Self-report depressive symptoms do not directly predict suicidality in nonclinical individuals: Contributions toward a more psychosocial approach to suicide risk

Although suicidality is associated with mental illness in general and depression in particular, many depressed individuals do not attempt suicide and some individuals who attempt to or do die by suicide do not present depressive symptoms. This article aims to contribute to a more psychosocial approach to understanding suicide risk in nonclinical populations. In advocating a psychosocial perspective rather than a depression-focused approach, this article presents four diverse studies that demonstrate sampling and measurement invariance in findings across different populations and specific measures. Study 1 tests the mediation effects of 2 interpersonal variables, thwarted belongingness and perceived burdensomeness, in the association between depressive symptoms and recent suicidality. Studies 2 and 3 evaluate the contribution of hopelessness and psychache, beyond depressive symptoms, to suicidality. Study 4 tests the contribution of life events behind depressive symptoms, and other relevant sociodemographic and clinical variables, to the estimation of “future suicidality.” Overall, results demonstrate that depressive symptoms do not directly predict suicidality in nonclinical individuals, but that other psychosocial variables mediate the association between depressive symptoms and suicidality or predict suicidality when statistically controlling for depressive symptoms. The article contributes to understanding some of the nonpsychopathological factors that potentially link depressive symptoms to suicide risk and that might themselves contribute to suicidality, even when controlling for depressive symptoms.

The moderating effect of gender on the relationship between coping and suicide risk in a Portuguese community sample of adults

Background and aims(s): The study evaluated the contribution of coping strategies, based on the Toulousiane conceptualization of coping, to the prediction of suicide risk and tested the moderating effect of gender, controlling for depressive symptoms. Method: A two-time data collection design was used. A community sample of 195 adults (91 men and 104 women) ranging in age from 19 to 65 years and living in several Portuguese regions, mostly in Alentejo, participated in this research. Results: Gender, depressive symptoms, control, and withdrawal and conversion significantly predicted suicide risk and gender interacted with control, withdrawal and conversion, and social distraction in the prediction of suicide risk. Coping predicted suicide risk only for women. Conclusions: Results have important implications for assessment and intervention with suicide at-risk individuals. In particular,the evaluation and development of coping skills is indicated as a goal for therapists having suicide at-risk women as clients.

Religion and the risk of suicide: longitudinal study of over 1 million people

Background: Durkheim’s seminal historical study demonstrated that religious affiliation reduces suicide risk, but it is unclear whether this protective effect persists in modern, more secular societies.

Aims: To examine suicide risk according to Christian religious affiliation and by inference to examine underlying mechanisms for suicide risk. If church attendance is important, risk should be lowest for Roman Catholics and highest for those with no religion; if religiosity is important, then ‘conservative’ Christians should fare best.

Method: A 9-year study followed 1 106 104 people aged 16–74 years at the 2001 UK census, using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for census-based cohort attributes.

Results: In fully adjusted models analysing 1119 cases of suicide, Roman Catholics, Protestants and those professing no religion recorded similar risks. The risk associated with conservative Christians was lower than that for Catholics (HR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.52–0.97).

Conclusions: The relationship between religious affiliation and suicide established by Durkheim may not pertain in societies where suicide rates are highest at younger ages. Risks are similar for those with and without a religious affiliation, and Catholics (who traditionally are characterised by higher levels of church attendance) do not demonstrate lower risk of suicide. However, religious affiliation is a poor measure of religiosity, except for a small group of conservative Christians, although their lower risk of suicide may be attributable to factors such as lower risk behaviour and alcohol consumption.

