"We sold a million units": the role of advertising past-sales

In a market where past-sales embed information about consumers’ tastes (quality), we analyze the seller’s incentives to invest in a costly advertising campaign to report them under two informational assumptions. In the …rst scenario, a pooling equilibrium with past-sales advertising is derived. Information revelation only occurs when the seller bene…ciates from the herding behaviour that the advertising campaign induces on the part of consumers. In the second informational regime, a separating equilibrium with past-sales advertising is computed. Information revelation always happens, either through prices or through costly advertisements.

The role of consumer's risk aversion on price rigidity

This paper aims at contributing to the research agenda on the sources of price stickiness, showing that the adoption of nominal price rigidity may be an optimal firms' reaction to the consumers' behavior, even if firms have no adjustment costs. With regular broadly accepted assumptions on economic agents behavior, we show that firms' competition can lead to the adoption of sticky prices as an (sub-game perfect) equilibrium strategy. We introduce the concept of a consumption centers model economy in which there are several complete markets. Moreover, we weaken some traditional assumptions used in standard monetary policy models, by assuming that households have imperfect information about the ineflicient time-varying cost shocks faced by the firms, e.g. the ones regarding to inefficient equilibrium output leveIs under fiexible prices. Moreover, the timing of events are assumed in such a way that, at every period, consumers have access to the actual prices prevailing in the market only after choosing a particular consumption center. Since such choices under uncertainty may decrease the expected utilities of risk averse consumers, competitive firms adopt some degree of price stickiness in order to minimize the price uncertainty and fi attract more customers fi.'

The role of the State and the quality of the public sector

Sectoral policies make explicit and implicit assumptions about the behaviour and capabilities of the agents (such as dynamic responses to market signals, demand-led assistance, collaborative efforts, participation in financing); which we consider to be rather unrealistic. Because of this lack of realism, policies that aim to be neutral often turn out to be highly exclusive. They fail to give sufficient importance to the special features of the sector -with its high climatic, biological and commercial risks and its slow adaptation- or to the fact that those who take decisions in agriculture are now mostly in an inferior position because of their incomes below the poverty line, their inadequate training, their traditions based on centuries of living in precarious conditions, and their geographical location in marginal areas, far from infrastructure and with only a minimum of services and sources of information. These people have only scanty and imperfect access to the markets which, according to the prevailing model, should govern decisions and the (re);distribution of the factors of production. In our opinion, this explains the patchy and lower-than-expected growth registered by the sector after the reforms to promote the liberalization of markets and external openness in the region. In view of the results of the application of the new model, it may be wondered whether Latin America can afford a form of development which excludes over half of its agricultural producers; what the alternatives are; and what costs and benefits each of them offers in terms of production and monetary, social, spatial and other aspects. The article outlines the changes in policies and their results at the aggregate level, summarizes the arguments usually put forward to explain agricultural performance in the region, and proposes a second set of explanations based on a description of the agents and the responses that may be expected from them, contrasting the latter with the supposedly neutral nature of the policies.

Role of peptide peptide interactions in aggregation: protonectins observed in equilibrium and replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

[Role of coronary artery bypass grafting in the treatment of coronary artery disease - a well-balanced information of the patients and objective decision making are welcome]

Most recently discussion about the optimal treatment for different subsets of patients suffering from coronary artery disease has re-emerged, mainly because of the uncertainty caused by doctors and patients regarding the phenomenon of unpredictable early and late stent thrombosis. Surgical revascularization using multiple arterial bypass grafts has repeatedly proven its superiority compared to percutaneous intervention techniques, especially in patients suffering from left main stem disease and coronary 3-vessels disease. Several prospective randomized multicenter studies comparing early and mid-term results following PCI and CABG have been really restrictive, with respect to patient enrollment, with less than 5% of all patients treated during the same time period been enrolled. Coronary artery bypass grafting allows the most complete revascularization in one session, because all target coronary vessels larger than 1 mm can be bypassed in their distal segments. Once the patient has been turn-off for surgery, surgeons have to consider the most complete arterial revascularization in order to decrease the long-term necessity for re-revascularization; for instance patency rate of the left internal thoracic artery grafted to the distal part left anterior descending artery may be as high as 90-95% after 10 to 15 years. Early mortality following isolated CABG operation has been as low as 0.6 to 1% in the most recent period (reports from the University Hospital Berne and the University Hospital of Zurich); beside these excellent results, the CABG option seems to be less expensive than PCI with time, since the necessity for additional PCI is rather high following initial PCI, and the price of stent devices is still very high, particularly in Switzerland. Patients, insurance and experts in health care should be better and more honestly informed concerning the risk and costs of PCI and CABG procedures as well as about the much higher rate of subsequent interventions following PCI. Team approach for all patients in whom both options could be offered seems mandatory to avoid unbalanced information of the patients. Looking at the recent developments in transcatheter valve treatments, the revival of cardiological-cardiosurgical conferences seems to a good option to optimize the cooperation between the two medical specialties: cardiology and cardiac surgery.

