Electoral Uncertainty and the Deficit Bias in a New Keynesian Economy

Recent attempts to incorporate optimal fiscal policy into New Keynesian models subject to nominal inertia, have tended to assume that policy makers are benevolent and have access to a commitment technology. A separate literature, on the New Political Economy, has focused on real economies where there is strategic use of policy instruments in a world of political conflict. In this paper we combine these literatures and assume that policy is set in a New Keynesian economy by one of two policy makers facing electoral uncertainty (in terms of infrequent elections and an endogenous voting mechanism). The policy makers generally share the social welfare function, but differ in their preferences over fiscal expenditure (in its size and/or composition). Given the environment, policy shall be realistically constrained to be time-consistent. In a sticky-price economy, such heterogeneity gives rise to the possibility of one policy maker utilising (nominal) debt strategically to tie the hands of the other party, and influence the outcome of any future elections. This can give rise to a deficit bias, implying a sub-optimally high level of steady-state debt, and can also imply a sub-optimal response to shocks. The steady-state distortions and inflation bias this generates, combined with the volatility induced by the electoral cycle in a sticky-price environment, can significantly

The Inflation Bias under Calvo and Rotemberg Pricing.

New Keynesian models rely heavily on two workhorse models of nominal inertia - price contracts of random duration (Calvo, 1983) and price adjustment costs (Rotemberg, 1982) - to generate a meaningful role for monetary policy. These alternative descriptions of price stickiness are often used interchangeably since, to a first order of approximation they imply an isomorphic Phillips curve and, if the steady-state is efficient, identical objectives for the policy maker and as a result in an LQ framework, the same policy conclusions. In this paper we compute time-consistent optimal monetary policy in bench-mark New Keynesian models containing each form of price stickiness. Using global solution techniques we find that the inflation bias problem under Calvo contracts is significantly greater than under Rotemberg pricing, despite the fact that the former typically significant exhibits far greater welfare costs of inflation. The rates of inflation observed under this policy are non-trivial and suggest that the model can comfortably generate the rates of inflation at which the problematic issues highlighted in the trend inflation literature emerge, as well as the movements in trend inflation emphasized in empirical studies of the evolution of inflation. Finally, we consider the response to cost push shocks across both models and find these can also be significantly different. The choice of which form of nominal inertia to adopt is not innocuous.

Measuring intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain: a selection-bias-free approach

This paper analyses intergenerational earnings mobility in Spain correcting for different selection biases. We address the co-residence selection problem by combining information from two samples and using the two-sample two-stage least square estimator. We find a small decrease in elasticity when we move to younger cohorts. Furthermore, we find a higher correlation in the case of daughters than in the case of sons; however, when we consider the employment selection in the case of daughters, by adopting a Heckman-type correction method, the diference between sons and daughters disappears. By decomposing the sources of earnings elasticity across generations, we find that the correlation between child's and father's occupation is the most important component. Finally, quantile regressions estimates show that the influence of the father's earnings is greater when we move to the lower tail of the offspring's earnings distribution, especially in the case of daughters' earnings.

Education and the local equity bias around the world

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between different facets of education and diversification in international portfolios. We find that university education, mathematical numeracy, in addition to financial skill, play an important role in reducing home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies with more university graduates, or with higher level of mathematical numeracy, have lower level of local equity bias compared to more developed countries. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

Selection bias and unobservable heterogeneity applied at the wage equation of European married women

This paper utilizes a panel data sample selection model to correct the selection in the analysis of longitudinal labor market data for married women in European countries. We estimate the female wage equation in a framework of unbalanced panel data models with sample selection. The wage equations of females have several potential sources of.

Sex-dependent selection on an autosomal melanic female ornament promotes the evolution of sex ratio bias.