Spatial distribution of suicide in Queensland, Australia

Background: There has been a lack of investigation into the spatial distribution and clustering of suicide in Australia, where the population density is lower than many countries and varies dramatically among urban, rural and remote areas. This study aims to examine the spatial distribution of suicide at a Local Governmental Area (LGA) level and identify the LGAs with a high relative risk of suicide in Queensland, Australia, using geographical information system (GIS) techniques.---------- Methods: Data on suicide and demographic variables in each LGA between 1999 and 2003 were acquired from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. An age standardised mortality (ASM) rate for suicide was calculated at the LGA level. GIS techniques were used to examine the geographical difference of suicide across different areas.---------- Results: Far north and north-eastern Queensland (i.e., Cook and Mornington Shires) had the highest suicide incidence in both genders, while the south-western areas (i.e., Barcoo and Bauhinia Shires) had the lowest incidence in both genders. In different age groups (≤24 years, 25 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and ≥65 years), ASM rates of suicide varied with gender at the LGA level. Mornington and six other LGAs with low socioeconomic status in the upper Southeast had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk.---------- Conclusions: There was a notable difference in ASM rates of suicide at the LGA level in Queensland. Some LGAs had significant spatial clusters of high suicide risk. The determinants of the geographical difference of suicide should be addressed in future research.

Spatial clusters of suicide in Australia

Background: Understanding the spatial distribution of suicide can inform the planning, implementation and evaluation of suicide prevention activity. This study explored spatial clusters of suicide in Australia, and investigated likely socio-demographic determinants of these clusters. Methods: National suicide and population data at a statistical local area (SLA) level were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for the period of 1999 to 2003. Standardised mortality ratios (SMR) were calculated at the SLA level, and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were applied to investigate the geographical distribution of suicides and detect clusters of high risk in Australia. Results: Male suicide incidence was relatively high in the northeast of Australia, and parts of the east coast, central and southeast inland, compared with the national average. Among the total male population and males aged 15 to 34, Mornington Shire had the whole or a part of primary high risk cluster for suicide, followed by the Bathurst-Melville area, one of the secondary clusters in the north coastal area of the Northern Territory. Other secondary clusters changed with the selection of cluster radius and age group. For males aged 35 to 54 years, only one cluster in the east of the country was identified. There was only one significant female suicide cluster near Melbourne while other SLAs had very few female suicide cases and were not identified as clusters. Male suicide clusters had a higher proportion of Indigenous population and lower median socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) than the national average, but their shapes changed with selection of maximum cluster radii setting. Conclusion: This study found high suicide risk clusters at the SLA level in Australia, which appeared to be associated with lower median socio-economic status and higher proportion of Indigenous population. Future suicide prevention programs should focus on these high risk areas.

Limited utility of exercise stress testing in the evaluation of suspected acute coronary syndrome in patients aged less than 40 years with intermediate risk features

Objective National guidelines for management of intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome, in whom AMI has been excluded, advocate provocative testing to final risk stratify these patients into low risk (negative testing) or high risk (positive testing suggestive of unstable angina). Adults less than 40 years have a low pretest probability of acute coronary syndrome. The utility of exercise stress testing in young adults with chest pain suspected of acute coronary syndrome who have National Heart Foundation intermediate risk features was evaluated Methods A retrospective analysis of exercise stress testing performed on patients less than 40 years was evaluated. Patients were enrolled on a chest pain pathway and had negative serial ECGs and cardiac biomarkers before exercise stress testing to rule-out acute coronary syndrome. Chart review was completed on patients with positive stress tests. Results The 3987 patients with suspected intermediate risk acute coronary syndrome underwent exercise stress testing. One thousand and twenty-seven (25.8%) were aged less than 40 years (age 33.3 ± 4.8 years). Four of these 1027 patients had a positive exercise stress test (0.4% incidence of positive exercise stress testing). Of those, three patients had subsequent non-invasive functional testing that yielded a negative result. One patient declined further investigations. Assuming this was a true positive exercise stress test, the incidence of true positive exercise stress testing would have been 0.097% (95% confidence interval: 0.079–0.115%) (one of 1027 patients). Conclusions Routine exercise stress testing has limited value in the risk stratification of adults less than 40 years with suspected intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome

