Caracterização clínica epidemiológica e geográfica da hanseníase em município hiperendêmico do Brasil

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Caracterização clínica epidemiológica e geográfica da hanseníase em município hiperendêmico do Brasil

Pós-graduação em Saúde Coletiva - FMB

Bayesian Geostatistical Design

This paper describes the use of model-based geostatistics for choosing the optimal set of sampling locations, collectively called the design, for a geostatistical analysis. Two types of design situations are considered. These are retrospective design, which concerns the addition of sampling locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing optimal positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model parameter values are unknown. The results show that in this situation a wide range of inter-point distances should be included in the design, and the widely used regular design is therefore not the optimal choice.

Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model’s potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.

Brain electric microstates and momentary conscious mind states as building blocks of spontaneous thinking: I. Visual imagery and abstract thoughts

Prompted reports of recall of spontaneous, conscious experiences were collected in a no-input, no-task, no-response paradigm (30 random prompts to each of 13 healthy volunteers). The mentation reports were classified into visual imagery and abstract thought. Spontaneous 19-channel brain electric activity (EEG) was continuously recorded, viewed as series of momentary spatial distributions (maps) of the brain electric field and segmented into microstates, i.e. into time segments characterized by quasi-stable landscapes of potential distribution maps which showed varying durations in the sub-second range. Microstate segmentation used a data-driven strategy. Different microstates, i.e. different brain electric landscapes must have been generated by activity of different neural assemblies and therefore are hypothesized to constitute different functions. The two types of reported experiences were associated with significantly different microstates (mean duration 121 ms) immediately preceding the prompts; these microstates showed, across subjects, for abstract thought (compared to visual imagery) a shift of the electric gravity center to the left and a clockwise rotation of the field axis. Contrariwise, the microstates 2 s before the prompt did not differ between the two types of experiences. The results support the hypothesis that different microstates of the brain as recognized in its electric field implement different conscious, reportable mind states, i.e. different classes (types) of thoughts (mentations); thus, the microstates might be candidates for the `atoms of thought'.

An Integral View of Fast Shocks Around Supernova 1006

Supernova remnants are among the most spectacular examples of astrophysical pistons in our cosmic neighborhood. The gas expelled by the supernova explosion is launched with velocities ~1000 kilometers per second into the ambient, tenuous interstellar medium, producing shocks that excite hydrogen lines. We have used an optical integral-field spectrograph to obtain high-resolution spatial-spectral maps that allow us to study in detail the shocks in the northwestern rim of supernova 1006. The two-component Hα line is detected at 133 sky locations. Variations in the broad line widths and the broad-to-narrow line intensity ratios across tens of atomic mean free paths suggest the presence of suprathermal protons, the potential seed particles for generating high-energy cosmic rays.

Effects of different soil management practices on soil mechanic resistance and seed depth placement in a maize crop in Alentejo, Portugal Mediterranean region.

No tillage, minimum tillage and conventional tillage practices are commonly used in maize crops in Alentejo, affecting soil physic conditions and determining seeders performance. Seeders distribution can be evaluated in the longitudinal and vertical planes. Vertical plane is specified by seeding depth (Karayel et al., 2008). If, in one hand seeding depth uniformity is a goal for all crop establishment , in the other hand, seeders furrow openers depth control is never constant depending on soil conditions. Seed depth uniformity affects crop emergence, Liu et al. (2004) showed an higher correlation between crop productivity and emergence uniformity than with longitudinal plants distribution. Neto et al. (2007) evaluating seed depth placement by measuring maize mesocotyl length under no tillage conditions in 38 farms concluded that 20% of coefficient of variation suggests the need of improvement seeders depth control mechanisms. The objective of this study was to evaluate casual relationships and create spatial variability maps between soil mechanic resistance and vertical distribution under three different soil practices to improve seed depth uniformity.

Amphibian Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in Eastern Cuba Identified by Species Distribution Modeling

The high rate of amphibian endemism and the severe habitat modification in the Caribbean islands make them an ideal place to test if the current protected areas network might protect this group. In this study, we model distribution and map species richness of the 40 amphibian species from eastern Cuba with the objectives of identify hotspots, detect gaps in species representation in protected areas, and select additional areas to fill these gaps. We used two modeling methods, Maxent and Habitat Suitability Models, to reach a consensus distribution map for each species, then calculate species richness by combining specific models and finally performed gap analyses for species and hotspots. Our results showed that the models were robust enough to predict species distributions and that most of the amphibian hotspots were represented in reserves, but 50 percent of the species were incompletely covered and Eleutherodactylus rivularis was totally uncovered by the protected areas. We identified 1441 additional km2 (9.9% of the study area) that could be added to the current protected areas, allowing the representation of every species and all hotspots. Our results are relevant for the conservation planning in other Caribbean islands, since studies like this could contribute to fill the gaps in the existing protected areas and to design a future network. Both cases would benefit from modeling amphibian species distribution using available data, even if they are incomplete, rather than relying only in the protection of known or suspected hotspots.

