Essays on the Bioeconomics of the Northern Baltic Fisheries

World marine fisheries suffer from economic and biological overfishing: too many vessels are harvesting too few fish stocks. Fisheries economics has explained the causes of overfishing and provided a theoretical background for management systems capable of solving the problem. Yet only a few examples of fisheries managed by the principles of the bioeconomic theory exist. With the aim of bridging the gap between the actual fish stock assessment models used to provide management advice and economic optimisation models, the thesis explores economically sound harvesting from national and international perspectives. Using data calibrated for the Baltic salmon and herring stocks, optimal harvesting policies are outlined using numerical methods. First, the thesis focuses on the socially optimal harvest of a single salmon stock by commercial and recreational fisheries. The results obtained using dynamic programming show that the optimal fishery configuration would be to close down three out of the five studied fisheries. The result is robust to stock size fluctuations. Compared to a base case situation, the optimal fleet structure would yield a slight decrease in the commercial catch, but a recreational catch that is nearly seven times higher. As a result, the expected economic net benefits from the fishery would increase nearly 60%, and the expected number of juvenile salmon (smolt) would increase by 30%. Second, the thesis explores the management of multiple salmon stocks in an international framework. Non-cooperative and cooperative game theory are used to demonstrate different "what if" scenarios. The results of the four player game suggest that, despite the commonly agreed fishing quota, the behaviour of the countries has been closer to non-cooperation than cooperation. Cooperation would more than double the net benefits from the fishery compared to a past fisheries policy. Side payments, however, are a prerequisite for a cooperative solution. Third, the thesis applies coalitional games in the partition function form to study whether the cooperative solution would be stable despite the potential presence of positive externalities. The results show that the cooperation of two out of four studied countries can be stable. Compared to a past fisheries policy, a stable coalition structure would provide substantial economic benefits. Nevertheless, the status of the salmon stocks would not improve significantly. Fourth, the thesis studies the prerequisites for and potential consequences of the implementation of an individual transferable quota (ITQ) system in the Finnish herring fishery. Simulation results suggest that ITQs would result in a decrease in the number of fishing vessels, but enables positive profits to overlap with a higher stock size. The empirical findings of the thesis affirm that the profitability of the studied fisheries could be improved. The evidence, however, indicates that incentives for free riding exist, and thus the most preferable outcome both in economic and biological terms is elusive.

Bayesian fisheries stock assessment: integrating and updating knowledge

In this thesis the use of the Bayesian approach to statistical inference in fisheries stock assessment is studied. The work was conducted in collaboration of the Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute by using the problem of monitoring and prediction of the juvenile salmon population in the River Tornionjoki as an example application. The River Tornionjoki is the largest salmon river flowing into the Baltic Sea. This thesis tackles the issues of model formulation and model checking as well as computational problems related to Bayesian modelling in the context of fisheries stock assessment. Each article of the thesis provides a novel method either for extracting information from data obtained via a particular type of sampling system or for integrating the information about the fish stock from multiple sources in terms of a population dynamics model. Mark-recapture and removal sampling schemes and a random catch sampling method are covered for the estimation of the population size. In addition, a method for estimating the stock composition of a salmon catch based on DNA samples is also presented. For most of the articles, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation has been used as a tool to approximate the posterior distribution. Problems arising from the sampling method are also briefly discussed and potential solutions for these problems are proposed. Special emphasis in the discussion is given to the philosophical foundation of the Bayesian approach in the context of fisheries stock assessment. It is argued that the role of subjective prior knowledge needed in practically all parts of a Bayesian model should be recognized and consequently fully utilised in the process of model formulation.

From the river to the open sea - a critical life phase of young Atlantic salmon migrating from the Simojoki river

