Self-regularized pseudo time-marching schemes for structural system identification with static measurements

We explore the application of pseudo time marching schemes, involving either deterministic integration or stochastic filtering, to solve the inverse problem of parameter identification of large dimensional structural systems from partial and noisy measurements of strictly static response. Solutions of such non-linear inverse problems could provide useful local stiffness variations and do not have to confront modeling uncertainties in damping, an important, yet inadequately understood, aspect in dynamic system identification problems. The usual method of least-square solution is through a regularized Gauss-Newton method (GNM) whose results are known to be sensitively dependent on the regularization parameter and data noise intensity. Finite time, recursive integration of the pseudo-dynamical GNM (PD-GNM) update equation addresses the major numerical difficulty associated with the near-zero singular values of the linearized operator and gives results that are not sensitive to the time step of integration. Therefore, we also propose a pseudo-dynamic stochastic filtering approach for the same problem using a parsimonious representation of states and specifically solve the linearized filtering equations through apseudo-dynamic ensemble Kalman filter (PD-EnKF). For multiple sets ofmeasurements involving various load cases, we expedite the speed of the PD-EnKF by proposing an inner iteration within every time step. Results using the pseudo-dynamic strategy obtained through PD-EnKF and recursive integration are compared with those from the conventional GNM, which prove that the PD-EnKF is the best performer showing little sensitivity to process noise covariance and yielding reconstructions with less artifacts even when the ensemble size is small. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Towards building an intelligent decision support system for project management

Management of large projects, especially the ones in which a major component of R&D is involved and those requiring knowledge from diverse specialised and sophisticated fields, may be classified as semi-structured problems. In these problems, there is some knowledge about the nature of the work involved, but there are also uncertainties associated with emerging technologies. In order to draw up a plan and schedule of activities of such a large and complex project, the project manager is faced with a host of complex decisions that he has to take, such as, when to start an activity, for how long the activity is likely to continue, etc. An Intelligent Decision Support System (IDSS) which aids the manager in decision making and drawing up a feasible schedule of activities while taking into consideration the constraints of resources and time, will have a considerable impact on the efficient management of the project. This report discusses the design of an IDSS that helps in project planning phase through the scheduling phase. The IDSS uses a new project scheduling tool, the Project Influence Graph (PIG).

Tie lines and activities in the system NiO-MgO-SiO2 at 1373 K

The isothermal section of the phase diagram for the system NiO-MgO-SiO2 at 1373 K is established, The tie lines between (NiXMg1-X)O solid solution with rock salt structure and orthosilicate solid solution (NiYMg1-Y)Si0.5O2 and between orthosilicate and metasilicate (NiZMg1-Z)SiO3 crystalline solutions are determined using electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) and lattice parameter measurement on equilibrated samples, Although the monoxides and orthosilicates of Ni and Mg form a continuous range of solid solutions, the metasilicate phase exists only for 0 < Z < 0.096, The activity of NiO in the rock salt solid solution is determined as a function of composition and temperature in the range of 1023 to 1377 K using a solid state galvanic cell, The Gibbs energy of mixing of the monoxide solid solution can be expressed by a pseudo-subregular solution model: Delta G(ex) = X(1 - X)[(-2430 + 0.925T)X + (-5390 + 1.758T)(1 - X)] J/mol, The thermodynamic data for the rock salt phase are combined with information on interphase partitioning of Ni and Mg to generate the mixing properties for the orthosilicate and the metasilicate solid solutions, The regular solution model describes the orthosilicate and the metasilicate solid solutions at 1373 K within experimental uncertainties, The regular solution parameter Delta G(ex)/Y(1 - Y) is -820 (+/-70) J/mol for the orthosilicate solid solution, The corresponding value for the metasilicate solid solution is -220 (+/-150) J/mol, The derived activities for the orthosilicate solid solution are discussed in relation to the intracrystalline ion exchange equilibrium between M1 and M2 sites. The tie line information, in conjunction with the activity data for orthosilicate and metasilicate solid solutions, is used to calculate the Gibbs energy changes for the intercrystalline ion exchange reactions, Combining this with the known data for NiSi0.5O2, Gibbs energies of formation of MgSi0.5O2, MgSiO3, and metastable NiSiO3 are calculated, The Gibbs energy of formation of NiSiO3, from its component oxides, is equal to 7.67 (+/-0.6) kJ/mol at 1373 K.