A software tool for accurate assessment of costs and CO2 emissions in wood transport using OpenStreetMap©

Costs and environmental impacts are key elements in forest logistics and they must be integrated in forest decision-making. The evaluation of transportation fuel costs and carbon emissions depend on spatial and non-spatial data but in many cases the former type of data are dicult to obtain. On the other hand, the availability of software tools to evaluate transportation fuel consumption as well as costs and emissions of carbon dioxide is limited. We developed a software tool that combines two empirically validated models of truck transportation using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data and an open spatial data tool, specically OpenStreetMap©. The tool generates tabular data and spatial outputs (maps) with information regarding fuel consumption, cost and CO2 emissions for four types of trucks. It also generates maps of the distribution of transport performance indicators (relation between beeline and real road distances). These outputs can be easily included in forest decision-making support systems. Finally, in this work we applied the tool in a particular case of forest logistics in north-eastern Portugal

Factores determinantes de la variabilidad espacial de anchoveta peruana (Engraulis ringens) en el Pacífico Sudoriental

Los modelos de nicho ecológico permiten estudiar el efecto del ambiente sobre la distribución de las especies, relacionando datos de su distribución con información ambiental. El objetivo del presente estudio fue estimar el nicho ecológico y describir la variabilidad en la distribución espacial de la anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) mediante el uso de modelos estadísticos de nicho ecológico. Se trabajó con dos enfoques de análisis: por stocks (norte, centro y sur) en el Pacífico Sudoriental (PSO) y por estadios de desarrollo (pre-reclutas, reclutas y adultos) en la costa peruana. El modelo de nicho ecológico utilizó modelos aditivos generalizados, estimaciones georeferenciadas de presencia y ausencia de anchoveta e información de cuatro variables ambientales (temperatura superficial del mar, salinidad superficial del mar, concentración de clorofila a superficial y la profundidad de la oxiclina) entre los a˜nos 1985 y 2008. Se encontró que no existen diferencias en los nichos ecológicos de los tres stocks de anchoveta siendo los modelos que utilizaron la información de la anchoveta en todo el PSO los que lograron modelar el nicho de manera correcta. Respecto al análisis por estadios, se evidenció que cada estadio de desarrollo tiene distintas tolerancias a las variables ambientales consideradas en este trabajo, siendo los nichos de estadios menos desarrollados los que estuvieron incluidos dentro de los estadios más desarrollados. Se recomienda realizar estudios separados para cada estadio de desarrollo, lo cual permita comprender mejor las relaciones ecológicas encontradas en los resultados del nicho ecológico. Además se recomienda realizar simulaciones con modelos de nicho que incluyan más variables ambientales, las cuales puedan mejorar los mapas de distribución espacial de la anchoveta para los dos enfoques de análisis.

Shell preservation of Limacina inflata in surface sediments of the Central and South Atlantic

Over 300 surface sediment samples from the Central and South Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea were investigated for the preservation state of the aragonitic test of Limacina inflata. Results are displayed in spatial distribution maps and are plotted against cross-sections of vertical water mass configurations, illustrating the relationship between preservation state, saturation state of the overlying waters, and overall water mass distribution. The microscopic investigation of L. inflata (adults) yielded the Limacina dissolution index (LDX), and revealed three regional dissolution patterns. In the western Atlantic Ocean, sedimentary preservation states correspond to saturation states in the overlying waters. Poor preservation is found within intermediate water masses of southern origin (i.e. Antarctic intermediate water (AAIW), upper circumpolar water (UCDW)), which are distinctly aragonite-corrosive, whereas good preservation is observed within the surface waters above and within the upper North Atlantic deep water (UNADW) beneath the AAIW. In the eastern Atlantic Ocean, in particular along the African continental margin, the LDX fails in most cases (i.e. less than 10 tests of L. inflata per sample were found). This is most probably due to extensive "metabolic" aragonite dissolution at the sediment-water interface combined with a reduced abundance of L. inflata in the surface waters. In the Caribbean Sea, a more complex preservation pattern is observed because of the interaction between different water masses, which invade the Caribbean basins through several channels, and varying input of bank-derived fine aragonite and magnesian calcite material. The solubility of aragonite increases with increasing pressure, but aragonite dissolution in the sediments does not simply increase with water depth. Worse preservation is found in intermediate water depths following an S-shaped curve. As a result, two aragonite lysoclines are observed, one above the other. In four depth transects, we show that the western Atlantic and Caribbean LDX records resemble surficial calcium carbonate data and delta13C and carbonate ion concentration profiles in the water column. Moreover, preservation of L. inflata within AAIW and UCDW improves significantly to the north, whereas carbonate corrosiveness diminishes due to increased mixing of AAIW and UNADW. The close relationship between LDX values and aragonite contents in the sediments shows much promise for the quantification of the aragonite loss under the influence of different water masses. LDX failure and uncertainties may be attributed to (1) aragonite dissolution due to bottom water corrosiveness, (2) aragonite dissolution due to additional CO2 release into the bottom water by the degradation of organic matter based on an enhanced supply of organic matter into the sediment, (3) variations in the distribution of L. inflata and hence a lack of supply into the sediment, (4) dilution of the sediments and hence a lack of tests of L. inflata, or (5) redeposition of sediment particles.

