Chemical abundance analysis of the Be star HD 171054

In this work the results of a spectroscopic study of the southern field narrow-line Be star HD 171054 are presented. High dispersion and signal-to-noise ratio spectra allowed the estimation of the fundamental photospheric parameters such as the projected rotational velocity, effective temperature and superficial gravity from non-LTE stellar atmosphere models. From these parameters and microturbulence, the abundances of He, C, N, O, Mg, Al and Si for this object are estimated. Results show that C is depleted whereas N is overabundant compared with the sun and OB stars in the solar vicinity. Oxygen and helium are close to the solar value. Magnesium is down by 0.43 dex and aluminium and silicon are overabundant. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lítio e rotação nas estrelas análogas solares: análise teórica das observações

The projected rotational velocity together with lithium abundance and the onset of the dilution by the deepening in mass of the convective envelope provide a key tool to investigate the so far poorly understood processes at work in stellar interiors of solar-analog stars. To investigate the link between abundances, convection and rotational velocities in solar-analog G dwarf stars, we study a bona fide sample of 118 selected solar-analog G dwarf stars presenting measured lithium abundances, rotational velocities, and fundamental parameters together with computed evolutionary tracks (Toulouse-Geneva code) for a range of stellar masses around 1 M and metallicity consistent with the solar-analog range. The aim of this work is to build up an evolution of lithium and rotation as a function of stellar age, mass, effective temperature, and convection. We analyze the evolutionary status of the sample of 118 solar-analog G dwarf in the HR diagram based on Hipparcos data and using a grid of stellar models in the effective temperature and mass range of the solar-analog stars. We discuss the deepening (in mass) of the convective envelope and the influence on the Li abundances and projected rotational velocities. We determined the stellar mass and the mass of the convective envelope for a bona fide sample of 118 selected solar-analog G dwarf and checked the evolutionary link between the rotational velocity, lithium abundance, and the deepening of the convective envelope. Fast rotators (vsini 6 km s��1) are also stars with high Li content. Slow rotators present a wide range of values of log n(Li). Our results shed new light on the lithium and rotational behavior in G dwarf stars. We confirmed the presence of a large Li abundance spread among the solar-analog stars and concluded that the solar twins probably share a similar mixing history with the Sun

The 6dF Galaxy Survey: stellar population trends across and through the Fundamental Plane

We present results from an analysis of stellar population parameters for 7132 galaxies in the 6dF Galaxy Survey Fundamental Plane (FP) sample. We bin the galaxies along the axes, v1, v2 and v3, of the tri-variate Gaussian to which we have fitted the galaxy distribution in effective radius, surface brightness and central velocity dispersion (FP space), and compute median values of stellar age, [Fe/H], [Z/H] and [a/Fe]. We determine the directions of the vectors in FP space along which each of the binned stellar population parameters vary most strongly. In contrast to previous work, we find stellar population trends not just with velocity dispersion and FP residual, but with radius and surface brightness as well. The most remarkable finding is that the stellar population parameters vary through the plane (v1 direction) and across the plane (v3 direction), but show no variation at all along the plane (v2 direction). The v2 direction in FP space roughly corresponds to luminosity density. We interpret a galaxys position along this vector as being closely tied to its merger history, such that early-type galaxies with lower luminosity density are more likely to have undergone major mergers. This conclusion is reinforced by an examination of the simulations of Kobayashi, which show clear trends of merger history with v2.

A galaxy model from Two Micron All Sky Survey star counts in the whole sky, including the plane

We use the star count model of Ortiz & Lépine to perform an unprecedented exploration of the most important Galactic parameters comparing the predicted counts with the Two Micron All Sky Survey observed star counts in the J, H, and KS bands for a grid of positions covering the whole sky. The comparison is made using a grid of lines of sight given by the HEALPix pixelization scheme. The resulting best-fit values for the parameters are: 2120 ± 200 pc for the radial scale length and 205 ± 40 pc for the scale height of the thin disk, with a central hole of 2070$_{-800}^{+2000}$ pc for the same disk, 3050 ± 500 pc for the radial scale length and 640 ± 70 pc for the scale height of the thick disk, 400 ± 100 pc for the central dimension of the spheroid, 0.0082 ± 0.0030 for the spheroid to disk density ratio, and 0.57 ± 0.05 for the oblate spheroid parameter.

