Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model

Sea level changes resulting from CO2-induced climate changes in ocean density and circulation have been investigated in a series of idealised experiments with the Hadley Centre HadCM3 AOGCM. Changes in the mass of the ocean were not included. In the global mean, salinity changes have a negligible effect compared with the thermal expansion of the ocean. Regionally, sea level changes are projected to deviate greatly from the global mean (standard deviation is 40% of the mean). Changes in surface fluxes of heat, freshwater and wind stress are all found to produce significant and distinct regional sea level changes, wind stress changes being the most important and the cause of several pronounced local features, while heat and freshwater flux changes affect large parts of the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. Regional change is related mainly to density changes, with a relatively small contribution in mid and high latitudes from change in the barotropic circulation. Regional density change has an important contribution from redistribution of ocean heat content. In general, unlike in the global mean, the regional pattern of sea level change due to density change appears to be influenced almost as much by salinity changes as by temperature changes, often in opposition. Such compensation is particularly marked in the North Atlantic, where it is consistent with recent observed changes. We suggest that density compensation is not a property of climate change specifically, but a general behavior of the ocean.

A model study of factors influencing projected changes in regional sea level over the 21st century

In addition to projected increases in global mean sea level over the 21st century, model simulations suggest there will also be changes in the regional distribution of sea level relative to the global mean. There is a considerable spread in the projected patterns of these changes by current models, as shown by the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment (AR4). This spread has not reduced from that given by the Third Assessment models. Comparison with projections by ensembles of models based on a single structure supports an earlier suggestion that models of similar formulation give more similar patterns of sea level change. Analysing an AR4 ensemble of model projections under a business-as-usual scenario shows that steric changes (associated with subsurface ocean density changes) largely dominate the sea level pattern changes. The relative importance of subsurface temperature or salinity changes in contributing to this differs from region to region and, to an extent, from model-to-model. In general, thermosteric changes give the spatial variations in the Southern Ocean, halosteric changes dominate in the Arctic and strong compensation between thermosteric and halosteric changes characterises the Atlantic. The magnitude of sea level and component changes in the Atlantic appear to be linked to the amount of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) weakening. When the MOC weakening is substantial, the Atlantic thermosteric patterns of change arise from a dominant role of ocean advective heat flux changes.

The sea-level conundrum: case studies from palaeo-archives

Uncertainties in sea-level projections for the 21st century have focused ice sheet modelling efforts to include the processes that are thought to be contributing to the recently observed rapid changes at ice sheet margins. This effort is still in its infancy, however, leaving us unable to make reliable predictions of ice sheet responses to a warming climate if such glacier accelerations were to increase in size and frequency. The geological record, however, has long identified examples of nonlinear ice sheet response to climate forcing (Shackleton NJ, Opdyke ND. 1973. Oxygen isotope and paleomagnetic stratigraphy of equatorial Pacific core V28–239, late Pliocene to latest Pleistocene. Geological Society of America Memoirs145: 449–464; Fairbanks RG. 1989. A 17,000 year glacio-eustatic sea level record: influence of glacial melting rates on the Younger Dryas event and deep ocean circulation. Nature342: 637–642; Bard E, Hamelin B, Arnold M, Montaggioni L, Cabioch G, Faure G, Rougerie F. 1996. Sea level record from Tahiti corals and the timing of deglacial meltwater discharge. Nature382: 241–244), thus suggesting an alternative strategy for constraining the rate and magnitude of sea-level change that we might expect by the end of this century. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The reversibility of sea level rise

During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable.

Sea Level Variations from Decades to Millennia: A few Case Studies

The main goals of this Ph.D. study are to investigate the regional and global geophysical components related to present polar ice melting and to provide independent cross validation checks of GIA models using both geophysical data detected by satellite mission, and geological observations from far field sites, in order to determine a lower and upper bound of uncertainty of GIA effect. The subject of this Thesis is the sea level change from decades to millennia scale. Within ice2sea collaboration, we developed a Fortran numerical code to analyze the local short-term sea level change and vertical deformation resulting from the loss of ice mass. This method is used to investigate polar regions: Greenland and Antarctica. We have used mass balance based on ICESat data for Greenland ice sheet and a plausible mass balance for Antarctic ice sheet. We have determined the regional and global fingerprint of sea level variations, vertical deformations of the solid surface of the Earth and variations of shape of the geoid for each ice source mentioned above. The coastal areas are affected by the long wavelength component of GIA process. Hence understanding the response of the Earth to loading is crucial in various contexts. Based on the hypothesis that Earth mantle materials obey to a linear rheology, and that the physical parameters of this rheology can be only characterized by their depth dependence, we investigate the Glacial Isostatic Effect upon the far field sites of Mediterranean area using an improved SELEN program. We presented new and revised observations for archaeological fish tanks located along the Tyrrhenian and Adriatic coast of Italy and new RSL for the SE Tunisia. Spatial and temporal variations of the Holocene sea levels studied in central Italy and Tunisia, provided important constraints on the melting history of the major ice sheets.

