The Role of supply constraints in multiplier analysis

Multiplier analysis based upon the information contained in Leontief's inverse is undoubtedly part of the core of the input-output methodology and numerous applications an extensions have been developed that exploit its informational content. Nonetheless there are some implicit theoretical assumptions whose implications have perhaps not been fully assessed. This is the case of the 'excess capacity' assumption. Because of this assumption resources are available as needed to adjust production to new equilibrium states. In real world applications, however, new resources are scarce and costly. Supply constraints kick in and hence resource allocation needs to take them into account to really assess the effect of government policies. Using a closed general equilibrium model that incorporates supply constraints, we perform some simple numerical exercises and proceed to derive a 'constrained' multiplier matrix that can be compared with the standard 'unrestricted' multiplier matrix. Results show that the effectiveness of expenditure policies hinges critically on whether or not supply constraints are considered.

Continuity of Supply of the Home Oxygen Service in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (PDF 96 KB)

Arrangements to support continuity of oxygen supply to patients using the NHS home oxygen service in the four countries within the United Kingdom

From the vendor in the hemp shop to the dealer in the alleyway? A comparison of the sources of supply of cannabis in a time of 'de-normalising' cannabis use.

Objectives: After several years of increasing 'normalisation' of cannabis use in Switzerland at the beginning of the new millennium, a reversed tendency, marked among others by a more stringent law-enforcement, set in. The presentation examines the question of where adolescents and young adults obtained cannabis, within the context of this societal change. In addition, it compares the sources of supply for cannabis with those found in studies of other European countries. Methods: Analyses are based on data from the Swiss Cannabis Monitoring Study. As part of this longitudinal, representative population survey, more than 5000 adolescents and young adults were interviewed by telephone on the topic of cannabis. Within the total sample, 593 (2004) or 554 (2007) respectively, current cannabis users replied to the questions on sources of supply. Changes in law-enforcement and societal climate concerning cannabis are assessed based on relevant literature, media reports and parliamentary discussions. Results: Whereas 22% of cannabis users stated in 2004 that they bought their cannabis from vendors in hemp shops, this proportion drastically decreased to 6% three years later. At the same time, cannabis was obtained increasingly from friends, while the proportion of users who purchased cannabis from dealers in the alleyway, more than doubled from 6% (2004) to 13% (2007). It was male cannabis users, and in particular, young adult and frequent users, who have moved into the alleyways. Generally, users who buy cannabis in the alleyway show more cannabis-related problems than those who mainly name other sources of supply, even when adjusted for sex, age and frequency of cannabis use. Discussion: Possible consequences of these changes in cannabis supply, like the risk of merging a previously cannabis-only market with other 'harder' drugs markets, are discussed.

Monte Carlo simulations of metasomatic enrichment in the lithosphere and implications for the source of alkaline basalts

One hypothesis for the origin of alkaline lavas erupted on oceanic islands and in intracontinental settings is that they represent the melts of amphibole-rich veins in the lithosphere (or melts of their dehydrated equivalents if metasomatized lithosphere is recycled into the convecting mantle). Amphibole-rich veins are interpreted as cumulates produced by crystallization of low-degree melts of the underlying asthenosphere as they ascend through the lithosphere. We present the results of trace-element modelling of the formation and melting of veins formed in this way with the goal of testing this hypothesis and for predicting how variability in the formation and subsequent melting of such cumulates (and adjacent cryptically and modally metasomatized lithospheric peridotite) would be manifested in magmas generated by such a process. Because the high-pressure phase equilibria of hydrous near-solidus melts of garnet lherzolite are poorly constrained and given the likely high variability of the hypothesized accumulation and remelting processes, we used Monte Carlo techniques to estimate how uncertainties in the model parameters (e.g. the compositions of the asthenospheric sources, their trace-element contents, and their degree of melting; the modal proportions of crystallizing phases, including accessory phases, as the asthenospheric partial melts ascend and crystallize in the lithosphere; the amount of metasomatism of the peridotitic country rock; the degree of melting of the cumulates and the amount of melt derived from the metasomatized country rock) propagate through the process and manifest themselves as variability in the trace-element contents and radiogenic isotopic ratios of model vein compositions and erupted alkaline magma compositions. We then compare the results of the models with amphibole observed in lithospheric veins and with oceanic and continental alkaline magmas. While the trace-element patterns of the near-solidus peridotite melts, the initial anhydrous cumulate assemblage (clinopyroxene +/- garnet +/- olivine +/- orthopyroxene), and the modelled coexisting liquids do not match the patterns observed in alkaline lavas, our calculations show that with further crystallization and the appearance of amphibole (and accessory minerals such as rutile, ilmenite, apatite, etc.) the calculated cumulate assemblages have trace-element patterns that closely match those observed in the veins and lavas. These calculated hydrous cumulate assemblages are highly enriched in incompatible trace elements and share many similarities with the trace-element patterns of alkaline basalts observed in oceanic or continental setting such as positive Nb/La, negative Ce/Pb, and similiar slopes of the rare earth elements. By varying the proportions of trapped liquid and thus simulating the cryptic and modal metasomatism observed in peridotite that surrounds these veins, we can model the variations in Ba/Nb, Ce/Pb, and Nb/U ratios that are observed in alkaline basalts. If the isotopic compositions of the initial low-degree peridotite melts are similar to the range observed in mid-ocean ridge basalt, our model calculations produce cumulates that would have isotopic compositions similar to those observed in most alkaline ocean island basalt (OIB) and continental magmas after similar to 0 center dot 15 Gyr. However, to produce alkaline basalts with HIMU isotopic compositions requires much longer residence times (i.e. 1-2 Gyr), consistent with subduction and recycling of metasomatized lithosphere through the mantle. such as a heterogeneous asthenosphere. These modelling results support the interpretation proposed by various researchers that amphibole-bearing veins represent cumulates formed during the differentiation of a volatile-bearing low-degree peridotite melt and that these cumulates are significant components of the sources of alkaline OIB and continental magmas. The results of the forward models provide the potential for detailed tests of this class of hypotheses for the origin of alkaline magmas worldwide and for interpreting major and minor aspects of the geochemical variability of these magmas.