A galaxy model from Two Micron All Sky Survey star counts in the whole sky, including the plane

We use the star count model of Ortiz & L´epine to perform an unprecedented exploration of the most important Galactic parameters comparing the predicted counts with the Two Micron All Sky Survey observed star counts in the J, H, and KS bands for a grid of positions covering the whole sky. The comparison is made using a grid of lines of sight given by the HEALPix pixelization scheme. The resulting best-fit values for the parameters are: 2120 ± 200 pc for the radial scale length and 205 ± 40 pc for the scale height of the thin disk, with a central hole of 2070+2000 −800 pc for the same disk, 3050 ± 500 pc for the radial scale length and 640 ± 70 pc for the scale height of the thick disk, 400 ± 100 pc for the central dimension of the spheroid, 0.0082 ± 0.0030 for the spheroid to disk density ratio, and 0.57 ± 0.05 for the oblate spheroid parameter.

Substructuring approache in state space models for dynamic system parameters identification

In the recent decade, the request for structural health monitoring expertise increased exponentially in the United States. The aging issues that most of the transportation structures are experiencing can put in serious jeopardy the economic system of a region as well as of a country. At the same time, the monitoring of structures is a central topic of discussion in Europe, where the preservation of historical buildings has been addressed over the last four centuries. More recently, various concerns arose about security performance of civil structures after tragic events such the 9/11 or the 2011 Japan earthquake: engineers looks for a design able to resist exceptional loadings due to earthquakes, hurricanes and terrorist attacks. After events of such a kind, the assessment of the remaining life of the structure is at least as important as the initial performance design. Consequently, it appears very clear that the introduction of reliable and accessible damage assessment techniques is crucial for the localization of issues and for a correct and immediate rehabilitation. The System Identification is a branch of the more general Control Theory. In Civil Engineering, this field addresses the techniques needed to find mechanical characteristics as the stiffness or the mass starting from the signals captured by sensors. The objective of the Dynamic Structural Identification (DSI) is to define, starting from experimental measurements, the modal fundamental parameters of a generic structure in order to characterize, via a mathematical model, the dynamic behavior. The knowledge of these parameters is helpful in the Model Updating procedure, that permits to define corrected theoretical models through experimental validation. The main aim of this technique is to minimize the differences between the theoretical model results and in situ measurements of dynamic data. Therefore, the new model becomes a very effective control practice when it comes to rehabilitation of structures or damage assessment. The instrumentation of a whole structure is an unfeasible procedure sometimes because of the high cost involved or, sometimes, because it’s not possible to physically reach each point of the structure. Therefore, numerous scholars have been trying to address this problem. In general two are the main involved methods. Since the limited number of sensors, in a first case, it’s possible to gather time histories only for some locations, then to move the instruments to another location and replay the procedure. Otherwise, if the number of sensors is enough and the structure does not present a complicate geometry, it’s usually sufficient to detect only the principal first modes. This two problems are well presented in the works of Balsamo [1] for the application to a simple system and Jun [2] for the analysis of system with a limited number of sensors. Once the system identification has been carried, it is possible to access the actual system characteristics. A frequent practice is to create an updated FEM model and assess whether the structure fulfills or not the requested functions. Once again the objective of this work is to present a general methodology to analyze big structure using a limited number of instrumentation and at the same time, obtaining the most information about an identified structure without recalling methodologies of difficult interpretation. A general framework of the state space identification procedure via OKID/ERA algorithm is developed and implemented in Matlab. Then, some simple examples are proposed to highlight the principal characteristics and advantage of this methodology. A new algebraic manipulation for a prolific use of substructuring results is developed and implemented.

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets XXXVII. Five new long-period giant planets and a system update

We describe radial-velocity time series obtained by HARPS on the 3.60 m telescope in La Silla (ESO, Chile) over ten years and report the discovery of five new giant exoplanets in distant orbits; these new planets orbit the stars HD 564, HD 30669, HD 108341, and BD -114672. Their periods range from 492 to 1684 days, semi-major axes range from 1.2 to 2.69 AU, and eccentricities range from 0 to 0.85. Their minimum mass ranges from 0.33 to 3.5 MJup. We also refine the parameters of two planets announced previously around HD 113538, based on a longer series of measurements. The planets have a period of 663 ± 8 and 1818 ± 25 days, orbital eccentricities of 0.14 ± 0.08 and 0.20 ± 0.04, and minimum masses of 0.36 ± 0.04 and 0.93 ± 0.06 MJup. Finally, we report the discovery of a new hot-Jupiter planet around an active star, HD 103720; the planet has a period of 4.5557 ± 0.0001 days and a minimum mass of 0.62 ± 0.025 MJup. We discuss the fundamental parameters of these systems and limitations due to stellar activity in quiet stars with typical 2 m s-1 radial velocity precision.

