Previsão de cargas elétricas através de uma Rede Neural Híbrida Back-ART Fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Sistema inteligente para previsão de carga multinodal em sistemas elétricos de potência

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de carga multinodal usando a rede neural ART-ARTMAP fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Desenvolvimento de redes neurais para previsão de cargas elétricas de sistemas de energia elétrica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelos para previsão de carga a curto prazo através de redes neurais artificiais com treinamento baseado na teoria da informação

O conhecimento prévio do valor da carga é de extrema importância para o planejamento e operação dos sistemas de energia elétrica. Este trabalho apresenta os resultados de um estudo investigativo da aplicação de Redes Neurais Artificiais do tipo Perceptron Multicamadas com treinamento baseado na Teoria da Informação para o problema de Previsão de Carga a curto prazo. A aprendizagem baseada na Teoria da Informação se concentra na utilização da quantidade de informação (Entropia) para treinamento de uma rede neural artificial. Dois modelos previsores são apresentados sendo que os mesmos foram desenvolvidos a partir de dados reais fornecidos por uma concessionária de energia. Para comparação e verificação da eficiência dos modelos propostos um terceiro modelo foi também desenvolvido utilizando uma rede neural com treinamento baseado no critério clássico do erro médio quadrático. Os resultados alcançados mostraram a eficiência dos sistemas propostos, que obtiveram melhores resultados de previsão quando comparados ao sistema de previsão baseado na rede treinada pelo critério do MSE e aos sistemas previsores já apresentados na literatura.

Metodologias de inteligência computacional aplicadas ao problema de previsão de carga a curto prazo

Diversas atividades de planejamento e operação em sistemas de energia elétrica dependem do conhecimento antecipado e preciso da demanda de carga elétrica. Por este motivo, concessionárias de geração e distribuição de energia elétrica cada vez mais fazem uso de tecnologias de previsão de carga. Essas previsões podem ter um horizonte de curtíssimo, curto, médio ou longo prazo. Inúmeros métodos estatísticos vêm sendo utilizados para o problema de previsão. Todos estes métodos trabalham bem em condições normais, entretanto deixam a desejar em situações onde ocorrem mudanças inesperadas nos parâmetros do ambiente. Atualmente, técnicas baseadas em Inteligência Computacional vêm sendo apresentadas na literatura com resultados satisfatórios para o problema de previsão de carga. Considerando então a importância da previsão da carga elétrica para os sistemas de energia elétrica, neste trabalho, uma nova abordagem para o problema de previsão de carga via redes neurais Auto-Associativas e algoritmos genéticos é avaliada. Três modelos de previsão baseados em Inteligência Computacional são também apresentados tendo seus desempenhos avaliados e comparados com o sistema proposto. Com os resultados alcançados, pôde-se verificar que o modelo proposto se mostrou satisfatório para o problema de previsão, reforçando assim a aplicabilidade de metodologias de inteligência computacional para o problema de previsão de cargas.

Previsão de demanda de cargas elétricas por seleção de variáveis stepwise e redes neurais artificiais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Desenvolvimento de uma rede neuro-fuzzy para a previsão da carga

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Minimizing residential distribution system operating costs through intelligently scheduled plug-in hybrid electric vehicle charging

Rising fuel prices and environmental concerns are threatening the stability of current electrical grid systems. These factors are pushing the automobile industry towards more effcient, hybrid vehicles. Current trends show petroleum is being edged out in favor of electricity as the main vehicular motive force. The proposed methods create an optimized charging control schedule for all participating Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles in a distribution grid. The optimization will minimize daily operating costs, reduce system losses, and improve power quality. This requires participation from Vehicle-to-Grid capable vehicles, load forecasting, and Locational Marginal Pricing market predictions. Vehicles equipped with bidirectional chargers further improve the optimization results by lowering peak demand and improving power quality.

An improved novelty criterion for resource allocating networks

Online model order complexity estimation remains one of the key problems in neural network research. The problem is further exacerbated in situations where the underlying system generator is non-stationary. In this paper, we introduce a novelty criterion for resource allocating networks (RANs) which is capable of being applied to both stationary and slowly varying non-stationary problems. The deficiencies of existing novelty criteria are discussed and the relative performances are demonstrated on two real-world problems : electricity load forecasting and exchange rate prediction.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Theta burst stimulation improves overt visual search in spatial neglect independently of attentional load

Visual neglect is considerably exacerbated by increases in visual attentional load. These detrimental effects of attentional load are hypothesised to be dependent on an interplay between dysfunctional inter-hemispheric inhibitory dynamics and load-related modulation of activity in cortical areas such as the posterior parietal cortex (PPC). Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation (cTBS) over the contralesional PPC reduces neglect severity. It is unknown, however, whether such positive effects also operate in the presence of the detrimental effects of heightened attentional load. Here, we examined the effects of cTBS on neglect severity in overt visual search (i.e., with eye movements), as a function of high and low visual attentional load conditions. Performance was assessed on the basis of target detection rates and eye movements, in a computerised visual search task and in two paper-pencil tasks. cTBS significantly ameliorated target detection performance, independently of attentional load. These ameliorative effects were significantly larger in the high than the low load condition, thereby equating target detection across both conditions. Eye movement analyses revealed that the improvements were mediated by a redeployment of visual fixations to the contralesional visual field. These findings represent a substantive advance, because cTBS led to an unprecedented amelioration of overt search efficiency that was independent of visual attentional load.

Distraction by task-irrelevant stimuli: the effects of endogenous spatial attention and visual working memory load

Salient stimuli, like sudden changes in the environment or emotional stimuli, generate a priority signal that captures attention even if they are task-irrelevant. However, to achieve goal-driven behavior, we need to ignore them and to avoid being distracted. It is generally agreed that top-down factors can help us to filter out distractors. A fundamental question is how and at which stage of processing the rejection of distractors is achieved. Two circumstances under which the allocation of attention to distractors is supposed to be prevented are represented by the case in which distractors occur at an unattended location (as determined by the deployment of endogenous spatial attention) and when the amount of visual working memory resources is reduced by an ongoing task. The present thesis is focused on the impact of these factors on three sources of distraction, namely auditory and visual onsets (Experiments 1 and 2, respectively) and pleasant scenes (Experiment 3). In the first two studies we recorded neural correlates of distractor processing (i.e., Event-Related Potentials), whereas in the last study we used interference effects on behavior (i.e., a slowing down of response times on a simultaneous task) to index distraction. Endogenous spatial attention reduced distraction by auditory stimuli and eliminated distraction by visual onsets. Differently, visual working memory load only affected the processing of visual onsets. Emotional interference persisted even when scenes occurred always at unattended locations and when visual working memory was loaded. Altogether, these findings indicate that the ability to detect the location of salient task-irrelevant sounds and identify the affective significance of natural scenes is preserved even when the amount of visual working memory resources is reduced by an ongoing task and when endogenous attention is elsewhere directed. However, these results also indicate that the processing of auditory and visual distractors is not entirely automatic.