Twin experiments with the equivalent weights particle filter and HadCM3

This paper investigates the use of a particle filter for data assimilation with a full scale coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Synthetic twin experiments are performed to assess the performance of the equivalent weights filter in such a high-dimensional system. Artificial 2-dimensional sea surface temperature fields are used as observational data every day. Results are presented for different values of the free parameters in the method. Measures of the performance of the filter are root mean square errors, trajectories of individual variables in the model and rank histograms. Filter degeneracy is not observed and the performance of the filter is shown to depend on the ability to keep maximum spread in the ensemble.

Representing the Arctic in global surface temperature time series of recent climate change

The Arctic is an important region in the study of climate change, but monitoring surface temperatures in this region is challenging, particularly in areas covered by sea ice. Here in situ, satellite and reanalysis data were utilised to investigate whether global warming over recent decades could be better estimated by changing the way the Arctic is treated in calculating global mean temperature. The degree of difference arising from using five different techniques, based on existing temperature anomaly dataset techniques, to estimate Arctic SAT anomalies over land and sea ice were investigated using reanalysis data as a testbed. Techniques which interpolated anomalies were found to result in smaller errors than non-interpolating techniques. Kriging techniques provided the smallest errors in anomaly estimates. Similar accuracies were found for anomalies estimated from in situ meteorological station SAT records using a kriging technique. Whether additional data sources, which are not currently utilised in temperature anomaly datasets, would improve estimates of Arctic surface air temperature anomalies was investigated within the reanalysis testbed and using in situ data. For the reanalysis study, the additional input anomalies were reanalysis data sampled at certain supplementary data source locations over Arctic land and sea ice areas. For the in situ data study, the additional input anomalies over sea ice were surface temperature anomalies derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite instruments. The use of additional data sources, particularly those located in the Arctic Ocean over sea ice or on islands in sparsely observed regions, can lead to substantial improvements in the accuracy of estimated anomalies. Decreases in Root Mean Square Error can be up to 0.2K for Arctic-average anomalies and more than 1K for spatially resolved anomalies. Further improvements in accuracy may be accomplished through the use of other data sources.

The role of no-arbitrage on forecasting: lessons from a parametric term structure model

Parametric term structure models have been successfully applied to innumerous problems in fixed income markets, including pricing, hedging, managing risk, as well as studying monetary policy implications. On their turn, dynamic term structure models, equipped with stronger economic structure, have been mainly adopted to price derivatives and explain empirical stylized facts. In this paper, we combine flavors of those two classes of models to test if no-arbitrage affects forecasting. We construct cross section (allowing arbitrages) and arbitrage-free versions of a parametric polynomial model to analyze how well they predict out-of-sample interest rates. Based on U.S. Treasury yield data, we find that no-arbitrage restrictions significantly improve forecasts. Arbitrage-free versions achieve overall smaller biases and Root Mean Square Errors for most maturities and forecasting horizons. Furthermore, a decomposition of forecasts into forward-rates and holding return premia indicates that the superior performance of no-arbitrage versions is due to a better identification of bond risk premium.

The wavelet method as an alternative for reducing ionospheric effects from single-frequency GPS receivers

The ionospheric effect is one of the major errors in GPS data processing over long baselines. As a dispersive medium, it is possible to compute its influence on the GPS signal with the ionosphere-free linear combination of L1 and L2 observables, requiring dual-frequency receivers. In the case of single-frequency receivers, ionospheric effects are either neglected or reduced by using a model. In this paper, an alternative for single-frequency users is proposed. It involves multiresolution analysis (MRA) using a wavelet analysis of the double-difference observations to remove the short- and medium-scale ionosphere variations and disturbances, as well as some minor tropospheric effects. Experiments were carried out over three baseline lengths from 50 to 450 km, and the results provided by the proposed method were better than those from dual-frequency receivers. The horizontal root mean square was of about 0.28 m (1 sigma).

