Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Milling quality and protein properties of autumn-sown Chinese wheats evaluated through multi-location trials

Eight milling quality and protein properties of autumn-sown Chinese wheats were investigated using 59 cultivars and advanced lines grown in 14 locations in China from 1995 to 1998. Wide ranges of variability for all traits were observed across genotypes and locations. Genotype, location, year, and their interactions all significantly influenced most of the quality parameters. Kernel hardness, Zeleny sedimentation value, and mixograph development time were predominantly influenced by the effects of genotype. Genotype, location and genotype x location interaction were all important sources of variation for thousand kernel weight, test weight, protein content, and falling number, whereas genotype x location interaction had the largest effect on flour yield. Most of the genotypes were characterized by weak gluten strength with Zeleny sedimentation values less than 40 ml and mixograph development time shorter than 3 min. Eight groups of genotypes were recognized based on the average quality performance, grain hardness and gluten strength were the two parameters that determined the grouping, with contributions from protein content. Genotypes such as Zhongyou 16 and Annong 8903 displayed good milling quality, high grain hardness, protein content and strong gluten strength with high sedimentation value and long mixograph development time. Genotypes such as Lumai 15 and Yumai 18 were characterized by low grain hardness, protein content and weak gluten strength. Genotypes such as Yannong 15 and Chuanmai 24 were characterized by strong gluten strength with high sedimentation value and long mixograph development time, but low grain hardness and protein content lower than 12.3%. Genotypes such as Jingdong 6 and Xi'an 8 had weak gluten strength, but with high grain hardness and protein content higher than 12.2%. Five groups of locations were identified, and protein content and gluten strength were the two parameters that determined the grouping. Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Nanyang, Zhumadian and Nanjing produced wheats with medium to strong gluten strength and medium protein content, although there was still a large variation for most of the traits investigated between the locations. Wheat produced in Yantai was characterized by strong gluten strength, but with low protein content. Jinan, Anyang and Linfen locations produced wheats with medium to weak gluten strength and medium to high protein content. Wheats produced in Yangling, Zhenzhou, and Chengdu were characterized by weak gluten strength with medium to low protein content, whereas wheats produced in Xuzhou and Wuhan were characterized by weak gluten strength with low protein content. Industrial grain quality could be substantially improved through integrating knowledge of geographic genotype distribution with key location variables that affected end-use quality.

Grain yield components of pearl millet under optimum conditions can be used to identify germplasm with adaptation to and zones

There is evidence that high-tillering, small-panicled pearl millet landraces are better adapted to the severe, unpredictable drought stress of the and zones of NW India than are low-tillering, large-panicled modern varieties, which significantly outyield the landraces under favourable conditions. In this paper, we analyse the relationship of and zone adaptation with the expression, under optimum conditions, of yield components that determine either the potential sink size or the ability to realise this potential. The objective is to test whether selection under optimal conditions for yield components can identify germplasm with adaptation to and zones in NW India, as this could potentially improve the efficiency of pearl millet improvement programs targeting and zones. We use data from an evaluation of over 100 landraces from NW India, conducted for two seasons under both severely drought-stressed and favourable conditions in northwest and south India. Trial average grain yields ranged from 14 g m(-2) to 182 g m(-2). The landraces were grouped into clusters, based on their phenology and yield components as measured under well-watered conditions in south India. In environments without pre-flowering drought stress, tillering type had no effect on potential sink size, but low-tillering, large-panicled landraces yielded significantly more grain, as they were better able to realise their potential sink size. By contrast, in two low-yielding and zone environments which experienced pre-anthesis drought stress, low-fillering, large-panicled landraces yielded significantly less grain than high-tillering ones with comparable phenology, because of both a reduced potential sink size and a reduced ability to realise this potential. The results indicate that the high grain yield of low-tillering, large-panicled landraces under favourable conditions is due to improved partitioning, rather than resource capture. However, under severe stress with restricted assimilate supply, high-tillering, small-panicled landraces are better able to produce a reproductive sink than are large-panicled ones. Selection under optimum conditions for yield components representing a resource allocation pattern favouring high yield under severe drought stress, combined with a capability to increase grain yield if assimilates are available, was more effective than direct selection for grain yield in identifying germplasm adapted to and zones. Incorporating such selection in early generations of variety testing could reduce the reliance on random stress environments. This should improve the efficiency of millet breeding programs targeting and zones. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen dynamics and nitrogen use efficiency of spring cereals under Finnish growing conditions