Long-term monitoring data collected from wild smolts of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Simojoki river, northern Finland, were used in studying the relationships between the smolt size and age, smolt and postsmolt migration, environmental conditions and postsmolt survival. The onset of the smolt run was significantly dependent on the rising water temperature and decreasing discharge of the river in the spring. The mean length of smolts migrating early in the season was commonly higher and the mean age always older than among smolts migrating later. Many of the smolts migrating early in the season and almost all smolts migrating later had started their new growth in spring in the river before their sea entry. Among postsmolts, the time required for emigration from the estuary was dependent on the sea surface temperature (SST) off the river, being significantly shorter in years with warm than cold sea temperatures. After leaving the estuary, the postsmolts migrated southwards along the eastern coast of the northern Gulf of Bothnia, the geographical distribution of the tag recoveries coinciding with the warm thermal zone in spring in the coastal area. After arriving in the southern Gulf of Bothnia in late summer the postsmolts mostly migrated near the western coast, reaching the Baltic Main Basin in late autumn. Until the early 1990s there was only a weak positive association between smolt length and postsmolt survival. However, following a subsequent decrease in the mean smolt size, a significant positive dependence was observed between smolt size and the reported recapture rate of tagged salmon. The differences in recapture rates between smolts tagged during the first and second half of the annual migration season were insignificant, indicating that the seasonal variation in smolt size and age seem to be too small to affect survival. Among the climatic factors examined, the summer SST in the Gulf of Bothnia was most clearly related to the survival of the wild postsmolts. Postsmolt survival appeared to be highest in years when the SST in June in the Bothnian Bay varied between 9 and 12 ºC. In addition, the survival of wild postsmolts showed a significant positive dependence on the SST in July in the Bothnian Sea, but not on the abundance of the prey fish (0+ herring, Clupea harengus and sprat, Sprattus sprattus) in the Bothnian Sea and in the Baltic Main Basin. The results suggest, that if the incidence of extreme weather conditions were to increase due to climatic changes, it would probably reduce the postsmolt survival of wild salmon populations. For improving the performance of hatchery-reared smolts, it could be useful to examine opportunities to produce smolts that are in their smolt traits and abilities more similar to the wild smolts described in this thesis.

Conservation of Atlantic salmon by supplementary stocking of juvenile fish

Wild salmon stocks in the northern Baltic rivers became endangered in the second half of the 20th century, mainly due to recruitment overfishing. As a result, supplementary stocking was widely practised, and supplementation of the Tornionjoki salmon stock took place over a 25 year period until 2002. The stock has been closely monitored by electrofishing, smolt trapping, mark-recapture studies, catch samples and catch surveys. Background information on hatchery-reared stocked juveniles was also collected for this study. Bayesian statistics was applied to the data as this method offers the possibility of bringing prior information into the analysis and an advanced ability for incorporating uncertainty, and also provides probabilities for a multitude of hypotheses. Substantial divergences between reared and wild Tornionjoki salmon were identified in both demographic and phenological characteristics. The divergences tended to be larger the longer the duration spent in hatchery and the more favourable the hatchery conditions were for fast growth. Differences in environment likely induced most of the divergences, but selection of brood fish might have resulted in genotypic divergence in maturation age of reared salmon. Survival of stocked 1-year old juveniles to smolt varied from about 10% to about 25%. Stocking on the lower reach of the river seemed to decrease survival, and the negative effect of stocking volume on survival raises the concern of possible similar effects on the extant wild population. Post-smolt survival of wild Tornionjoki smolts was on average two times higher than that of smolts stocked as parr and 2.5 times higher than that of stocked smolts. Smolts of different groups showed synchronous variation and similar long-term survival trends. Both groups of reared salmon were more vulnerable to offshore driftnet and coastal trapnet fishing than wild salmon. Average survival from smolt to spawners of wild salmon was 2.8 times higher than that of salmon stocked as parr and 3.3 times higher than that of salmon stocked as smolts. Wild salmon and salmon stocked as parr were found to have similar lifetime survival rates, while stocked smolts have a lifetime survival rate over 4 times higher than the two other groups. If eggs are collected from the wild brood fish, stocking parr would therefore not be a sensible option. Stocking smolts instead would create a net benefit in terms of the number of spawners, but this strategy has serious drawbacks and risks associated with the larger phenotypic and demographic divergences from wild salmon. Supplementation was shown not to be the key factor behind the recovery of the Tornionjoki and other northern Baltic salmon stocks. Instead, a combination of restrictions in the sea fishery and simultaneous occurrence of favourable natural conditions for survival were the main reasons for the revival in the 1990 s. This study questions the effectiveness of supplementation as a conservation management tool. The benefits of supplementation seem at best limited. Relatively high occurrences of reared fish in catches may generate false optimism concerning the effects of supplementation. Supplementation may lead to genetic risks due to problems in brood fish collection and artificial rearing with relaxed natural selection and domestication. Appropriate management of fisheries is the main alternative to supplementation, without which all other efforts for long-term maintenance of a healthy fish resource fail.