Uma experiência com modelo estatístico (MOS) para a previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar

Uma equação de regressão múltipla MOS (da sigla em inglês para Model Output Statistics), para previsão da temperatura mínima diária do ar na cidade de Bauru, estado de São Paulo, é desenvolvida. A equação de regressão múltipla, obtida usando análise de regressão stepwise, tem quatro preditores, três do modelo numérico global do Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) e um observacional da estação meteorológica do Instituto de Pesquisas Meteorológicas (IPMet), Bauru. Os preditores são prognósticos para 24 horas do modelo global, válidos para 00:00GMT, da temperatura em 1000hPa, vento meridional em 850hPa e umidade relativa em 1000hPa, e temperatura observada às 18:00GMT. Esses quatro preditores explicam, aproximadamente, 80% da variância total do preditando, com erro quadrático médio de 1,4°C, que é aproximadamente metade do desvio padrão da temperatura mínima diária do ar observada na estação do IPMet. Uma verificação da equação MOS com uma amostra independente de 47 casos mostra que a previsão não se deteriora significativamente quando o preditor observacional for desconsiderado. A equação MOS, com ou sem esse preditor, produz previsões com erro absoluto menor do que 1,5°C em 70% dos casos examinados. Este resultado encoraja a utilização da técnica MOS para previsão operacional da temperatura mínima e seu desenvolvimento para outros elementos do tempo e outras localidades.

Test-retest reliability of electromyographic variables of masseter and temporal muscles in patients with cerebral palsy

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mapeamento de QTL e análises de espectroscopia para teor de óleo visando aplicação em programas de melhoramento de soja

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Genética e Melhoramento de Plantas) - FCAV

Orientação e ortorretificação de imagens terrestres nadirais

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Vibration as a method for muscular stimulation

Human reactions to vibration have been extensively investigated in the past. Vibration, as well as whole-body vibration (WBV), has been commonly considered as an occupational hazard for its detrimental effects on human condition and comfort. Although long term exposure to vibrations may produce undesirable side-effects, a great part of the literature is dedicated to the positive effects of WBV when used as method for muscular stimulation and as an exercise intervention. Whole body vibration training (WBVT) aims to mechanically activate muscles by eliciting neuromuscular activity (muscle reflexes) via the use of vibrations delivered to the whole body. The most mentioned mechanism to explain the neuromuscular outcomes of vibration is the elicited neuromuscular activation. Local tendon vibrations induce activity of the muscle spindle Ia fibers, mediated by monosynaptic and polysynaptic pathways: a reflex muscle contraction known as the Tonic Vibration Reflex (TVR) arises in response to such vibratory stimulus. In WBVT mechanical vibrations, in a range from 10 to 80 Hz and peak to peak displacements from 1 to 10 mm, are usually transmitted to the patient body by the use of oscillating platforms. Vibrations are then transferred from the platform to a specific muscle group through the subject body. To customize WBV treatments, surface electromyography (SEMG) signals are often used to reveal the best stimulation frequency for each subject. Use of SEMG concise parameters, such as root mean square values of the recordings, is also a common practice; frequently a preliminary session can take place in order to discover the more appropriate stimulation frequency. Soft tissues act as wobbling masses vibrating in a damped manner in response to mechanical excitation; Muscle Tuning hypothesis suggest that neuromuscular system works to damp the soft tissue oscillation that occurs in response to vibrations; muscles alters their activity to dampen the vibrations, preventing any resonance phenomenon. Muscle response to vibration is however a complex phenomenon as it depends on different parameters, like muscle-tension, muscle or segment-stiffness, amplitude and frequency of the mechanical vibration. Additionally, while in the TVR study the applied vibratory stimulus and the muscle conditions are completely characterised (a known vibration source is applied directly to a stretched/shortened muscle or tendon), in WBV study only the stimulus applied to a distal part of the body is known. Moreover, mechanical response changes in relation to the posture. The transmissibility of vibratory stimulus along the body segment strongly depends on the position held by the subject. The aim of this work was the investigation on the effects that the use of vibrations, in particular the effects of whole body vibrations, may have on muscular activity. A