927 resultados para Stock price forecasting -- United States -- Computer simulation


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The biodiesel industry in the United States has realized significant growth over the past decade through large increases in annual production and production capacity and a transition from smaller batch plants to larger-scale continuous producers. The larger, continuous-flow plants provide operating cost advantages over the smaller batch plants through their ability to capture co-products and reuse certain components in the production process. This paper uses a simple capital budgeting model developed by the authors along with production data supplied by industry sources to estimate production costs, return-on-investment levels, and break-even conditions for two common plant sizes (30 and 60 million gallon annual capacities) over a range of biodiesel and feedstock price levels. The analysis shows that the larger plant realizes returns to scale in both labor and capital costs, enabling the larger plant to pay up to $0.015 more per pound for the feedstock to achieve equivalent return levels as the smaller plant under the same conditions. The paper contributes to the growing literature on the biodiesel industry by using the most current conversion rates for the production technology and current price levels to estimate biodiesel production costs and potential plant performance, providing a useful follow-up to previous studies.

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In January 1983 a group of US government, industry and university information specialists gathered at MIT to take stock of efforts to monitor, acquire, assess, and disseminate Japanese scientific and technical information (JSTI). It was agreed that these efforts were uncoordinated and poorly conceived, and that a clearer understanding of Japanese technical information systems and a clearer sense of its importance to end users was necessary. That meeting led to formal technology assessments, Congressinal hearings, and legislation; it also helped stimulate several private initiatives in JSTI provision. Four years later there exist better coordinated and better conceived JSTI programs in both the public and private sectors, but there remains much room for improvement. This paper will recount their development and assess future directions.

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Real exchange rate is an important macroeconomic price in the economy and a ects economic activity, interest rates, domestic prices, trade and investiments ows among other variables. Methodologies have been developed in empirical exchange rate misalignment studies to evaluate whether a real e ective exchange is overvalued or undervalued. There is a vast body of literature on the determinants of long-term real exchange rates and on empirical strategies to implement the equilibrium norms obtained from theoretical models. This study seeks to contribute to this literature by showing that it is possible to calculate the misalignment from a mixed ointegrated vector error correction framework. An empirical exercise using United States' real exchange rate data is performed. The results suggest that the model with mixed frequency data is preferred to the models with same frequency variables

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It is generally observed that whenever there are cases of disease outbreaks and food recalls, such as the case of the 2003 Mad Cow Disease (Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy or BSE) outbreak, cattle and beef prices fall. Given these incidents, there is the question of which part of the marketing chain is the most affected. For those who produce live cattle, such as feedlot operators, the question is ‘what effect these events have on price and demand for beef and cattle?’ Similarly, how do the Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) recalls and diseases such as Mad Cow Disease outbreaks affect the beef marketing margins at all levels in the U.S. beef marketing chain? Identifying these effects along the marketing chain provides insight into which level along that channel is the most vulnerable to these events. In addition, this information helps to assess the impact of such events on the industry, providing a basis for policy formulation.

