A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Calcium-activated potassium currents in mammalian neurons

1. Influx of calcium via voltage-dependent calcium channels during the action potential lends to increases in cytosolic calcium that can initiate a number of physiological processes. One of these is the activation of potassium currents on the plasmalemma. These calcium-activated potassium currents contribute to action potential repolarization and are largely responsible for the phenomenon of spike frequency adaptation. This refers to the progressive slowing of the frequency of discharge of action potentials during sustained injection of depolarizing current. In some cell types, this adaptation is so marked that despite the presence of depolarizing current, only a single spike (or a few spikes) is initiated, Following cessation of current injection, slow deactivation of calcium-activated potassium currents is also responsible for the prolonged hyperpolarization that often follows, 2. A number of macroscopic calcium-activated potassium currents that can be separated on the basis of kinetic and pharmacological criteria have been described in mammalian neurons. At the single channel level, several types of calcium-activated potassium channels also have been characterized. While for some macroscopic currents the underlying:single channels have been unambiguously defined, for other currents the identity of the underlying channels is not clear. 3. In the present review we describe the properties of the known types of calcium-activated potassium currents in mammalian neurons and indicate the relationship between macroscopic currents and particular single channels.

From EEG to BOLD: Brain mapping and estimating transfer functions in simultaneous EEG-fMRI acquisitions

Simultaneous acquisition of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) aims to disentangle the description of brain processes by exploiting the advantages of each technique. Most studies in this field focus on exploring the relationships between fMRI signals and the power spectrum at some specific frequency bands (alpha, beta, etc.). On the other hand, brain mapping of EEG signals (e.g., interictal spikes in epileptic patients) usually assumes an haemodynamic response function for a parametric analysis applying the GLM, as a rough approximation. The integration of the information provided by the high spatial resolution of MR images and the high temporal resolution of EEG may be improved by referencing them by transfer functions, which allows the identification of neural driven areas without strong assumptions about haemodynamic response shapes or brain haemodynamic`s homogeneity. The difference on sampling rate is the first obstacle for a full integration of EEG and fMRI information. Moreover, a parametric specification of a function representing the commonalities of both signals is not established. In this study, we introduce a new data-driven method for estimating the transfer function from EEG signal to fMRI signal at EEG sampling rate. This approach avoids EEG subsampling to fMRI time resolution and naturally provides a test for EEG predictive power over BOLD signal fluctuations, in a well-established statistical framework. We illustrate this concept in resting state (eyes closed) and visual simultaneous fMRI-EEG experiments. The results point out that it is possible to predict the BOLD fluctuations in occipital cortex by using EEG measurements. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Chelatable zinc modulates excitability and seizure duration in the amygdala rapid kindling model

Zinc is present in high concentration in many structures of the limbic circuitry, however the role of zinc as a neuromodulator in such synapses is stilt uncertain. In this work, we verified the effects of zinc chelation in an animal model of epileptogenesis induced by amygdala rapid kindling. The basolateral. amygdala was electrically stimulated ten times per day for 2 days. A single stimulus was applied on the third day. Stimulated animals received injections of PBS or the zinc chelator diethildythiocarbamate acid (DEDTC) before each stimulus series. Animals were monitored with video-EEG and were perfused 3 h after the last stimulus for subsequent neo-Timm and Ftuoro-Jade B analysis. Zinc chelation decreased the duration of both behavioral seizures and electrical after-discharges, and also decreased the EEG spikes frequency, without changing the progression of behavioral seizure severity. These results indicate that the zinc ion may have a facilitatory role during kindling progression. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rasmussen encephalitis: long-term outcome after surgery

