Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Human Trafficking Victims and Their Children: Assessing Needs, Vulnerabilities, Strengths, and Survivorship

Given the increased awareness and attention to human trafficking, including the establishment of federal laws and policies, federally funded task forces that provide law enforcement responses, and specialized victim services, it is important to assess the impact of these procedures and services on survivors/victims of international human trafficking and their immigrant children. By federal definition, certified victims of international human trafficking are eligible for all services provided to refugees in this country, including reunification with their minor children. This research is based on a qualitative study conducted in Austin and Houston, Texas with human trafficking victims/survivors. The project’s goal was to gain an understanding of the needs of human trafficking survivors after their rescue, their overall integration into American life, and the subsequent needs of their immigrant children after reunification. The project objectives examined the factors that either promote or hinder self-sufficiency, the determination of social service needs, and policy and practice recommendations to strengthen survivors, their children and their families living both locally and abroad. For this project, nine (n = 9) in-depth interviews were conducted with adult foreign-born victims of human trafficking. Researchers gathered data using a semi-structured questionnaire that queried about factors that promote or hinder victims’ services and needs. Interviews were conducted in participants’ homes using bilingual research staff and/or trained interpreters, were digitally-recorded, and subsequently transcribed. Participation in this study was completely voluntary. Specific steps were taken to ensure that the participants’ identities were protected. Open coding of data was utilized and the data were subsequently organized or grouped into properties and later developed into contextual themes around the research questions. The findings are grounded with the use of direct quotes from participants. As a result of progressive U.S. policy, many victims of human trafficking are being reunited with their minor children. Immigrant children are one of the largest and fastest growing populations in the U.S. and for a variety of reasons are vulnerable to exploitation. Research also indicates that victims of trafficking are identified by traffickers because of their perceived “vulnerabilities” or lack of opportunities (Clark, 2003). Therefore, it is important that practices and policies are developed to address the unique needs of these families with an eye toward positive outcomes for parent and child safety and well-being. Social service providers are provided a toolkit that may be utilized before and during the reunification period.

Building lean thinking in a telecom software development organization: strengths and challenges.

The potential shown by Lean in different domains has aroused interest in the software industry. However, it remains unclear how Lean can be effectively applied in a domain such as software development that is fundamentally different from manufacturing. This study explores how Lean principles are implemented in software development companies and the challenges that arise when applying Lean Software Development. For that, a case study was conducted at Ericsson R&D Finland, which successfully adopted Scrum in 2009 and subsequently started a comprehensible transition to Lean in 2010. Focus groups were conducted with company representatives to help devise a questionnaire supporting the creation of a Lean mindset in the company (Team Amplifier). Afterwards, the questionnaire was used in 16 teams based in Finland, Hungary and China to evaluate the status of the transformation. By using Lean thinking, Ericsson R&D Finland has made important improvements to the quality of its products, customer satisfaction and transparency within the organization. Moreover, build times have been reduced over ten times and the number of commits per day has increased roughly five times.The study makes two main contributions to research. First, the main factors that have enabled Ericsson R&D?s achievements are analysed. Elements such as ?network of product owners?, ?continuous integration?, ?work in progress limits? and ?communities of practice? have been identified as being of fundamental importance. Second, three categories of challenges in using Lean Software Development were identified: ?achieving flow?, ?transparency? and ?creating a learning culture?

Ceremony analysis : strengths and weaknesses

We investigate known security flaws in the context of security ceremonies to gain an understanding of the ceremony analysis process. The term security ceremonies is used to describe a system of protocols and humans which interact for a specific purpose. Security ceremonies and ceremony analysis is an area of research in its infancy, and we explore the basic principles involved to better understand the issues involved.We analyse three ceremonies, HTTPS, EMV and Opera Mini, and use the information gained from the experience to establish a list of typical flaws in ceremonies. Finally, we use that list to analyse a protocol proven secure for human use. This leads to a realisation of the strengths and weaknesses of ceremony analysis.