Brazilian flora extracts as source of novel antileishmanial and antifungal compounds

Natural products have long been providing important drug leads for infectious diseases. Leishmaniasis is a protozoan parasitic disease found mainly in developing countries, and it has toxic therapies with few alternatives. Fungal infections have been the main cause of death in immunocompromised patients and new drugs are urgently needed. In this work, a total of 16 plant species belonging to 11 families, selected on an ethnopharmacological basis, were analyzed in vitro against Leishmania (L.) chagasi, Leishmania (L.) amazonensis, Candida krusei, and C. parapsilosis. Of these plant species, seven showed antifungal activity against C. krusei, five showed antileishmanial activity against L. chagasi and four against L. amazonensis, among them species of genus Plectranthus. Our findings confirm the traditional therapeutic use of these plants in the treatment of infectious and inflammatory disorders and also offer insights into the isolation of active and novel drug prototypes, especially those used against neglected diseases as Leishmaniasis.

Use of the internet as a source of health information by Spanish adolescents

The Internet is a fundamental part of the daily life of adolescents, they consider it as a safe and confidential source of information on health matters. The aims is to describe the experience of Spanish adolescents searching for health information on the Internet. Methods A cross-sectional study of 811 school-age adolescents in Granada was carried out. An adapted and piloted questionnaire was used which was controlled by trained personnel. Sociodemographic and health variables were included together with those concerning the conditions governing access to and use of information and communication technologies (ICT). Results 811 adolescents were surveyed (99.38% response rate), mean age was 17 years old. Of these, 88% used the Internet; 57.5% used it on a daily or weekly basis and 38.7% used it occasionally. Nearly half the sample group (55.7%) stated that they used the Internet to search for health-related information. The main problems reported in the search for e-health were the ignorance of good web pages (54.8%) and the lack of confidence or search skills (23.2%). Conclusions In conclusion, it seems plausible to claim that websites designed and managed by health services should have a predominant position among interventions specifically addressed to young people.

Is hospital discharge administrative data an appropriate source of information for cancer registries purposes? Some insights from four Spanish registries

Background. The use of hospital discharge administrative data (HDAD) has been recommended for automating, improving, even substituting, population-based cancer registries. The frequency of false positive and false negative cases recommends local validation. Methods. The aim of this study was to detect newly diagnosed, false positive and false negative cases of cancer from hospital discharge claims, using four Spanish population-based cancer registries as the gold standard. Prostate cancer was used as a case study. Results. A total of 2286 incident cases of prostate cancer registered in 2000 were used for validation. In the most sensitive algorithm (that using five diagnostic codes), estimates for Sensitivity ranged from 14.5% (CI95% 10.3-19.6) to 45.7% (CI95% 41.4-50.1). In the most predictive algorithm (that using five diagnostic and five surgical codes) Positive Predictive Value estimates ranged from 55.9% (CI95% 42.4-68.8) to 74.3% (CI95% 67.0-80.6). The most frequent reason for false positive cases was the number of prevalent cases inadequately considered as newly diagnosed cancers, ranging from 61.1% to 82.3% of false positive cases. The most frequent reason for false negative cases was related to the number of cases not attended in hospital settings. In this case, figures ranged from 34.4% to 69.7% of false negative cases, in the most predictive algorithm. Conclusions. HDAD might be a helpful tool for cancer registries to reach their goals. The findings suggest that, for automating cancer registries, algorithms combining diagnoses and procedures are the best option. However, for cancer surveillance purposes, in those cancers like prostate cancer in which care is not only hospital-based, combining inpatient and outpatient information will be required.