Rasmussen encephalitis (RE) is characterized by intractable epilepsy, progressive hemiparesis, and unilateral hemispheric atrophy. The progression of the symptoms to significant neurological impairment usually occurs within months to a few years. RE causes are unknown, although evidence of an autoimmune process has been extensively described in the literature. Antiepileptic drugs are usually not effective to control seizures or cerebral atrophy; despite data supporting a beneficial effect of early immunosuppressive and immunomodulatory interventions, for intractable seizures in RE patients with advanced disease, epilepsy surgery in the form of hemispheric disconnection has been considered the treatment of choice. This work describes the clinical and electrographic analyses, as well as the post-operative evolution of patients with RE. This work includes all the patients with RE evaluated from January 1995 to January 2008 by the RibeirA o pound Preto Epilepsy Surgery Program (CIREP), taking variables such as gender; age at epilepsy onset; seizure semiology; seizure frequency; interictal and ictal electroencephalographic (EEG) findings; age at surgery, when done; duration of epilepsy; surgery complications; follow-up duration; anatomo-pathological findings; post-surgery seizure; language and cognitive outcome; and anti-epileptic drug treatment after surgery into account. Twenty-five patients were evaluated; thirteen were female. Mean age of epilepsy onset was 4.4 +/- 2.0 years. There were no differences between patients with slow and fast evolution with respect to age of epilepsy onset (p = 0.79), age at surgery (p = 0.24), duration of epilepsy (0.06), and follow-up (p = 0.40). There were no correlations between the presence of bilateral EEG abnormalities or the absence of spikes and post-operative seizure outcome (p = 0.06). Immunomodulatory therapy was tried in 12 patients (48%). Twenty-three patients underwent surgery. The mean follow-up was 63.3 months. Eleven patients had total seizure control. Twelve individuals persisted with seizures consisting of mild facial jerks (six patients), occasional hemigeneralized tonic-clonic seizures (three patients), and frequent tonic-clonic seizures (three patients). Mental and language impairment was observed in 15 and 12 patients, after surgery, respectively. Eight patients presented post-operative cognitive decline, while only two patients had cognitive improvement. Comparing pre- and post-operative language deficits, 66.7% of the 12 patients with language disturbance did not improve after surgery. This retrospective study reported the clinical and electrographic analysis, as well as the evolution of 23 patients with RE. Patients were divided into two groups: fast evolution and slow evolution to hemiparesis and epilepsia partialis continua. These groups may represent different RE substrates. Fourteen patients achieved satisfactory seizure control, three patients had partial response to surgery, and five patients had maintenance of the pre-operative condition. All patients with left-side involvement presented with some language disturbance, which did not improve after surgery in 66.6% of patients. Cognitive evaluation showed that the majority of the patients did not have any significant improvement, and 38.1% had cognitive deterioration after surgery.

The effect of leaf area reduction on corn plants during the reproduction phase

Reduction in leaf area in corn plants during reproduction changes physiological metabolism and consequently the accumulation of dry matter in grains. The aim of this work was to study changes in agronomic characteristics caused by defoliation in corn during the reproduction phase. The experiment was carried out in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais state, in the agricultural year 2007/2008. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design, consisting of seven treatments: control without defoliation, removal of two apical leaves, removal of four apical leaves, removal of all leaves above spike, removal of four intermediate leaves, removal of all leaves below spike, and removal of all plant leaves, with five repetitions. The genotype used for the evaluations was hybrid NB 7376. Defoliation was carried out when plants were at the growth stage R2. The variables assessed were: yield, density of spikes and corncobs, root resistance and stem integrity. When all leaves above the spike were removed, grain yield was reduced by 20%. Corncob density, stem integrity and root resistance to uprooting were also affected. Spike density was only affected when all plant leaves were removed. The leaf area remaining physiologically active above the spike was found to be most efficient in terms of grain yield.

Miocene lithological, foraminiferal and palynological data from the Belverde borehole (Portugal)

XVIII Jornadas de Paleontología, 2002

Ultrasound velocity profile (UVP) measurements in shallow open-channel flows

1st European IAHR Congress, 6-4 May, Edinburgh, Scotland

Incentive-based demand response programs designed by asset-light retailers for day-ahead market

Following the deregulation experience of retail electricity markets in most countries, the majority of the new entrants of the liberalized retail market were pure REP (retail electricity providers). These entities were subject to financial risks because of the unexpected price variations, price spikes, volatile loads and the potential for market power exertion by GENCO (generation companies). A REP can manage the market risks by employing the DR (demand response) programs and using its' generation and storage assets at the distribution network to serve the customers. The proposed model suggests how a REP with light physical assets, such as DG (distributed generation) units and ESS (energy storage systems), can survive in a competitive retail market. The paper discusses the effective risk management strategies for the REPs to deal with the uncertainties of the DAM (day-ahead market) and how to hedge the financial losses in the market. A two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated. It aims to establish the financial incentive-based DR programs and the optimal dispatch of the DG units and ESSs. The uncertainty of the forecasted day-ahead load demand and electricity price is also taken into account with a scenario-based approach. The principal advantage of this model for REPs is reducing the risk of financial losses in DAMs, and the main benefit for the whole system is market power mitigation by virtually increasing the price elasticity of demand and reducing the peak demand.

