Efeitos do fogo recorrente na serrapilheira: consequências para artrópodes, decomposição e mineralização de carbono e nitrogênio em uma floresta de transição da Amazônia

Os artrópodes possuem uma importante função no ecossistema, pois participam da ciclagem de nutrientes, decomposição, trituração e mistura da serrapilheira. Os incêndios florestais, cada vez mais freqüentes na Amazônia, destroem a camada de serrapilheira e os artrópodes que nela vivem. O objetivo desta tese é investigar como o fogo recorrente atua sobre este processo, investigando a abundância e densidade de artrópodes de serrapilheira e as taxas de decomposição da matéria orgânica e a mineralização de C e N em uma floresta de transição da Amazônia no município de Querência, estado do Mato Grosso. Para tanto, uma parcela de 50 ha de floresta primária (500 x 1000 m) foi queimada experimentalmente a cada ano a partir de 2004, e outra área de mesmo tamanho foi mantida intacta para controle. Os artrópodes foram coletados aleatoriamente em 40 pontos distribuídos dentro da parcela, por meio de armadilhas de solo (“pitfalls”) e em 40 pontos sendo extraídos da serrapilhaira através de funis de Berlese. As coletas foram realizadas em fevereiro, abril (estação chuvosa), junho e agosto (estação seca) de 2007, após a terceira queima experimental anual. Os artrópodes foram analisados até o nível taxonômico de ordem e as formigas foram identificadas até gênero. O estudo de decomposição foi feito com 480 bolsas se serrapilheira distribuídas aleatoriamente, com 240 em cada parcela, quatro meses após a última queimada. As bolsas foram confeccionadas com malhas de nylon com aberturas de 2 mm (malha fina), e em metade delas foram feitos três orifícios de 1 cm² de cada lado, permitindo a entrada de macroartrópodes (malha grossa). Em cada bolsa foi inserido cerca de 10 g de folhas secas. A cada dois meses 30 bolsas de cada tipo de malha foi retirada de cada parcela, totalizando duas retiradas na estação seca e duas na estação chuvosa. As bolsas foram secas em estufa e pesadas novamente. A diferença entre peso seco inicial e final representou a taxa de decomposição. A cada retirada de um lote de bolsas de cada tipo de malha e de cada parcela, uma subamostra (10) destas bolsas foram selecionadas aleatoriamente para análises de análise de C e N das folhas. Os artrópodes apresentaram fortes diferenças sazonais. Na estação seca os colêmbolas ocorreram em menor abundância e as formigas ocorreram em maior abundância. Concomitantemente aos efeitos de sazonalidade, os artrópodes apresentaram diversas respostas ao fogo, com alguns grupos apresentando aumento e outros redução em abundância e densidade em diferentes datas pós-fogo, em comparação a floresta controle. Os ortópteros se destacaram por terem apresentado maior abundância em todas as datas pós-fogo em comparação a floresta controle. Em geral os macropredadores freduziram sua abundância e densidade após o fogo (formigas, besouros, dentre outros) e os engenheiros de ecossistema e decompositores foram mais abundantes (baratas, ácaros, dentre outros) em relação à floresta controle. As formigas também apresentaram diferenças entre as parcelas: maior diversidade e modificações na composição de gêneros durante a estação seca, pois o fogo favoreceu o aumento em abundância de formigas generalistas. As taxas de decomposição na parcela queimada foram menores do que na parcela controle, e as bolsas de malha fina com menores taxas de decomposição do que as bolsas de malha grossa. As taxas de C e N também foram diferentes entre as parcelas, e a razão C/N, na parcela queimada se manteve estável em todas as datas pós-fogo, enquanto na parcela controle houve declínio gradual durante o experimento seguindo as estações. Estes resultados indicam que o fogo modifica a fauna de serrapilheira, reduzindo diversas populações de artrópodes e modificando a composição deste grupo. As bolsas de malha fina indicam que a exclusão de macroartrópodes reduzem a taxa de decomposição da matéria orgânica e que os microartrópodes são mais prejudicados. O fogo também reduz o processo de mineralização de C e N já que a razão C/N se manteve estável na parcela queimada. Este estudo demonstra que o fogo recorrente tem forte efeito sobre artrópodes de serrapilheira e ciclagem de nutrientes em florestas de transição da Amazônia.