X-parameters based analytical design of non-linear microwave circuits Application to oscillator design

Resumen El diseño clásico de circuitos de microondas se basa fundamentalmente en el uso de los parámetros s, debido a su capacidad para caracterizar de forma exitosa el comportamiento de cualquier circuito lineal. La relación existente entre los parámetros s con los sistemas de medida actuales y con las herramientas de simulación lineal han facilitado su éxito y su uso extensivo tanto en el diseño como en la caracterización de circuitos y subsistemas de microondas. Sin embargo, a pesar de la gran aceptación de los parámetros s en la comunidad de microondas, el principal inconveniente de esta formulación reside en su limitación para predecir el comportamiento de sistemas no lineales reales. En la actualidad, uno de los principales retos de los diseñadores de microondas es el desarrollo de un contexto análogo que permita integrar tanto el modelado no lineal, como los sistemas de medidas de gran señal y los entornos de simulación no lineal, con el objetivo de extender las capacidades de los parámetros s a regímenes de operación en gran señal y por tanto, obtener una infraestructura que permita tanto la caracterización como el diseño de circuitos no lineales de forma fiable y eficiente. De acuerdo a esta filosofía, en los últimos años se han desarrollado diferentes propuestas como los parámetros X, de Agilent Technologies, o el modelo de Cardiff que tratan de proporcionar esta plataforma común en el ámbito de gran señal. Dentro de este contexto, uno de los objetivos de la presente Tesis es el análisis de la viabilidad del uso de los parámetros X en el diseño y simulación de osciladores para transceptores de microondas. Otro aspecto relevante en el análisis y diseño de circuitos lineales de microondas es la disposición de métodos analíticos sencillos, basados en los parámetros s del transistor, que permitan la obtención directa y rápida de las impedancias de carga y fuente necesarias para cumplir las especificaciones de diseño requeridas en cuanto a ganancia, potencia de salida, eficiencia o adaptación de entrada y salida, así como la determinación analítica de parámetros de diseño clave como el factor de estabilidad o los contornos de ganancia de potencia. Por lo tanto, el desarrollo de una formulación de diseño analítico, basada en los parámetros X y similar a la existente en pequeña señal, permitiría su uso en aplicaciones no lineales y supone un nuevo reto que se va a afrontar en este trabajo. Por tanto, el principal objetivo de la presente Tesis consistiría en la elaboración de una metodología analítica basada en el uso de los parámetros X para el diseño de circuitos no lineales que jugaría un papel similar al que juegan los parámetros s en el diseño de circuitos lineales de microondas. Dichos métodos de diseño analíticos permitirían una mejora significativa en los actuales procedimientos de diseño disponibles en gran señal, así como una reducción considerable en el tiempo de diseño, lo que permitiría la obtención de técnicas mucho más eficientes. Abstract In linear world, classical microwave circuit design relies on the s-parameters due to its capability to successfully characterize the behavior of any linear circuit. Thus the direct use of s-parameters in measurement systems and in linear simulation analysis tools, has facilitated its extensive use and success in the design and characterization of microwave circuits and subsystems. Nevertheless, despite the great success of s-parameters in the microwave community, the main drawback of this formulation is its limitation in the behavior prediction of real non-linear systems. Nowadays, the challenge of microwave designers is the development of an analogue framework that allows to integrate non-linear modeling, large-signal measurement hardware and non-linear simulation environment in order to extend s-parameters capabilities to non-linear regimen and thus, provide the infrastructure for non-linear design and test in a reliable and efficient way. Recently, different attempts with the aim to provide this common platform have been introduced, as the Cardiff approach and the Agilent X-parameters. Hence, this Thesis aims to demonstrate the X-parameter capability to provide this non-linear design and test framework in CAD-based oscillator context. Furthermore, the classical analysis and design of linear microwave transistorbased circuits is based on the development of simple analytical approaches, involving the transistor s-parameters, that are able to quickly provide an analytical solution for the input/output transistor loading conditions as well as analytically determine fundamental parameters as the stability factor, the power gain contours or the input/ output match. Hence, the development of similar analytical design tools that are able to extend s-parameters capabilities in small-signal design to non-linear ap- v plications means a new challenge that is going to be faced in the present work. Therefore, the development of an analytical design framework, based on loadindependent X-parameters, constitutes the core of this Thesis. These analytical nonlinear design approaches would enable to significantly improve current large-signal design processes as well as dramatically decrease the required design time and thus, obtain more efficient approaches.