The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2

We compare modeled oceanic carbon uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions using a suite of global ocean models and Earth system models. In response to a CO2 pulse emission of 590 Pg C (corresponding to an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from 278 to 556 ppm), the fraction of CO2 emitted that is absorbed by the ocean is: 37±8%, 56±10%, and 81±4% (model mean ±2σ ) in year 30, 100, and 1000 after the emission pulse, respectively. Modeled oceanic uptake of pulse CO2 on timescales from decades to about a century is strongly correlated with simulated present-day uptake of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and CO2 across all models, while the amount of pulse CO2 absorbed by the ocean from a century to a millennium is strongly correlated with modeled radiocarbon in the deep Southern and Pacific Ocean. However, restricting the analysis to models that are capable of reproducing observations within uncertainty, the correlation is generally much weaker. The rates of surface-to-deep ocean transport are determined for individual models from the instantaneous doubling CO2 simulations, and they are used to calculate oceanic CO2 uptake in response to pulse CO2 emissions of different sizes pulses of 1000 and 5000 Pg C. These results are compared with simulated oceanic uptake of CO2 by a number of models simulations with the coupling of climate-ocean carbon cycle and without it. This comparison demonstrates that the impact of different ocean transport rates across models on oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is of similar magnitude as that of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in a single model, emphasizing the important role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic CO2.

Self-disclosure and privacy calculus on social networking sites: the role of culture

Social Networking Sites (SNSs) have become extremely popular around the world. They rely on user-generated content to offer engaging experience to its members. Cultural differences may influence the motivation of users to create and share content on SNS. This study adopts the privacy calculus perspective to examine the role of culture in individual self-disclosure decisions. The authors use structural equation modeling and multi-group analysis to investigate this dynamics. The findings reveal the importance of cultural dimensions of individualism and uncertainty avoidance in the cognitive processes of SNS users.

The Role of Cell Sterilization in Population Based Studies of Radiogenic Second Cancers Following Radiation Therapy

Advances in radiotherapy have generated increased interest in comparative studies of treatment techniques and their effectiveness. In this respect, pediatric patients are of specific interest because of their sensitivity to radiation induced second cancers. However, due to the rarity of childhood cancers and the long latency of second cancers, large sample sizes are unavailable for the epidemiological study of contemporary radiotherapy treatments. Additionally, when specific treatments are considered, such as proton therapy, sample sizes are further reduced due to the rareness of such treatments. We propose a method to improve statistical power in micro clinical trials. Specifically, we use a more biologically relevant quantity, cancer equivalent dose (DCE), to estimate risk instead of mean absorbed dose (DMA). Our objective was to demonstrate that when DCE is used fewer subjects are needed for clinical trials. Thus, we compared the impact of DCE vs. DMA on sample size in a virtual clinical trial that estimated risk for second cancer (SC) in the thyroid following craniospinal irradiation (CSI) of pediatric patients using protons vs. photons. Dose reconstruction, risk models, and statistical analysis were used to evaluate SC risk from therapeutic and stray radiation from CSI for 18 patients. Absorbed dose was calculated in two ways: with (1) traditional DMA and (2) with DCE. DCE and DMA values were used to estimate relative risk of SC incidence (RRCE and RRMA, respectively) after proton vs. photon CSI. Ratios of RR for proton vs. photon CSI (RRRCE and RRRMA) were then used in comparative estimations of sample size to determine the minimal number of patients needed to maintain 80% statistical power when using DCE vs. DMA. For all patients, we found that protons substantially reduced the risk of developing a second thyroid cancer when compared to photon therapy. Mean RRR values were 0.052±0.014 and 0.087±0.021 for RRRMA and RRRCE, respectively. However, we did not find that use of DCE reduced the number of patents needed for acceptable statistical power (i.e, 80%). In fact, when considerations were made for RRR values that met equipoise requirements and the need for descriptive statistics, the minimum number of patients needed for a micro-clinical trial increased from 17 using DMA to 37 using DCE. Subsequent analyses revealed that for our sample, the most influential factor in determining variations in sample size was the experimental standard deviation of estimates for RRR across the patient sample. Additionally, because the relative uncertainty in dose from proton CSI was so much larger (on the order of 2000 times larger) than the other uncertainty terms, it dominated the uncertainty in RRR. Thus, we found that use of corrections for cell sterilization, in the form of DCE, may be an important and underappreciated consideration in the design of clinical trials and radio-epidemiological studies. In addition, the accurate application of cell sterilization to thyroid dose was sensitive to variations in absorbed dose, especially for proton CSI, which may stem from errors in patient positioning, range calculation, and other aspects of treatment planning and delivery.

