Optimal crop planning and conjunctive use of water resources in a coastal river basin

Due to increasing trend of intensive rice cultivation in a coastal river basin, crop planning and groundwater management are imperative for the sustainable agriculture. For effective management, two models have been developed viz. groundwater balance model and optimum cropping and groundwater management model to determine optimum cropping pattern and groundwater allocation from private and government tubewells according to different soil types (saline and non-saline), type of agriculture (rainfed and irrigated) and seasons (monsoon and winter). A groundwater balance model has been developed considering mass balance approach. The components of the groundwater balance considered are recharge from rainfall, irrigated rice and non-rice fields, base flow from rivers and seepage flow from surface drains. In the second phase, a linear programming optimization model is developed for optimal cropping and groundwater management for maximizing the economic returns. The models developed were applied to a portion of coastal river basin in Orissa State, India and optimal cropping pattern for various scenarios of river flow and groundwater availability was obtained.

Regional impacts of climate change on irrigation water demands

This paper presents an approach to model the expected impacts of climate change on irrigation water demand in a reservoir command area. A statistical downscaling model and an evapotranspiration model are used with a general circulation model (GCM) output to predict the anticipated change in the monthly irrigation water requirement of a crop. Specifically, we quantify the likely changes in irrigation water demands at a location in the command area, as a response to the projected changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration at that location. Statistical downscaling with a canonical correlation analysis is carried out to develop the future scenarios of meteorological variables (rainfall, relative humidity (RH), wind speed (U-2), radiation, maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures) starting with simulations provided by a GCM for a specified emission scenario. The medium resolution Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate GCM is used with the A1B scenario, to assess the likely changes in irrigation demands for paddy, sugarcane, permanent garden and semidry crops over the command area of Bhadra reservoir, India. Results from the downscaling model suggest that the monthly rainfall is likely to increase in the reservoir command area. RH, Tmax and Tmin are also projected to increase with small changes in U-2. Consequently, the reference evapotranspiration, modeled by the Penman-Monteith equation, is predicted to increase. The irrigation requirements are assessed on monthly scale at nine selected locations encompassing the Bhadra reservoir command area. The irrigation requirements are projected to increase, in most cases, suggesting that the effect of projected increase in rainfall on the irrigation demands is offset by the effect due to projected increase/change in other meteorological variables (viz., Tmax and Tmin, solar radiation, RH and U-2). The irrigation demand assessment study carried out at a river basin will be useful for future irrigation management systems. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Environmental evaluation of localising production as a strategy for sustainable development: a case study of two consumer goods in Jamaica

The objective of this study was to compare the life-cycle environmental impacts of changed production structures for two consumer goods (high-density polyethylene (HDPE) shopping bags and beds) in Jamaica. A scenario technique was used to construct three alternative production structures for each product; each scenario reflecting an increase in local production in Jamaica which depended on an increased supply of input materials which may be sourced: (1) externally from overseas suppliers, (2) from post-consumer recycling, and (3) locally on the island of Jamaica. These three constructed scenarios were then compared to the existing supply chain or reference scenarios of the products. The results showed that for both case products the recycling scenario was most preferable for localising production, resulting in the lowest environmental impact. This was because the production of raw materials accounted for the largest effect on total environmental impact. As such, the most immediate environmental improvements were realised by lowering the production of virgin materials. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

On-line learning of mutually orthogonal subspaces for face recognition by image sets.

We address the problem of face recognition by matching image sets. Each set of face images is represented by a subspace (or linear manifold) and recognition is carried out by subspace-to-subspace matching. In this paper, 1) a new discriminative method that maximises orthogonality between subspaces is proposed. The method improves the discrimination power of the subspace angle based face recognition method by maximizing the angles between different classes. 2) We propose a method for on-line updating the discriminative subspaces as a mechanism for continuously improving recognition accuracy. 3) A further enhancement called locally orthogonal subspace method is presented to maximise the orthogonality between competing classes. Experiments using 700 face image sets have shown that the proposed method outperforms relevant prior art and effectively boosts its accuracy by online learning. It is shown that the method for online learning delivers the same solution as the batch computation at far lower computational cost and the locally orthogonal method exhibits improved accuracy. We also demonstrate the merit of the proposed face recognition method on portal scenarios of multiple biometric grand challenge.

Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle environmental impacts. The environmental impact assessments were built on Food and Agriculture Organization statistics in terms of production volume of different species, whereas the inputs and outputs associated with aquaculture production systems were sourced from the literature. The matrix of input-output databases was established through the Blue Frontiers study.