An accurate distance scale to the extremely massive cluster Stephenson 2

Discoveries during the last two years have revealed the existence of a vast region of star formation close to the base of the Scutum Arm, where at least five clusters of red supergiants have been found. In order to understand the nature of this region, we need to determine accurate distances to the clusters. We present here the first results of an ongoing program to derive fundamental parameters (such as age, distance, etc.) to the massive cluster Stephenson 2 studying for the first time its main sequence stars.

The Gaia-ESO Survey: processing FLAMES-UVES spectra

The Gaia-ESO Survey is a large public spectroscopic survey that aims to derive radial velocities and fundamental parameters of about 105 Milky Way stars in the field and in clusters. Observations are carried out with the multi-object optical spectrograph FLAMES, using simultaneously the medium-resolution (R ~ 20 000) GIRAFFE spectrograph and the high-resolution (R ~ 47 000) UVES spectrograph. In this paper we describe the methods and the software used for the data reduction, the derivation of the radial velocities, and the quality control of the FLAMES-UVES spectra. Data reduction has been performed using a workflow specifically developed for this project. This workflow runs the ESO public pipeline optimizing the data reduction for the Gaia-ESO Survey, automatically performs sky subtraction, barycentric correction and normalisation, and calculates radial velocities and a first guess of the rotational velocities. The quality control is performed using the output parameters from the ESO pipeline, by a visual inspection of the spectra and by the analysis of the signal-to-noise ratio of the spectra. Using the observations of the first 18 months, specifically targets observed multiple times at different epochs, stars observed with both GIRAFFE and UVES, and observations of radial velocity standards, we estimated the precision and the accuracy of the radial velocities. The statistical error on the radial velocities is σ ~ 0.4 km s-1 and is mainly due to uncertainties in the zero point of the wavelength calibration. However, we found a systematic bias with respect to the GIRAFFE spectra (~0.9 km s-1) and to the radial velocities of the standard stars (~0.5 km s-1) retrieved from the literature. This bias will be corrected in the future data releases, when a common zero point for all the set-ups and instruments used for the survey is be established.