Reference Gene Selection for Gene Expression Analysis of Oocytes Collected from Dairy Cattle and Buffaloes during Winter and Summer

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Tifton 419 Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon C. transvaaliensis) response to plant grow inhibitors

Tifton 419' bermudagrass cultivar [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers. x C. transvaalensis Burtt-Davy] is the most preferred turfgrass for sportive, commercial and residential lawns. On similar species, such as Stenotaphrum secundatum and Zoysia japonica, gibberellic acid-inhibiting plant growth regulators (PGRs) are used to decrease mowing frequency. A very limited research has been reported yet on the PGRs regarding seasonal effects of single vs. multiple applications of these products on turfgrass quality and clipping production on South America. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of sequential applications of different plant growth inhibitors during re-growth and flower rachis emission of 'Tifton 419' Bermudagrass. The treatment pattern includes an initial application followed by one sequential application at 14 days intervals, according to the following: prohexadione-calcium at 100+100 or 200+200 g a.i. ha-1, bispyribac-sodium at 40+40 or 60+60 g a.i. ha-1, trinexapac-ethyl at 113+113, 226+113, 226+226, 452+113, 452+226, 452+452, 678+0 or 904+0 g a.i. ha-1, and untreated control. The treatment effect was evaluated based on measurements of visual injury, height of plants, height and number of flower rachis, and clipping total dry mass production. The results showed that only bispyribac-sodium provided visual injury on 'Tifton 419' Bermudagrass, but the symptoms quickly tend towards zero at 21 days after second application (DASA). 'Tifton 419' Bermudagrass greens could be better handle by sequential application of trinexapac-ethyl, or prohexadione-calcium or bispyribac-sodium, once the height of plants, seedhead emission and total clipping dry mass reduction were over than 37%, 91% and 88%, respectively, for a period up to 60 DASA.

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Insolation, erosion, and morphology of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Context. The complex shape of comet 67P and its oblique rotation axis cause pronounced seasonal effects. Irradiation and hence activity vary strongly. Aims. We investigate the insolation of the cometary surface in order to predict the sublimation of water ice. The strongly varying erosion levels are correlated with the topography and morphology of the present cometary surface and its evolution. Methods. The insolation as a function of heliocentric distance and diurnal (spin dependent) variation is calculated using >10(5) facets of a detailed digital terrain model. Shading, but also illumination and thermal radiation by facets in the field of view of a specific facet are iteratively taken into account. We use a two-layer model of a thin porous dust cover above an icy surface to calculate the water sublimation, presuming steady state and a uniform surface. Our second model, which includes the history of warming and cooling due to thermal inertia, is restricted to a much simpler shape model but allows us to test various distributions of active areas. Results. Sublimation from a dirty ice surface yields maximum erosion. A thin dust cover of 50 pm yields similar rates at perihelion. Only about 6% of the surface needs to be active to match the observed water production rates at perihelion. A dust layer of 1 mm thickness suppresses the activity by a factor of 4 to 5. Erosion on the south side can reach more than 10 m per orbit at active spots. The energy input to the concave neck area (Hapi) during northern summer is enhanced by about 50% owing to self-illumination. Here surface temperatures reach maximum values along the foot of the Hathor wall. Integrated over the whole orbit this area receives the least energy input. Based on the detailed shape model, the simulations identify "hot spots" in depressions and larger pits in good correlation with observed dust activity. Three-quarters of the total sublimation is produced while the sub-solar latitude is south, resulting in a distinct dichotomy in activity and morphology. Conclusions. The northern areas display a much rougher morphology than what is seen on Imhotep, an area at the equator that will be fully illuminated when 67P is closer to the Sun. Self-illumination in concave regions enhance the energy input and hence erosion. This explains the early activity observed at Hapi. Cliffs are more prone to erosion than horizontal, often dust covered, areas, which leads to surface planation. Local activity can only persist if the forming cliff walls are eroding. Comet 67P has two lobes and also two distinct sides. Transport of material from the south to the north is probable. The morphology of the Imhotep plain should be typical for the terrains of the yet unseen southern hemisphere.

