823 resultados para Strategic decision model
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The notion that each state in the international system approaches matters of war and peace somewhat differently because they each possess a unique strategic culture is not a new or obscure one – but it nevertheless remains controversial. While some scholars dismiss the utility or practicality of examining states’ cultures when seeking to explain or predict those states’ patterns of strategic decision-making, even amongst those who accept that we should pay attention to cultural differences between states when carrying out strategic analysis there remains a frustratingly eclectic range of offerings from scholars regarding how best to do so. In short, significant uncertainty remains regarding both whether strategic culture should be used as an analytical tool and, if it is so utilized, how one should go about doing so. This thesis therefore explores the concept of strategic culture in great detail, both theoretical and empirical. The opening three chapters examine why the more traditional rationalist/materialistic theories should not exclusively dominate strategic analysis, then the various existing strategic cultural offerings are considered and critiqued and, finally, a new conceptual model for strategic cultural analysis is proposed which draws from the hitherto largely neglected psychological and sociological literature. Both of these fields, it is submitted in Chapter 3, have spent more time and effort developing ways of understanding and analyzing culture than the field of IR has to date, and therefore the models and methods debated and developed in these fields should, it is argued, be ‘imported’ into IR to drive further strategic cultural research. The thesis then moves in the following six chapters to consider Australia’s strategic culture. The purpose of this part of the thesis is two-fold: first, it illustrates how the model offered in Chapter 3 works and, by implication, suggests how scholars may go about applying it to other cases. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the latter six chapters explore the twists and turns of Australia’s substantive strategic decision-making over the course of the last century or more, thereby explaining how Australia’s strategic history can be understood from a cultural perspective.
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This work aims to understand the interaction between competition and network formation in the banking market. Combining Matutes and Padilla (1994) and Matutes and Vives (2000), we build a model of imperfect bank competition for deposits in which an interbank relationship network is a key strategic decision: it affects banks’ profit and risk position. The competition level exerts influence in the banking network structure since it affects the network outcomes. As result, we have that different competition levels imply different network topologies. Specifically, greater competition imply denser networks. Finally, when we allow for the possibility of collusion, the denser network can come out in the least competitive environment.
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As levels of investment in advanced manufacturing systems increase, effective project management becomes ever more critical. This paper demonstrates how the model proposed by Mintzberg, Raisinghani and Theoret in 1976, which structures complicated strategic decision processes, can be applied to the design of new production systems for both descriptive and analytical research purposes. This paper sets a detailed case study concerning the design and development of an advanced manufacturing system within the Mintzberg decision model and so breaks down the decision sequence into constituent parts. It thus shows how a structured model can provide a framework for the researcher who wishes to study decision episodes in the design of manufacturing facilities in greater depth.
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In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.
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Introduction: Some types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters (A-CVC) have been shown to be cost-effective in preventing catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). However, not all types have been evaluated, and there are concerns over the quality and usefulness of these earlier studies. There is uncertainty amongst clinicians over which, if any, antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters to use. We re-evaluated the cost-effectiveness of all commercially available antimicrobialcoated central venous catheters for prevention of catheter-related bloodstream infection in adult intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Methods: We used a Markov decision model to compare the cost-effectiveness of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters relative to uncoated catheters. Four catheter types were evaluated; minocycline and rifampicin (MR)-coated catheters; silver, platinum and carbon (SPC)-impregnated catheters; and two chlorhexidine and silver sulfadiazine-coated catheters, one coated on the external surface (CH/SSD (ext)) and the other coated on both surfaces (CH/SSD (int/ext)). The incremental cost per qualityadjusted life-year gained and the expected net monetary benefits were estimated for each. Uncertainty arising from data estimates, data quality and heterogeneity was explored in sensitivity analyses. Results: The baseline analysis, with no consideration of uncertainty, indicated all four types of antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters were cost-saving relative to uncoated catheters. Minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters prevented 15 infections per 1,000 catheters and generated the greatest health benefits, 1.6 quality-adjusted life-years, and cost-savings, AUD $130,289. After considering uncertainty in the current evidence, the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters returned the highest incremental monetary net benefits of $948 per catheter; but there was a 62% probability of error in this conclusion. Although the minocycline and rifampicin-coated catheters had the highest monetary net benefits across multiple scenarios, the decision was always associated with high uncertainty. Conclusions: Current evidence suggests that the cost-effectiveness of using antimicrobial-coated central venous catheters within the ICU is highly uncertain. Policies to prevent catheter-related bloodstream infection amongst ICU patients should consider the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions in the light of this uncertainty. Decision makers would do well to consider the current gaps in knowledge and the complexity of producing good quality evidence in this area.
