The impracticality of a universal drought definition

This paper demonstrates the impracticality of a comprehensive mathematical definition of the term `drought' which formalises the general qualitative definition that drought is `a deficit of water relative to normal conditions'. Starting from the local water balance, it is shown that a universal description of drought requires reference to water supply, demand and management. The influence of human intervention through water management is shown to be intrinsic to the definition of drought in the universal sense and can only be eliminated in the case of purely meteorological drought. The state of `drought' is shown to be predicated on the existence of climatological norms for a multitude of process specific terms. In general these norms are either difficult to obtain or even non-existent in the non-stationary context of climate change. Such climatological considerations, in conjunction with the difficulty of quantifying human influence, lead to the conclusion that we cannot reasonably expect the existence of any workable generalised objective definition of drought.

The impact of monsoon intraseasonal variability on renewable power generation in India

India is increasingly investing in renewable technology to meet rising energy demands, with hydropower and other renewables comprising one-third of current installed capacity. Installed wind-power is projected to increase 5-fold by 2035 (to nearly 100GW) under the International Energy Agency’s New Policies scenario. However, renewable electricity generation is dependent upon the prevailing meteorology, which is strongly influenced by monsoon variability. Prosperity and widespread electrification are increasing the demand for air conditioning, especially during the warm summer. This study uses multi-decadal observations and meteorological reanalysis data to assess the impact of intraseasonal monsoon variability on the balance of electricity supply from wind-power and temperature-related demand in India. Active monsoon phases are characterised by vigorous convection and heavy rainfall over central India. This results in lower temperatures giving lower cooling energy demand, while strong westerly winds yield high wind-power output. In contrast, monsoon breaks are characterised by suppressed precipitation, with higher temperatures and hence greater demand for cooling, and lower wind-power output across much of India. The opposing relationship between wind-power supply and cooling demand during active phases (low demand, high supply) and breaks (high demand, low supply) suggests that monsoon variability will tend to exacerbate fluctuations in the so-called demand-net-wind (i.e., electrical demand that must be supplied from non-wind sources). This study may have important implications for the design of power systems and for investment decisions in conventional schedulable generation facilities (such as coal and gas) that are used to maintain the supply/demand balance. In particular, if it is assumed (as is common) that the generated wind-power operates as a price-taker (i.e., wind farm operators always wish to sell their power, irrespective of price) then investors in conventional facilities will face additional weather-volatility through the monsoonal impact on the length and frequency of production periods (i.e. their load-duration curves).

Fatores críticos relativos à abertura do setor de transporte de petróleo e derivados

Em decorrência do atual processo de transformação da indústria do petróleo no Brasil, iniciado com base na Nova Lei do Petróleo - Lei n° 9.478, de 6 de agosto de 1997, assim como da respectiva abertura do mercado nacional, que poderá se consolidar a partir do ano 2001, são esperadas mudanças na estrutura da cadeia petrolífera brasileira. Tais modificações deverão ser causadas pelo aumento da concorrência, como conseqüência da entrada de novos agentes no setor, bem como entre o produto nacional e o importado, caracterizando um novo cenário de cunho competitivo no mercado de derivados de petróleo. Desta forma, a importação e exportação de petróleo e seus derivados por novos agentes, associado com a movimentação destes produtos e a utilização da infra-estrutura existente para transporte e armazenagem, são questões que merecem análises e considerações, sob a ótica da regulação. Dentro deste processo em curso, é fundamental a avaliação do grau da regulação, uma vez que os mercados legais, estruturados para a competição, atuam dentro de um contexto de regras preestabelecidas e que economias de mercado totalmente desregulamentadas podem acarretar sérias desigualdades para a sociedade. Esta dissertação tem por objetivo analisar quais são os principais fatores críticos, de cunho administrativo e econômico, que devem ser considerados na abertura do setor de transporte de petróleo e seus derivados a outros agentes, de modo a se obter uma efetiva transição para uma economia orientada pelo mercado, dentro do novo modelo de Estado Regulador. Trata-se de uma pesquisa explicativa, por explicitar tais fatores críticos, assim como exploratória, pois é realizada em área onde existe pouco conhecimento e experiência disponível no País, bem como bibliográfica e documental, uma vez que se apoia na consulta a leis, decretos, portarias, documentos de órgãos públicos, livros, artigos etc. O processo de investigação consiste no levantamento da evolução histórica do setor, até o momento atual, na pesquisa da legislação e regulamentação em vigor, dos princípios da teoria da regulação e da experiência internacional, na análise descritiva do setor de transportes nacional, limitando-se ao transporte marítimo e dutoviário de petróleo e derivados, efetuando uma análise crítica do setor frente à Lei 9.478/97 e a abertura do mercado. O estudo identifica os fatores críticos que permitem criar as condições para o estabelecimento de um mercado orientado pela competição, ou seja, a existência de elementos básicos como oferta, demanda, acessibilidade aos serviços pela sociedade, qualidade e segurança, informação sobre preço e utilização dos produtos ou serviços e adequada fiscalização pelo Estado. Tais fatores estão associados ao acesso a informações, ao controle de tarifas, ao estabelecimento de condições de entrada e saída do mercado, ao controle da qualidade dos serviços prestados e à criação de um ambiente de transição de um regime controlado para um regime de mercado competitivo.