Water chemistry and fluffy layer geochemistry and mineral content at four sites in the western Baltic Sea

The fluffy layer was sampled repeatedly during nine expeditions between October 1996 and December 1998 at four stations situated along a S-N-transect from the Oder Estuary to the Arkona Basin. Geochemical and mineralogical analyses of the fluff show regional differences (trends) in composition, attributed to provenance and to hydrographical conditions along their transport pathways. Temporal variability is very high at the shallow water station of the estuary, and decreases towards the deeper stations in the north. In the shallow water area, intensive resuspension of the fluff due to wind-driven waves and currents leads to an average residence time of only one to two days. Near-bottom lateral transport of the fluff is the main process that transfers the fine grained material, containing both nutrients and contaminants, from the coastal zone into the deeper basins of the Baltic Sea. Seasonal effects (e.g. biogenic production in relation to trace metal variation) are observed at the Tromper Wiek station, where the residence time of the fluffy material is in the scale of seasons. Thus, the fluffy layer offers suitable material for environmental monitoring programs.

Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Canine and Feline Diabetes Mellitus: Nature or Nurture?

There is evidence for the role of genetic and environmental factors in feline and canine diabetes. Type 2 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes in cats. Evidence for genetic factors in feline diabetes includes the overrepresentation of Burmese cats with diabetes. Environmental risk factors in domestic or Burmese cats include advancing age, obesity, male gender, neutering, drug treatment, physical inactivity, and indoor confinement. High-carbohydrate diets increase blood glucose and insulin levels and may predispose cats to obesity and diabetes. Low-carbohydrate, high-protein diets may help prevent diabetes in cats at risk such as obese cats or lean cats with underlying low insulin sensitivity. Evidence exists for a genetic basis and altered immune response in the pathogenesis of canine diabetes. Seasonal effects on the incidence of diagnosis indicate that there are environmental influences on disease progression. At least 50% of diabetic dogs have type 1 diabetes based on present evidence of immune destruction of P-cells. Epidemiological factors closely match those of the latent autoimmune diabetes of adults form of human type 1 diabetes. Extensive pancreatic damage, likely from chronic pancreatitis, causes similar to28% of canine diabetes cases. Environmental factors such as feeding of high-fat diets are potentially associated with pancreatitis and likely play a role in the development of pancreatitis in diabetic dogs. There are no published data showing that overt type 2 diabetes occurs in dogs or that obesity is a risk factor for canine diabetes. Diabetes diagnosed in a bitch during either pregnancy or diestrus is comparable to human gestational diabetes.

The effect of introducing radiographer reporting on the availability of reports for Accident and Emergency and General Practitioner examinations: a time-series analysis

This study explores whether the introduction of selectively trained radiographers reporting Accident and Emergency (A&E) X-ray examinations or the appendicular skeleton affected the availability of reports for A&E and General Practitioner (GP) examinations at it typical district general hospital. This was achieved by analysing monthly data on A&E and GP examinations for 1993 1997 using structural time-series models. Parameters to capture stochastic seasonal effects and stochastic time trends were included ill the models. The main outcome measures were changes in the number, proportion and timeliness of A&E and GP examinations reported. Radiographer reporting X-ray examinations requested by A&E was associated with it 12% (p = 0.050) increase in the number of A&E examinations reported and it 37% (p

The development of a solid waste management strategy

This research is concerned with the application of operational research techniques in the development of a long- term waste management policy by an English waste disposal authority. The main aspects which have been considered are the estimation of future waste production and the assessment of the effects of proposed systems. Only household and commercial wastes have been dealt with in detail, though suggestions are made for the extension of the effect assessment to cover industrial and other wastes. Similarly, the only effects considered in detail have been costs, but possible extensions are discussed. An important feature of the study is that it was conducted in close collaboration with a waste disposal authority, and so pays more attention to the actual needs of the authority than is usual in such research. A critical examination of previous waste forecasting work leads to the use of simple trend extrapolation methods, with some consideration of seasonal effects. The possibility of relating waste production to other social and economic indicators is discussed. It is concluded that, at present, large uncertainties in predictions are inevitable; waste management systems must therefore be designed to cope with this uncertainty. Linear programming is used to assess the overall costs of proposals. Two alternative linear programming formulations of this problem are used and discussed. The first is a straightforward approach, which has been .implemented as an interactive computer program. The second is more sophisticated and represents the behaviour of incineration plants more realistically. Careful attention is paid to the choice of appropriate data and the interpretation of the results. Recommendations are made on methods for immediate use, on the choice of data to be collected for future plans, and on the most useful lines for further research and development.