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Reliable infrastructure assets impact significantly on quality of life and provide a stable foundation for economic growth and competitiveness. Decisions about the way assets are managed are of utmost importance in achieving this. Timely renewal of infrastructure assets supports reliability and maximum utilisation of infrastructure and enables business and community to grow and prosper. This research initially examined a framework for asset management decisions and then focused on asset renewal optimisation and renewal engineering optimisation in depth. This study had four primary objectives. The first was to develop a new Asset Management Decision Framework (AMDF) for identifying and classifying asset management decisions. The AMDF was developed by applying multi-criteria decision theory, classical management theory and life cycle management. The AMDF is an original and innovative contribution to asset management in that: · it is the first framework to provide guidance for developing asset management decision criteria based on fundamental business objectives; · it is the first framework to provide a decision context identification and analysis process for asset management decisions; and · it is the only comprehensive listing of asset management decision types developed from first principles. The second objective of this research was to develop a novel multi-attribute Asset Renewal Decision Model (ARDM) that takes account of financial, customer service, health and safety, environmental and socio-economic objectives. The unique feature of this ARDM is that it is the only model to optimise timing of asset renewal with respect to fundamental business objectives. The third objective of this research was to develop a novel Renewal Engineering Decision Model (REDM) that uses multiple criteria to determine the optimal timing for renewal engineering. The unique features of this model are that: · it is a novel extension to existing real options valuation models in that it uses overall utility rather than present value of cash flows to model engineering value; and · it is the only REDM that optimises timing of renewal engineering with respect to fundamental business objectives; The final objective was to develop and validate an Asset Renewal Engineering Philosophy (AREP) consisting of three principles of asset renewal engineering. The principles were validated using a novel application of real options theory. The AREP is the only renewal engineering philosophy in existence. The original contributions of this research are expected to enrich the body of knowledge in asset management through effectively addressing the need for an asset management decision framework, asset renewal and renewal engineering optimisation based on fundamental business objectives and a novel renewal engineering philosophy.
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Purpose: This paper provides a selective annotated bibliography that summarises journal articles which have employed either the theory of reasoned action or the theory of planned behaviour to circumstances which are relevant to business activities. Design/methodology/approach: Searches were conducted on the EBSCO Host and ProQuest databases to identify papers that had used either the theory of reasoned action or theory of planned behaviour in their methodology. The bibliography was separated into three categories- financial decision making, strategic decision making, and professional decision making. Implications: The information presented in this paper is intended to assist and facilitate further research by broadening the awareness of the literature and providing examples of the application of the theory as it has been employed in prior research.
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While the role of executives’ cognition in organisations’ responses to change is a central topic in strategic cognition research, changes in firms’ environment are typically not measured directly but described either as an event (for example, new industry legislation) or represented by a time period (e.g. when a new technology impacted an industry). The Australian mining sector has witnessed a historically significant change in demand for its products and we begin by developing measures of changes in supply and demand for key commodities during the period 1992-2008. We identify sub-groups of firms based on their activities and commodity sector and examine the relation of these variables to executives’ cognition and to firms’ CapEx. We find industry, firm and cognitive variables are related to both strategic cognition and firms’ CapEx.