Exploitation du potentiel sismique des étoiles naines blanches

Le but de cette thèse est d’explorer le potentiel sismique des étoiles naines blanches pulsantes, et en particulier celles à atmosphères riches en hydrogène, les étoiles ZZ Ceti. La technique d’astérosismologie exploite l’information contenue dans les modes normaux de vibration qui peuvent être excités lors de phases particulières de l’évolution d’une étoile. Ces modes modulent le flux émergent de l’étoile pulsante et se manifestent principalement en termes de variations lumineuses multi-périodiques. L’astérosismologie consiste donc à examiner la luminosité d’étoiles pulsantes en fonction du temps, afin d’en extraire les périodes, les amplitudes apparentes, ainsi que les phases relatives des modes de pulsation détectés, en utilisant des méthodes standards de traitement de signal, telles que des techniques de Fourier. L’étape suivante consiste à comparer les périodes de pulsation observées avec des périodes générées par un modèle stellaire en cherchant l’accord optimal avec un modèle physique reconstituant le plus fidèlement possible l’étoile pulsante. Afin d’assurer une recherche optimale dans l’espace des paramètres, il est nécessaire d’avoir de bons modèles physiques, un algorithme d’optimisation de comparaison de périodes efficace, et une puissance de calcul considérable. Les périodes des modes de pulsation de modèles stellaires de naines blanches peuvent être généralement calculées de manière précise et fiable sur la base de la théorie linéaire des pulsations stellaires dans sa version adiabatique. Afin de définir dans son ensemble un modèle statique de naine blanche propre à l’analyse astérosismologique, il est nécessaire de spécifier la gravité de surface, la température effective, ainsi que différents paramètres décrivant la disposition en couche de l’enveloppe. En utilisant parallèlement les informations obtenues de manière indépendante (température effective et gravité de surface) par la méthode spectroscopique, il devient possible de vérifier la validité de la solution obtenue et de restreindre de manière remarquable l’espace des paramètres. L’exercice astérosismologique, s’il est réussi, mène donc à la détermination précise des paramètres de la structure globale de l’étoile pulsante et fournit de l’information unique sur sa structure interne et l’état de sa phase évolutive. On présente dans cette thèse l’analyse complète réussie, de l’extraction des fréquences à la solution sismique, de quatre étoiles naines blanches pulsantes. Il a été possible de déterminer les paramètres structuraux de ces étoiles et de les comparer remarquablement à toutes les contraintes indépendantes disponibles dans la littérature, mais aussi d’inférer sur la dynamique interne et de reconstruire le profil de rotation interne. Dans un premier temps, on analyse le duo d’étoiles ZZ Ceti, GD 165 et Ross 548, afin de comprendre les différences entre leurs propriétés de pulsation, malgré le fait qu’elles soient des étoiles similaires en tout point, spectroscopiquement parlant. L’analyse sismique révèle des structures internes différentes, et dévoile la sensibilité de certains modes de pulsation à la composition interne du noyau de l’étoile. Afin de palier à cette sensibilité, nouvellement découverte, et de rivaliser avec les données de qualité exceptionnelle que nous fournissent les missions spatiales Kepler et Kepler2, on développe une nouvelle paramétrisation des profils chimiques dans le coeur, et on valide la robustesse de notre technique et de nos modèles par de nombreux tests. Avec en main la nouvelle paramétrisation du noyau, on décroche enfin le ”Saint Graal” de l’astérosismologie, en étant capable de reproduire pour la première fois les périodes observées à la précision des observations, dans le cas de l’étude sismique des étoiles KIC 08626021 et de GD 1212.

The HARPS-N Rocky Planet Search. I. HD 219134 b: A transiting rocky planet in a multi-planet system at 6.5 pc from the Sun

We know now from radial velocity surveys and transit space missions thatplanets only a few times more massive than our Earth are frequent aroundsolar-type stars. Fundamental questions about their formation history,physical properties, internal structure, and atmosphere composition are,however, still to be solved. We present here the detection of a systemof four low-mass planets around the bright (V = 5.5) and close-by (6.5pc) star HD 219134. This is the first result of the Rocky Planet Searchprogramme with HARPS-N on the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo in La Palma.The inner planet orbits the star in 3.0935 ± 0.0003 days, on aquasi-circular orbit with a semi-major axis of 0.0382 ± 0.0003AU. Spitzer observations allowed us to detect the transit of the planetin front of the star making HD 219134 b the nearest known transitingplanet to date. From the amplitude of the radial velocity variation(2.25 ± 0.22 ms-1) and observed depth of the transit(359 ± 38 ppm), the planet mass and radius are estimated to be4.36 ± 0.44 M⊕ and 1.606 ± 0.086R⊕, leading to a mean density of 5.76 ± 1.09 gcm-3, suggesting a rocky composition. One additional planetwith minimum-mass of 2.78 ± 0.65 M⊕ moves on aclose-in, quasi-circular orbit with a period of 6.767 ± 0.004days. The third planet in the system has a period of 46.66 ± 0.08days and a minimum-mass of 8.94 ± 1.13 M⊕, at0.233 ± 0.002 AU from the star. Its eccentricity is 0.46 ±0.11. The period of this planet is close to the rotational period of thestar estimated from variations of activity indicators (42.3 ± 0.1days). The planetary origin of the signal is, however, thepreferredsolution as no indication of variation at the corresponding frequency isobserved for activity-sensitive parameters. Finally, a fourth additionallonger-period planet of mass of 71 M⊕ orbits the starin 1842 days, on an eccentric orbit (e = 0.34 ± 0.17) at adistance of 2.56 AU.The photometric time series and radial velocities used in this work areavailable in electronic form at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr(ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/584/A72

