A generalization of histogram type estimators

We introduce simple nonparametric density estimators that generalize theclassical histogram and frequency polygon. The new estimators are expressed as linear combination of density functions that are piecewisepolynomials, where the coefficients are optimally chosen in order to minimize the integrated square error of the estimator. We establish the asymptotic behaviour of the proposed estimators, and study theirperformance in a simulation study.

Recent decrease in the prevalence of congenital heart defects in europe.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in the prevalence of congenital heart defects (CHDs) in Europe and to compare these trends with the recent decrease in the prevalence of CHDs in Canada (Quebec) that was attributed to the policy of mandatory folic acid fortification. STUDY DESIGN: We used data for the period 1990-2007 for 47 508 cases of CHD not associated with a chromosomal anomaly from 29 population-based European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies registries in 16 countries covering 7.3 million births. We estimated trends for all CHDs combined and separately for 3 severity groups using random-effects Poisson regression models with splines. RESULTS: We found that the total prevalence of CHDs increased during the 1990s and the early 2000s until 2004 and decreased thereafter. We found essentially no trend in total prevalence of the most severe group (group I), whereas the prevalence of severity group II increased until about 2000 and decreased thereafter. Trends for severity group III (the most prevalent group) paralleled those for all CHDs combined. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of CHDs decreased in recent years in Europe in the absence of a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification. One possible explanation for this decrease may be an as-yet-undocumented increase in folic acid intake of women in Europe following recommendations for folic acid supplementation and/or voluntary fortification. However, alternative hypotheses, including reductions in risk factors of CHDs (eg, maternal smoking) and improved management of maternal chronic health conditions (eg, diabetes), must also be considered for explaining the observed decrease in the prevalence of CHDs in Europe or elsewhere.

A post-processing pipeline to reconstruct the developing fetal brain using low-resolution MRI

Introduction. Development of the fetal brain surfacewith concomitant gyrification is one of the majormaturational processes of the human brain. Firstdelineated by postmortem studies or by ultrasound, MRIhas recently become a powerful tool for studying in vivothe structural correlates of brain maturation. However,the quantitative measurement of fetal brain developmentis a major challenge because of the movement of the fetusinside the amniotic cavity, the poor spatial resolution,the partial volume effect and the changing appearance ofthe developing brain. Today extensive efforts are made todeal with the âeurooepost-acquisitionâeuro reconstruction ofhigh-resolution 3D fetal volumes based on severalacquisitions with lower resolution (Rousseau, F., 2006;Jiang, S., 2007). We here propose a framework devoted tothe segmentation of the basal ganglia, the gray-whitetissue segmentation, and in turn the 3D corticalreconstruction of the fetal brain. Method. Prenatal MRimaging was performed with a 1-T system (GE MedicalSystems, Milwaukee) using single shot fast spin echo(ssFSE) sequences in fetuses aged from 29 to 32gestational weeks (slice thickness 5.4mm, in planespatial resolution 1.09mm). For each fetus, 6 axialvolumes shifted by 1 mm were acquired (about 1 min pervolume). First, each volume is manually segmented toextract fetal brain from surrounding fetal and maternaltissues. Inhomogeneity intensity correction and linearintensity normalization are then performed. A highspatial resolution image of isotropic voxel size of 1.09mm is created for each fetus as previously published byothers (Rousseau, F., 2006). B-splines are used for thescattered data interpolation (Lee, 1997). Then, basalganglia segmentation is performed on this superreconstructed volume using active contour framework witha Level Set implementation (Bach Cuadra, M., 2010). Oncebasal ganglia are removed from the image, brain tissuesegmentation is performed (Bach Cuadra, M., 2009). Theresulting white matter image is then binarized andfurther given as an input in the Freesurfer software(http://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/) to provide accuratethree-dimensional reconstructions of the fetal brain.Results. High-resolution images of the cerebral fetalbrain, as obtained from the low-resolution acquired MRI,are presented for 4 subjects of age ranging from 29 to 32GA. An example is depicted in Figure 1. Accuracy in theautomated basal ganglia segmentation is compared withmanual segmentation using measurement of Dice similarity(DSI), with values above 0.7 considering to be a verygood agreement. In our sample we observed DSI valuesbetween 0.785 and 0.856. We further show the results ofgray-white matter segmentation overlaid on thehigh-resolution gray-scale images. The results arevisually checked for accuracy using the same principlesas commonly accepted in adult neuroimaging. Preliminary3D cortical reconstructions of the fetal brain are shownin Figure 2. Conclusion. We hereby present a completepipeline for the automated extraction of accuratethree-dimensional cortical surface of the fetal brain.These results are preliminary but promising, with theultimate goal to provide âeurooemovieâeuro of the normal gyraldevelopment. In turn, a precise knowledge of the normalfetal brain development will allow the quantification ofsubtle and early but clinically relevant deviations.Moreover, a precise understanding of the gyraldevelopment process may help to build hypotheses tounderstand the pathogenesis of several neurodevelopmentalconditions in which gyrification have been shown to bealtered (e.g. schizophrenia, autismâeuro¦). References.Rousseau, F. (2006), 'Registration-Based Approach forReconstruction of High-Resolution In Utero Fetal MR Brainimages', IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging, vol. 13,no. 9, pp. 1072-1081. Jiang, S. (2007), 'MRI of MovingSubjects Using Multislice Snapshot Images With VolumeReconstruction (SVR): Application to Fetal, Neonatal, andAdult Brain Studies', IEEE Transactions on MedicalImaging, vol. 26, no. 7, pp. 967-980. Lee, S. (1997),'Scattered data interpolation with multilevel B-splines',IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics,vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 228-244. Bach Cuadra, M. (2010),'Central and Cortical Gray Mater Segmentation of MagneticResonance Images of the Fetal Brain', ISMRM Conference.Bach Cuadra, M. (2009), 'Brain tissue segmentation offetal MR images', MICCAI.