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In an age where the role of police has morphed from simplistic response and enforcement activities to one of managing human security risk, it is argued that intelligence can be used to reduce the impact of strategic surprise from evolving criminal threats and environmental change. This review specifically focusses on research that has implications for strategic intelligence in law enforcement. The review findings highlight the absence of detailed research of law enforcement strategic intelligence. Findings suggest that current law enforcement intelligence literature focuses narrowly on the management concept of intelligence-led policing in a tactical, operational setting. As a result there is little theory on how to improve strategic intelligence outcomes. This is despite the fact that intelligence –led policing is envisaged as a management tool to guide strategic decision making. the review identifies central issues surrounding strategic intelligence and highlights key questions that future research agendas must address to improve strategic intelligence outcomes
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Nowadays, most of the infrastructure development projects undertaken are complex in nature. Practically, public clients who do not have a good understanding of the design and management may suffer severe losses, especially for infrastructure projects. There is a need for luring the right consultant to secure client's investment in infrastructure developments. Throughout the project life cycle, consultants play vital role from the inception to completion stage of a project. A few studies in Malaysia show that infrastructure projects involving irrigation and drainage have experience problems such as poor workmanship, delay and cost overrun due to the consultant's inability or the client incompetence of recruiting consultants in time. This highlights the need of aided decision making and an efficient system to select the best consultant by using Decision Support System (DSS). On the other hand, recent trends reveal that most DSS in construction only concentrate on decision model development. These models are impractical and unused as they are complicated or difficult for laymen such as project managers to utilize. Thus, this research attempts to develop an efficient DSS for consultant selection namely consultDeSS. Driven by the motivation and research aims, this study deployed Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) dominant with a combination of case studies at the Malaysian Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID). Two real projects involving irrigation and drainage infrastructure were used to design, implement and evaluate the artefact. The 3-tier consultDeSS was revised after the evaluation and the design was significantly improved based on user feedback. By developing desirable tools that fit client's needs will enhance the productivity and minimize conflict within groups and organisations. The tool is more usable and efficient compared to previous studies in construction. Thus, this research has demonstrated a purposeful artefact with a practical and valid structured development approach that is applicable in a variety of problems in construction discipline.
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The factors affecting the non-industrial, private forest landowners' (hereafter referred to using the acronym NIPF) strategic decisions in management planning are studied. A genetic algorithm is used to induce a set of rules predicting potential cut of the landowners' choices of preferred timber management strategies. The rules are based on variables describing the characteristics of the landowners and their forest holdings. The predictive ability of a genetic algorithm is compared to linear regression analysis using identical data sets. The data are cross-validated seven times applying both genetic algorithm and regression analyses in order to examine the data-sensitivity and robustness of the generated models. The optimal rule set derived from genetic algorithm analyses included the following variables: mean initial volume, landowner's positive price expectations for the next eight years, landowner being classified as farmer, and preference for the recreational use of forest property. When tested with previously unseen test data, the optimal rule set resulted in a relative root mean square error of 0.40. In the regression analyses, the optimal regression equation consisted of the following variables: mean initial volume, proportion of forestry income, intention to cut extensively in future, and positive price expectations for the next two years. The R2 of the optimal regression equation was 0.34 and the relative root mean square error obtained from the test data was 0.38. In both models, mean initial volume and positive stumpage price expectations were entered as significant predictors of potential cut of preferred timber management strategy. When tested with the complete data set of 201 observations, both the optimal rule set and the optimal regression model achieved the same level of accuracy.