Fuel ethanol price drivers in the Atlantic basin : Brazil & the U.S. traders perspectives

Como a oportunidade de exportação de etanol combustível é muito recente, o agronegócio carece de literatura para formação de gestores e estrategistas. Este trabalho tem como objetivo descrever o mecanismo de formação de preços de etanol tanto no Brasil como nos Estados Unidos da America. Decupei as variáveis que impactam na formação de preços, custo de produção de etanol de cana-de-açúcar, custo da logística e desidratação no Caribe, custo do etanol de milho e fiz algumas análises de cenários de formação de preços das principais variáveis e consegui organizar este conhecimento em um gráfico que contém no eixo superior preço do etanol hidratado na usina no Brasil e no eixo inferior o preço do bushel de milho em Chicago cujas interceções nas retas da taxa do dólar e do preço do gás natural, fornecem no eixo Y o preço do produto no porto de Nova York, ficando uma visualização simples das possibilidades da janela de exportação. A metodologia permite assumir diferentes cenários de oferta, demanda e preços e estabelecer diferentes estratégias de comercialização.

Youth and social cohesion in Ibero-America: a model in the making. Summary

Includes bibliography

An unproblematic method to solve economic and emission dispatch

This paper proposes a method to determine the output of all online units with minimum total cost when the amount of emission is reasonable. A joint economic and emission dispatch is proposed in order to get a significant compromise between costs and emission such that real power supply-demand equilibrium is satisfied. In order to have a meaningful compromise between costs and emission in the problem formulation, two variables are used, weighting factor and price penalty factor. A case study comprising of a 3-unit power system is employed, where various demand is used. Results for the test system indicate the fastness and effectiveness of proposed method. © 2011 IEEE.

Modelagem dinâmica temporal para a avaliação da disponibilidade hídrica e seus efeitos na sustentabilidade do sistema da sub-bacia do córrego do Boi Branco - SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Irrigação e Drenagem) - FCA

Estudo sobre o panorama da energia elétrica no Brasil e tendências futuras

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEB

Decomposition Methods and Network Design Problems

Decomposition based approaches are recalled from primal and dual point of view. The possibility of building partially disaggregated reduced master problems is investigated. This extends the idea of aggregated-versus-disaggregated formulation to a gradual choice of alternative level of aggregation. Partial aggregation is applied to the linear multicommodity minimum cost flow problem. The possibility of having only partially aggregated bundles opens a wide range of alternatives with different trade-offs between the number of iterations and the required computation for solving it. This trade-off is explored for several sets of instances and the results are compared with the ones obtained by directly solving the natural node-arc formulation. An iterative solution process to the route assignment problem is proposed, based on the well-known Frank Wolfe algorithm. In order to provide a first feasible solution to the Frank Wolfe algorithm, a linear multicommodity min-cost flow problem is solved to optimality by using the decomposition techniques mentioned above. Solutions of this problem are useful for network orientation and design, especially in relation with public transportation systems as the Personal Rapid Transit. A single-commodity robust network design problem is addressed. In this, an undirected graph with edge costs is given together with a discrete set of balance matrices, representing different supply/demand scenarios. The goal is to determine the minimum cost installation of capacities on the edges such that the flow exchange is feasible for every scenario. A set of new instances that are computationally hard for the natural flow formulation are solved by means of a new heuristic algorithm. Finally, an efficient decomposition-based heuristic approach for a large scale stochastic unit commitment problem is presented. The addressed real-world stochastic problem employs at its core a deterministic unit commitment planning model developed by the California Independent System Operator (ISO).