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Die vorliegende Doktorarbeit befasst sich mit klassischen Vektor-Spingläsern eine Art von ungeordneten Magneten - auf verschiedenen Gittertypen. Da siernbedeutsam für eine experimentelle Realisierung sind, ist ein theoretisches Verständnis von Spinglas-Modellen mit wenigen Spinkomponenten und niedriger Gitterdimension von großer Bedeutung. Da sich dies jedoch als sehr schwierigrnerweist, sind neue, aussichtsreiche Ansätze nötig. Diese Arbeit betrachtet daher den Limesrnunendlich vieler Spindimensionen. Darin entstehen mehrere Vereinfachungen im Vergleichrnzu Modellen niedriger Spindimension, so dass für dieses bedeutsame Problem Eigenschaften sowohl bei Temperatur Null als auch bei endlichen Temperaturenrnüberwiegend mit numerischen Methoden ermittelt werden. Sowohl hyperkubische Gitter als auch ein vielseitiges 1d-Modell werden betrachtet. Letzteres erlaubt es, unterschiedliche Universalitätsklassen durch bloßes Abstimmen eines einzigen Parameters zu untersuchen. "Finite-size scaling''-Formen, kritische Exponenten, Quotienten kritischer Exponenten und andere kritische Größen werden nahegelegt und mit numerischen Ergebnissen verglichen. Eine detaillierte Beschreibung der Herleitungen aller numerisch ausgewerteter Gleichungen wird ebenso angegeben. Bei Temperatur Null wird eine gründliche Untersuchung der Grundzustände und Defektenergien gemacht. Eine Reihe interessanter Größen wird analysiert und insbesondere die untere kritische Dimension bestimmt. Bei endlicher Temperatur sind der Ordnungsparameter und die Spinglas-Suszeptibilität über die numerisch berechnete Korrelationsmatrix zugänglich. Das Spinglas-Modell im Limes unendlich vieler Spinkomponenten kann man als Ausgangspunkt zur Untersuchung der natürlicheren Modelle mit niedriger Spindimension betrachten. Wünschenswert wäre natürlich ein Modell, das die Vorteile des ersten mit den Eigenschaften des zweiten verbände. Daher wird in Modell mit Anisotropie vorgeschlagen und getestet, mit welchem versucht wird, dieses Ziel zu erreichen. Es wird auf reizvolle Wege hingewiesen, das Modell zu nutzen und eine tiefergehende Beschäftigung anzuregen. Zuletzt werden sogenannte "real-space" Renormierungsgruppenrechnungen sowohl analytisch als auch numerisch für endlich-dimensionale Vektor-Spingläser mit endlicher Anzahl von Spinkomponenten durchgeführt. Dies wird mit einer zuvor bestimmten neuen Migdal-Kadanoff Rekursionsrelation geschehen. Neben anderen Größen wird die untere kritische Dimension bestimmt.

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This study summarises all the accessible data on old German chemical weapons dumped in the Baltic Sea. Mr. Goncharov formulated a concept of ecological impact evaluation of chemical warfare agents (CWA) on the marine environment and structured a simulation model adapted to the specific character of the hydrological condition and hydrobiological subjects of the Bornholm Deep. The mathematical model he has created describes the spreading of contaminants by currents and turbulence in the near bottom boundary layer. Parameters of CWA discharge through corrosion of canisters were given for various kinds of bottom sediments with allowance for current velocity. He created a method for integral estimations and a computer simulation model and completed a forecast for CWA "Mustard", which showed that in normal hydrometeorological conditions there are local toxic plumes drifting along the bottom for a distance of up to several kilometres. With storm winds the toxic plumes from separate canisters interflow and lengthen and can reach fishery areas near Bornholm Island. When salt water from the North Sea flows in, the length of toxic zones can increase up to and over 100 kilometres and toxic water masses can spread into the northern Baltic. On this basis, Mr. Goncharov drew up recommendations to reduce dangers for human ecology and proposed the creation of a special system for the forecasting and remote sensing of the environmental conditions of CWA burial places.

