A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0-430 ka and five records from 0-798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ~80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). When we compare the sea level stack with the d18O of benthic foraminifera, we find that sea level change accounts for about ~40 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic d18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the d18O of seawater.

Radiocarbon dating, oxygen isotopes, and sea-level reconstruction of sediment core GeoB5844-2 from the northern end of the Red Sea

Based on a radiocarbon and paleomagnetically dated sediment record from the northern Red Sea and the exceptional sensitivity of the regional changes in the oxygen isotope composition of sea water to the sea-level-dependent water exchange with the Indian Ocean, we provide a new global sea-level reconstruction spanning the last glacial period. The sea-level record has been extracted from the temperature-corrected benthic stable oxygen isotopes using coral-based sea-level data as constraints for the sea-level/oxygen isotope relationship. Although, the general features of this millennial-scale sea-level records have strong similarities to the rather symmetric and gradual Southern Hemisphere climate patterns, we observe, in constrast to previous findings, pronounced sea level rises of up to 25 m to generally correspond with Northern Hemisphere warmings as recorded in Greenland ice-core interstadial intervals whereas sea-level lowstands mostly occur during cold phases. Corroborated by CLIMBER-2 model results, the close connection of millennial-scale sea-level changes to Northern Hemisphere temperature variations indicates a primary climatic control on the mass balance of the major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and does not require a considerable Antarctic contribution.

A 5 million year reconstruction of sea level, temperature, and sea water d18O

Marine sediment records from the Oligocene and Miocene reveal clear 400,000-year (400-kyr) climate cycles related to variations in orbital eccentricity. These cycles are also observed in the Plio-Pleistocene records of the global carbon cycle. However they are absent in the Late Pleistocene ice-age record over the past 1.5 million years. Here, we present a simulation of global ice volume over the past 5 million years with a coupled system of four 3-D ice-sheet models. Our simulation shows that the 400-kyr long eccentricity cycles of Antarctica vary coherently with d13C records during the Pleistocene suggesting that they drive the long-term carbon cycle changes throughout the past 35 million years. The 400-kyr response of Antarctica is eventually suppressed by the dominant 100-kyr glacial cycles of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere (NH).

Grain size distribution and sea level changes in Gåsfjärden fjord

We analysed long-term variations in grain-size distribution in sediments from Gåsfjärden, a fjord-like inlet on the south-west Baltic Sea, and explored potential drivers of the recorded changes in sediment grain-size data. Over the last 5.4 thousand years (ka), the relative sea level decreased 17 m in the study region, caused by isostatic land uplift. As a consequence, Gåsfjärden has been transformed from an open coastal setting into a semi-closed inlet surrounded on the east by numerous small islands. To quantitatively estimate the morphological changes in Gåsfjärden over the last 5.4 ka and to further link the changes to our grain-size data, a digital elevation model (DEM)-based openness index was calculated. In the period between 5.4 and 4.4 ka BP, the inlet was characterised by the largest openness index. During this interval, the highest sand contents (~0.4 %) and silt/clay ratios (~0. 3) in the sediment sequence were recorded, indicating relatively high bottom water energy. After 4.4 ka BP, the average sand content was halved to ~0.2 % and the silt/clay ratios showed a significant decreasing trend over the last 4 ka. These changes are found to be associated with the gradual embayment of Gåsfjärden as represented in the openness index. The silt/clay ratios exhibited a delayed and slower change compared with the sand contents, which further suggest that finer particles are less sensitive to changes in hydrodynamic energy. Our DEM-based coastal openness index has proved to be a useful tool for interpreting the sedimentary grain-size record.

Does sea-level rise have an impact on saltwater intrusion?

Climate change effects are expected to substantially raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will have a severe adverse impact on saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. In this study we hypothesize that a natural mechanism, identified as the “lifting process” has the potential to mitigate or in some cases completely reverse the adverse intrusion effects induced by sea-level rise. A detailed numerical study using the MODFLOW-family computer code SEAWAT, was completed to test this hypothesis and to understand the effects of this lifting process in both confined and unconfined systems. Our conceptual simulation results show that if the ambient recharge remains constant, the sea-level rise will have no long-term impact (i.e., it will not affect the steady-state salt wedge) on confined aquifers. Our transient confined flow simulations show a self-reversal mechanism where the wedge which will initially intrude into the formation due to the sea-level rise would be naturally driven back to the original position. In unconfined systems, the lifting process would have a lesser influence due to changes in the value of effective transmissivity. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also completed to understand the sensitivity of this self-reversal effect to various aquifer parameters.

Evidence for carbonate platform failure during rapid sea-level rise; ca 14 000 year old bioclastic flow deposits in the Lesser Antilles

Bioclastic flow deposits offshore from the Soufrie`re Hills volcano on Montserrat in the Lesser Antilles were deposited by the largest volume sediment flows near this active volcano in the last 26 kyr. The volume of these deposits exceeds that of the largest historic volcanic dome collapse in the world, which occurred on Montserrat in 2003. These flows were most probably generated by a large submarine slope failure of the carbonate shelf comprising the south west flank of Antigua or the east flank of Redonda; adjacent islands that are not volcanically active. The bioclastic flow deposits are relatively coarse-grained and either ungraded or poorly graded, and were deposited by non cohesive debris flow and high density turbidity currents. The bioclastic deposit often comprises multiple sub-units that cannot be correlated between core sites; some located just 2 km apart. Multiple sub-units in the bioclastic deposit result from either flow reflection, stacking of multiple debris flow lobes, and/or multi-stage collapse of the initial landslide. This study provides unusually precise constraints on the age of this mass flow event that occurred at ca 14 ka. Few large submarine landslides have been well dated, but the slope failures that have been dated are commonly associated with periods of rapid sea-level change.

Mid-Holocene sea-level and coral reef demise : U-Th dating of subfossil corals in Moreton Bay, Australia

It is increasingly apparent that sea-level data (e.g. microfossil transfer functions, dated coral microatolls and direct observations from satellite and tidal gauges) vary temporally and spatially at regional to local scales, thus limiting our ability to model future sea-level rise for many regions. Understanding sealevel response at ‘far-field’ locations at regional scales is fundamental for formulating more relevant sea-level rise susceptibility models within these regions under future global change projections. Fossil corals and reefs in particular are valuable tools for reconstructing past sea levels and possible environmental phase shifts beyond the temporal constraints of instrumental records. This study used abundant surface geochronological data based on in situ subfossil corals and precise elevation surveys to determine previous sea level in Moreton Bay, eastern Australia, a far-field site. A total of 64 U-Th dates show that relative sea level was at least 1.1 m above modern lowest astronomical tide (LAT) from at least ˜6600 cal. yr BP. Furthermore, a rapid synchronous demise in coral reef growth occurred in Moreton Bay ˜5800 cal. yr BP, coinciding with reported reef hiatus periods in other areas around the Indo-Pacific region. Evaluating past reef growth patterns and phases allows for a better interpretation of anthropogenic forcing versus natural environmental/climatic cycles that effect reef formation and demise at all scales and may allow better prediction of reef response to future global change.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.