Not in all Walks of Life? : Social Differences in Suicide Mortality

In Finland, the suicide mortality trend has been decreasing during the last decade and a half, yet suicide was the fourth most common cause of death among both Finnish men and women aged 15 64 years in 2006. However, suicide does not occur equally among population sub-groups. Two notable social factors that position people at different risk of suicide are socioeconomic and employment status: those with low education, employed in manual occupations, having low income and those who are unemployed have been found to have an elevated suicide risk. The purpose of this study was to provide a systematic analysis of these social differences in suicide mortality in Finland. Besides studying socioeconomic trends and differences in suicide according to age and sex, different indicators for socioeconomic status were used simultaneously, taking account of their pathways and mutual associations while also paying attention to confounding and mediatory effects of living arrangements and employment status. Register data obtained from Statistics Finland were used in this study. In some analyses suicides were divided into two groups according to contributory causes of death: the first group consisted of suicide deaths that had alcohol intoxication as one of the contributory causes, and the other group is comprised of all other suicide deaths. Methods included Poisson and Cox regression models. Despite the decrease in suicide mortality trend, social differences still exist. Low occupation-based social class proved to be an important determinant of suicide risk among both men and women, but the strong independent effect of education on alcohol-associated suicide indicates that the roots of these differences are probably established in early adulthood when educational qualifications are obtained and health-behavioural patterns set. High relative suicide mortality among the unemployed during times of economic boom suggests that selective processes may be responsible for some of the employment status differences in suicide. However, long-term unemployment seems to have causal effects on suicide, which, especially among men, partly stem from low income. In conclusion, the results in this study suggest that education, occupation-based social class and employment status have causal effects on suicide risk, but to some extent selection into low education and unemployment are also involved in the explanations for excess suicide mortality among the socially deprived. It is also conceivable that alcohol use is to some extent behind social differences in suicide. In addition to those with low education, manual workers and the unemployed, young people, whose health-related behaviour is still to be adopted, would most probably benefit from suicide prevention programmes.

Cystatin C, a measure of renal function, as prognostic risk marker in acute heart failure : Studies on the cardiorenal syndrome

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with exceptionally high mortality. Still, characteristics and prognostic factors of contemporary AHF patients have been inadequately studied. Kidney function has emerged as a very powerful prognostic risk factor in cardiovascular disease. This is believed to be the consequence of an interaction between the heart and kidneys, also termed the cardiorenal syndrome, the mechanisms of which are not fully understood. Renal insufficiency is common in heart failure and of particular interest for predicting outcome in AHF. Cystatin C (CysC) is a marker of glomerular filtration rate with properties making it a prospective alternative to the currently used measure creatinine for assessment of renal function. The aim of this thesis is to characterize a representative cohort of patients hospitalized for AHF and to identify risk factors for poor outcome in AHF. In particular, the role of CysC as a marker of renal function is evaluated, including examination of the value of CysC as a predictor of mortality in AHF. The FINN-AKVA (Finnish Acute Heart Failure) study is a national prospective multicenter study conducted to investigate the clinical presentation, aetiology and treatment of, as well as concomitant diseases and outcome in, AHF. Patients hospitalized for AHF were enrolled in the FINN-AKVA study, and mortality was followed for 12 months. The mean age of patients with AHF is 75 years and they frequently have both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular co-morbidities. The mortality after hospitalization for AHF is high, rising to 27% by 12 months. The present study shows that renal dysfunction is very common in AHF. CysC detects impaired renal function in forty percent of patients. Renal function, measured by CysC, is one of the strongest predictors of mortality independently of other prognostic risk markers, such as age, gender, co-morbidities and systolic blood pressure on admission. Moreover, in patients with normal creatinine values, elevated CysC is associated with a marked increase in mortality. Acute kidney injury, defined as an increase in CysC within 48 hours of hospital admission, occurs in a significant proportion of patients and is associated with increased short- and mid-term mortality. The results suggest that CysC can be used for risk stratification in AHF. Markers of inflammation are elevated both in heart failure and in chronic kidney disease, and inflammation is one of the mechanisms thought to mediate heart-kidney interactions in the cardiorenal syndrome. Inflammatory cytokines such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α) correlate very differently to markers of cardiac stress and renal function. In particular, TNF-α showed a robust correlation to CysC, but was not associated with levels of NT-proBNP, a marker of hemodynamic cardiac stress. Compared to CysC, the inflammatory markers were not strongly related to mortality in AHF. In conclusion, patients with AHF are elderly with multiple co-morbidities, and renal dysfunction is very common. CysC demonstrates good diagnostic properties both in identifying impaired renal function and acute kidney injury in patients with AHF. CysC, as a measure of renal function, is also a powerful prognostic marker in AHF. CysC shows promise as a marker for assessment of kidney function and risk stratification in patients hospitalized for AHF.