Environmental factors and uncertainty in fisheries management in the northern Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is a geologically young, large brackish water basin, and few of the species living there have fully adapted to its special conditions. Many of the species live on the edge of their distribution range in terms of one or more environmental variables such as salinity or temperature. Environmental fluctuations are know to cause fluctuations in populations abundance, and this effect is especially strong near the edges of the distribution range, where even small changes in an environmental variable can be critical to the success of a species. This thesis examines which environmental factors are the most important in relation to the success of various commercially exploited fish species in the northern Baltic Sea. It also examines the uncertainties related to fish stocks current and potential status as well as to their relationship with their environment. The aim is to quantify the uncertainties related to fisheries and environmental management, to find potential management strategies that can be used to reduce uncertainty in management results and to develop methodology related to uncertainty estimation in natural resources management. Bayesian statistical methods are utilized due to their ability to treat uncertainty explicitly in all parts of the statistical model. The results show that uncertainty about important parameters of even the most intensively studied fish species such as salmon (Salmo salar L.) and Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras L.) is large. On the other hand, management approaches that reduce uncertainty can be found. These include utilising information about ecological similarity of fish stocks and species, and using management variables that are directly related to stock parameters that can be measured easily and without extrapolations or assumptions.

Chinook salmon spawner stocks in California's Central Valley, 1989: annual report

This report covers the 37th annual inventory of chinook salman, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, spawner populations in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River system.-It is a compilation of reports estimating the fall-, winter-, late-fall-, and spring-run salmon spawner populations for streams which were surveyed. Estimates were made from counts of fish entering hatcheries and migrating past dams, froro surveys of dead and live fish and redds on spawning areas, and from aerial counts. The estimated 1989 total escapement of chinook salmon in the Central Valley was 205,990 fish. This total consisted of 181,864 fall-, 12,171 spring-, 539 winter-, and 11,416 late-fall-run spawners. All of the spring-, late-fall-, and winter-run salmon were estimated to be in the Sacramento River system, while 3,493 fish of the fall run were in the San Joaquin River system. Due to decreases of spawner populations in most Central Valley tributaries, the total 1989 salmon stock was 32% lower than in 1988; however, late-fall salmon in the upper Sacramento River had a run size similar to that of 1988. The winter run in the mainstem Sacramento River was at a record low level. (PDF contains 44 pages.)

Stock Composition of Some Sockeye Salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, Catches in Southeast Alaska, Based on Incidence of Allozyme Variants, Freshwater Ages, and a Brain-Tissue Parasite

The incidence of four discrete characters of individual sockeye salmon -two genetically inherited proteins (PGM-1*and PGM-2*), freshwater age at migration, and the presence of the brain-tissue parasite Myxobolus arcticus-in weekly samples from two Alaskan fisheries (Noyes Island in 1986 and Sumner Strait in 1987) were used to infer stock composition of the catches based on corresponding character samples from 73 Alaskan and Canadian stocks. Estimated contributions of 13 stock groups, formed on the basis of character similarity of their members, were roughly consistent with expectations from tagging experiments, knowledge of stock magnitudes, and similar assessments from scales. Imprecision of the estimated contributions by the 13 stock groups limited their practical value; but variability was much reduced for combined estimated contributions by two inclusive categories, namely stock groups whose members had either high or low brainparasite prevalence. Noyes Island catches consisted predominantly of unparasitized fish, most of which were probably of Canadian origin. The majority of Sumner Strait catches consisted of parasitized fish, whose freshwater origins may have been in Alaska or Canada. (PDF file contains 27 pages.)

Proceedings of the Eleventh U.S.-Japan Meeting on Aquaculture, Salmon Enhancement, Tokyo, Japan, October 19-20, 1982

The United States and Japanese counterpart panels on aquaculture were formed in 1969 under the United States-Japan Cooperative Program in Natural Resources (UJNR). The panels currently include specialists drawn from the federal departments most concerned with aquaculture. Charged with exploring and developing bilateral cooperation, the panels have focused their efforts on exchanging information related to aquaculture which could be of benefit to both countries. The UJNR was started by a proposal made during the Third Cabinet-Level Meeting of the Joint United States-Japan Committee on Trade and Economic Affairs in January 1964. In addition to aquaculture, current subjects in the program are desalination of seawater, toxic microorganisms, air pollution, energy, forage crops, national park management, mycoplasmosis, wind and seismic effects, protein resources, forestry, and several joint panels and committees in marine resources research, development, and utilization. Accomplishments include: Increased communications and cooperation among technical specialists; exchanges of information, data, and research findings; annual meetings of the panels, a policy coordinative body; administrative staff meetings; exchanges of equipment, materials, and samples; several major technical conferences; and beneficial effects on international relations. (PDF file contains 108 pages.)