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Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) assist in strategic decision-making activities considering spatial and temporal variables, which help in Regional planning. WEPA is a SDSS designed for assessment of wind potential spatially. A wind energy system transforms the kinetic energy of the wind into mechanical or electrical energy that can be harnessed for practical use. Wind energy can diversify the economies of rural communities, adding to the tax base and providing new types of income. Wind turbines can add a new source of property value in rural areas that have a hard time attracting new industry. Wind speed is extremely important parameter for assessing the amount of energy a wind turbine can convert to electricity: The energy content of the wind varies with the cube (the third power) of the average wind speed. Estimation of the wind power potential for a site is the most important requirement for selecting a site for the installation of a wind electric generator and evaluating projects in economic terms. It is based on data of the wind frequency distribution at the site, which are collected from a meteorological mast consisting of wind anemometer and a wind vane and spatial parameters (like area available for setting up wind farm, landscape, etc.). The wind resource is governed by the climatology of the region concerned and has large variability with reference to space (spatial expanse) and time (season) at any fixed location. Hence the need to conduct wind resource surveys and spatial analysis constitute vital components in programs for exploiting wind energy. SDSS for assessing wind potential of a region / location is designed with user friendly GUI’s (Graphic User Interface) using VB as front end with MS Access database (backend). Validation and pilot testing of WEPA SDSS has been done with the data collected for 45 locations in Karnataka based on primary data at selected locations and data collected from the meteorological observatories of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Wind energy and its characteristics have been analysed for these locations to generate user-friendly reports and spatial maps. Energy Pattern Factor (EPF) and Power Densities are computed for sites with hourly wind data. With the knowledge of EPF and mean wind speed, mean power density is computed for the locations with only monthly data. Wind energy conversion systems would be most effective in these locations during May to August. The analyses show that coastal and dry arid zones in Karnataka have good wind potential, which if exploited would help local industries, coconut and areca plantations, and agriculture. Pre-monsoon availability of wind energy would help in irrigating these orchards, making wind energy a desirable alternative.
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Pesquisa focada na definição de um modelo teórico-sistêmico de Gestão do Conhecimento Estratégico (GCE), estando inserida nos estudos da Gestão do Conhecimento (GC) e da Gestão da Informação (GI), considerando conceitos relacionados ao conhecimento (tácito e explícito), a estratégias (perspectivas e abordagens) e aos agentes envolvidos (decisores e estrategistas; novatos e experientes). A construção do modelo se vale de visões da Ciência da Informação, da Administração e da Psicologia Cognitiva. A metodologia empregada utiliza o método abdutivo de pesquisa (uso concomitante dos métodos indutivo e dedutivo), valendo-se da análise bibliográfica (para sustentação teórica do modelo), do estudo comparado (para a avaliação de diferentes modelos de GC e de abordagens e perspectivas estratégicas) e da pesquisa descritiva ou de campo (para validação do modelo junto a profissionais da área em estudo). Os resultados indicam que é possível definir-se um modelo de Gestão do Conhecimento estratégico e que muitos trabalhos podem ser desenvolvidos, derivados da proposta apresentada nesta tese.
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Um dos problemas mais relevantes em organizações de grande porte é a escolha de locais para instalação de plantas industriais, centros de distribuição ou mesmo pontos comerciais. Esse problema logístico é uma decisão estratégica que pode causar um impacto significativo no custo total do produto comercializado. Existem na literatura diversos trabalhos que abordam esse problema. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho é analisar o problema da localização de instalações proposto por diferentes autores e definir um modelo que seja o mais adequado possível ao mercado de distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil. Para isso, foi realizada uma análise do fluxo de refino e distribuição praticado neste segmento e da formação do respectivo custo de transporte. Foram consideradas restrições como capacidade de estoque, gama de produtos ofertados e níveis da hierarquia de distribuição. A partir dessa análise, foi definido um modelo matemático aplicado à redução dos custos de frete considerando-se a carga tributária. O modelo matemático foi implementado, em linguagem C, e permite simular o problema. Foram aplicadas técnicas de computação paralela visando reduzir o tempo de execução do algoritmo. Os resultados obtidos com o modelo Single Uncapacited Facility Location Problem (SUFLP) simulado nas duas versões do programa, sequencial e paralela, demonstram ganhos de até 5% em economia de custos e redução do tempo de execução em mais de 50%.