Sex-dependent selection often leads to spectacularly different phenotypes in males and females. In species in which sexual dimorphism is not complete, it is unclear which benefits females and males derive from displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex. In barn owls (Tyto alba), females exhibit on average larger black eumelanic spots than males but members of the two sexes display this trait in the same range of possible values. In a 12-year study, we show that selection exerted on spot size directly or on genetically correlated traits strongly favoured females with large spots and weakly favoured males with small spots. Intense directional selection on females caused an increase in spot diameter in the population over the study period. This increase is due to a change in the autosomal genes underlying the expression of eumelanic spots but not of sex-linked genes. Female-like males produced more daughters than sons, while male-like females produced more sons than daughters when mated to a small-spotted male. These sex ratio biases appear adaptive because sons of male-like females and daughters of female-like males had above-average survival. This demonstrates that selection exerted against individuals displaying a trait that is typical of the other sex promoted the evolution of specific life history strategies that enhance their fitness. This may explain why in many organisms sexual dimorphism is often not complete.

How to avoid gender bias in classroom interaction? A cooperative learning experience

This project aims to analyse the kind of questions the teacher asks students in order to encourage them to participate in her classes. Consequently, the researcher has read relevant literature and has analysed a short excerpt of a video recorded during her first practicum. She has also analysed a number of activities carried out during her second practicum in order to find out if she had improved her questioning skills in the classroom

Amplification efficiency: linking baseline and bias in the analysis of quantitative PCR data.

Despite the central role of quantitative PCR (qPCR) in the quantification of mRNA transcripts, most analyses of qPCR data are still delegated to the software that comes with the qPCR apparatus. This is especially true for the handling of the fluorescence baseline. This article shows that baseline estimation errors are directly reflected in the observed PCR efficiency values and are thus propagated exponentially in the estimated starting concentrations as well as 'fold-difference' results. Because of the unknown origin and kinetics of the baseline fluorescence, the fluorescence values monitored in the initial cycles of the PCR reaction cannot be used to estimate a useful baseline value. An algorithm that estimates the baseline by reconstructing the log-linear phase downward from the early plateau phase of the PCR reaction was developed and shown to lead to very reproducible PCR efficiency values. PCR efficiency values were determined per sample by fitting a regression line to a subset of data points in the log-linear phase. The variability, as well as the bias, in qPCR results was significantly reduced when the mean of these PCR efficiencies per amplicon was used in the calculation of an estimate of the starting concentration per sample.

MP2RAGE, a self bias-field corrected sequence for improved segmentation and T-1-mapping at high field

The large spatial inhomogeneity in transmit B, field (B-1(+)) observable in human MR images at hi h static magnetic fields (B-0) severely impairs image quality. To overcome this effect in brain T-1-weighted images the, MPRAGE sequence was modified to generate two different images at different inversion times MP2RAGE By combining the two images in a novel fashion, it was possible to create T-1-weigthed images where the result image was free of proton density contrast, T-2* contrast, reception bias field, and, to first order transmit field inhomogeneity. MP2RAGE sequence parameters were optimized using Bloch equations to maximize contrast-to-noise ratio per unit of time between brain tissues and minimize the effect of B-1(+) variations through space. Images of high anatomical quality and excellent brain tissue differentiation suitable for applications such as segmentation and voxel-based morphometry were obtained at 3 and 7 T. From such T-1-weighted images, acquired within 12 min, high-resolution 3D T-1 maps were routinely calculated at 7 T with sub-millimeter voxel resolution (0.65-0.85 mm isotropic). T-1 maps were validated in phantom experiments. In humans, the T, values obtained at 7 T were 1.15 +/- 0.06 s for white matter (WM) and 1.92 +/- 0.16 s for grey matter (GM), in good agreement with literature values obtained at lower spatial resolution. At 3 T, where whole-brain acquisitions with 1 mm isotropic voxels were acquired in 8 min the T-1 values obtained (0.81 +/- 0.03 S for WM and 1.35 +/- 0.05 for GM) were once again found to be in very good agreement with values in the literature. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Superiority of prone position in free-breathing 3D coronary MRA in patients with coronary disease.

