On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond

The main objective of this paper is to propose a novel setup that allows estimating separately the welfare costs of the uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and from economic-growth variation, when the two types of shocks associated with them (respectively,transitory and permanent shocks) hit consumption simultaneously. Separating these welfare costs requires dealing with degenerate bivariate distributions. Levis Continuity Theorem and the Disintegration Theorem allow us to adequately de ne the one-dimensional limiting marginal distributions. Under Normality, we show that the parameters of the original marginal distributions are not afected, providing the means for calculating separately the welfare costs of business-cycle uctuations and of economic-growth variation. Our empirical results show that, if we consider only transitory shocks, the welfare cost of business cycles is much smaller than previously thought. Indeed, we found it to be negative - -0:03% of per-capita consumption! On the other hand, we found that the welfare cost of economic-growth variation is relatively large. Our estimate for reasonable preference-parameter values shows that it is 0:71% of consumption US$ 208:98 per person, per year.

Development cycles, political regimes and international migration: Argentina in the 20th century

Includes bibliography

Economic growth in Latin America in the late 20th century: evidence and interpretation

Includes bibliography

Distribution of North Pacific right whales (Eubalaena japonica) as shown by 19th and 20th century whaling catch and sighting records

North Pacific right whales (Eubalaena japonica) were extensively exploited in the 19th century, and their recovery was further retarded (severely so in the eastern population) by illegal Soviet catches in the 20th century, primarily in the 1960s. Monthly plots of right whale sightings and catches from both the 19th and 20th centuries are provided, using data summarized by Scarff (1991, from the whale charts of Matthew Fontaine Maury) and Brownell et al. (2001), respectively. Right whales had an extensive offshore distribution in the 19th century, and were common in areas (such as the Gulf of Alaska and Sea of Japan) where few or no right whales occur today. Seasonal movements of right whales are apparent in the data, although to some extent these reflect survey and whaling effort. That said, these seasonal movements indicate a general northward migration in spring from lower latitudes, and major concentrations above 40°N in summer. Sightings diminished and occurred further south in autumn, and few animals were recorded anywhere in winter. These north-south migratory movements support the hypothesis of two largely discrete populations of right whales in the eastern and western North Pacific. Overall, these analyses confirm that the size and range of the right whale population is now considerably diminished in the North Pacific relative to the situation during the peak period of whaling for this species in the 19th century. For management purposes, new surveys are urgently required to establish the present distribution of this species; existing data suggest that the Bering Sea, the Gulf of Alaska, the Okhotsk Sea, the Kuril Islands and the coast of Kamchatka are the areas with the greatest likelihood of finding right whales today.

Height variability from the MIROC - IPCC model for the 20th century compared to that of the TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter

Planetary waves are key to large-scale dynamical adjustment in the global ocean as they transfer energy from the east to the west side of oceanic basins; they connect the forcing in the ocean interior with the variability at its boundaries: and they change the local heat content, thus coupling oceanic, atmospheric, and biological processes. Planetary waves, mostly of the first baroclinic mode, are observed as distinctive patterns in global time series of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and heat storage. The goal of this study is to compare and validate large-scale SSHA signals from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) with TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter observations. The last decade of the models` time series is selected for comparison with the altimeter data. The wave patterns are separated from the meso- and large-scale SSHA signals by digital filters calibrated to select the same spectral bands in both model and altimeter data. The band-wise comparison allows for an assessment of the model skill to simulate the dynamical components of the observed wave field. Comparisons regarding both the seasonal cycle and the Rossby wave Held differ significantly among basins. When carried within the same basin, differences can occur between equal latitudes in opposite hemispheres. Furthermore, at some latitudes the MIROC reproduces biannual, annual and semiannual planetary waves with phase speeds and average amplitudes similar to those observed by the altimeter, but with significant differences in phase. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Glaciers and climate in northern Sweden during the 19th and 20th century