Fourteen gene GBM prognostic signature identifies association of immune response pathway and mesenchymal subtype with high risk group

Background: Recent research on glioblastoma (GBM) has focused on deducing gene signatures predicting prognosis. The present study evaluated the mRNA expression of selected genes and correlated with outcome to arrive at a prognostic gene signature. Methods: Patients with GBM (n = 123) were prospectively recruited, treated with a uniform protocol and followed up. Expression of 175 genes in GBM tissue was determined using qRT-PCR. A supervised principal component analysis followed by derivation of gene signature was performed. Independent validation of the signature was done using TCGA data. Gene Ontology and KEGG pathway analysis was carried out among patients from TCGA cohort. Results: A 14 gene signature was identified that predicted outcome in GBM. A weighted gene (WG) score was found to be an independent predictor of survival in multivariate analysis in the present cohort (HR = 2.507; B = 0.919; p < 0.001) and in TCGA cohort. Risk stratification by standardized WG score classified patients into low and high risk predicting survival both in our cohort (p = <0.001) and TCGA cohort (p = 0.001). Pathway analysis using the most differentially regulated genes (n = 76) between the low and high risk groups revealed association of activated inflammatory/immune response pathways and mesenchymal subtype in the high risk group. Conclusion: We have identified a 14 gene expression signature that can predict survival in GBM patients. A network analysis revealed activation of inflammatory response pathway specifically in high risk group. These findings may have implications in understanding of gliomagenesis, development of targeted therapies and selection of high risk cancer patients for alternate adjuvant therapies.

Area factors and suicide: 5-year follow-up of the Northern Ireland population

Background: Suicide rates vary markedly between areas but it is unclear whether this is due to differences in population composition or to contextual factors operating at an area level.
Aims: To determine if area factors are independently related to suicide risk after adjustment for individual and family characteristics.
Method: A 5-year record linkage study was conducted of 1 116 748 non-institutionalised individuals aged 16-74 years, enumerated at the 2001 Northern Ireland census.
Results: The cohort experienced 566 suicides during follow-up. Suicide risks were lowest for women and for those who were married or cohabiting. Indicators of individual and household disadvantage and economic and health status at the time of the census were also strongly related to risk of suicide. The higher rates of suicide in the more deprived and socially fragmented areas disappeared after adjustment for individual and household factors. There was no significant relationship between population density and risk of suicide.
Conclusions: Differences in rates of suicide between areas are predominantly due to population characteristics rather than to area-level factors, which suggests that policies targeted at area-level factors are unlikely to significantly influence suicides rates.

Donor ABCB1 Variant Associates with Increased Risk for Kidney Allograft Failure

The impact of variation within genes responsible for the disposition and metabolism of calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs) on clinical outcomes in kidney transplantation is not well understood. Furthermore, the potential influence of donor, rather than recipient, genotypes on clinical endpoints is unknown. Here, we investigated the associations between donor and recipient gene variants with outcome among 4471 white, CNI-treated kidney transplant recipients. We tested for 52 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across five genes: CYP3A4, CYP3A5, ABCB1 (MDR1; encoding P-glycoprotein), NR1I2 (encoding the pregnane X receptor), and PPIA (encoding cyclophilin). In a discovery cohort of 811 patients from Birmingham, United Kingdom, kidney donor CC genotype at C3435T (rs1045642) within ABCB1, a variant known to alter protein expression, was associated with an increased risk for long-term graft failure compared with non-CC genotype (hazard ratio [HR], 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20-2.40; P=0.003). No other donor or recipient SNPs were associated with graft survival or mortality. We validated this association in 675 donors from Belfast, United Kingdom (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.21-2.32; P=0.002), and in 2985 donors from the Collaborative Transplant Study (HR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.08-3.13; P=0.006). In conclusion, these data suggest that an ABCB1 variant known to alter protein expression represents an attractive candidate for future study and risk stratification in kidney transplantation.