Navigator-gated and corrected 3D coronary MR angiography (MRA) allows submillimeter image acquisition during free breathing. However, cranial diaphragmatic drift and relative phase shifts of chest-wall motion are limiting factors for image quality and scanning duration. We hypothesized that image acquisition in the prone position would minimize artifacts related to chest-wall motion and suppress diaphragmatic drift. Twelve patients with radiographically-confirmed coronary artery disease and six healthy adult volunteers were studied in both the prone and the supine position during free-breathing navigator-gated and corrected 3D coronary MRA. Image quality and the diaphragmatic positions were objectively compared. In the prone position, there was a 36% improvement in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR; 15.5 +/- 2.7 vs. 11.4 +/- 2.6; P < 0.01) and a 34% improvement in CNR (12.5 +/- 3.3 vs. 9.3 +/- 2.5, P < 0.01). The prone position also resulted in a 17% improvement in coronary vessel definition (P < 0.01). Cranial end-expiratory diaphragmatic drift occurred less frequently in the prone position (23% +/- 17% vs. 40% +/- 26% supine; P <0.05), and navigator efficiency was higher. Prone coronary MRA results in improved SNR and CNR with enhanced coronary vessel definition. Cranial end-expiratory diaphragmatic drift also was reduced, and navigator efficiency was enhanced. When feasible, prone imaging is recommended for free-breathing coronary MRA.

Deregulated MHC class II transactivator expression leads to a strong Th2 bias in CD4+ T lymphocytes.

The MHC class II (MHC-II) transactivator (CIITA) is the master transcriptional regulator of genes involved in MHC-II-restricted Ag presentation. Fine tuning of CIITA gene expression determines the cell type-specific expression of MHC-II genes. This regulation is achieved by the selective usage of multiple CIITA promoters. It has recently been suggested that CIITA also contributes to Th cell differentiation by suppressing IL-4 expression in Th1 cells. In this study, we show that endogenous CIITA is expressed at low levels in activated mouse T cells. Importantly CIITA is not regulated differentially in murine and human Th1 and Th2 cells. Ectopic expression of a CIITA transgene in multiple mouse cell types including T cells, does not interfere with normal development of CD4(+) T cells. However, upon TCR activation the CIITA transgenic CD4(+) T cells preferentially differentiate into IL-4-secreting Th2-type cells. These results imply that CIITA is not a direct Th1-specific repressor of the IL-4 gene and that tight control over the expression of CIITA and MHC-II is required to maintain the normal balance between Th1 and Th2 responses.

The relationship between forensic science and judicial error: a study covering error sources, bias, and remedies