N170 Asymmetry as an Index of Inferior Occipital Dysfunction in Patients With Symptomatic Occipital Lobe Epilepsy

Objective: Localizing epileptic foci in posterior brain epilepsy remains a difficult exercise in surgery for epilepsy evaluation. Neither clinical manifestations, neurological, EEG nor neuropsychological evaluations provide strong information about the area of onset, and fast spread of paroxysms often produces mixed features of occipital, temporal and parietal symptoms. We investigated the usefulness of the N170 event-related potential to map epileptic activity in these patients. Methods: A group of seven patients with symptomatic posterior cortex epilepsy were submitted to a high-resolution EEG (78 electrodes), with recordings of interictal spikes and face-evoked N170. Generators of spikes and N170 were localized by source analysis. Range of normal N170 asymmetry was determined in 30 healthy volunteers. Results: In 3 out of 7 patients the N170 inter-hemispheric asymmetry was outside control values. Those were the patients whose spike sources were nearest (within 3 cm) to the fusiform gyrus, while foci further away did not affect the N170 ratio. Conclusions: N170 event-related potential provides useful information about focal cortical dysfunction produced by epileptic foci located in the close neighborhood of the fusiform gyrus, but are unaffected by foci further away. Significance: The N170 evoked by faces can improve the epileptic foci localization in posterior brain epilepsy.

Interictal Spike EEG Source Analysis in Hypothalamic Hamartoma Epilepsy

Objective: The epilepsy associated with the hypothalamic hamartomas constitutes a syndrome with peculiar seizures, usually refractory to medical therapy, mild cognitive delay, behavioural problems and multifocal spike activity in the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG). The cortical origin of spikes has been widely assumed but not specifically demonstrated. Methods: We present results of a source analysis of interictal spikes from 4 patients (age 2–25 years) with epilepsy and hypothalamic hamartoma, using EEG scalp recordings (32 electrodes) and realistic boundary element models constructed from volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs). Multifocal spike activity was the most common finding, distributed mainly over the frontal and temporal lobes. A spike classification based on scalp topography was done and averaging within each class performed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Single moving dipole models were used, as well as the Rap-MUSIC algorithm. Results: All spikes with good signal to noise ratio were best explained by initial deep sources in the neighbourhood of the hamartoma, with late sources located in the cortex. Not a single patient could have his spike activity explained by a combination of cortical sources. Conclusions: Overall, the results demonstrate a consistent origin of spike activity in the subcortical region in the neighbourhood of the hamartoma, with late spread to cortical areas.

Analysis of the Generators of Epileptic Activity in Early-Onset Childhood Benign Occipital Lobe Epilepsy

Objective: The Panayiotopoulos type of idiopathic occipital epilepsy has peculiar and easily recognizable ictal symptoms, which are associated with complex and variable spike activity over the posterior scalp areas. These characteristics of spikes have prevented localization of the particular brain regions originating clinical manifestations. We studied spike activity in this epilepsy to determine their brain generators. Methods: The EEG of 5 patients (ages 7–9) was recorded, spikes were submitted to blind decomposition in independent components (ICs) and those to source analysis (sLORETA), revealing the spike generators. Coherence analysis evaluated the dynamics of the components. Results: Several ICs were recovered for posterior spikes in contrast to central spikes which originated a single one. Coherence analysis supports a model with epileptic activity originating near lateral occipital area and spreading to cortical temporal or parietal areas. Conclusions: Posterior spikes demonstrate rapid spread of epileptic activity to nearby lobes, starting in the lateral occipital area. In contrast, central spikes remain localized in the rolandic fissure. Significance: Rapid spread of posterior epileptic activity in the Panayitopoulos type of occipital lobe epilepsy is responsible for the variable and poorly localized spike EEG. The lateral occipital cortex is the primary generator of the epileptic activity.