new approach to discover the more appropriate stimulus frequency, by the use of accelerometers, was also explored. Different subjects, not affected by any known neurological or musculoskeletal disorders, were voluntarily involved in the study and gave their informed, written consent to participate. The device used to deliver vibration to the subjects was a vibrating platform. Vibrations impressed by the platform were exclusively vertical; platform displacement was sinusoidal with an intensity (peak-to-peak displacement) set to 1.2 mm and with a frequency ranging from 10 to 80 Hz. All the subjects familiarized with the device and the proper positioning. Two different posture were explored in this study: position 1 - hack squat; position 2 - subject standing on toes with heels raised. SEMG signals from the Rectus Femoris (RF), Vastus Lateralis (VL) and Vastus medialis (VM) were recorded. SEMG signals were amplified using a multi-channel, isolated biomedical signal amplifier The gain was set to 1000 V/V and a band pass filter (-3dB frequency 10 - 500 Hz) was applied; no notch filters were used to suppress line interference. Tiny and lightweight (less than 10 g) three-axial MEMS accelerometers (Freescale semiconductors) were used to measure accelerations of onto patient’s skin, at EMG electrodes level. Accelerations signals provided information related to individuals’ RF, Biceps Femoris (BF) and Gastrocnemius Lateralis (GL) muscle belly oscillation; they were pre-processed in order to exclude influence of gravity. As demonstrated by our results, vibrations generate peculiar, not negligible motion artifact on skin electrodes. Artifact amplitude is generally unpredictable; it appeared in all the quadriceps muscles analysed, but in different amounts. Artifact harmonics extend throughout the EMG spectrum, making classic high-pass filters ineffective; however, their contribution was easy to filter out from the raw EMG signal with a series of sharp notch filters centred at the vibration frequency and its superior harmonics (1.5 Hz wide). However, use of these simple filters prevents the revelation of EMG power potential variation in the mentioned filtered bands. Moreover our experience suggests that the possibility of reducing motion artefact, by using particular electrodes and by accurately preparing the subject’s skin, is not easily viable; even though some small improvements were obtained, it was not possible to substantially decrease the artifact. Anyway, getting rid of those artifacts lead to some true EMG signal loss. Nevertheless, our preliminary results suggest that the use of notch filters at vibration frequency and its harmonics is suitable for motion artifacts filtering. In RF SEMG recordings during vibratory stimulation only a little EMG power increment should be contained in the mentioned filtered bands due to synchronous electromyographic activity of the muscle. Moreover, it is better to remove the artifact that, in our experience, was found to be more than 40% of the total signal power. In summary, many variables have to be taken into account: in addition to amplitude, frequency and duration of vibration treatment, other fundamental variables were found to be subject anatomy, individual physiological condition and subject’s positioning on the platform. Studies on WBV treatments that include surface EMG analysis to asses muscular activity during vibratory stimulation should take into account the presence of motion artifacts. Appropriate filtering of artifacts, to reveal the actual effect on muscle contraction elicited by vibration stimulus, is mandatory. However as a result of our preliminary study, a simple multi-band notch filtering may help to reduce randomness of the results. Muscle tuning hypothesis seemed to be confirmed. Our results suggested that the effects of WBV are linked to the actual muscle motion (displacement). The greater was the muscle belly displacement the higher was found the muscle activity. The maximum muscle activity has been found in correspondence with the local mechanical resonance, suggesting a more effective stimulation at the specific system resonance frequency. Holding the hypothesis that muscle activation is proportional to muscle displacement, treatment optimization could be obtained by simply monitoring local acceleration (resonance). However, our study revealed some short term effects of vibratory stimulus; prolonged studies should be assembled in order to consider the long term effectiveness of these results. Since local stimulus depends on the kinematic chain involved, WBV muscle stimulation has to take into account the transmissibility of the stimulus along the body segment in order to ensure that vibratory stimulation effectively reaches the target muscle. Combination of local resonance and muscle response should also be further investigated to prevent hazards to individuals undergoing WBV treatments.