Global and regional sea level variations in the recent past and future: insight from observations and modeling

This work is focused on the analysis of sea–level change (last century), based mainly on instrumental observations. During this period, individual components of sea–level change are investigated, both at global and regional scales. Some of the geophysical processes responsible for current sea-level change such as glacial isostatic adjustments and current melting terrestrial ice sources, have been modeled and compared with observations. A new value of global mean sea level change based of tide gauges observations has been independently assessed in 1.5 mm/year, using corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment obtained with different models as a criterion for the tide gauge selection. The long wavelength spatial variability of the main components of sea–level change has been investigated by means of traditional and new spectral methods. Complex non–linear trends and abrupt sea–level variations shown by tide gauges records have been addressed applying different approaches to regional case studies. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition technique has been used to analyse tide gauges records from the Adriatic Sea to ascertain the existence of cyclic sea-level variations. An Early Warning approach have been adopted to detect tipping points in sea–level records of North East Pacific and their relationship with oceanic modes. Global sea–level projections to year 2100 have been obtained by a semi-empirical approach based on the artificial neural network method. In addition, a model-based approach has been applied to the case of the Mediterranean Sea, obtaining sea-level projection to year 2050.

A Late Pleistocene sea level stack

Late Pleistocene sea level has been reconstructed from ocean sediment core data using a wide variety of proxies and models. However, the accuracy of individual reconstructions is limited by measurement error, local variations in salinity and temperature, and assumptions particular to each technique. Here we present a sea level stack (average) which increases the signal-to-noise ratio of individual reconstructions. Specifically, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) on seven records from 0-430 ka and five records from 0-798 ka. The first principal component, which we use as the stack, describes ~80 % of the variance in the data and is similar using either five or seven records. After scaling the stack based on Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sea level estimates, the stack agrees to within 5 m with isostatically adjusted coral sea level estimates for Marine Isotope Stages 5e and 11 (125 and 400 ka, respectively). When we compare the sea level stack with the d18O of benthic foraminifera, we find that sea level change accounts for about ~40 % of the total orbital-band variance in benthic d18O, compared to a 65 % contribution during the LGM-to-Holocene transition. Additionally, the second and third principal components of our analyses reflect differences between proxy records associated with spatial variations in the d18O of seawater.

Global and Regional Sea level budget components from GRACE and radar altimetry (2002-2014)

This dataset contains the result of a joint least squares inversion of GRACE and altimetry data. The results are evaluated in terms of sea level change for the global ocean as well as dedicated areas. In addition, some auxiliary data is provided to enable reproducibility of the results in Rietbroek et al. 2016, and a google Earth kmz file is provided which visualizes the trends derived from the inversion results.

Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20-25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.

Relative sea-level history of Marguerite Bay, Antarctic Peninsula derived from optically stimulated luminescence-dated beach cobbles

Calmette Bay within Marguerite Bay along the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula contains one of the most continuous flights of raised beaches described to date in Antarctica. Raised beaches extend to 40.8 m above sea level (masl) and are thought to reflect glacial isostatic adjustment due to the retreat of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet. Using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), we dated quartz extracts from cobble surfaces buried in raised beaches at Calmette Bay. The beaches are separated into upper and lower beaches based on OSL ages, geomorphology, and sedimentary fabric. The two sets of beaches are separated by a prominent scarp. One of our OSL ages from the upper beaches dates to 9.3 thousand years ago (ka; as of 1950) consistent with previous extrapolation of sea-level data and the time of ice retreat from inner Marguerite Bay. However, four of the seven ages from the upper beaches date to the timing of glaciation. We interpret these ages to represent reworking of beaches deposited prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) by advancing and retreating LGM ice. Ages from the lower beaches record relative sea-level fall due to Holocene glacial-isostatic adjustment. We suggest a Holocene marine limit of 21.7 masl with an age of 5.5-7.3 ka based on OSL ages from Calmette Bay and other sea-level constraints in the area. A marine limit at 21.7 masl implies half as much relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay during the Holocene as suggested by previous sea-level reconstructions. No evidence for a relative sea-level signature of neoglacial events, such as a decrease followed by an increase in RSL fall due to ice advance and retreat associated with the Little Ice Age, is found within Marguerite Bay indicating either: (1) no significant neoglacial advances occurred within Marguerite Bay; (2) rheological heterogeneity allows part of the Antarctic Peninsula (i.e. the South Shetland Islands) to respond to rapid ice mass changes while other regions are incapable of responding to short-lived ice advances; or (3) the magnitude of neoglacial events within Marguerite Bay is too small to resolve through relative sea-level reconstructions. Although the application of reconstructing sea-level histories using OSL-dated raised beach deposits provides a better understanding of the timing and nature of relative sea-level change in Marguerite Bay, we highlight possible problems associated with using raised beaches as sea-level indices due to post-depositional reworking by storm waves.