Analysis of the Dynamics and Origin of Epileptic Activity in Patients with Tuberous Sclerosis Evaluated for Surgery of Epilepsy

Objective: The epilepsies associated with the tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) are very often refractory to medical therapy. Surgery for epilepsy is an effective alternative when the critical link between the localization of seizure onset in the scalp and a particular cortical tuber can be established. In this study we perform analysis of ictal and interictal EEG to improve such link. Methods: The ictal and interictal recordings of four patients with TSC undergoing surgery for epilepsy were submitted to independent component analysis (ICA), followed by source analysis, using the sLORETA algorithm. The localizations obtained for the ictal EEG and for the average interictal spikes were compared. Results: The ICA of ictal EEG produced consistent results in different events, and there was good agreement with the tubers that were successfully removed in three of the four patients (one patient refused surgery). In some patients there was a large discrepancy between the localization of ictal and interictal sources. The interictal activity produced more widespread source localizations. Conclusions: The use of ICA of ictal EEG followed by the use of source analysis methods in four cases of epilepsy and TSC was able to localize the epileptic generators very near the lesions successfully removed in surgery for epilepsy. Significance: The ICA of ictal EEG events may be a useful add-on to the tools used to establish the connection between epileptic scalp activity and the cortical tubers originating it, in patients with TSC considered for surgery of epilepsy.

Comparison of Methods and Co-Registration Maps of EEG and fMRI in Occipital Lobe Epilepsy

Clinically childhood occipital lobe epilepsy (OLE) manifests itself with distinct syndromes. The traditional EEG recordings have not been able to overcome the difficulty in correlating the ictal clinical symptoms to the onset in particular areas of the occipital lobes. To understand these syndromes it is important to map with more precision the epileptogenic cortical regions in OLE. Experimentally, we studied three idiopathic childhood OLE patients with EEG source analysis and with the simultaneous acquisition of EEG and fMRI, to map the BOLD effect associated with EEG spikes. The spatial overlap between the EEG and BOLD results was not very good, but the fMRI suggested localizations more consistent with the ictal clinical manifestations of each type of epileptic syndrome. Since our first results show that by associating the BOLD effect with interictal spikes the epileptogenic areas are mapped to localizations different from those calculated from EEG sources and that by using different EEG/fMRI processing methods our results differ to some extent, it is very important to compare the different methods of processing the localization of activation and develop a good methodology for obtaining co-registration maps of high resolution EEG with BOLD localizations.

Optimization of fMRI Processing Parameters for Simutaneous Acquisition of EEG/fMRI in Focal Epilepsy

In the context of focal epilepsy, the simultaneous combination of electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) holds a great promise as a technique by which the hemodynamic correlates of interictal spikes detected on scalp EEG can be identified. The fact that traditional EEG recordings have not been able to overcome the difficulty in correlating the ictal clinical symptoms to the onset in particular areas of the lobes, brings the need of mapping with more precision the epileptogenic cortical regions. On the other hand, fMRI suggested localizations more consistent with the ictal clinical manifestations detected. This study was developed in order to improve the knowledge about the way parameters involved in the physical and mathematical data, produced by the EEG/fMRI technique processing, would influence the final results. The evaluation of the accuracy was made by comparing the BOLD results with: the high resolution EEG maps; the malformative lesions detected in the T1 weighted MR images; and the anatomical localizations of the diagnosed symptomatology of each studied patient. The optimization of the set of parameters used, will provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of epileptogenic focuses, in patients included on an epilepsy surgery evaluation program. The results obtained allowed us to conclude that: by associating the BOLD effect with interictal spikes, the epileptogenic areas are mapped to localizations different from those obtained by the EEG maps representing the electrical potential distribution across the scalp (EEG); there is an important and solid bond between the variation of particular parameters (manipulated during the fMRI data processing) and the optimization of the final results, from which smoothing, deleted volumes, HRF (used to convolve with the activation design), and the shape of the Gamma function can be certainly emphasized.