Very large inverse problems in atmosphere and ocean modelling

For the very large nonlinear dynamical systems that arise in a wide range of physical, biological and environmental problems, the data needed to initialize a numerical forecasting model are seldom available. To generate accurate estimates of the expected states of the system, both current and future, the technique of ‘data assimilation’ is used to combine the numerical model predictions with observations of the system measured over time. Assimilation of data is an inverse problem that for very large-scale systems is generally ill-posed. In four-dimensional variational assimilation schemes, the dynamical model equations provide constraints that act to spread information into data sparse regions, enabling the state of the system to be reconstructed accurately. The mechanism for this is not well understood. Singular value decomposition techniques are applied here to the observability matrix of the system in order to analyse the critical features in this process. Simplified models are used to demonstrate how information is propagated from observed regions into unobserved areas. The impact of the size of the observational noise and the temporal position of the observations is examined. The best signal-to-noise ratio needed to extract the most information from the observations is estimated using Tikhonov regularization theory. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Variational data assimilation for very large environmental problems

Variational data assimilation is commonly used in environmental forecasting to estimate the current state of the system from a model forecast and observational data. The assimilation problem can be written simply in the form of a nonlinear least squares optimization problem. However the practical solution of the problem in large systems requires many careful choices to be made in the implementation. In this article we present the theory of variational data assimilation and then discuss in detail how it is implemented in practice. Current solutions and open questions are discussed.

Diagnosis and environmental planning for Paranagud - PR - Brazil

The main goal of this study was to identify and analyse environmental problems related to human occupation at the south part of the city of Paranagua PR, Brazil, aiming the diagnosis and conceptual evaluation of landscape use. For landscape use assessments and degradation diagnosis purposes, the environment was classified considering mainly geological and geomorphologic characteristics, such as declivity and sediment origin. The identification of potential environmental impacts was made by aerial photographs, Landsat-TM images, photographic records, surface sediment samples, water-column samples, and mainly observation visits to each classified unit. Surface sediment samples were taken with a Petit-Ponar sampler, in 13 station located in Paranagua Bay. In order to characterize the contamination level on sediments, the concentration of the following elements were analysed: arsenic (As), copper (Cu), cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), lead (Ph) e zinc (Zn). For the extraction of these elements, samples were treated with HCl 0.1N for 12 hours. This method has the advantage of determining contaminants which are weakly bind to the sediment, thus more available to the system. Analysis were performed by atomic absorption spectroscopy. According to the adopted criteria, sectors were classified as hills, mangroves, continental sediments and beach ridges urban and port industrial. Water quality and concentrations of metallic elements were determined at three sectors one control and two with the influence of urban and port/industrial activities, respectively the major upland impacts found were: deforestation due to disordered occupation, and solid waste emission through domestic and industrial sewage. The diagnosis of the actual situation was used as a basis for a management plan, once it allows the identification of impacts, and consequent environmental irregularities. Based on this considerations, suggestions for land use and management were presented, which offers a better approach for recuperation and protection of the studied ecosystem.

Assessment of the socioeconomic and environmental impact of hurricane Ivan on Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Phenotypic, genetic and environmental parameters for traits related to femur bone integrity and body weight at 42 days of age in a broiler population

Intense selection among broilers, especially for performance and carcass traits, currently favors locomotion problems and bone resistance. Conducting studies relating to development and growth of bone tissue in broilers is necessary to minimize losses. Thus, genetic parameters were estimated for a broiler population's phenotypic traits such as BW at 42 d of age (BW42), chilled femur weight (CFW) and its yield (CFY), and femur measurements: calcium, DM, magnesium, phosphorus, and zinc content; breaking strength; rigidity; length; and thickness. Variance components were estimated through multitrait analyses using the restricted maximum likelihood method. The model included a fixed group effect (sex and hatch) and additive and residual genetic random effects. The heritability estimates we obtained ranged from 0.10 ± 0.05 to 0.50 ± 0.08 for chilled femur yield and BW42, respectively, and indicated that the traits can respond to the selection process, except for CFY, which presented low-magnitude heritability coefficients. Genetic correlation estimates between breaking strength, rigidity, and traits related to mineral content indicated that selection that aims to improve the breaking strength resistance of the femur is highly correlated with mineral content. Given the genetic correlation estimates between BW42 and minerals, it is suggested that in this population, selection for BW42 can be performed with greater intensity without affecting femoral integrity.