Game-theoretic view on intermediated exchange

Intermediaries permeate modern economic exchange. Most classical models on intermediated exchange are driven by information asymmetry and inventory management. These two factors are of reduced significance in modern economies. This makes it necessary to develop models that correspond more closely to modern financial marketplaces. The goal of this dissertation is to propose and examine such models in a game theoretical context. The proposed models are driven by asymmetries in the goals of different market participants. Hedging pressure as one of the most critical aspects in the behavior of commercial entities plays a crucial role. The first market model shows that no equilibrium solution can exist in a market consisting of a commercial buyer, a commercial seller and a non-commercial intermediary. This indicates a clear economic need for non-commercial trading intermediaries: a direct trade from seller to buyer does not result in an equilibrium solution. The second market model has two distinct intermediaries between buyer and seller: a spread trader/market maker and a risk-neutral intermediary. In this model a unique, natural equilibrium solution is identified in which the supply-demand surplus is traded by the risk-neutral intermediary, whilst the market maker trades the remainder from seller to buyer. Since the market maker’s payoff for trading at the identified equilibrium price is zero, this second model does not provide any motivation for the market maker to enter the market. The third market model introduces an explicit transaction fee that enables the market maker to secure a positive payoff. Under certain assumptions on this transaction fee the equilibrium solution of the previous model applies and now also provides a financial motivation for the market maker to enter the market. If the transaction fee violates an upper bound that depends on supply, demand and riskaversity of buyer and seller, the market will be in disequilibrium.

Microcirculatory parameters after isotonic and hypertonic colloidal fluid resuscitation in acute hemorrhagic shock

BACKGROUND: Volume resuscitation is one of the primary therapeutic goals in hemorrhagic shock, but data on microcirculatory effects of different colloidal fluid resuscitation regimen are sparse. We investigated sublingual mucosal microcirculatory parameters during hemorrhage and after fluid resuscitation with gelatin, hydroxyethyl starch, or hypertonic saline and hydroxyethyl starch in pigs. METHODS: To induce hemorrhagic shock, 60% of calculated blood volume was withdrawn. Microvascular blood flow was assessed by laser Doppler velocimetry. Microcirculatory hemoglobin oxygen saturation was measured with a tissue reflectance spectrophotometry, and side darkfield imaging was used to visualize the microcirculation and to quantify the flow quality. Systemic hemodynamic variables, systemic acid base and blood gas variables, and lactate measurements were recorded. Measurements were performed at baseline, after hemorrhage, and after fluid resuscitation with a fixed volume regimen. RESULTS: Systemic hemodynamic parameters returned or even exceeded to baseline values in all three groups after fluid resuscitation, but showed significantly higher filling pressures and cardiac output values in animals treated with isotonic colloids. Microcirculatory parameters determined in gelatin and hydroxyethyl starch resuscitated animals, and almost all parameters except microvascular hemoglobin oxygen saturation in animals treated with hypertonic saline and hydroxyethyl starch, were restored after treatment. DISCUSSION: Hemorrhaged pigs can be hemodynamically stabilized with either isotonic or hypertonic colloidal fluids. The main finding is an adequate restoration of sublingual microcirculatory blood flow and flow quality in all three study groups, but only gelatin and hydroxyethyl starch improved microvascular hemoglobin oxygen saturation, indicating some inadequate oxygen supply/demand ratio maybe due to a better restoration of systemic hemodynamics in isotonic colloidal resuscitated animals.

