALT-lymphoma and hairy cell leukaemia. We conclude that miR-182 is a strong candidate novel tumour suppressor miRNA in lymphoma.The overall gene expression signature of SMZL was found to be strongly distinct fromthose of other lymphomas. Functional analysis of gene expression data revealed SMZL to be characterised by abnormalities in B-cell receptor signalling (especially through the CD19/21-PI3K/AKT pathway) and apoptotic pathways. In addition, genes involved in the response to viral infection appeared upregulated. SMZL shows a unique epigenetic profile, but analysis of differentially methylated genes showed few with methylation related transcriptional deregulation, suggesting that DNA methylation abnormalities are not a critical component of the SMZL malignant phenotype.