Genetic diversity and population history of golden monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana)

Golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), namely the snub-nosed monkey, is a well-known endangered primate, which distributes only in the central part of mainland China. As an effort to understand the current genetic status as well as population history of this species, we collected a sample of 32 individuals from four different regions, which cover the major habitat of this species. Forty-four allozyme loci were surveyed in our study by allozyme electrophoresis, none of which was found to be polymorphic. The void of polymorphism compared with that of other nonhuman primates is surprising particularly considering that the current population size is many times larger than that of some other endangered species. Since many independent loci are surveyed in this Study, the most plausible explanation for our observation is that the population has experienced a recent bottleneck. We used a coalescent approach to explore various scenarios of population bottleneck and concluded that the most recent bottleneck could have happened within the last 15,000 years. Moreover, the proposed simulation approach could be useful to researchers who need to analyze the non- or low-polymorphism data.

Roadmapping an emerging energy technology: An ex-ante examination of dimethyl ether development in China

Technology roadmapping has been used to strategise the development of energy technologies. However, there have been limited roadmapping applications that analyse the emergence of a new energy technology that then forms a new industry and propels broad-based low-carbon economic growth. This paper, therefore, attempts to develop a roadmapping framework by integrating the lifecycle analysis tool, in order to strategise the emergence of dimethyl ether, an alternative energy based on advanced engineering technologies such as carbon capture and storage. This paper compares two scenarios of dimethyl ether vs. diesel and finds that the superiority of dimethyl ether will not arise until 2030, when the complementary engineering technologies become available. This proposed framework can also be generalised to other clean energy industries, and we anticipate our paper will spark inspiration for roadmapping and strategising the 'right' technologies for the growth of Chinese energy industries. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Dynamic behaviors of mode III interfacial crack under a constant loading rate

In an earlier study on intersonic crack propagation, Gao et al. (J. Mech. Phys. Solids 49: 2113-2132, 2001) described molecular dynamics simulations and continuum analysis of the dynamic behaviors of a mode II dominated crack moving along a weak plane under a constant loading rate. The crack was observed to initiate its motion at a critical time after the onset of loading, at which it is rapidly accelerated to the Rayleigh wave speed and propagates at this speed for a finite time interval until an intersonic daughter crack is nucleated at a peak stress at a finite distance ahead of the original crack tip. The present article aims to analyze this behavior for a mode III crack moving along a bi-material interface subject to a constant loading rate. We begin with a crack in an initially stress-free bi-material subject to a steadily increasing stress. The crack initiates its motion at a critical time governed by the Griffith criterion. After crack initiation, two scenarios of crack propagation are investigated: the first one is that the crack moves at a constant subsonic velocity; the second one is that the crack moves at the lower shear wave speed of the two materials. In the first scenario, the shear stress ahead of the crack tip is singular with exponent -1/2, as expected; in the second scenario, the stress singularity vanishes but a peak stress is found to emerge at a distance ahead of the moving crack tip. In the latter case, a daughter crack supersonic with respect to the softer medium can be expected to emerge ahead of the initial crack once the peak stress reaches the cohesive strength of the interface.

Institutional and ecological interplay for successful self-governance of community-based fisheries

The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the role of institutional arrangements and ecological factors that facilitate the emergence and sustainability of successful collective action in small-scale fishing social-ecological systems. Using a modified logistic growth function, we simulate how ecological factors (i.e. carrying capacity) affect small-scale fishing communities with varying degrees of institutional development (i.e. timeliness to adopt new institutions and the degree to which harvesting effort is reduced), in their ability to avoid overexploitation. Our results show that strong and timely institutions are necessary but not sufficient to maintain sustainable harvests over time. The sooner communities adopt institutions, and the stronger the institutions they adopt, the more likely they are to sustain the resource stock. Exactly how timely the institutions must be adopted, and by what amount harvesting effort must be diminished, depends on the ecological carrying capacity of the species at the particular location. Small differences in the carrying capacity between fishing sites, even under scenarios of similar institutional development, greatly affects the likelihood of effective collective action. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs on optimal HPV vaccination strategies.

The effectiveness of vaccinating males against the human papillomavirus (HPV) remains a controversial subject. Many existing studies conclude that increasing female coverage is more effective than diverting resources into male vaccination. Recently, several empirical studies on HPV immunization have been published, providing evidence of the fact that marginal vaccination costs increase with coverage. In this study, we use a stochastic agent-based modeling framework to revisit the male vaccination debate in light of these new findings. Within this framework, we assess the impact of coverage-dependent marginal costs of vaccine distribution on optimal immunization strategies against HPV. Focusing on the two scenarios of ongoing and new vaccination programs, we analyze different resource allocation policies and their effects on overall disease burden. Our results suggest that if the costs associated with vaccinating males are relatively close to those associated with vaccinating females, then coverage-dependent, increasing marginal costs may favor vaccination strategies that entail immunization of both genders. In particular, this study emphasizes the necessity for further empirical research on the nature of coverage-dependent vaccination costs.