A prototype of a first-responder indoor localization system

In this paper we present an approach to build a prototype. model of a first-responder localization system intended for disaster relief operations. This system is useful to monitor and track the positions of the first-responders in an indoor environment, where GPS is not available. Each member of the first responder team is equipped with two zero-velocity-update-aided inertial navigation systems, one on each foot, a camera mounted on a helmet, and a processing platform strapped around the waist of the first responder, which fuses the data from the different sensors. The fusion algorithm runs real-time on the processing platform. The video is also processed using the DSP core of the computing machine. The processed data consisting of position, velocity, heading information along with video streams is transmitted to the command and control system via a local infrastructure WiFi network. A centralized cooperative localization algorithm, utilizing the information from Ultra Wideband based inter-agent ranging devices combined with the position estimates and uncertainties of each first responder, has also been implemented.

Discrete time second order sliding mode observer for uncertain linear multi-output system

This paper presents a second order sliding mode observer (SOSMO) design for discrete time uncertain linear multi-output system. The design procedure is effective for both matched and unmatched bounded uncertainties and/or disturbances. A second order sliding function and corresponding sliding manifold for discrete time system are defined similar to the lines of continuous time counterpart. A boundary layer concept is employed to avoid switching across the defined sliding manifold and the sliding trajectory is confined to a boundary layer once it converges to it. The condition for existence of convergent quasi-sliding mode (QSM) is derived. The observer estimation errors satisfying given stability conditions converge to an ultimate finite bound (within the specified boundary layer) with thickness O(T-2) where T is the sampling period. A relation between sliding mode gain and boundary layer is established for the existence of second order discrete sliding motion. The design strategy is very simple to apply and is demonstrated for three examples with different class of disturbances (matched and unmatched) to show the effectiveness of the design. Simulation results to show the robustness with respect to the measurement noise are given for SOSMO and the performance is compared with pseudo-linear Kalman filter (PLKF). (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of The Franklin Institute

Basin Scale Water Resources Systems Modeling Under Cascading Uncertainties

Global change in climate and consequent large impacts on regional hydrologic systems have, in recent years, motivated significant research efforts in water resources modeling under climate change. In an integrated future hydrologic scenario, it is likely that water availability and demands will change significantly due to modifications in hydro-climatic variables such as rainfall, reservoir inflows, temperature, net radiation, wind speed and humidity. An integrated regional water resources management model should capture the likely impacts of climate change on water demands and water availability along with uncertainties associated with climate change impacts and with management goals and objectives under non-stationary conditions. Uncertainties in an integrated regional water resources management model, accumulating from various stages of decision making include climate model and scenario uncertainty in the hydro-climatic impact assessment, uncertainty due to conflicting interests of the water users and uncertainty due to inherent variability of the reservoir inflows. This paper presents an integrated regional water resources management modeling approach considering uncertainties at various stages of decision making by an integration of a hydro-climatic variable projection model, a water demand quantification model, a water quantity management model and a water quality control model. Modeling tools of canonical correlation analysis, stochastic dynamic programming and fuzzy optimization are used in an integrated framework, in the approach presented here. The proposed modeling approach is demonstrated with the case study of the Bhadra Reservoir system in Karnataka, India.