Nitrogen (N) is one of the main inputs in cereal cultivation and as more than half of the arable land in Finland is used for cereal production, N has contributed substantially to agricultural pollution through fertilizer leaching and runoff. Based on this global phenomenon, the European Community has launched several directives to reduce agricultural emissions to the environment. Trough such measures, and by using economic incentives, it is expected that northern European agricultural practices will, in the future, include reduced N fertilizer application rates. Reduced use of N fertilizer is likely to decrease both production costs and pollution, but could also result in reduced yields and quality if crops experience temporary N deficiency. Therefore, more efficient N use in cereal production, to minimize pollution risks and maximize farmer income, represents a current challenge for agronomic research in the northern growing areas. The main objective of this study was to determine the differences in nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among spring cereals grown in Finland. Additional aims were to characterize the multiple roles of NUE by analysing the extent of variation in NUE and its component traits among different cultivars, and to understand how other physiological traits, especially radiation use efficiency (RUE) and light interception, affect and interact with the main components of NUE and contribute to differences among cultivars. This study included cultivars of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oat (Avena sativa L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.). Field experiments were conducted between 2001 and 2004 at Jokioinen, in Finland. To determine differences in NUE among cultivars and gauge the achievements of plant breeding in NUE, 17-18 cultivars of each of the three cereal species released between 1909 and 2002 were studied. Responses to nitrogen of landraces, old cultivars and modern cultivars of each cereal species were evaluated under two N regimes (0 and 90 kg N ha-1). Results of the study revealed that modern wheat, oat and barley cultivars had similar NUE values under Finnish growing conditions and only results from a wider range of cultivars indicated that wheat cultivars could have lower NUE than the other species. There was a clear relationship between nitrogen uptake efficiency (UPE) and NUE in all species whereas nitrogen utilization efficiency (UTE) had a strong positive relationship with NUE only for oat. UTE was clearly lower in wheat than in other species. Other traits related to N translocation indicated that wheat also had a lower harvest index, nitrogen harvest index and nitrogen remobilisation efficiency and therefore its N translocation efficiency was confirmed to be very low. On the basis of these results there appears to be potential and also a need for improvement in NUE. These results may help understand the underlying physiological differences in NUE and could help to identify alternative production options, such as the different roles that species can play in crop rotations designed to meet the demands of modern agricultural practices.

Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance

Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance.

Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance

Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance.

Pathogens occuring in the winter pea-maize-winter wheat rotation, their host specificity and the potential of compost in suppressing foot and root disease of peas

The overall aim of the work presented was to evaluate soil health management with a specific focus on soil borne diseases of peas. For that purpose field experiments were carried out from 2009 until 2013 to assess crop performance and pathogen occurrence in the rotation winter pea-maize-winter wheat and if the application of composts can improve system performance. The winter peas were left untreated or inoculated with Phoma medicaginis, in the presence or absence of yard waste compost at rate of 5 t dry matter ha-1. A second application of compost was made to the winter wheat. Fusarium ssp. were isolated and identified from the roots of all three crops and the Ascochyta complex pathogens on peas. Bioassays were conducted under controlled conditions to assess susceptibility of two peas to Fusarium avenaceum, F. solani, P. medicaginis and Didymella pinodes and of nine plant species to F. avenaceum. Also, effects of compost applications and temperature on pea diseases were assessed. Application of composts overall stabilized crop performance but it did not lead to significant yield increases nor did it affect pathogen composition and occurrence. Phoma medicaginis was dominating the pathogen complex on peas. F. graminearum, F. culmorum, F. proliferatum, Microdochium nivale, F. crookwellense, F. sambucinum, F. oxysporum, F. avenaceum and F. equiseti were frequently isolated species from maize and winter wheat with no obvious influence of the pre-crop on the Fusarium species composition. The spring pea Santana was considerably more susceptible to the pathogens tested than the winter pea EFB33 in both sterile sand and non-sterilized field soil. F. avenaceum was the most aggressive pathogen, followed by P. medicaginis, D. pinodes, and F. solani. Aggressiveness of all pathogens was greatly reduced in non-sterile field soil. F. avenaceum caused severe symptoms on roots of all nine plant species tested. Especially susceptible were Trifolium repens, T. subterraneum, Brassica juncea and Sinapis alba in addition to peas. Reduction of growing temperatures from 19/16°C day/night to 16/12°C and 13/10°C did not affect the efficacy of compost. It reduced plant growth and slightly increased disease on EFB33 whereas the highest disease severity on Santana was observed at the highest temperature, 19/16°C. Application of 20% v/v of compost reduced disease on peas due to all four pathogens depending on pea variety, pathogen and growing media used. Suppression was also achieved with lower application rate of 3.5% v/v. Tests with γ sterilized compost suggest that the suppression of disease caused by Fusarium spp. is biological in origin, whereas chemical and physical properties of compost are playing an additional role in the suppression of disease caused by D. pinodes and P. medicaginis.