Experiments on Pro-Sociality and Environmental Issues

The thesis comprises three essays that use experimental methods, one about other-regarding motivations in economic behavior and the others on pro-social behavior in two environmental economics problems. The first chapter studies how the expectations of the others and the concern to maintain a balance between effort exerted and rewards obtained interact in shaping the behavior in a modified dictator game. We find that dictators condition their choices on recipients' expectations only when there is a high probability that the the recipient will not be compensated for her effort. Otherwise, dictators tend to balance the efforts and rewards of the recipients, irrespective of the recipients' expectations. In the second chapter, I investigate the problem of local opposition to large public projects (e.g. landfills, incinerators, etc.). In particular, the experiment shows how the uncertainty about the project's quality makes the community living in the host site skeptical about the project. I also test whether side-transfers and costly information disclosure can help to increase the efficiency. Both tools succesfully make the host more willing to accept the project, but they lead to the realization of different types of projects. The last chapter is an experiment on climate negotiations. To avoid the global warming, countries are called to cooperate in the abatement of their emissions. We study whether the dynamic aspect of the climate change makes cooperation across countries behaviorally more difficult. We also consider inequality across countries as a possible factor that hinders international cooperation.

Romany Families in Romania: Intelligence and Personality of Children Cross-cultural and Specific Problems of Development

Psychogenetic research has emphasised the influence of social factors on a child's intellectual development. In her work, Ms. Dumitrascu examines two such factors; family size and order of birth. However, since these formal parameters tend to be unstable, other more informal factors should be taken into consideration. Of these, perhaps the most interesting is the "style" of parental education, which Ms. Dumitrascu regards as an expression of national traditions at the family level. This educational style is culture dependent. Only a comparative, cross-cultural study can reveal the real mechanism through which educational style influences the development of a child's intellect and personality. Ms. Dumitrascu conducted an experimental cross-cultural study aimed at examining the effects of the family environment on a child's intellectual development. Three distinct populations were involved in her investigation, each having quite a distinct status in their geographical area; Romanians, Romanies (Gypsies) from Romania, and Russians from the Republic of Moldova. She presented her research in the form of a series of articles written in English totalling 85 pages, and also on disc. A significant difference was revealed between the intelligence of a child living in a large family, and that of a child with no brothers or sisters. In the case of Romany children, the gap is remarkably large. Ms. Dumitrascu concludes that the simultaneous action of several negative factors (low socio-economic status, large family size, socio-cultural isolation of a population) may delay child development. Subjected to such a precarious environment, Romany children do not seek self-realisation, but rather struggle to survive the hardship. Most of them remain out of civilisation. Unfortunately, adult Romanies seldom express any concern regarding their children's successful social integration. The school as main socialisation tool has no value for most parents. Ms. Dumitrascu argues the need for a major effort aimed at helping Romany's social integration. She hopes this project will be of some help for psychologists, social workers, teachers, and all those who are interested in the integration into society of minority groups.

Establishing occupational and environmental health design requirements for Lunar and Mars settlements

In a study of Lunar and Mars settlement concepts, an analysis was made of fundamental design assumptions in five technical areas against a model list of occupational and environmental health concerns. The technical areas included the proposed science projects to be supported, habitat and construction issues, closed ecosystem issues, the "MMM" issues--mining, material-processing, and manufacturing, and the human elements of physiology, behavior and mission approach. Four major lessons were learned. First it is possible to relate public health concerns to complex technological development in a proactive design mode, which has the potential for long-term cost savings. Second, it became very apparent that prior to committing any nation or international group to spending the billions to start and complete a lunar settlement, over the next century, that a significantly different approach must be taken from those previously proposed, to solve the closed ecosystem and "MMM" problems. Third, it also appears that the health concerns and technology issues to be addressed for human exploration into space are fundamentally those to be solved for human habitation of the earth (as a closed ecosystem) in the 21st century. Finally, it is proposed that ecosystem design modeling must develop new tools, based on probabilistic models as a step up from closed circuit models. ^