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The dissertation titled "Driver Safety in Far-side and Far-oblique Crashes" presents a novel approach to assessing vehicle cockpit safety by integrating Human Factors and Applied Mechanics. The methodology of this approach is aimed at improving safety in compact mobile workspaces such as patrol vehicle cockpits. A statistical analysis performed using Michigan state's traffic crash data to assess various contributing factors that affect the risk of severe driver injuries showed that the risk was greater for unrestrained drivers (OR=3.38, p<0.0001) and for incidents involving front and far-side crashes without seatbelts (OR=8.0 and 23.0 respectively, p<0.005). Statistics also showed that near-side and far-side crashes pose similar threat to driver injury severity. A Human Factor survey was conducted to assess various Human-Machine/Human-Computer Interaction aspects in patrol vehicle cockpits. Results showed that tasks requiring manual operation, especially the usage of laptop, would require more attention and potentially cause more distraction. A vehicle survey conducted to evaluate ergonomics-related issues revealed that some of the equipment was in airbag deployment zones. In addition, experiments were conducted to assess the effects on driver distraction caused by changing the position of in-car accessories. A driving simulator study was conducted to mimic HMI/HCI in a patrol vehicle cockpit (20 subjects, average driving experience = 5.35 years, s.d. = 1.8). It was found that the mounting locations of manual tasks did not result in a significant change in response times. Visual displays resulted in response times less than 1.5sec. It can also be concluded that the manual task was equally distracting regardless of mounting positions (average response time was 15 secs). Average speeds and lane deviations did not show any significant results. Data from 13 full-scale sled tests conducted to simulate far-side impacts at 70 PDOF and 40 PDOF was used to analyze head injuries and HIC/AIS values. It was found that accelerations generated by the vehicle deceleration alone were high enough to cause AIS 3 - AIS 6 injuries. Pretensioners could mitigated injuries only in 40 PDOF (oblique) impacts but are useless in 70 PDOF impacts. Seat belts were ineffective in protecting the driver's head from injuries. Head would come in contact with the laptop during a far-oblique (40 PDOF) crash and far-side door for an angle-type crash (70 PDOF). Finite Element analysis head-laptop impact interaction showed that the contact velocity was the most crucial factor in causing a severe (and potentially fatal) head injury. Results indicate that no equipment may be mounted in driver trajectory envelopes. A very narrow band of space is left in patrol vehicles for installation of manual-task equipment to be both safe and ergonomic. In case of a contact, the material stiffness and damping properties play a very significant role in determining the injury outcome. Future work may be done on improving the interiors' material properties to better absorb and dissipate kinetic energy of the head. The design of seat belts and pretensioners may also be seen as an essential aspect to be further improved.

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This research examines the role of social context in ethical consumption, specifically, the extent to which anonymity and social control influence individuals' decisions to purchase organic and Fair Trade coffee. Our research design overcomes biases of prior research by combining framing and discrete choice experiments in a survey. We systematically vary coffee growing method (organic or not), import status (Fair Trade or not), flavor, and price across four social contexts that vary in degree of anonymity and normative social control. The social contexts are buying coffee online, in a large grocery store, in a small neighborhood shop, and for a meeting of a human rights group. Subjects comprise 1,103 German and American undergraduate students. We find that social context indeed influences subjects' ethical consumer decisions, especially in situations with low anonymity and high social control. In addition, gender, coffee buying, and subjective social norms trigger heterogeneity regarding stated ethical consumption and the effects of social context. These results suggest previous research has underestimated the relevance of social context for ethical consumption and overestimated altruistic motives of ethical consumers. Our study demonstrates the great potential of discrete choice experiments for the study of social action and decision making processes in sociology.

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This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Map of the middle states of North America : shewing the position of the Geneseo country comprehending the counties of Ontario & Steuben as laid off in townships of six miles squar[e] each, Maverick, sculpt. It was printed by T. & J. Swords for Charles Williamson's Description of the settlement of the Genesee country, in the state of New-York, 1799. Scale [ca. 1:2,250,000]. Partial cadastral map showing large land purchases and township grants in New York State. Covers New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington, D.C. and portions of Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) Zone 18N NAD83 projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as roads, drainage, major cities and towns, land purchases, township grants, state boundaries, and more. Includes key to "principal villages in Ontario & Steuben counties." This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

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This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Carte du Mexique : et des pays limitrophes situés au nord et à l'est, dressée d'après la grande cart de la Nouvelle Espagne de Mr. A. de Humbold et d'autres materiaux par J. B. Poirson ; gravé par Barriere et l'écriture par L Aubert. It was published by F. Schoell in 1811. Scale [ca. 1:8,000,000]. Map in French. Covers portion of North America, including the United States from the 42nd parallel south, Mexico, the Caribbean Islands east to Haiti, and portions of Guatamala, Belize, and Honduras. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the 'World Mercator' projection. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities, indian settlements and other human settlements, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief is shown by hachures. Includes historical notes. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection and the Harvard University Library as part of the Open Collections Program at Harvard University project: Organizing Our World: Sponsored Exploration and Scientific Discovery in the Modern Age. Maps selected for the project correspond to various expeditions and represent a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

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Texas Department of Transportation, Austin