The effects of irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer and grain size on Hagberg falling number, specific weight and blackpoint of winter wheat

The effects of irrigation and nitrogen (N) fertilizer on Hagberg falling number (HFN), specific weight (SW) and blackpoint (BP) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) were investigated. Mains water (+50 and +100 mm month(-1), containing 44 mg NO3- litre(-1) and 28 mg SO42- litre(-1)) was applied with trickle irrigation during winter (17 January-17 March), spring (21 March-20 May) or summer (24 May-23 July). In 1999/2000 these treatments were factorially combined with three N levels (0, 200, 400 kg N ha(-1)), applied to cv Hereward. In 2000/01 the 400 kg N ha(-1) treatment was replaced with cv Malacca given 200 kg N ha(-1). Irrigation increased grain yield, mostly by increasing grain numbers when applied in winter and spring, and by increasing mean grain weight when applied in summer. Nitrogen increased grain numbers and SW, and reduced BP in both years. Nitrogen increased HFN in 1999/2000 and reduced HFN in 2000/01. Effects of irrigation on HFN, SW and BP were smaller and inconsistent over year and nitrogen level. Irrigation interacted with N on mean grain weight: negatively for winter and spring irrigation, and positively for summer irrigation. Ten variables derived from digital image analysis of harvested grain were included with mean grain weight in a principal components analysis. The first principal component ('size') was negatively related to HFN (in two years) and BP (one year), and positively related to SW (two years). Treatment effects on dimensions of harvested grain could not explain all of the effects on HFN, BP and SW but the results were consistent with the hypothesis that water and nutrient availability, even when they were affected early in the season, could influence final grain quality if they influenced grain numbers and size. (C) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry

Long-term relationships between environment and abundance in wheat of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola

Relationships between weather, agronomic factors and wheat disease abundance were examined to determine possible causes of variability on century time scales. In archived samples of wheat grain and leaves obtained from the Rothamsted Broadbalk experiment archive (1844-2003), amounts of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola DNA were determined by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Relationships between amounts of pathogens and environmental and agronomic factors were examined by multiple regression. Wheat DNA decayed at approx. 1% yr(-1) in stored grain. No M. graminicola DNA was detected in grain samples. Fluctuations in amounts of P. nodorum in grain were related to changes in spring rainfall, summer temperature and national SO2 emission. Differences in amounts of P. nodorum between grain and leaf were related to summer temperature and spring rainfall. In leaves, annual variation in spring rainfall affected both pathogens similarly, but SO2 had opposite effects. Previous summer temperature had a highly significant effect on M. graminicola. Cultivar effects were significant only at P = 0.1. Long-term variation in P. nodorum and M. graminicola DNA in leaf and grain over the period 1844-2003 was dominated by factors related to national SO2 emissions. Annual variability was dominated by weather factors occurring over a period longer than the growing season.

The effect of the year of wheat variety release on productivity and stability of performance on two organic and two non-organic farms