Assessing perceptions of environmental risk and environmental justice and their impacts on neighborhood attachment in a predominately Hispanic community

This study examines and relates concepts from environmental risk perception and environmental justice and focuses on the perception of environmental problems, their consequent health risks and their impact on neighborhood attachment in a predominately Hispanic community along the U.S.-Mexico border. The findings indicate that the perception of environmental problems in the immediate area varies by problem and demographic subgroup. Ethnicity and income have the highest number of statistically significant associations across ten environmental problems. This result lies in the fact that Hispanics in El Paso County and those with low annual incomes live in neighborhoods that are faced with more severe environmental problems. Thus the findings lend support to the environmental justice claim that the poor and minorities bear the brunt of environmental degradation. ^ The findings also provide evidence that public perception of health risks from an environmental problem is influenced by the perceived severity of an environmental problem in the immediate area. Those who believe the problem is serious on a local level are the ones who are most likely to believe that they could become ill or injured from that problem and that the illness/injury will be serious. ^ The findings of this study also indicate that the young, Hispanics, those who perceive considerable environmental problems in their neighborhood, those who believe that their neighborhood has more environmental problems than others, and those who are angry about those problems are most likely to want to move from their neighborhood. ^ Efforts need to be made to enact policies and programs designed to reduce the environmental hazards in disadvantaged Hispanic communities along the U.S.-Mexico border. Future environmental education campaigns need to complement community-based projects with the media. Programs that involve and empower the community, particularly the youth, in improving the neighborhood could provide a sense of control and pride within their community in solving these problems. These neighborhood improvement efforts could also lead to the development and strengthening of social ties within the community, as well as enhanced community cohesiveness in tackling these problems. ^

The relationship between enterotoxigenic {\it Escherichia coli\/} infection and environmental risk factors in Bilbeis, Egypt, 1981--1983

Diarrheal disease associated with enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) infection is one of the major public health problems in many developing countries, especially in infants and young children. Because tests suitable for field laboratories have been developed only relatively recently, the literature on the environmental risk factors associated with ETEC is not as complete as for many other pathogens or for diarrhea of unspecified etiology.^ Data from a diarrheal disease surveillance project in rural Egypt in which stool samples were tested for a variety of pathogens, and in which an environmental questionnaire was completed for the same study households, provided an opportunity to test for an association between ETEC and various risk factors present in those households. ETEC laboratory-positive specimens were compared with ETEC laboratory-negative specimens for both symptomatic and asymptomatic children less than three years of age at the individual and household level using a case-comparison design.^ Individual children more likely to have LT infection were those who lived in HHs that had cooked food stored for subsequent consumption at the time of the visit, where caretakers used water but not soap to clean an infant after a diarrheal stool, and that had an indoor, private water source. LT was more common in HHs where the caretaker did not clean an infant with soap after a diarrheal stool, and where a sleeping infant was not covered with a net. At both the individual and HH level, LT was significantly associated with good water supply in terms of quantity and storage.^ ST was isolated more frequently at the individual level where a sleeping infant was covered with a net, where large animals were kept in or around the house, where water was always available and was not potable, and where the water container was not covered. At the HH level, the absence of a toilet or latrine and the indiscriminate disposal of animal waste decreased risk. Using animal feces for fertilizer, the presence of large animals, and poor water quality were associated with ST at both the individual and HH level.^ These findings are mostly consistent with those of other studies, and/or are biologically plausible, with the obvious exception of those from this study where poorer water supplies are associated with less infection, at least in the case of LT. More direct observation of how animal ownership and feces disposal relates to different types of water supply and usage might clarify mechanisms through which some ETEC infection could be prevented in similar settings. ^

Practical case with regard to applying the functional and environmental method to low crest level, detached breakwaters