Do stacked species distribution models reflect altitudinal diversity patterns?

The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of stacked species distribution models in predicting the alpha and gamma species diversity patterns of two important plant clades along elevation in the Andes. We modelled the distribution of the species in the Anthurium genus (53 species) and the Bromeliaceae family (89 species) using six modelling techniques. We combined all of the predictions for the same species in ensemble models based on two different criteria: the average of the rescaled predictions by all techniques and the average of the best techniques. The rescaled predictions were then reclassified into binary predictions (presence/absence). By stacking either the original predictions or binary predictions for both ensemble procedures, we obtained four different species richness models per taxa. The gamma and alpha diversity per elevation band (500 m) was also computed. To evaluate the prediction abilities for the four predictions of species richness and gamma diversity, the models were compared with the real data along an elevation gradient that was independently compiled by specialists. Finally, we also tested whether our richness models performed better than a null model of altitudinal changes of diversity based on the literature. Stacking of the ensemble prediction of the individual species models generated richness models that proved to be well correlated with the observed alpha diversity richness patterns along elevation and with the gamma diversity derived from the literature. Overall, these models tend to overpredict species richness. The use of the ensemble predictions from the species models built with different techniques seems very promising for modelling of species assemblages. Stacking of the binary models reduced the over-prediction, although more research is needed. The randomisation test proved to be a promising method for testing the performance of the stacked models, but other implementations may still be developed.