Collectives of diagnostic biomarkers identify high-risk subpopulations of hematuria patients: exploiting heterogeneity in large-scale biomarker data

Background: Ineffective risk stratification can delay diagnosis of serious disease in patients with hematuria. We applied a systems biology approach to analyze clinical, demographic and biomarker measurements (n = 29) collected from 157 hematuric patients: 80 urothelial cancer (UC) and 77 controls with confounding pathologies.

Methods: On the basis of biomarkers, we conducted agglomerative hierarchical clustering to identify patient and biomarker clusters. We then explored the relationship between the patient clusters and clinical characteristics using Chi-square analyses. We determined classification errors and areas under the receiver operating curve of Random Forest Classifiers (RFC) for patient subpopulations using the biomarker clusters to reduce the dimensionality of the data.

Results: Agglomerative clustering identified five patient clusters and seven biomarker clusters. Final diagnoses categories were non-randomly distributed across the five patient clusters. In addition, two of the patient clusters were enriched with patients with ‘low cancer-risk’ characteristics. The biomarkers which contributed to the diagnostic classifiers for these two patient clusters were similar. In contrast, three of the patient clusters were significantly enriched with patients harboring ‘high cancer-risk” characteristics including proteinuria, aggressive pathological stage and grade, and malignant cytology. Patients in these three clusters included controls, that is, patients with other serious disease and patients with cancers other than UC. Biomarkers which contributed to the diagnostic classifiers for the largest ‘high cancer- risk’ cluster were different than those contributing to the classifiers for the ‘low cancer-risk’ clusters. Biomarkers which contributed to subpopulations that were split according to smoking status, gender and medication were different.

Conclusions: The systems biology approach applied in this study allowed the hematuric patients to cluster naturally on the basis of the heterogeneity within their biomarker data, into five distinct risk subpopulations. Our findings highlight an approach with the promise to unlock the potential of biomarkers. This will be especially valuable in the field of diagnostic bladder cancer where biomarkers are urgently required. Clinicians could interpret risk classification scores in the context of clinical parameters at the time of triage. This could reduce cystoscopies and enable priority diagnosis of aggressive diseases, leading to improved patient outcomes at reduced costs. © 2013 Emmert-Streib et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Symptoms and Endoscopic Features at Barrett's Esophagus Diagnosis: Implications for Neoplastic Progression Risk

OBJECTIVES: Risk stratification of Barrett's esophagus (BE) patients based on clinical and endoscopic features may help to optimize surveillance practice for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) development. The aim of this study was to investigate patient symptoms and endoscopic features at index endoscopy and risk of neoplastic progression in a large population-based cohort of BE patients.

METHODS: A retrospective review of hospital records relating to incident BE diagnosis was conducted in a subset of patients with specialized intestinal metaplasia from the Northern Ireland BE register. Patients were matched to the Northern Ireland Cancer Registry to identify progressors to EAC or esophageal high-grade dysplasia (HGD). Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the association between endoscopic features, symptoms, and neoplastic progression risk.

RESULTS: During 27,997 person-years of follow-up, 128 of 3,148 BE patients progressed to develop HGD/EAC. Ulceration within the Barrett's segment, but not elsewhere in the esophagus, was associated with an increased risk of progression (hazard ratio (HR) 1.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08–2.76). Long-segment BE carried a significant sevenfold increased risk of progression compared with short-segment BE; none of the latter group developed EAC during the study period. Conversely, the absence of reflux symptoms was associated with an increased risk of cancer progression (HR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.05–2.46).

CONCLUSIONS: BE patients presenting with a long-segment BE or Barrett's ulcer have an increased risk of progressing to HGD/EAC and should be considered for more intense surveillance. The absence of reflux symptoms at BE diagnosis is not associated with a reduced risk of malignant progression, and may carry an increased risk of progression.

Prediction of breast cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants

BACKGROUND: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. METHODS: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. RESULTS: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. CONCLUSIONS: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.

Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.