Nuclear moments and differences in mean square charge radii of short-lived neon isotopes by collinear laser spectroscopy

Kernmomente und Kernladungsradien von kurzlebigen NeonIsotopen in der Kette 17-26,28Ne wurden mittels kollinearerLaserspektroskopie am online Massenseparator ISOLDE am CERN(Genf) vermessen. Bei kollinearer Laserspektroskopieverlangt die Bestimmung der Kernladungsradien leichterIsotope aus der Isotopeverschiebung nach einer sehr präzisenKenntnis der Ionenstrahlenergie. Zu diesem Zweck wurde eineneue, auf kollinearer Laserspektroskopie basierende Methodezur Strahlenergiemessung entwickelt und erfolgreich in denExperimenten zu Neon eingesetzt. Die experimentellenErgebnisse werden mit theoretischen Rechnungen im Rahmen desSchalenmodells und von kollektiven Kernmodellen verglichen.

Anwendung der geoelektrischen 3D-Tomographie für die Analyse thermisch induzierter Strömungen im Labor

Sowohl in der Natur als auch in der Industrie existieren thermisch induzierte Strömungen. Von Interesse für diese Forschungsarbeit sind dabei die Konvektionen im Erdmantel sowie in den Glasschmelzwannen. Der dort stattfindende Materialtransport resultiert aus Unterschieden in der Dichte, der Temperatur und der chemischen Konzentration innerhalb des konvektierenden Materials. Um das Verständnis für die ablaufenden Prozesse zu verbessern, werden von zahlreichen Forschergruppen numerische Modellierungen durchgeführt. Die Verifikation der dafür verwendeten Algorithmen erfolgt meist über die Analyse von Laborexperimenten. Im Vordergrund dieser Forschungsarbeit steht die Entwicklung einer Methode zur Bestimmung der dreidimensionalen Temperaturverteilung für die Untersuchung von thermisch induzierten Strömungen in einem Versuchsbecken. Eine direkte Temperaturmessung im Inneren des Versuchsmaterials bzw. der Glasschmelze beeinflusst allerdings das Strömungsverhalten. Deshalb wird die geodynamisch störungsfrei arbeitende Impedanztomographie verwendet. Die Grundlage dieser Methode bildet der erweiterte Arrhenius-Zusammenhang zwischen Temperatur und spezifischer elektrischer Leitfähigkeit. Während der Laborexperimente wird ein zähflüssiges Polyethylenglykol-Wasser-Gemisch in einem Becken von unten her erhitzt. Die auf diese Weise generierten Strömungen stellen unter Berücksichtigung der Skalierung ein Analogon sowohl zu dem Erdmantel als auch zu den Schmelzwannen dar. Über mehrere Elektroden, die an den Beckenwänden installiert sind, erfolgen die geoelektrischen Messungen. Nach der sich anschließenden dreidimensionalen Inversion der elektrischen Widerstände liegt das Modell mit der Verteilung der spezifischen elektrischen Leitfähigkeit im Inneren des Versuchsbeckens vor. Diese wird mittels der erweiterten Arrhenius-Formel in eine Temperaturverteilung umgerechnet. Zum Nachweis der Eignung dieser Methode für die nichtinvasive Bestimmung der dreidimensionalen Temperaturverteilung wurden mittels mehrerer Thermoelemente an den Beckenwänden zusätzlich direkte Temperaturmessungen durchgeführt und die Werte miteinander verglichen. Im Wesentlichen sind die Innentemperaturen gut rekonstruierbar, wobei die erreichte Messgenauigkeit von der räumlichen und zeitlichen Auflösung der Gleichstromgeoelektrik abhängt.

Three-dimensional joint kinematics of swimming using body-worn inertial and magnetic sensors

Wearable inertial and magnetic measurements units (IMMU) are an important tool for underwater motion analysis because they are swimmer-centric, they require only simple measurement set-up and they provide the performance results very quickly. In order to estimate 3D joint kinematics during motion, protocols were developed to transpose the IMMU orientation estimation to a biomechanical model. The aim of the thesis was to validate a protocol originally propositioned to estimate the joint angles of the upper limbs during one-degree-of-freedom movements in dry settings and herein modified to perform 3D kinematics analysis of shoulders, elbows and wrists during swimming. Eight high-level swimmers were assessed in the laboratory by means of an IMMU while simulating the front crawl and breaststroke movements. A stereo-photogrammetric system (SPS) was used as reference. The joint angles (in degrees) of the shoulders (flexion-extension, abduction-adduction and internal-external rotation), the elbows (flexion-extension and pronation-supination), and the wrists (flexion-extension and radial-ulnar deviation) were estimated with the two systems and compared by means of root mean square errors (RMSE), relative RMSE, Pearson’s product-moment coefficient correlation (R) and coefficient of multiple correlation (CMC). Subsequently, the athletes were assessed during pool swimming trials through the IMMU. Considering both swim styles and all joint degrees of freedom modeled, the comparison between the IMMU and the SPS showed median values of RMSE lower than 8°, representing 10% of overall joint range of motion, high median values of CMC (0.97) and R (0.96). These findings suggest that the protocol accurately estimated the 3D orientation of the shoulders, elbows and wrists joint during swimming with accuracy adequate for the purposes of research. In conclusion, the proposed method to evaluate the 3D joint kinematics through IMMU was revealed to be a useful tool for both sport and clinical contexts.

Raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität anhand von hochaufgelösten interpolierten Klimakarten am Beispiel von Europa (Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie)

Klimamontoring benötigt eine operative, raum-zeitliche Analyse der Klimavariabilität. Mit dieser Zielsetzung, funktionsbereite Karten regelmäßig zu erstellen, ist es hilfreich auf einen Blick, die räumliche Variabilität der Klimaelemente in der zeitlichen Veränderungen darzustellen. Für aktuelle und kürzlich vergangene Jahre entwickelte der Deutsche Wetterdienst ein Standardverfahren zur Erstellung solcher Karten. Die Methode zur Erstellung solcher Karten variiert für die verschiedenen Klimaelemente bedingt durch die Datengrundlage, die natürliche Variabilität und der Verfügbarkeit der in-situ Daten.rnIm Rahmen der Analyse der raum-zeitlichen Variabilität innerhalb dieser Dissertation werden verschiedene Interpolationsverfahren auf die Mitteltemperatur der fünf Dekaden der Jahre 1951-2000 für ein relativ großes Gebiet, der Region VI der Weltorganisation für Meteorologie (Europa und Naher Osten) angewendet. Die Region deckt ein relativ heterogenes Arbeitsgebiet von Grönland im Nordwesten bis Syrien im Südosten hinsichtlich der Klimatologie ab.rnDas zentrale Ziel der Dissertation ist eine Methode zur räumlichen Interpolation der mittleren Dekadentemperaturwerte für die Region VI zu entwickeln. Diese Methode soll in Zukunft für die operative monatliche Klimakartenerstellung geeignet sein. Diese einheitliche Methode soll auf andere Klimaelemente übertragbar und mit der entsprechenden Software überall anwendbar sein. Zwei zentrale Datenbanken werden im Rahmen dieser Dissertation verwendet: So genannte CLIMAT-Daten über dem Land und Schiffsdaten über dem Meer.rnIm Grunde wird die Übertragung der Punktwerte der Temperatur per räumlicher Interpolation auf die Fläche in drei Schritten vollzogen. Der erste Schritt beinhaltet eine multiple Regression zur Reduktion der Stationswerte mit den vier Einflussgrößen der Geographischen Breite, der Höhe über Normalnull, der Jahrestemperaturamplitude und der thermischen Kontinentalität auf ein einheitliches Niveau. Im zweiten Schritt werden die reduzierten Temperaturwerte, so genannte Residuen, mit der Interpolationsmethode der Radialen Basis Funktionen aus der Gruppe der Neuronalen Netzwerk Modelle (NNM) interpoliert. Im letzten Schritt werden die interpolierten Temperaturraster mit der Umkehrung der multiplen Regression aus Schritt eins mit Hilfe der vier Einflussgrößen auf ihr ursprüngliches Niveau hochgerechnet.rnFür alle Stationswerte wird die Differenz zwischen geschätzten Wert aus der Interpolation und dem wahren gemessenen Wert berechnet und durch die geostatistische Kenngröße des Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) wiedergegeben. Der zentrale Vorteil ist die wertegetreue Wiedergabe, die fehlende Generalisierung und die Vermeidung von Interpolationsinseln. Das entwickelte Verfahren ist auf andere Klimaelemente wie Niederschlag, Schneedeckenhöhe oder Sonnenscheindauer übertragbar.

ZeroG: overground gait and balance training system

A new overground body-weight support system called ZeroG has been developed that allows patients with severe gait impairments to practice gait and balance activities in a safe, controlled manner. The unloading system is capable of providing up to 300 lb of static support and 150 lb of dynamic (or constant force) support using a custom-series elastic actuator. The unloading system is mounted to a driven trolley, which rides along an overhead rail. We evaluated the performance of ZeroG's unloading system, as well as the trolley tracking system, using benchtop and human-subject testing. Average root-mean-square and peak errors in unloading were 2.2 and 7.2 percent, respectively, over the range of forces tested while trolley tracking errors were less than 3 degrees, indicating the system was able to maintain its position above the subject. We believe training with ZeroG will allow patients to practice activities that are critical to achieving functional independence at home and in the community.

Absolute pKa Determinations for Substituted Phenols

The CBS-QB3 method was used to calculate the gas-phase free energy difference between 20 phenols and their respective anions, and the CPCM continuum solvation method was applied to calculate the free energy differences of solvation for the phenols and their anions. The CPCM solvation calculations were performed on both gas-phase and solvent-phase optimized structures. Absolute pKa calculations with solvated phase optimized structures for the CPCM calculations yielded standard deviations and root-mean-square errors of less than 0.4 pKa unit. This study is the most accurate absolute determination of the pKa values of phenols, and is among the most accurate of any such calculations for any group of compounds. The ability to make accurate predictions of pKa values using a coherent, well-defined approach, without external approximations or fitting to experimental data, is of general importance to the chemical community. The solvated phase optimized structures of the anions are absolutely critical to obtain this level of accuracy, and yield a more realistic charge separation between the negatively charged oxygen and the ring system of the phenoxide anions.