Climate change, sea level rise and integrated coastal zone management: An IPCC approach

Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced.

High density mangrove plantation enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise

Survival, growth, above ground biomass accumulation, soil surface elevation dynamics and nitrogen accumulation in accreted sediments were studied in experimental treatments planted with four different densities (6.96, 3.26, 1.93 and 0.95 seedlings m-2) of the mangrove Rhizophora mucronata in Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka. Measurements were taken over a period of 1171 days and were compared with those from unplanted controls. Trees at the lowest density showed significantly reduced survival, whilst measures of individual tree growth did not differ significantly among treatments. Rates of surface sediment accretion (means ± S.E.) were 13.0 (±1.3), 10.5 (±0.9), 8.4 (±0.3), 6.9 (±0.5) and 5.7 (±0.3) mm yr-1 at planting densities of 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 (unplanted control) seedlings m-2, respectively, showing highly significant differences among treatments. Mean (± S.E.) rates of surface elevation change were much lower than rates of accretion at 2.8 (±0.2), 1.6 (±0.1), 1.1 (±0.2), 0.6 (±0.2) and -0.3 (±0.1) mm yr-1 for 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 seedlings m-2, respectively. All planted treatments appeared to accumulate greater nitrogen concentrations in the sediment compared to the unplanted control, and suggests one potential causal mechanism for the facilitatory effects observed; high densities of plants potentially contribute to the accretion of greater amounts of nutrient rich sediment. While this potential process needs further study, this study demonstrated how higher densities of mangroves enhance rates of sediment accretion and surface elevation, processes that may be crucial in mangrove ecosystem adaptation to sea level rise. There was no evidence that increasing plant density evoked a trade-off with growth and survival of the planted trees. Rather facilitatory effects enhanced survival at high densities, suggesting that local land managers may be able to take advantage of plantation densities to help mitigate sea-level rise effects by encouraging positive soil surface elevation increment, and perhaps even greater nutrient retention to promote mangrove growth and ameliorate nearshore eutrophication in tropical island environments.

Granulometric characterization and evaluation of annually banded mid-Holocene estuarine silts, Welsh Severn Estuary (UK): coastal change, sea level and climate

Holocene silts (salt marshes) and highest intertidal-supratidal peats are superbly exposed on a 15 kin coastal transect which reveals two laterally extensive units of annually banded silts (Beds 3, 7) associated with three transgressive-regressive silt-peat cycles (early sixth-early fourth millennium BC). Bed 3 in places is concordantly and gradationally related to peats above and below, but in others transgresses older strata. Bed 7 also grades up into peat, but everywhere overlies a discordance. The banding in Bed 3 at three main and two minor sites was resolved and characterized texturally at high-resolution (2.5/5 mm contiguous slices) using laser granulometry (LS230 with PIDS) and a comprehensive scheme of data-assessment. Most of Bed 3 formed very rapidly, at peak values of several tens of millimetres annually, in accordance with modelled effects of sea-level fluctuations on mature marshes (bed concordant and gradational) and on marshes growing up after coastal erosion and retreat (bed with discordant base). Using data from the modern Severn Estuary, the textural contrast within bands, and its variation between bands, points to a variable but overall milder mid-Holocene climate than today. The inter-annual variability affected marsh dynamics, as shown by the behaviour of the finely divided plant tissues present. Given local calibration, the methodology is applicable to other tidal systems with banded silts in Britain and mainland northwest Europe. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.