Concurrent and longitudinal links between children’s and their friends’ antisocial and prosocial behavior in preschool

Concurrent and longitudinal links between children’s own and their nominated best friends’ antisocial and prosocial behavior were studied in a normative sample of 3–5-year-olds (N = 203). Moderating effects of age and gender were also explored. Subscales of the Strength and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) were used to obtain teacher ratings of behavior for each target child and his/her nominated best friends. Nomination of best friends with higher levels of antisocial behavior and lower levels of prosocial behavior was concurrently linked to more antisocial behavior in boys. Nomination of highly prosocial best friends was concurrently linked to more prosocial behavior in both boys and girls. However, the study found no longitudinal effects of best friends’ behavior on target child’s behavior over a one-year period. A group of children who nominated no best friends at T1 were generally perceived as less prosocial, but not more antisocial, than other children. © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The feeding practices and structure questionnaire : construction and initial validation in a sample of Australian first-time mothers and their 2-year olds

Background Early feeding practices lay the foundation for children’s eating habits and weight gain. Questionnaires are available to assess parental feeding but overlapping and inconsistent items, subscales and terminology limit conceptual clarity and between study comparisons. Our aim was to consolidate a range of existing items into a parsimonious and conceptually robust questionnaire for assessing feeding practices with very young children (<3 years). Methods Data were from 462 mothers and children (age 21–27 months) from the NOURISH trial. Items from five questionnaires and two study-specific items were submitted to a priori item selection, allocation and verification, before theoretically-derived factors were tested using Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Construct validity of the new factors was examined by correlating these with child eating behaviours and weight. Results Following expert review 10 factors were specified. Of these, 9 factors (40 items) showed acceptable model fit and internal reliability (Cronbach’s α: 0.61-0.89). Four factors reflected non-responsive feeding practices: ‘Distrust in Appetite’, ‘Reward for Behaviour’, ‘Reward for Eating’, and ‘Persuasive Feeding’. Five factors reflected structure of the meal environment and limits: ‘Structured Meal Setting’, ‘Structured Meal Timing’, ‘Family Meal Setting’, ‘Overt Restriction’ and ‘Covert Restriction’. Feeding practices generally showed the expected pattern of associations with child eating behaviours but none with weight. Conclusion The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) provides a new reliable and valid measure of parental feeding practices, specifically maternal responsiveness to children’s hunger/satiety signals facilitated by routine and structure in feeding. Further validation in more diverse samples is required.

Strengths and weaknesses analysis of alcohol treatment programs. Report to Austroads (SS1755)

Austroads called for responses to a tender to investigate options for rehabilitation in alcohol interlock programs. Following successful application by the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety – Queensland (CARRS‐Q), a program of work was developed. The project has four objectives: 1. Develop a matrix outlining existing policies in national and international jurisdictions with respect to treatment and rehabilitation programs and criteria for eligibility for interlock removal; 2. Critically review the available literature with a focus on evaluation outcomes regarding the effectiveness of treatment and rehabilitation programs; 3. Analyse and assess the strengths and weaknesses of the programs/approaches identified; and, 4. Outline options with an evidence base for consideration by licensing authorities...

Extending the validity of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire

Background Feeding practices are commonly examined as potentially modifiable determinants of children’s eating behaviours and weight status. Although a variety of questionnaires exist to assess different feeding aspects, many lack thorough reliability and validity testing. The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) is a tool designed to measure early feeding practices related to non-responsive feeding and structure of the meal environment. Face validity, factorial validity, internal reliability and cross-sectional correlations with children’s eating behaviours have been established in mothers with 2-year-old children. The aim of the present study was to further extend the validity of the FPSQ by examining factorial, construct and predictive validity, and stability. Methods Participants were from the NOURISH randomised controlled trial which evaluated an intervention with first-time mothers designed to promote protective feeding practices. Maternal feeding practices (FP) and child eating behaviours were assessed when children were aged 2 years and 3.7 years (n=388). Confirmatory Factor analysis, group differences, predictive relationships, and stability were tested. Results The original 9-factor structure was confirmed when children were aged 3.7±0.3 years. Cronbach’s alpha was above the recommended 0.70 cut-off for all factors except Structured Meal Timing, Over Restriction and Distrust in Appetite which were 0.58, 0.67 and 0.66 respectively. Allocated group differences reflected behaviour consistent with intervention content and all feeding practices were stable across both time points (range of r= 0.45-0.70). There was some evidence for the predictive validity of factors with 2 FP showing expected relationships, 2 FP showing expected and unexpected relationships and 5 FP showing no relationship. Conclusions Reliability and validity was demonstrated for most subscales of the FPSQ. Future validation is warranted with culturally diverse samples and with fathers and other caregivers. The use of additional outcomes to further explore predictive validity is recommended as well as testing construct validity and test-retest reliability of the questionnaire.

Positive psychological strengths and school engagement in primary school children

A sizeable body of research has investigated the impact of specific character strengths or traits on significant outcomes. Some recent research is beginning to consider the effects of groups of strengths, combined as a higher order variable, and termed covitality. This study investigated the combined influence of four positive character traits: gratitude, optimism, zest and persistence, upon school engagement, within a sample of 112 Australian primary school students. The combined effect of these four traits, in defining covitality as a higher or second order factor within a path analysis, was found to predict relatively higher levels of school engagement and pro-social behaviour.

The Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ-28): A parsimonious version validated for longitudinal use from 2-5 years

Prospective studies and intervention evaluations that examine change over time assume that measurement tools measure the same construct at each occasion. In the area of parent-child feeding practices, longitudinal measurement properties of the questionnaires used are rarely verified. To ascertain that measured change in feeding practices reflects true change rather than change in the assessment, structure, or conceptualisation of the constructs over time, this study examined longitudinal measurement invariance of the Feeding Practices and Structure Questionnaire (FPSQ) subscales (9 constructs; 40 items) across 3 time points. Mothers participating in the NOURISH trial reported their feeding practices when children were aged 2, 3.7, and 5 years (N = 404). Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) within a structural equation modelling framework was used. Comparisons of initial cross-sectional models followed by longitudinal modelling of subscales, resulted in the removal of 12 items, including two redundant or poorly performing subscales. The resulting 28-item FPSQ-28 comprised 7 multi-item subscales: Reward for Behaviour, Reward for Eating, Persuasive Feeding, Overt Restriction, Covert Restriction, Structured Meal Setting and Structured Meal Timing. All subscales showed good fit over 3 time points and each displayed at least partial scalar (thresholds equal) longitudinal measurement invariance. We recommend the use of a separate single item indicator to assess the family meal setting. This is the first study to examine longitudinal measurement invariance in a feeding practices questionnaire. Invariance was established, indicating that the subscales of the shortened FPSQ-28 can be used with mothers to validly assess change in 7 feeding constructs in samples of children aged 2-5 years of age.

World meeting on stock assessment of bluefin tunas: strengths and weaknesses

The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) hosted a meeting, sponsored jointly by the IATTC and the Australian Fisheries Service, to discuss and report on the strengths and weaknesses of stock assessment techniques used on bluefin tuna stocks in the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans and the Mediterranean Sea. The meeting was held in La Jolla, California, on Mat 25-31, 1990.

Challenges and difficulties in assessing the Environmental Status under the requirements of the Ecosystem Approach in North-African countries, illustrated by eutrophication assessment

Marine ecosystems provide many ecosystem goods and services. However, these ecosystems and the benefits they create for humans are subject to competing uses and increasing pressures. As a consequence of the increasing threats to the marine environment, several regulations require applying an ecosystem-based approach for managing the marine environment. Within the Mediterranean Sea, in 2008, the Contracting Parties of the Mediterranean Action Plan decided to progressively apply the Ecosystem Approach (EcAp) with the objective of achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) for 2018. To assess the Environmental Status, the EcAp proposes 11 Ecological Objectives, each of which requires a set of relevant indicators to be integrated. Progress towards the EcAp entails a gradual and important challenge for North-African countries, and efforts have to be initiated to propose and discuss methods. Accordingly, to enhance the capacity of North-African countries to implement EcAp and particularly to propose and discuss indicators and methods to assess GES, the aim of this manuscript is to identify the practical problems and gaps found at each stage of the Environmental Status assessment process. For this purpose, a stepwise method has been proposed to assess the Environmental Status using Ecologic Objective 5-Eutrophication as example.

Challenges and difficulties in assessing the Environmental Status under the requirements of the Ecosystem Approach in North-African countries, illustrated by eutrophication assessment

Marine ecosystems provide many ecosystem goods and services. However, these ecosystems and the benefits they create for humans are subject to competing uses and increasing pressures. As a consequence of the increasing threats to the marine environment, several regulations require applying an ecosystem-based approach for managing the marine environment. Within the Mediterranean Sea, in 2008, the Contracting Parties of the Mediterranean Action Plan decided to progressively apply the Ecosystem Approach (EcAp) with the objective of achieving Good Environmental Status (GES) for 2018. To assess the Environmental Status, the EcAp proposes 11 Ecological Objectives, each of which requires a set of relevant indicators to be integrated. Progress towards the EcAp entails a gradual and important challenge for North-African countries, and efforts have to be initiated to propose and discuss methods. Accordingly, to enhance the capacity of North-African countries to implement EcAp and particularly to propose and discuss indicators and methods to assess GES, the aim of this manuscript is to identify the practical problems and gaps found at each stage of the Environmental Status assessment process. For this purpose, a stepwise method has been proposed to assess the Environmental Status using Ecologic Objective 5-Eutrophication as example.