Quantitative morphometry analysis of the fetal brain using clinical MR imaging

In vivo fetal magnetic resonance imaging provides aunique approach for the study of early human braindevelopment [1]. In utero cerebral morphometry couldpotentially be used as a marker of the cerebralmaturation and help to distinguish between normal andabnormal development in ambiguous situations. However,this quantitative approach is a major challenge becauseof the movement of the fetus inside the amniotic cavity,the poor spatial resolution provided by very fast MRIsequences and the partial volume effect. Extensiveefforts are made to deal with the reconstruction ofhigh-resolution 3D fetal volumes based on severalacquisitions with lower resolution [2,3,4]. Frameworkswere developed for the segmentation of specific regionsof the fetal brain such as posterior fossa, brainstem orgerminal matrix [5,6], or for the entire brain tissue[7,8], applying the Expectation-Maximization MarkovRandom Field (EM-MRF) framework. However, many of theseprevious works focused on the young fetus (i.e. before 24weeks) and use anatomical atlas priors to segment thedifferent tissue or regions. As most of the gyraldevelopment takes place after the 24th week, acomprehensive and clinically meaningful study of thefetal brain should not dismiss the third trimester ofgestation. To cope with the rapidly changing appearanceof the developing brain, some authors proposed a dynamicatlas [8]. To our opinion, this approach however faces arisk of circularity: each brain will be analyzed /deformed using the template of its biological age,potentially biasing the effective developmental delay.Here, we expand our previous work [9] to proposepost-processing pipeline without prior that allow acomprehensive set of morphometric measurement devoted toclinical application. Data set & Methods: Prenatal MRimaging was performed with a 1-T system (GE MedicalSystems, Milwaukee) using single shot fast spin echo(ssFSE) sequences (TR 7000 ms, TE 180 ms, FOV 40 x 40 cm,slice thickness 5.4mm, in plane spatial resolution1.09mm). For each fetus, 6 axial volumes shifted by 1 mmwere acquired under motherâeuro?s sedation (about 1min pervolume). First, each volume is segmentedsemi-automatically using region-growing algorithms toextract fetal brain from surrounding maternal tissues.Inhomogeneity intensity correction [10] and linearintensity normalization are then performed. Brain tissues(CSF, GM and WM) are then segmented based on thelow-resolution volumes as presented in [9]. Ahigh-resolution image with isotropic voxel size of 1.09mm is created as proposed in [2] and using B-splines forthe scattered data interpolation [11]. Basal gangliasegmentation is performed using a levet setimplementation on the high-resolution volume [12]. Theresulting white matter image is then binarized and givenas an input in FreeSurfer software(http://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu) to providetopologically accurate three-dimensional reconstructionsof the fetal brain according to the local intensitygradient. References: [1] Guibaud, Prenatal Diagnosis29(4) (2009). [2] Rousseau, Acad. Rad. 13(9), 2006. [3]Jiang, IEEE TMI 2007. [4] Warfield IADB, MICCAI 2009. [5]Claude, IEEE Trans. Bio. Eng. 51(4) 2004. [6] Habas,MICCAI 2008. [7] Bertelsen, ISMRM 2009. [8] Habas,Neuroimage 53(2) 2010. [9] Bach Cuadra, IADB, MICCAI2009. [10] Styner, IEEE TMI 19(39 (2000). [11] Lee, IEEETrans. Visual. And Comp. Graph. 3(3), 1997. [12] BachCuadra, ISMRM 2010.

Dynamic model of the left ventricle for use in simulation of myocardial perfusion SPECT and gated SPECT

Simulation is a useful tool in cardiac SPECT to assess quantification algorithms. However, simple equation-based models are limited in their ability to simulate realistic heart motion and perfusion. We present a numerical dynamic model of the left ventricle, which allows us to simulate normal and anomalous cardiac cycles, as well as perfusion defects. Bicubic splines were fitted to a number of control points to represent endocardial and epicardial surfaces of the left ventricle. A transformation from each point on the surface to a template of activity was made to represent the myocardial perfusion. Geometry-based and patient-based simulations were performed to illustrate this model. Geometry-based simulations modeled ~1! a normal patient, ~2! a well-perfused patient with abnormal regional function, ~3! an ischaemic patient with abnormal regional function, and ~4! a patient study including tracer kinetics. Patient-based simulation consisted of a left ventricle including a realistic shape and motion obtained from a magnetic resonance study. We conclude that this model has the potential to study the influence of several physical parameters and the left ventricle contraction in myocardial perfusion SPECT and gated-SPECT studies.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Long term trends in prevalence of neural tube defects in Europe: population based study.