Our understanding of the climate of northern Sweden during the late Holocene is largely dependent on proxy-data series. These datasets remain spatially and temporally sparse and instrumental series are rare prior to the mid 19th century. Nevertheless, the glaciology and paleo-glaciology of the region has a strong potential significance for the exploration of climate change scenarios, past and future. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the 19th and 20th century climate in the northern Swedish mountain range. This provides a good opportunity to analyse the natural variability of the climate before the onset of the industrial epoch. Developing a temporal understanding of fluctuations in glacier front positions and glacier mass balance that is linked to a better understanding of their interaction and relative significance to climate is fundamental in the assessment of past climate. I have chosen to investigate previously unexplored temperature data from northern Sweden from between 1802 and 1860 and combined it with a temperature series from a synoptic station in Haparanda, which began operation in 1859, in order to create a reliable long temperature series for the period 1802 to 2002. I have also investigated two different glaciers, Pårteglaciären and Salajekna, which are located in different climatic environments. These glaciers have, from a Swedish perspective, long observational records. Furthermore, I have investigated a recurring jökulhlaup at the glacier Sälkaglaciären in order to analyse glacier-climate relationships with respect to the jökulhlaups. A number of datasets are presented, including: glacier frontal changes, in situ and photogrammetric mass balance data, in situ and satellite radar interferometry measurements of surface velocity, radar measurements, ice volume data and a temperature series. All these datasets are analysed in order to investigate the response of the glaciers to climatic stimuli, to attribute specific behaviour to particular climates and to analyse the 19th and 20th century glacier/climate relationships in northern Sweden. The 19th century was characterized by cold conditions in northern Sweden, particularly in winter. Significant changes in the amplitude of the annual temperature cycle are evident. Through the 19th century there is a marked decreasing trend in the amplitude of the data, suggesting a change towards a prevalence of maritime (westerly) air masses, something which has characterised the 20th century. The investigations on Salajekna support the conclusion that the major part of the 19th century was cold and dry. The 19th century advance of Salajekna was probably caused by colder climate in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, coupled with a weakening of the westerly airflow. The investigations on Pårteglaciären show that the glacier has a response time of ~200 years. It also suggests that there was a relatively high frequency of easterly winds providing the glacier with winter precipitation during the 19th century. Glaciers have very different response times and are sensitive to different climatic parameters. Glaciers in rather continental areas of the Subarctic and Arctic can have very long response times because of mass balance considerations and not primarily the glacier dynamics. This is of vital importance for analyzing Arctic and Subarctic glacier behaviour in a global change perspective. It is far from evident that the behaviour of the glacier fronts today reflects the present climate.

How stable are 20th century calibration models? A high-resolution summer temperature reconstruction for the eastern Swiss Alps back to A.D. 1580 derived from proglacial varved sediments

We found a significant positive correlation between local summer air temperature (May-September) and the annual sediment mass accumulation rate (MAR) in Lake Silvaplana (46°N, 9°E, 1800 m a.s.l.) during the twentieth century (r = 0.69, p < 0.001 for decadal smoothed series). Sediment trap data (2001-2005) confirm this relation with exceptionally high particle yields during the hottest summer of the last 140 years in 2003. On this base we developed a decadal-scale summer temperature reconstruction back to AD 1580. Surprisingly, the comparison of our reconstruction with two other independent regional summer temperature reconstructions (based on tree-rings and documentary data) revealed a significant negative correlation for the pre-1900 data (ie, late ‘Little Ice Age’). This demonstrates that the correlation between MAR and summer temperature is not stable in time and the actualistic principle does not apply in this case. We suggest that different climatic regimes (modern/‘Little Ice Age’) lead to changing state conditions in the catchment and thus to considerably different sediment transport mechanisms. Therefore, we calibrated our MAR data with gridded early instrumental temperature series from AD 1760-1880 (r = -0.48, p < 0.01 for decadal smoothed series) to properly reconstruct the late LIA climatic conditions. We found exceptionally low temperatures between AD 1580 and 1610 (0.75°C below twentieth-century mean) and during the late Maunder Minimum from AD 1680 to 1710 (0.5°C below twentieth-century mean). In general, summer temperatures did not experience major negative departures from the twentieth-century mean during the late ‘Little Ice Age’. This compares well with the two existing independent regional reconstructions suggesting that the LIA in the Alps was mainly a phenomenon of the cold season.

Työmies and Pappi: A Critical Look at the Finnish Socialist Federation and the Suomi Synod in Early 20th Century Michigan

At the dawn of the 20th century, the burgeoning influence of the Finnish immigrant socialist-unionist movement collided with the authoritative, conservative nature of the Suomi Synod. While the Synod, headquartered in Hancock, Michigan, was attempting to recreate the Finnish state church in America, the quickly radicalizing immigrant socialist-unionist movement was attempting to convert the masses to a materialist message of class struggle manifested by then current conditions in Michigan’s Copper Country and industrial America. The most persuasive voice of class struggle for immigrant Finns at this time was the Finnish-language newspaper Työmies (The Workingman) published in Hancock. Caustic editorials on religion, critical examinations of Christian orthodoxy in translations of Marx and Kropotkin, and ribald cartoons lampooning members of the Synod clergy and laity all demonstrated the overwrought interactions between Työmies and the Synod. This paper will highlight these tense interactions through analysis of doctrine, ideology, and imagery by delving into the primary historical record to reveal the vast gulf between two of the major institutions in early 20th century Finnish immigrant social life.