Marine Pseudomonas putida: a potential source of antimicrobial substances against antibiotic-resistant bacteria

Bacteria isolated from marine sponges found off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were screened for the production of antimicrobial substances. We report a new Pseudomonas putida strain (designated P. putida Mm3) isolated from the sponge Mycale microsigmatosa that produces a powerful antimicrobial substance active against multidrug-resistant bacteria. P. putida Mm3 was identified on the basis of 16S rRNA gene sequencing and phenotypic tests. Molecular typing for Mm3 was performed by RAPD-PCR and comparison of the results to other Pseudomonas strains. Our results contribute to the search for new antimicrobial agents, an important strategy for developing alternative therapies to treat infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria.

Impact of thermal proofing of a church on its indoor air-quality - The combustion of candles and incense as a source of pollution

Some years ago, a parish in Geneva decided to reduce heating costs by insulating its church to make it more energy efficient. Three years after the last renovations, it was observed that the internal surfaces of the naves had already become dusty compared with the customary frequency of 10-12 years. Dust even deposited on various surfaces during religious services. Our investigation showed that nearly all the dust found inside the church may in fact be soot from incense and candle combustion. Incense appears to be a significant source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. With a mechanical ventilation system and petrol lamps resembling candles the problem can be resolved.

Fungal co-culture as a new source of antifungal metabolites

Background: Over the last two decades, mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CVD) declined by about 30% in the European Union (EU). Design: We analyzed trends in CHD (X ICD codes: I20-I25) and CVD (X ICD codes: I60-I69) mortality in young adults (age 35-44 years) in the EU as a whole and in 12 selected European countries, over the period 1980-2007. Methods: Data were derived from the World Health Organization mortality database. With joinpoint regression analysis, we identified significant changes in trends and estimated average annual percent changes (AAPC). Results: CHD mortality rates at ages 35-44 years have decreased in both sexes since the 1980s for most countries, except for Russia (130/100,000 men and 24/100,000 women, in 2005-7). The lowest rates (around 9/100,000 men, 2/100,000 women) were in France, Italy and Sweden. In men, the steepest declines in mortality were in the Czech Republic (AAPC = -6.1%), the Netherlands (-5.2%), Poland (-4.5%), and England and Wales (-4.5%). Patterns were similar in women, though with appreciably lower rates. The AAPC in the EU was -3.3% for men (rate = 16.6/100,000 in 2005-7) and -2.1% for women (rate = 3.5/100,000). For CVD, Russian rates in 2005-7 were 40/100,000 men and 16/100,000 women, 5 to 10-fold higher than in most western European countries. The steepest declines were in the Czech Republic and Italy for men, in Sweden and the Czech Republic for women. The AAPC in the EU was -2.5% in both sexes, with steeper declines after the mid-late 1990s (rates = 6.4/100,000 men and 4.3/100,000 women in 2005-7). Conclusions: CHD and CVD mortality steadily declined in Europe, except in Russia, whose rates were 10 to 15-fold higher than those of France, Italy or Sweden. Hungary and Poland, and also Scotland, where CHD trends were less favourable than in other western European countries, also emerge as priorities for preventive interventions.

Antifungal activity of extracts from Atacama Desert fungi againstParacoccidioides brasiliensis and identification ofAspergillus felis as a promising source of natural bioactive compounds

Fungi of the genus Paracoccidioides are responsible for paracoccidioidomycosis. The occurrence of drug toxicity and relapse in this disease justify the development of new antifungal agents. Compounds extracted from fungal extract have showing antifungal activity. Extracts of 78 fungi isolated from rocks of the Atacama Desert were tested in a microdilution assay against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis Pb18. Approximately 18% (5) of the extracts showed minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values≤ 125.0 µg/mL. Among these, extract from the fungus UFMGCB 8030 demonstrated the best results, with an MIC of 15.6 µg/mL. This isolate was identified as Aspergillus felis (by macro and micromorphologies, and internal transcribed spacer, β-tubulin, and ribosomal polymerase II gene analyses) and was grown in five different culture media and extracted with various solvents to optimise its antifungal activity. Potato dextrose agar culture and dichloromethane extraction resulted in an MIC of 1.9 µg/mL against P. brasiliensis and did not show cytotoxicity at the concentrations tested in normal mammalian cell (Vero). This extract was subjected to bioassay-guided fractionation using analytical C18RP-high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and an antifungal assay using P. brasiliensis. Analysis of the active fractions by HPLC-high resolution mass spectrometry allowed us to identify the antifungal agents present in the A. felis extracts cytochalasins. These results reveal the potential of A. felis as a producer of bioactive compounds with antifungal activity.