Viabilidad técnica para la explotación y separación isotópica de Li y prospectiva en el mercado de baterías de ION-7Li y de 6Li como material base de diseño en reactores de fusión nuclear

En claro alineamiento con estrategias de sostenibilidad en el uso de recursos naturales en un escenario constante de aumento de la demanda energética mundial, el desarrollo de la tecnología energética en la Historia de la Especie Humana muestra un vector de evolución permanente desde su origen en el sentido del desarrollo y uso de nuevas fuentes energéticas con la explotación de recursos naturales de manera más eficiente: soluciones energéticas con aumento de la densidad energética (exoenergía de proceso por unidad de masa de recurso natural). Así el cambio de escala en la demanda de explotación del Litio como recurso natural se viene presentando en la última década ligada al desarrollo del mercado de las baterías "ion-Litio" y los requisitos de combustible (Deuterio y Litio) en el camino de la fusión nuclear como opción energética próxima. El análisis anticipado de las demandas sinérgicas a escala de ambos mercados aparece de enorme interés prospectivo en sus aspectos técnicos: (1) tecnologías de base para la extracción mineral y de agua marina y (2) su enriquecimiento isotópico (de interés sinérgico; 7Li para baterías eficientes ion-litio; 6Li como regenerador de tritio en ciclo de combustible en fusión nuclear) a la vez que en sus aspectos económicos. Este Proyecto realiza: (1) un ejercicio de análisis prospectivo de la demanda y de mercado para el enriquecimiento 6Li/7Li para las próximas décadas, (2) se califican los desarrollos tecnológicos específicos que van a poder permitir la producción a escala conforme a la demanda; (3) se selecciona y califica una técnica [de centrifugación / termo-difusión/ destilación combinada] como opción tecnológicamente viable para la producción a escala de formas litiadas; (4) se propone un diseño conceptual de planta de producción y finalmente (5) propone un estudio de viabilidad para la demostración de proceso y construcción de dicha planta de demostración de la nueva capacidad tecnológica. ABSTRACT Clearly aligned with sustainability strategies under growing world energy demand in the use of natural resources the development of energy technology in the history of the human species shows a vector of ongoing evolution from its origin in the sense of the development and use of new energy sources with the exploitation of natural resources in a more efficient manner. The change of scale in the demand for exploitation of Lithium as a natural resource appears during the last decade as bound to the deployment of "lithium-ion" batteries market and to the Nuclear Fusion fuels (deuterium and lithium) supply scaled demands. The prospective analysis of demands to scale in both markets appears in scene with huge prospective interest in its technical aspects: (1) base technologies for mineral and water marine extraction (2) its isotopic enrichment (synergistic interests; 7Li efficient battery Li-ion; 6Li as fusion nuclear fuel breeder (tritium) as well as in its economic aspects. This Project: (1) propose a prospective analysis exercise of the synergistic supply demand for coming decades for the enrichment of 6Li and 7Li, (2) qualifies specific technological developments ongoing to respond to supply demand; (3) select and qualifies an appropriate technique [combined centrifugation/thermo-diffusion/distillation] as technologically viable option for lithiated forms scaled-production; (4) proposes a conceptual design of production plant based on the technique and finally (5) proposes a feasibility study for the process demonstration and construction of this new technological capability Demonstration Plant.

Methodology to assess EU Biofuel Policies: The CAPRI Approach

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS, Spain) in cooperation with EuroCARE (Bonn, Germany). The report provides a detailed description of the methodology developed to assess the implications of the European Renewable Energy Directive on the agricultural sector, with an explicit focus on regional effects of biofuel targets in the EU. For the analysis, the spatial agricultural sector model CAPRI has been extended to include a global representation of biofuel markets (with endogenous supply, demand and trade flows for biofuels and biofuel feedstocks) while keeping the focus on regional impacts in the EU. The model is capable to simulate the impacts of EU biofuel policies on food production and prices, the potential use of by-products in the feed chain, the increasing pressure on marginal and idle land and the share of imported biofuels (self-sufficiency indicators). CAPRI is now able to jointly assess biofuel and agricultural policies, including policy instruments defined at the Member State level. The CAPRI biofuel module allows for a detailed analysis of most relevant biofuel support instruments like consumer tax exemptions, quota obligations, import tariffs and other trade measures. Additionally, the model allows for analysing scenarios regarding technical progress in 2nd generation technologies for biofuels.

Additional traffic assignment options for the TASSIM model. Phase I. Final report.

Transportation Department, Washington, D.C.

The Department of Transportation long-range forecast model. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of Intermodal Transportation, Washington, D.C.