Nineteen wheat cultivars, released from 1934 to 2000, were grown at two organic and two non-organic sites in each of 3 years. Assessments included grain yield, grain protein concentration, protein yield, disease incidence and green leaf area. The superiority of each cultivar (the sum of the squares of the differences between its mean in each environment and the mean of the best cultivar there, divided by twice the number of environments; CS) was calculated for yield, grain protein concentration and protein yield, and ranked in each environment. The yield and grain protein concentration CS were more closely correlated with cultivar release date at the non-organic sites than at organic sites. This difference may be attributed to higher yield levels with larger differences among cultivars at the non-organic sites, rather than to improved stability (i.e. similar ranks) across sites. The significant difference in the correlation of protein yield CS and cultivar age between organic and non-organic sites would support evidence that the ability to take up mineral nitrogen (N) compared to soil N has been a component of the selection conditions of more modern cultivars (released after 1989). This is supported by assessment of green leaf area (GLA), where more modern cultivars in the non-organic systems had greater late-season GLA, a trend that was not identified in organic conditions. This effect could explain the poor correlation between age and protein yield CS in organic compared to non-organic conditions where modern cultivars are selected to benefit from later nitrogen (N) availability which includes the spring nitrogen applications tailored to coincide with peak crop demand. Under organic management, N release is largely based on the breakdown of fertility-building crops incorporated (ploughed-in) in the previous autumn. The release of nutrients from these residues is dependent on the soil conditions, which includes temperature and microbial populations, in addition to the potential leaching effect of high winter rainfall in the UK. In organic cereal crops, early resource capture is a major advantage for maximizing the utilization of nutrients from residue breakdown. It is concluded that selection of cultivars under conditions of high agrochemical inputs selects for cultivars that yield well under maximal conditions in terms of nutrient availability and pest, disease and weed control. The selection conditions for breeding have a tendency to select cultivars which perform relatively better in non-organic compared to organic systems.

Association study of resistance to Soilborne wheat mosaic virus in U.S. winter wheat

Soilborne wheat mosaic virus (SBWMV) is one of the most important winter wheat pathogens worldwide. To identify genes for resistance to the virus in U.S. winter wheat, association study was conducted using a selected panel of 205 elite experimental lines and cultivars from U.S. hard and soft winter wheat breeding programs. Virus symptoms were evaluated twice in virus-infected fields for the panel at Manhattan, KS in spring 2010 and 2011 and for a subpanel of 137 hard winter wheat accessions at Stillwater, OK in spring 2008. At the two locations, 69.8 and 79.5% of cultivars were resistant or moderately resistant to the disease, respectively. After 282 simple-sequence repeat markers covering all wheat chromosome arms were scanned for association in the panel, marker Xgwm469 on the long arm of chromosome 5D (5DL) showed a significant association with the disease rating. Three alleles (Xgwm469-165bp, -167bp, and -169bp) were associated with resistance and the null allele was associated with susceptibility. Correlations between the marker and the disease rating were highly significant (0.80 in Manhattan at P < 0.0001 and 0.63 in Stillwater at P < 0.0001). The alleles Xgwm469-165bp and Xgwm469-169bp were present mainly in the hard winter wheat group, whereas allele Xgwm469-167bp was predominant in the soft winter wheat. The 169 bp allele can be traced back to 'Newton', and the 165 bp allele to Aegilops tauschii. In addition, a novel locus on the short arm of chromosome 4D (4DS) was also identified to associate with the disease rating. Marker Xgwm469-5DL is closely linked to SBWMV resistance and highly polymorphic across the winter wheat accessions sampled in the study and, thus, should be useful in marker-assisted selection in U.S. winter wheat.

Cromosomal location of four genes encoding Class III peroxidases in wheat

In a previous work, deduced amino acid sequences from twenty wheat peroxidase genes were assigned to seven groups designated as TaPrx108 to TaPrx114. Some of these apoplastic peroxidases have previously shown to play different roles in the plant defense responses to infection by the cereal cyst nematode Heterodera avenae. In the present study, PCR marker analysis using Sears’s aneuploid wheat lines cv. ‘Chinese Spring’ was used to locate four genes encoding peroxidase isozymes. The TaPrx111-A, TaPrx112-D and TaPrx113-F genes were located on the short arm of chromosome 2B and the TaPrx109-C on the long arm of chromosome 1B. These results would agree with the synteny between wheat and rice chromosomes previously established in other studies.

Examining wheat yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes for a large ensemble of crop models using impact response surfaces

Impact response surfaces (IRSs) depict the response of an impact variable to changes in two explanatory variables as a plotted surface. Here, IRSs of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 25-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models. Twenty-one models were calibrated by different groups using a common set of calibration data, with calibrations applied independently to the same models in three cases. The sensitivity of modelled yield to changes in temperature and precipitation was tested by systematically modifying values of 1981-2010 baseline weather data to span the range of 19 changes projected for the late 21st century at three locations in Europe.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.