Evaluation of salmon and steelhead spawning habitat quality in the South Fork Trinity River Basin, 1997

Sediment sampling was used to evaluate chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and steelhead (O. mykiss) spawning habitat quality in the South Fork Trinity River (SFTR) basin. Sediment samples were collected using a McNeil-type sampler and wet sieved through a series of Tyler screens (25.00 mm, 12.50 mm, 6.30 mm, 3.35 mm, 1.00 mm, and 0.85 mm). Fines (particles < 0.85 mm) were determined after a l0-minute settling period in Imhoff cones. Thirteen stations were sampled in the SFTR basin: five stations were located in mainstem SFTR between rk 2.1 and 118.5, 2 stations each were located in EF of the SFTR, Grouse Creek, and Madden Creek, and one station each was located in Eltapom and Hayfork Creeks. Sample means for fines(particles < 0.85 mm) fer SFTR stations ranged between 14.4 and 19.4%; tributary station sample mean fines ranged between 3.4 and 19.4%. Decreased egg survival would be expected at 4 of 5 mainstem SFTR stations and at one station in EF of SFTR and Grouse Creek where fines content exceed 15%. Small gravel/sand content measured at all stations were high, and exceed levels associated with reduced sac fry emergence rates. Reduction of egg survival or sac fry emergence due to sedimentation in spawning gravels could lead to reduced juvenile production from the South Fork Trinity River. (PDF contains 18 pages.)

Cooperative artificial propagation programs for salmon and steelhead, 1995-1996

Fifteen cooperative fish rearing and planting programs for salmon and steelhead were active from July 1, 1995 through June 30, 1996. For all programs, 134,213 steelhead trout,(Oncorhynchus mykiss), 7,742,577 chinook salmon,(~ tshawytscha),and 25,075 coho salmon(~ kisutch) were planted. (PDF contains 26 pages.)

Cooperative artificial propagation programs for salmon and steelhead, 1996-1997

Fourteen cooperative fish rearing and planting programs for salmon and steelhead were active from July 1, 1996 through June 30, 1997. For all programs, 208,922 steelhead trout, (Oncorhynchus mykiss), 10,334,457 chinook salmon,(O. tshawytscha),and 60,681 coho salmon(O. kisutch) were planted. (PDF contains 24 pages.)

Annual report chinook salmon spawner stocks in California's central valley, 1991

This report covers the 39th annual inventory of chinook salman, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, spawner populations in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River system." It is a compilation of reports estimating the fall-, winter-, late-fall-, and spring-run salman spawner populatiens fer streams which were surveyed. Estimates were made from counts of fish entering hatcheries and migrating past dams, from surveys of dead and live fish and redds on spawning areas, and from aerial counts. The estimated 1991 total escapement of chinook salmon in the Central Valley was 147,080 fish. This total consisted of 132,571 fall-, 5,921 spring-, 190 winter-, and 8,398 late-fall-run spawners. All of the spring-, late-fall-, and winter-run salmon were estimated to be in the Sacramento River system, while 1,176 fish of the fall run were in the San Joaquin River system. Spawner populations in all individual tributaries (except the American River) and the Sacramento River mainstem were lower than in 1990; but it should be noted that fall run populations in the Feather and Yuba rivers, two of the larger tributaries, were not surveyed that year. The winter run in the mainstem Sacramento River was at a record low level. (PDF contains 42 pages.)

Workshop on climate change and salmon production, Vancouver, March 26-27, 1998: technical report

The Workshop on Climate Change and Salmon Production was held in Vancouver, Canada, 26-27 March 1998. The Workshop was organized and sponsored by the North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC). Each Party to the Commission designated one scientist to the Workshop Steering Committee. Each member of the Steering Committee chaired one half-day session of the Workshop. All necessary arrangements were made by the NPAFC Secretariat in cooperation with the Steering Committee and the Canadian Party to the Commission. (PDF contains 60 pages) Over 70 scientists, industry representatives and fisheries officials attended the Workshop. There were 20 presentations of scientific papers followed by the discussion sessions. Extended abstracts are included in this Technical Report, which also contains opening address by the Chairman of the Steering Committee and short review of the Workshop by the Coordinator. The material presented in the Technical Report has not been peer reviewed and does not necessarily reflect the views of either the NPAFC or the Parties. The material has been edited by the technical editor for clarity and publication purposes only. Items in this Report should not be cited except as personal communication and with the author's permission.