STUDY QUESTION: What are the long term trends in the total (live births, fetal deaths, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly) and live birth prevalence of neural tube defects (NTD) in Europe, where many countries have issued recommendations for folic acid supplementation but a policy for mandatory folic acid fortification of food does not exist? METHODS: This was a population based, observational study using data on 11 353 cases of NTD not associated with chromosomal anomalies, including 4162 cases of anencephaly and 5776 cases of spina bifida from 28 EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) registries covering approximately 12.5 million births in 19 countries between 1991 and 2011. The main outcome measures were total and live birth prevalence of NTD, as well as anencephaly and spina bifida, with time trends analysed using random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneities across registries and splines to model non-linear time trends. SUMMARY ANSWER AND LIMITATIONS: Overall, the pooled total prevalence of NTD during the study period was 9.1 per 10 000 births. Prevalence of NTD fluctuated slightly but without an obvious downward trend, with the final estimate of the pooled total prevalence of NTD in 2011 similar to that in 1991. Estimates from Poisson models that took registry heterogeneities into account showed an annual increase of 4% (prevalence ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.07) in 1995-99 and a decrease of 3% per year in 1999-2003 (0.97, 0.95 to 0.99), with stable rates thereafter. The trend patterns for anencephaly and spina bifida were similar, but neither anomaly decreased substantially over time. The live birth prevalence of NTD generally decreased, especially for anencephaly. Registration problems or other data artefacts cannot be excluded as a partial explanation of the observed trends (or lack thereof) in the prevalence of NTD. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: In the absence of mandatory fortification, the prevalence of NTD has not decreased in Europe despite longstanding recommendations aimed at promoting peri-conceptional folic acid supplementation and existence of voluntary folic acid fortification. FUNDING, COMPETING INTERESTS, DATA SHARING: The study was funded by the European Public Health Commission, EUROCAT Joint Action 2011-2013. HD and ML received support from the European Commission DG Sanco during the conduct of this study. No additional data available.

3D Surface Modeling From Point Clouds

The goal of this thesis is to implement software for creating 3D models from point clouds. Point clouds are acquired with stereo cameras, monocular systems or laser scanners. The created 3D models are triangular models or NURBS (Non-Uniform Rational B-Splines) models. Triangular models are constructed from selected areas from the point clouds and resulted triangular models are translated into a set of quads. The quads are further translated into an estimated grid structure and used for NURBS surface approximation. Finally, we have a set of NURBS surfaces which represent the whole model. The problem wasn’t so easy to solve. The selected triangular surface reconstruction algorithm did not deal well with noise in point clouds. To handle this problem, a clustering method is introduced for simplificating the model and removing noise. As we had better results with the smaller point clouds produced by clustering, we used points in clusters to better estimate the grids for NURBS models. The overall results were good when the point cloud did not have much noise. The point clouds with small amount of error had good results as the triangular model was solid. NURBS surface reconstruction performed well on solid models.

Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia

Aplicação do diagrama de Taylor para avaliação de interpoladores espaciais em atributos de solo em cultivo com eucalipto

As diversas técnicas de interpolação espacial adotadas oferecem desempenhos diferentes, de acordo com as características dos dados iniciais, e é muito comum encontrar avaliadores contando somente com R² (coeficiente de determinação múltiplo) e erro residual. Neste trabalho, objetivou-se aplicar o Diagrama de Taylor para analisar 15 métodos diferentes de interpolação espacial, em área com cultivo comercial de eucalipto, para comparação e escolha do melhor método de interpolação de um conjunto de valores da fração granulométrica do solo (argila), na profundidade de 0-0,20 m do solo. De acordo com os resultados, considera-se muito satisfatória a ferramenta do Diagrama de Taylor, pois, além de definir graficamente os melhores métodos de interpolação, essa ferramenta permite fazer escolhas entre eles, dentro de um conjunto menor e mais definido de informações; logo, optou-se pelo método Splines em detrimento da krigagem modelo linear. As estatísticas desses dois métodos estão muito próximas, com pequenas variações, estando o desvio-padrão do Splines mais próximo dos dados observados; logo, é o melhor método de interpolação para argila, na profundidade de 0-0,20 m do solo.