Summary : Forensic science - both as a source of and as a remedy for error potentially leading to judicial error - has been studied empirically in this research. A comprehensive literature review, experimental tests on the influence of observational biases in fingermark comparison, and semistructured interviews with heads of forensic science laboratories/units in Switzerland and abroad were the tools used. For the literature review, some of the areas studied are: the quality of forensic science work in general, the complex interaction between science and law, and specific propositions as to error sources not directly related to the interaction between law and science. A list of potential error sources all the way from the crime scene to the writing of the report has been established as well. For the empirical tests, the ACE-V (Analysis, Comparison, Evaluation, and Verification) process of fingermark comparison was selected as an area of special interest for the study of observational biases, due to its heavy reliance on visual observation and recent cases of misidentifications. Results of the tests performed with forensic science students tend to show that decision-making stages are the most vulnerable to stimuli inducing observational biases. For the semi-structured interviews, eleven senior forensic scientists answered questions on several subjects, for example on potential and existing error sources in their work, of the limitations of what can be done with forensic science, and of the possibilities and tools to minimise errors. Training and education to augment the quality of forensic science have been discussed together with possible solutions to minimise the risk of errors in forensic science. In addition, the time that samples of physical evidence are kept has been determined as well. Results tend to show considerable agreement on most subjects among the international participants. Their opinions on possible explanations for the occurrence of such problems and the relative weight of such errors in the three stages of crime scene, laboratory, and report writing, disagree, however, with opinions widely represented in existing literature. Through the present research it was therefore possible to obtain a better view of the interaction of forensic science and judicial error to propose practical recommendations to minimise their occurrence. Résumé : Les sciences forensiques - considérés aussi bien comme source de que comme remède à l'erreur judiciaire - ont été étudiées empiriquement dans cette recherche. Une revue complète de littérature, des tests expérimentaux sur l'influence du biais de l'observation dans l'individualisation de traces digitales et des entretiens semi-directifs avec des responsables de laboratoires et unités de sciences forensiques en Suisse et à l'étranger étaient les outils utilisés. Pour la revue de littérature, quelques éléments étudies comprennent: la qualité du travail en sciences forensiques en général, l'interaction complexe entre la science et le droit, et des propositions spécifiques quant aux sources d'erreur pas directement liées à l'interaction entre droit et science. Une liste des sources potentielles d'erreur tout le long du processus de la scène de crime à la rédaction du rapport a également été établie. Pour les tests empiriques, le processus d'ACE-V (analyse, comparaison, évaluation et vérification) de l'individualisation de traces digitales a été choisi comme un sujet d'intérêt spécial pour l'étude des effets d'observation, due à son fort recours à l'observation visuelle et dû à des cas récents d'identification erronée. Les résultats des tests avec des étudiants tendent à prouver que les étapes de prise de décision sont les plus vulnérables aux stimuli induisant des biais d'observation. Pour les entretiens semi-structurés, onze forensiciens ont répondu à des questions sur des sujets variés, par exemple sur des sources potentielles et existantes d'erreur dans leur travail, des limitations de ce qui peut être fait en sciences forensiques, et des possibilités et des outils pour réduire au minimum ses erreurs. La formation et l'éducation pour augmenter la qualité des sciences forensiques ont été discutées ainsi que les solutions possibles pour réduire au minimum le risque d'erreurs en sciences forensiques. Le temps que des échantillons sont gardés a été également déterminé. En général, les résultats tendent à montrer un grand accord sur la plupart des sujets abordés pour les divers participants internationaux. Leur avis sur des explications possibles pour l'occurrence de tels problèmes et sur le poids relatif de telles erreurs dans les trois étapes scène de crime;', laboratoire et rédaction de rapports est cependant en désaccord avec les avis largement représentés dans la littérature existante. Par cette recherche il était donc possible d'obtenir une meilleure vue de l'interaction des sciences forensiques et de l'erreur judiciaire afin de proposer des recommandations pratiques pour réduire au minimum leur occurrence. Zusammenfassung : Forensische Wissenschaften - als Ursache und als