An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

Crowded Rosselia ichnofabric in the Early Devonian of Brazil: An example of strategic behavior

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Dynamics of Bora wind over the Adriatic sea: atmospheric water balance and role of air-sea fluxes and orography

The Bora wind is a mesoscale phenomenon which typically affects the Adriatic Sea basin for several days each year, especially during winter. The Bora wind has been studied for its intense outbreak across the Dinaric Alps. The properties of the Bora wind are widely discussed in the literature and scientific papers usually focus on the eastern Adriatic coast where strong turbulence and severe gust intensity are more pronounced. However, the impact of the Bora wind can be significant also over Italy, not only in terms of wind speed instensity. Depending on the synoptic pressure pattern (cyclonic or anticyclonic Bora) and on the season, heavy snowfall, severe storms, storm surges and floods can occur along the Adriatic coast and on the windward flanks of the Apennines. In the present work five Bora cases that occurred in recent years have been selected and their evolution has been simulated with the BOLAM-MOLOCH model set, developed at ISAC-CNR in Bologna. Each case study has been addressed by a control run and by several sensitivity tests, performed with the purpose of better understanding the role played by air-sea latent and sensible heat fluxes. The tests show that the removal of the fluxes induces modifications in the wind approching the coast and a decrease of the total precipitation amount predicted over Italy. In order to assess the role of heat fluxes, further analysis has been carried out: column integrated water vapour fluxes have been computed along the Italian coastline and an atmospheric water balance has been evaluated inside a box volume over the Adriatic Sea. The balance computation shows that, although latent heat flux produces a significant impact on the precipitation field, its contribution to the balance is relatively minor. The most significant and lasting case study, that of February 2012, has been studied in more detail in order to explain the impressive drop in the total precipitation amount simulated in the sensitivity tests with removed heat fluxes with respect to the CNTRL run. In these experiments relative humidity and potential temperature distribution over different cross-sections have been examined. With respect to the CNTRL run a drier and more stable boundary layer, characterised by a more pronounced wind shear at the lower levels, has been observed to establish above the Adriatic Sea. Finally, in order to demonstrate that also the interaction of the Bora flow with the Apennines plays a crucial role, sensitivity tests varying the orography height have been considered. The results of such sensitivity tests indicate that the propagation of the Bora wind over the Adriatic Sea, and in turn its meteorological impact over Italy, is influenced by both the large air-sea heat fluxes and the interaction with the Apennines that decelerate the upstream flow.

Coastal floods and decadal changes: the climate factor

Observation has widely shown for nearly all last century that the Spanish (Dynamic) Maritime Climate was following around 10 to 11 year cycles in its most significant figure, wind wave, despite it being better to register cycles of 20 to 22 years, in analogical way with the semi-diurnal and diurnal cycles of Cantabrian tides. Those cycles were soon linked to sun activity and, at the end of the century, the latter was related to the Solar System evolution. We know now that waves and storm surges are coupled and that (Dynamic) Maritime Climate forms part of a more complex “Thermal Machine” including Hydrological cycle. The analysis of coastal floods could so facilitate the extension of that experience. According to their immediate cause, simple flood are usually sorted out into flash, pluvial, fluvial, groundwater and coastal types, considering the last as caused by sea waters. But the fact is that most of coastal floods are the result of the concomitance of several former simple types. Actually, the several Southeastern Mediterranean coastal flood events show to be the result of the superposition within the coastal zone of flash, fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flood types under boundary condition imposed by the concomitant storm sea level rise. This work shall be regarded as an attempt to clarify that cyclic experience, through an in-depth review of a past flood events in Valencia (Turia and Júcar basins), as in Murcia (Segura’s) as well.

Duration of extreme wave conditions /

Mode of access: Internet.

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"June 1987."

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Mode of access: Internet.

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An analysis of drag coefficient at hurricane windspeeds from a numerical simulation of dynamical water level changes in Lake Okeechobee, Florida /

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The statistical anatomy of ocean wave spectra /

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The slope of lake surfaces under variable wind stresses /

Mode of access: Internet.