The research work as presented in this article covers the design of detached breakwaters since they constitute a type of coastal defence work with which to combat many of the erosion problems found on beaches in a stable, sustainable fashion. The main aim of this work is to formulate a functional and environmental (but not structural) design method, enabling the fundamental characteristics of a detached breakwater to be defined as a function of the effect it is wished to induce on the coast, and taking into account variables of a different nature (climate, geomorphology and geometry) influencing the changes the shoreline undergoes after its construction. With this article, it is intended to submit the final result of the investigation undertaken, applying the detached breakwater design method as developed to solving a practical case. Thus it may be shown how the method enables a detached breakwater’s geometric pre-sizing to be tackled at a place on the coast with certain climate, geomorphology and littoral dynamic characteristics, first setting the final state of equilibrium it is wanted to obtain therein after its construction.

Plasma Spectroscopic Techniques Applied to Biological and Environmental Matrices

The purpose of this research was to apply the use of direct ablation plasma spectroscopic techniques, including spark-induced breakdown spectroscopy (SIBS) and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS), to a variety of environmental matrices. These were applied to two different analytical problems. SIBS instrumentation was adapted in order to develop a fieldable monitor for the measurement of carbon in soil. SIBS spectra in the 200 nm to 400 nm region of several soils were collected, and the neutral carbon line (247.85 nm) was compared to total carbon concentration determined by standard dry combustion analysis. Additionally, Fe and Si were evaluated in a multivariate model in order to determine their impacts on the model's predictive power for total carbon concentrations. The results indicate that SIBS is a viable method to quantify total carbon levels in soils; obtaining a good correlation between measured and predicated carbon in soils. These results indicate that multivariate analysis can be used to construct a calibration model for SIBS soil spectra, and SIBS is a promising method for the determination of total soil carbon. SIBS was also applied to the study of biological warfare agent simulants. Elemental compositions (determined independently) of bioaerosol samples were compared to the SIBS atomic (Ca, Al, Fe and Si) and molecular (CN, N2 and OH) emission signals. Results indicate a linear relationship between the temporally integrated emission strength and the concentration of the associated element. Finally, LIBS signals of hematite were analyzed under low pressures of pure CO2 and compared with signals acquired with a mixture of CO2, N2 and Ar, which is representative of the Martian atmosphere. This research was in response to the potential use of LIBS instrumentation on the Martian surface and to the challenges associated with these measurements. Changes in Ca, Fe and Al lineshapes observed in the LIBS spectra at different gas compositions and pressures were studied. It was observed that the size of the plasma formed on the hematite changed in a non-linear way as a function of decreasing pressure in a CO2 atmosphere and a simulated Martian atmosphere.

Maternal alcohol use disorder and offspring ADHD: disentangling genetic and environmental effects using a children-of-twins design

Background. Children of alcoholics are significantly more likely to experience high-risk environmental exposures, including prenatal substance exposure, and are more likely to exhibit externalizing problems [e.g. attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)]. While there is evidence that genetic influences and prenatal nicotine and/or alcohol exposure play separate roles in determining risk of ADHD, little has been done on determining the joint roles that genetic risk associated with maternal alcohol use disorder (AUD) and prenatal risk factors play in determining risk of ADHD. Method. Using a children-of-twins design, diagnostic telephone interview data from high-risk families (female monozygotic and dizygotic twins concordant or discordant for AUD as parents) and control families targeted from a large Australian twin cohort were analyzed using logistic regression models. Results. Offspring of twins with a history of AUD, as well as offspring of non-AUD monozygotic twins whose co-twin had AUD, were significantly more likely to exhibit ADHD than offspring of controls. This pattern is consistent with a genetic explanation for the association between maternal AUD and increased offspring risk of ADHD. Adjustment for prenatal smoking, which remained significantly predictive, did not remove the significant genetic association between maternal AUD and offspring ADHD. Conclusions. While maternal smoking during pregnancy probably contributes to the association between maternal AUD and offspring ADHD risk, the evidence for a significant genetic correlation suggests: (i) pleiotropic genetic effects, with some genes that influence risk of AUD also influencing vulnerability to ADHD; or (ii) ADHD is a direct risk-factor for AUD.