Hilfsmittel gegen Fehler, die möglicherweise zu Justizirrtümern führen könnten - sind hier empirisch erforscht worden. Die eingestzten Methoden waren eine Literaturübersicht, experimentelle Tests über den Einfluss von Beobachtungseffekten (observer bias) in der Individualisierung von Fingerabdrücken und halbstandardisierte Interviews mit Verantwortlichen von kriminalistischen Labors/Diensten in der Schweiz und im Ausland. Der Literaturüberblick umfasst unter anderem: die Qualität der kriminalistischen Arbeit im Allgemeinen, die komplizierte Interaktion zwischen Wissenschaft und Recht und spezifische Fehlerquellen, welche nicht direkt auf der Interaktion von Recht und Wissenschaft beruhen. Eine Liste möglicher Fehlerquellen vom Tatort zum Rapportschreiben ist zudem erstellt worden. Für die empirischen Tests wurde der ACE-V (Analyse, Vergleich, Auswertung und Überprüfung) Prozess in der Fingerabdruck-Individualisierung als speziell interessantes Fachgebiet für die Studie von Beobachtungseffekten gewählt. Gründe sind die Wichtigkeit von visuellen Beobachtungen und kürzliche Fälle von Fehlidentifizierungen. Resultate der Tests, die mit Studenten durchgeführt wurden, neigen dazu Entscheidungsphasen als die anfälligsten für Stimuli aufzuzeigen, die Beobachtungseffekte anregen könnten. Für die halbstandardisierten Interviews beantworteten elf Forensiker Fragen über Themen wie zum Beispiel mögliche und vorhandene Fehlerquellen in ihrer Arbeit, Grenzen der forensischen Wissenschaften und Möglichkeiten und Mittel um Fehler zu verringern. Wie Training und Ausbildung die Qualität der forensischen Wissenschaften verbessern können ist zusammen mit möglichen Lösungen zur Fehlervermeidung im selben Bereich diskutiert worden. Wie lange Beweismitten aufbewahrt werden wurde auch festgehalten. Resultate neigen dazu, für die meisten Themen eine grosse Übereinstimmung zwischen den verschiedenen internationalen Teilnehmern zu zeigen. Ihre Meinungen über mögliche Erklärungen für das Auftreten solcher Probleme und des relativen Gewichts solcher Fehler in den drei Phasen Tatort, Labor und Rapportschreiben gehen jedoch mit den Meinungen, welche in der Literatur vertreten werden auseinander. Durch diese Forschungsarbeit war es folglich möglich, ein besseres Verständnis der Interaktion von forensischen Wissenschaften und Justizirrtümer zu erhalten, um somit praktische Empfehlungen vorzuschlagen, welche diese verringern. Resumen : Esta investigación ha analizado de manera empírica el rol de las ciencias forenses como fuente y como remedio de potenciales errores judiciales. La metodología empleada consistió en una revisión integral de la literatura, en una serie de experimentos sobre la influencia de los sesgos de observación en la individualización de huellas dactilares y en una serie de entrevistas semiestructuradas con jefes de laboratorios o unidades de ciencias forenses en Suiza y en el extranjero. En la revisión de la literatura, algunas de las áreas estudiadas fueron: la calidad del trabajo en ciencias forenses en general, la interacción compleja entre la ciencia y el derecho, así como otras fuentes de error no relacionadas directamente con la interacción entre derecho y ciencia. También se ha establecido una lista exhaustiva de las fuentes potenciales de error desde la llegada a la escena del crimen a la redacción del informe. En el marco de los tests empíricos, al analizar los sesgos de observación dedicamos especial interés al proceso de ACE-V (análisis, comparación, evaluación y verificación) para la individualización de huellas dactilares puesto que este reposa sobre la observación visual y ha originado varios casos recientes de identificaciones erróneas. Los resultados de las experimentaciones realizadas con estudiantes sugieren que las etapas en las que deben tornarse decisiones son las más vulnerables a lös factores que pueden generar sesgos de observación. En el contexto de las entrevistas semi-estructuradas, once científicos forenses de diversos países contestaron preguntas sobre varios temas, incluyendo las fuentes potenciales y existehtes de error en su trabajo, las limitaciones propias a las ciencias forenses, las posibilidades de reducir al mínimo los errores y las herramientas que podrían ser utilizadas para ello. Se han sugerido diversas soluciones para alcanzar este objetivo, incluyendo el entrenamiento y la educación para aumentar la calidad de las ciencias forenses. Además, se ha establecido el periodo de conservación de las muestras judiciales. Los resultados apuntan a un elevado grado de consenso entre los entrevistados en la mayoría de los temas. Sin embargo, sus opiniones sobre las posibles causas de estos errores y su importancia relativa en las tres etapas de la investigación -la escena del crimen, el laboratorio y la redacción de informe- discrepan con las que predominan ampliamente en la literatura actual. De este modo, esta investigación nos ha permitido obtener una mejor imagen de la interacción entre ciencias forenses y errores judiciales, y comenzar a formular una serie de recomendaciones prácticas para reducirlos al minimo.