A COMPARISON OF MARKET CLEARING TOOLS IN ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS

To maintain a strict balance between demand and supply in the US power systems, the Independent System Operators (ISOs) schedule power plants and determine electricity prices using a market clearing model. This model determines for each time period and power plant, the times of startup, shutdown, the amount of power production, and the provisioning of spinning and non-spinning power generation reserves, etc. Such a deterministic optimization model takes as input the characteristics of all the generating units such as their power generation installed capacity, ramp rates, minimum up and down time requirements, and marginal costs for production, as well as the forecast of intermittent energy such as wind and solar, along with the minimum reserve requirement of the whole system. This reserve requirement is determined based on the likelihood of outages on the supply side and on the levels of error forecasts in demand and intermittent generation. With increased installed capacity of intermittent renewable energy, determining the appropriate level of reserve requirements has become harder. Stochastic market clearing models have been proposed as an alternative to deterministic market clearing models. Rather than using a fixed reserve targets as an input, stochastic market clearing models take different scenarios of wind power into consideration and determine reserves schedule as output. Using a scaled version of the power generation system of PJM, a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia, and wind scenarios generated from BPA (Bonneville Power Administration) data, this paper explores a comparison of the performance between a stochastic and deterministic model in market clearing. The two models are compared in their ability to contribute to the affordability, reliability and sustainability of the electricity system, measured in terms of total operational costs, load shedding and air emissions. The process of building the models and running for tests indicate that a fair comparison is difficult to obtain due to the multi-dimensional performance metrics considered here, and the difficulty in setting up the parameters of the models in a way that does not advantage or disadvantage one modeling framework. Along these lines, this study explores the effect that model assumptions such as reserve requirements, value of lost load (VOLL) and wind spillage costs have on the comparison of the performance of stochastic vs deterministic market clearing models.

Modeling the Effects of Habitat Fragmentation on the Movements of the Mongolian Gazelle in the Eastern Mongolian Steppe

The Mongolian gazelle, Procapra gutturosa, resides in the immense and dynamic ecosystem of the Eastern Mongolian Steppe. The Mongolian Steppe ecosystem dynamics, including vegetation availability, change rapidly and dramatically due to unpredictable precipitation patterns. The Mongolian gazelle has adapted to this unpredictable vegetation availability by making long range nomadic movements. However, predicting these movements is challenging and requires a complex model. An accurate model of gazelle movements is needed, as rampant habitat fragmentation due to human development projects - which inhibit gazelles from obtaining essential resources - increasingly threaten this nomadic species. We created a novel model using an Individual-based Neural Network Genetic Algorithm (ING) to predict how habitat fragmentation affects animal movement, using the Mongolian Steppe as a model ecosystem. We used Global Positioning System (GPS) collar data from real gazelles to “train” our model to emulate characteristic patterns of Mongolian gazelle movement behavior. These patterns are: preferred vegetation resources (NDVI), displacement over certain time lags, and proximity to human areas. With this trained model, we then explored how potential scenarios of habitat fragmentation may affect gazelle movement. This model can be used to predict how fragmentation of the Mongolian Steppe may affect the Mongolian gazelle. In addition, this model is novel in that it can be applied to other ecological scenarios, since we designed it in modules that are easily interchanged.

Modeling the diffusion of solid copper into liquid solder alloys

During the soldering process, the copper atoms diffuse into liquid solders. The diffusion process determines integrity and the reworking possibility of a solder joint. In order to capture the diffusion scenarios of solid copper into liquid Sn–Pb and Sn–Cu solders, a computer modeling has been performed for 10 s. An analytical model has also been proposed for calculating the diffusion coefficient of copper into liquid solders. It is found that the diffusion coefficient for Sn–Pb solder is 2.74 × 10− 10 m2/s and for Sn–Cu solder is 6.44 × 10−9 m2/s. The modeling results reveal that the diffusion coefficient is one of the major factors that govern the rate at which solid Cu dissolve in the molten solder. The predicted dissolved amounts of copper into solders have been validated with the help of scanning electron microscopic analysis.

Collaborative artistic laboratories. Transfrontier spaces of cultural production

The appearance of the open code paradigm and the demands of social movements have permeated the ways in which today’s cultural institutions are organized. This article analyzes the birth of a new critical and cooperative spatiality and how it is transforming current modes of cultural research and production. It centers on the potential for establishing the new means of cooperation that are being tested in what are defined as collaborative artistic laboratories. These are hybrid spaces of research and creation based on networked and cooperative structures producing a new societal-technical body that forces us to reconsider the traditional organic conditions of the productive scenarios of knowledge and artistic practice.