A time series analysis of meteorological factors and hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease in the Northern district of Guizhou Province, China

Findings on the effects of weather on health, especially the effects of ambient temperature on overall morbidity, remain inconsistent. We conducted a time series study to examine the acute effects of meteorological factors (mainly air temperature) on daily hospital outpatient admissions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Zunyi City, China, from January 1, 2007 to November 30, 2009. We used the generalized additive model with penalized splines to analyze hospital outpatient admissions, climatic parameters, and covariate data. Results show that, in Zunyi, air temperature was associated with hospital outpatient admission for CVD. When air temperature was less than 10°C, hospital outpatient admissions for CVD increased 1.07-fold with each increase of 1°C, and when air temperature was more than 10°C, an increase in air temperature by 1°C was associated with a 0.99-fold decrease in hospital outpatient admissions for CVD over the previous year. Our analyses provided statistically significant evidence that in China meteorological factors have adverse effects on the health of the general population. Further research with consistent methodology is needed to clarify the magnitude of these effects and to show which populations and individuals are vulnerable.

The relationship between body mass index and breast cancer recurrence/progression and breast cancer-specific death

The aim of this study was to describe the nonlinear association between body mass index (BMI) and breast cancer outcomes and to determine whether BMI improves prediction of outcomes. A cohort of906 breast cancer patients diagnosed at Henry Ford Health System, Detroit (1985-1990) were studied. The median follow-up was 10 years. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model breast cancer recurrence/progression and breast cancer-specific death. Restricted cubic splines were used to model nonlinear effects. Receiver operator characteristic areas under the curves (ROC AUC) were used to evaluate prediction. BMI was nonlinearly associated with recurrence/progression and death (p= 0.0230 and 0.0101). Probability of outcomes increased with increase or decrease ofBMI away from 25. BMI splines were suggestive of improved prediction of death. The ROC AUCs for nested models with and without BMI were 0.8424 and 0.8331 (p= 0.08). I f causally associated, modifying patients BMI towards 25 may improve outcomes.

THE PREVALENCE AND PREDICTION OF PULMONARY FIBROSIS IN AN

This thesis describes an ancillary project to the Early Diagnosis of Mesothelioma and Lung Cancer in Prior Asbestos Workers study and was conducted to determine the effects of asbestos exposure, pulmonary function and cigarette smoking in the prediction of pulmonary fibrosis. 613 workers who were occupationally exposed to asbestos for an average of 25.9 (SD=14.69) years were sampled from Sarnia, Ontario. A structured questionnaire was administered during a face-to-face interview along with a low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) of the thorax. Of them, 65 workers (10.7%, 95%CI 8.12—12.24) had LDCT-detected pulmonary fibrosis. The model predicting fibrosis included the variables age, smoking (dichotomized), post FVC % splines and post- FEV1% splines. This model had a receiver operator characteristic area under the curve of 0.738. The calibration of the model was evaluated with R statistical program and the bootstrap optimism-corrected calibration slope was 0.692. Thus, our model demonstrated moderate predictive performance.

The relationship between socioeconomic status, schools and bone health among adolescent females in Southern Ontario

We studied the association between socioeconomic status (SES), school attended and bone health measured by bone speed of sound (SOS) among adolescent females in Canada. 412 participants from six randomly selected schools in Southern Ontario were examined. Bone SOS was measured by quantitative ultrasound. Participant’s school and aggregate area-based census-derived (AABCD) SES were evaluated as predictors. Mean participant age was 15.7 (SD 1.0) years. Average median family income was $68,162 (SD $19,366). Median family income was non-linearly associated with bone SOS and restricted cubic splines described the relationship. Univariate regression, accounting for clustering of participants in schools, revealed a significant non-linear association between AABCD-median family income and non-dominant tibial SOS (LRT p = 0.031). Multivariable regression revealed school to have a significant impact (LRT p = 0.0001). High schools had a strong influence on the bone health of female students and this effect overrode the effect of SES.