Multi-temporal monitoring of wetland water levels in the Florida Everglades using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) techniques can successfully detect phase variations related to the water level changes in wetlands and produce spatially detailed high-resolution maps of water level changes. Despite the vast details, the usefulness of the wetland InSAR observations is rather limited, because hydrologists and water resources managers need information on absolute water level values and not on relative water level changes. We present an InSAR technique called Small Temporal Baseline Subset (STBAS) for monitoring absolute water level time series using radar interferograms acquired successively over wetlands. The method uses stage (water level) observation for calibrating the relative InSAR observations and tying them to the stage's vertical datum. We tested the STBAS technique with two-year long Radarsat-1 data acquired during 2006–2008 over the Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA1) in the Everglades wetlands, south Florida (USA). The InSAR-derived water level data were calibrated using 13 stage stations located in the study area to generate 28 successive high spatial resolution maps (50 m pixel resolution) of absolute water levels. We evaluate the quality of the STBAS technique using a root mean square error (RMSE) criterion of the difference between InSAR observations and stage measurements. The average RMSE is 6.6 cm, which provides an uncertainty estimation of the STBAS technique to monitor absolute water levels. About half of the uncertainties are attributed to the accuracy of the InSAR technique to detect relative water levels. The other half reflects uncertainties derived from tying the relative levels to the stage stations' datum.

Compréhension des différences de distribution spatiale des anchois et de leurs œufs

La campagne PELGAS participe à la gestion du stock d’anchois du Golfe de Gascogne, en réalisant une évaluation directe à la mer de la biomasse d’anchois. Pour déterminer la biomasse totale, des appareils acoustiques envoyant des ultra-sons dans l’eau pour détecter les bancs de poisson sont utilisés. Ensuite des pêches sont effectuées sur les zones détectées pour déterminer la composition des bancs (espèces, poids, longueurs…). En parallèle, les oeufs d’anchois sont comptés. A partir des données récoltées de 2000 à 2015, j’ai pu réaliser des cartes de distribution spatiale des anchois et de leurs oeufs, ainsi que des analyses statistiques afin de comprendre les différences de distribution entre les deux. Il s’avère que les oeufs sont plus au large que les anchois, ce qui est dû à une question de poids moyen et de fécondité. Les anchois les plus gros seraient plus féconds et se localisent plus au large, d’où la répartition des oeufs plus éloignées des côtes que la biomasse totale d’anchois. La fécondité et le poids des anchois font parties des paramètres qui ont une influence sur la distribution des oeufs.

Prediction of soil orders with high spatial resolution: response of different classifiers to sampling density

The objective of this work was to evaluate sampling density on the prediction accuracy of soil orders, with high spatial resolution, in a viticultural zone of Serra Gaúcha, Southern Brazil. A digital elevation model (DEM), a cartographic base, a conventional soil map, and the Idrisi software were used. Seven predictor variables were calculated and read along with soil classes in randomly distributed points, with sampling densities of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 points per hectare. Data were used to train a decision tree (Gini) and three artificial neural networks: adaptive resonance theory, fuzzy ARTMap; self‑organizing map, SOM; and multi‑layer perceptron, MLP. Estimated maps were compared with the conventional soil map to calculate omission and commission errors, overall accuracy, and quantity and allocation disagreement. The decision tree was less sensitive to sampling density and had the highest accuracy and consistence. The SOM was the less sensitive and most consistent network. The MLP had a critical minimum and showed high inconsistency, whereas fuzzy ARTMap was more sensitive and less accurate. Results indicate that sampling densities used in conventional soil surveys can serve as a reference to predict soil orders in Serra Gaúcha.

Disaggregation of polygons of surficial geology and soil maps using spatial modelling and legacy data

Examples from the Murray-Darling basin in Australia are used to illustrate different methods of disaggregation of reconnaissance-scale maps. One approach for disaggregation revolves around the de-convolution of the soil-landscape paradigm elaborated during a soil survey. The descriptions of soil ma units and block diagrams in a soil survey report detail soil-landscape relationships or soil toposequences that can be used to disaggregate map units into component landscape elements. Toposequences can be visualised on a computer by combining soil maps with digital elevation data. Expert knowledge or statistics can be used to implement the disaggregation. Use of a restructuring element and k-means clustering are illustrated. Another approach to disaggregation uses training areas to develop rules to extrapolate detailed mapping into other, larger areas where detailed mapping is unavailable. A two-level decision tree example is presented. At one level, the decision tree method is used to capture mapping rules from the training area; at another level, it is used to define the domain over which those rules can be extrapolated. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.