Exploitation du potentiel sismique des étoiles naines blanches

Le but de cette thèse est d’explorer le potentiel sismique des étoiles naines blanches pulsantes, et en particulier celles à atmosphères riches en hydrogène, les étoiles ZZ Ceti. La technique d’astérosismologie exploite l’information contenue dans les modes normaux de vibration qui peuvent être excités lors de phases particulières de l’évolution d’une étoile. Ces modes modulent le flux émergent de l’étoile pulsante et se manifestent principalement en termes de variations lumineuses multi-périodiques. L’astérosismologie consiste donc à examiner la luminosité d’étoiles pulsantes en fonction du temps, afin d’en extraire les périodes, les amplitudes apparentes, ainsi que les phases relatives des modes de pulsation détectés, en utilisant des méthodes standards de traitement de signal, telles que des techniques de Fourier. L’étape suivante consiste à comparer les périodes de pulsation observées avec des périodes générées par un modèle stellaire en cherchant l’accord optimal avec un modèle physique reconstituant le plus fidèlement possible l’étoile pulsante. Afin d’assurer une recherche optimale dans l’espace des paramètres, il est nécessaire d’avoir de bons modèles physiques, un algorithme d’optimisation de comparaison de périodes efficace, et une puissance de calcul considérable. Les périodes des modes de pulsation de modèles stellaires de naines blanches peuvent être généralement calculées de manière précise et fiable sur la base de la théorie linéaire des pulsations stellaires dans sa version adiabatique. Afin de définir dans son ensemble un modèle statique de naine blanche propre à l’analyse astérosismologique, il est nécessaire de spécifier la gravité de surface, la température effective, ainsi que différents paramètres décrivant la disposition en couche de l’enveloppe. En utilisant parallèlement les informations obtenues de manière indépendante (température effective et gravité de surface) par la méthode spectroscopique, il devient possible de vérifier la validité de la solution obtenue et de restreindre de manière remarquable l’espace des paramètres. L’exercice astérosismologique, s’il est réussi, mène donc à la détermination précise des paramètres de la structure globale de l’étoile pulsante et fournit de l’information unique sur sa structure interne et l’état de sa phase évolutive. On présente dans cette thèse l’analyse complète réussie, de l’extraction des fréquences à la solution sismique, de quatre étoiles naines blanches pulsantes. Il a été possible de déterminer les paramètres structuraux de ces étoiles et de les comparer remarquablement à toutes les contraintes indépendantes disponibles dans la littérature, mais aussi d’inférer sur la dynamique interne et de reconstruire le profil de rotation interne. Dans un premier temps, on analyse le duo d’étoiles ZZ Ceti, GD 165 et Ross 548, afin de comprendre les différences entre leurs propriétés de pulsation, malgré le fait qu’elles soient des étoiles similaires en tout point, spectroscopiquement parlant. L’analyse sismique révèle des structures internes différentes, et dévoile la sensibilité de certains modes de pulsation à la composition interne du noyau de l’étoile. Afin de palier à cette sensibilité, nouvellement découverte, et de rivaliser avec les données de qualité exceptionnelle que nous fournissent les missions spatiales Kepler et Kepler2, on développe une nouvelle paramétrisation des profils chimiques dans le coeur, et on valide la robustesse de notre technique et de nos modèles par de nombreux tests. Avec en main la nouvelle paramétrisation du noyau, on décroche enfin le ”Saint Graal” de l’astérosismologie, en étant capable de reproduire pour la première fois les périodes observées à la précision des observations, dans le cas de l’étude sismique des étoiles KIC 08626021 et de GD 1212.

Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

在激波波面中氧分子的非平衡离解

对强激波作用下双原子分子振动与离解耦合的非平衡离解过程进行了理论计算.本工作的特点是将计算起点建立在分子基本参数上,采用主方程理论处理振动与离解的耦合,振动跃迁几率用SSH理论计算,在离解限附近考虑多量子数跃迁并计及原子复合的影响.对O2-Ar体系,计算给出了在正激波后O2分子振动能级分布、振动弛豫时间、离解孕育时间、离解产物浓度、离解速率系数等物理量随时间的演化.计算结果分别与Camac和Wray的实验相符.计算显示,在激波作用的后期,有准稳态的振动能级布居分布.计算结果显示,Park模型低估了非平衡离解速率系数,Hansen模型则高估了非平衡离解速率系数.