A Real-Time Sliding Mode Control for a Wind Energy System Based on a Doubly Fed Induction Generator

In this paper, a real time sliding mode control scheme for a variable speed wind turbine that incorporates a doubly feed induction generator is described. In this design, the so-called vector control theory is applied, in order to simplify the system electrical equations. The proposed control scheme involves a low computational cost and therefore can be implemented in real-time applications using a low cost Digital Signal Processor (DSP). The stability analysis of the proposed sliding mode controller under disturbances and parameter uncertainties is provided using the Lyapunov stability theory. A new experimental platform has been designed and constructed in order to analyze the real-time performance of the proposed controller in a real system. Finally, the experimental validation carried out in the experimental platform shows; on the one hand that the proposed controller provides high-performance dynamic characteristics, and on the other hand that this scheme is robust with respect to the uncertainties that usually appear in the real systems.

The vibro-acoustic analysis of built-up systems using a hybrid method with parametric and non-parametric uncertainties

An existing hybrid finite element (FE)/statistical energy analysis (SEA) approach to the analysis of the mid- and high frequency vibrations of a complex built-up system is extended here to a wider class of uncertainty modeling. In the original approach, the constituent parts of the system are considered to be either deterministic, and modeled using FE, or highly random, and modeled using SEA. A non-parametric model of randomness is employed in the SEA components, based on diffuse wave theory and the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble (GOE), and this enables the mean and variance of second order quantities such as vibrational energy and response cross-spectra to be predicted. In the present work the assumption that the FE components are deterministic is relaxed by the introduction of a parametric model of uncertainty in these components. The parametric uncertainty may be modeled either probabilistically, or by using a non-probabilistic approach such as interval analysis, and it is shown how these descriptions can be combined with the non-parametric uncertainty in the SEA subsystems to yield an overall assessment of the performance of the system. The method is illustrated by application to an example built-up plate system which has random properties, and benchmark comparisons are made with full Monte Carlo simulations. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CLF based designs with robustness to dynamic input uncertainties

The problem of robust stabilization of nonlinear systems in the presence of input uncertainties is of great importance in practical implementation. Stabilizing control laws may not be robust to this type of uncertainty, especially if cancellation of nonlinearities is used in the design. By exploiting a connection between robustness and optimality, "domination redesign" of the control Lyapunov function (CLF) based Sontag's formula has been shown to possess robustness to static and dynamic input uncertainties. In this paper we provide a sufficient condition for the domination redesign to apply. This condition relies on properties of local homogeneous approximations of the system and of the CLF. We show that an inverse optimal control law may not exist when these conditions are violated and illustrate how these conditions may guide the choice of a CLF which is suitable for domination redesign. © 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of ilities for protection against uncertainty in system design

The concepts of reliability, robustness, adaptability, versatility, resilience and flexibility have been used to describe how a system design can mitigate the likely impact of uncertainties without removing their sources. With the increasing number of publications on designing systems to have such ilities, there is a need to clarify the relationships between the different ideas. This short article introduces a framework to compare these different ways in which a system can be insensitive to uncertainty, clarifying their meaning in the context of complex system design. We focus on relationships between the ilities listed above and do not discuss in detail methods to design-for-ilities. © 2013 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis.

Computational approach for reliable and robust system-in-package design

A computational modelling approach integrated with optimisation and statistical methods that can aid the development of reliable and robust electronic packages and systems is presented. The design for reliability methodology is demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure. In this study the focus is on the procedure for representing the uncertainties in the package design parameters, their impact on reliability and robustness of the package design and how these can be included in the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of thermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is conducted using non-linear transient finite element simulations. Key system responses of interest, the fatigue life-time of the lead-free solder interconnects and warpage of the package, are predicted and used subsequently for design purposes. The design tasks are to identify the optimal SiP designs by varying several package input parameters so that the reliability and the robustness of the package are improved and in the same time specified performance criteria are also satisfied