Oxygen isotope ratios on calcite from the Piànico lake record

Stable oxygen isotope analyses at annual, 2-, 5-, 10- and 20-varve sample resolutions were carried out on two selected varve intervals from the interglacial sediment record of the Piànico palaeolake. These sediments are particularly suitable for ultra-high-resolution isotope analyses on lacustrine endogenic calcite because of the exceptionally well-preserved varve structure. A bias through detrital contamination can be excluded because microscopically controlled sampling enabled selecting detritus-free samples. The studied sediment intervals comprise 352 and 88 continuous varve series formed during periods of rapid climate change at the onset and end of a marked millennial-scale cool interval during the Piànico Interglacial. The most intriguing result is a pronounced short-term oscillation in the bi-annually resolved isotope record superimposed on the general decreasing and increasing d18O trends at the climatic transitions that is recorded at lower sample resolution. Spectral analyses of the bi-annual time series reveal periodicities indicating solar and NAO controls on the d18O record. Multiple d18O measurements from endogenic calcite of individual varves showed variations of up to 0.6 per mil, thus larger than the observed inter-annual variability and most likely explained by seasonal effects.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Application of dried blood spots to determine vitamin D status in a large nutritional study with unsupervised sampling: the Food4Me project

An efficient and robust method to measure vitamin D (25-hydroxy vitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxy vitamin D2 in dried blood spots (DBS) has been developed and applied in the pan-European multi-centre, internet-based, personalised nutrition intervention study Food4Me. The method includes calibration with blood containing endogenous 25(OH)D3, spotted as DBS and corrected for haematocrit content. The methodology was validated following international standards. The performance characteristics did not reach those of the current gold standard liquid chromatography-MS/MS in plasma for all parameters, but were found to be very suitable for status-level determination under field conditions. DBS sample quality was very high, and 3778 measurements of 25(OH)D3 were obtained from 1465 participants. The study centre and the season within the study centre were very good predictors of 25(OH)D3 levels (P<0·001 for each case). Seasonal effects were modelled by fitting a sine function with a minimum 25(OH)D3 level on 20 January and a maximum on 21 July. The seasonal amplitude varied from centre to centre. The largest difference between winter and summer levels was found in Germany and the smallest in Poland. The model was cross-validated to determine the consistency of the predictions and the performance of the DBS method. The Pearson's correlation between the measured values and the predicted values was r 0·65, and the sd of their differences was 21·2 nmol/l. This includes the analytical variation and the biological variation within subjects. Overall, DBS obtained by unsupervised sampling of the participants at home was a viable methodology for obtaining vitamin D status information in a large nutritional study.

Assessing the impact of agricultural drought on maize prices in Kenya with the approach of the SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI remote sensing

The high cost of maize in Kenya is basically driven by East African regional commodity demand forces and agricultural drought. The production of maize, which is a common staple food in Kenya, is greatly affected by agricultural drought. However, calculations of drought risk and impact on maize production in Kenya is limited by the scarcity of reliable rainfall data. The objective of this study was to apply a novel hyperspectral remote sensing method to modelling temporal fluctuations of maize production and prices in five markets in Kenya. SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI time series were corrected for seasonal effects by computing the standardized NDVI anomalies. The maize residual price time series was further related to the NDVI seasonal anomalies using a multiple linear regression modelling approach. The result shows a moderately strong positive relationship (0.67) between residual price series and global maize prices. Maize prices were high during drought periods (i.e. negative NDVI anomalies) and low during wet seasons (i.e. positive NDVI anomalies). This study concludes that NDVI is a good index for monitoring the evolution of maize prices and food security emergency planning in Kenya. To obtain a very strong correlation for the relationship between the wholesale maize price and the global maize price, future research could consider adding other price-driving factors into the regression models.