Reliability based design optimisation for system-in-package

This paper discusses a reliability based optimisation modelling approach demonstrated for the design of a SiP structure integrated by stacking dies one upon the other. In this investigation the focus is on the strategy for handling the uncertainties in the package design inputs and their implementation into the design optimisation modelling framework. The analysis of fhermo-mechanical behaviour of the package is utilised to predict the fatigue life-time of the lead-free board level solder interconnects and warpage of the package under thermal cycling. The SiP characterisation is obtained through the exploitation of Reduced Order Models (ROM) constructed using high fidelity analysis and Design of Experiments (DoE) methods. The design task is to identify the optimal SiP design specification by varying several package input parameters so that a specified target reliability of the solder joints is achieved and in the same time design requirements and package performance criteria are met

Design for reliability for wafer level system in package

This paper discusses the Design for Reliability modelling of several System-in-Package (SiP) structures developed by NXP and advanced on the basis of Wafer Level Packaging (WLP). Two different types of Wafer Level SiP (WLSiP) are presented and discussed. The main focus is on the modelling approach that has been adopted to investigate and analyse the board level reliability of the presented SiP configurations. Thermo-mechanical non-linear Finite Element Analysis (FEA) is used to analyse the effect of various package design parameters on the reliability of the structures and to identify design trends towards package optimisation. FEA is used also to gain knowledge on moulded wafer shrinkage and related issues during the wafer level fabrication. The paper provides a brief outline and demonstration of a design methodology for reliability driven design optimisation of SiP. The study emphasises the advantages of applying the methodology to address complex design problems where several requirements may exist and uncertainties and interactions between parameters in the design are common.

Optimisation methodology for risk mitigation in advanced micro-system electronics manufacturing

This paper presents a design methodology based on numerical modelling, integrated with optimisation techniques and statistical methods, to aid the development of new advanced technologies in the area of micro and nano systems. The design methodology is demonstrated for a micro-machining process called Focused Ion Beam (FIB). This process has been modelled to provide knowledge of how a pre-defined geometry can be achieved through this direct milling. The geometry characterisation is obtained using a Reduced Order Models (ROM), generated from the results of a mathematical model of the Focused Ion Beam, and Design of Experiment (DoE) methods. In this work, the focus is on the design flow methodology which includes an approach on how to include process parameter uncertainties into the process optimisation modelling framework. A discussion on the impact of the process parameters, and their variations, on the quality and performance of the fabricated structure is also presented. The design task is to identify the optimal process conditions, by altering the process parameters, so that certain reliability and confidence of the application is achieved and the imposed constraints are satisfied. The software tools used and developed to demonstrate the design methodology are also presented.

A Transit Timing Analysis of Mine RISE Light Curves of the Exoplanet System TrES-3

We present nine newly observed transits of TrES-3, taken as part of a transit timing program using the RISE instrument on the Liverpool Telescope. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the planet star radius ratio and inclination of the system, which were found to be R-p/R-star = 0.1664(-0.0018)(+0.0011) and i = 81.73(-0.04)(+0.13), respectively, consistent with previous results. The central transit times and uncertainties were also calculated, using a residual-permutation algorithm as an independent check on the errors. A re-analysis of eight previously published TrES-3 light curves was conducted to determine the transit times and uncertainties using consistent techniques. Whilst the transit times were not found to be in agreement with a linear ephemeris, giving chi(2) = 35.07 for 15 degrees of freedom, we interpret this to be the result of systematics in the light curves rather than a real transit timing variation. This is because the light curves that show the largest deviation from a constant period either have relatively little out-of-transit coverage or have clear systematics. A new ephemeris was calculated using the transit times and was found to be T-c(0) = 2454632.62610 +/- 0.00006 HJD and P = 1.3061864 +/- 0.0000005 days. The transit times were then used to place upper mass limits as a function of the period ratio of a potential perturbing planet, showing that our data are sufficiently sensitive to have probed sub-Earth mass planets in both interior and exterior 2:1 resonances, assuming that the additional planet is in an initially circular orbit.