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

The Role of Goods Trade Networks for Services Trade Volume

In this paper, we address the role of countries’ goods-trade networks for their services-trade volume. The paper employs a large cross section of bilateral trade data on aggregate cross-border goods and services sales and illustrates that the depth and overlap of two countries’ services networks induce a positive direct impact on their services-trade volume. The evidence takes into account that goods trade flows and networks are potentially endogenous so that the estimated direct effects support a causal interpretation. We find that the magnitude of the multilateral goods-trade network effect on the bilateral services-trade volume is much larger than that of bilateral goods-trade volume.

The role of deregulated E2F1 expression in brain tumors

Mutations disabling the retinoblastoma (Rb) pathway are among the most common in human cancers, including brain cancer. These mutations promote tumor development through deregulated control of the E2F family of transcription factors. E2F1 belongs to a class of E2F's identified as transcriptional activators and involved in the G1/S phase transition of the cell. However, E2F-1 presents with a paradox as it is considered to have membership in two gene classes, functioning as both an oncogene and a tumor suppressor. This unusual trait generates a degree of uncertainty on the role that E2F1 plays in the development or maintenance of any given tumor. Here we show that E2F1 functions as an oncogene in brain tumors through the generation of mice engineered to overexpress E2F1 specifically within glial cells and neuronal progenitors as directed by the GFAP promoter. Mice carrying the transgene develop with high penetrance a phenotype characterized by neurological deficits including paresia, ataxia, head tilt and seizures. MRI imagining of the tgE2F1 mice reveals a low incidence of mild hydrocephalus, and most notably, histological analysis demonstrates that 25% of tgE2F1 mice present with the spontaneous formation of malignant brain tumors. Overall these neoplasms show histological features from a wide range of aggressive brain cancers including medulloblastoma, choroid plexus carcinoma, primary neuroectodermic tumor and malignant gliomas. Isolation and characterization of astrocytes from the tgE2F1 animal reveals a highly proliferative population of cells with 55% ± 2.5 of the tgE2F1astrocytes, 35% ± 3.4 normal mouse astrocytes in S-phase and the acquired capacity to grow in anchorage independent conditions. Additionally tgE2F1 astrocytes show an aberrant phenotype with random chromosomal fusions and nearly all cells demonstrating polyploidy. Taken together, this model forces a comparison to human brain tumor formation. Mouse age as related to tumoral mimics the human scenario with juvenile tgE2F1 mice presenting embryonal tumors typically identified in children, and older tgE2F1 mice demonstrating gliomas. In this regard, this study suggests a global role for E2F1 in the formation and maintenance of multilineage brain tumors, irrefutably establishing E2F1 as an oncogene in the brain. ^

The increasing role of career guidance at the turn of the centuries

At the beginning this paper sketches trends of the rapid changes of nearly all life issues, especially in society, work behaviours, labour environment and demands for adjustment under new social values. As main factors which influence worldwide the economic development and the labour market are elaborated the globalization and liberalization process and the labour market aspects of feminization, ageing labour force, migration, unemployment as a global phenomenon and general changes in labour demand by occupations and skill level. A well-developed and highly qualified career guidance service is seen as one of the most effective instruments in solving these problems which are raised by the described developements. The personal and psychological effects of uncertainty and dislocation of people and the new requirements of the expected qualification standard make career guidance an important cornerstone to cope with these social aspects. Thus, the nature and structure of guidance and counselling are described under the new challenges. The international co-operation in the guidance sector has accompanied this process in delivering two important documents. The Mission Statement and the Ethical Standards of IAEVG, adopted by the General Assembly of IAEVG in 1995, show in what direction guidance services have to be developed.

The increasing role of career guidance at the turn of the centuries

At the beginning this paper sketches trends of the rapid changes of nearly all life issues, especially in society, work behaviours, labour environment and demands for adjustment under new social values. As main factors which influence worldwide the economic development and the labour market are elaborated the globalization and liberalization process and the labour market aspects of feminization, ageing labour force, migration, unemployment as a global phenomenon and general changes in labour demand by occupations and skill level. A well-developed and highly qualified career guidance service is seen as one of the most effective instruments in solving these problems which are raised by the described developements. The personal and psychological effects of uncertainty and dislocation of people and the new requirements of the expected qualification standard make career guidance an important cornerstone to cope with these social aspects. Thus, the nature and structure of guidance and counselling are described under the new challenges. The international co-operation in the guidance sector has accompanied this process in delivering two important documents. The Mission Statement and the Ethical Standards of IAEVG, adopted by the General Assembly of IAEVG in 1995, show in what direction guidance services have to be developed.

The increasing role of career guidance at the turn of the centuries

At the beginning this paper sketches trends of the rapid changes of nearly all life issues, especially in society, work behaviours, labour environment and demands for adjustment under new social values. As main factors which influence worldwide the economic development and the labour market are elaborated the globalization and liberalization process and the labour market aspects of feminization, ageing labour force, migration, unemployment as a global phenomenon and general changes in labour demand by occupations and skill level. A well-developed and highly qualified career guidance service is seen as one of the most effective instruments in solving these problems which are raised by the described developements. The personal and psychological effects of uncertainty and dislocation of people and the new requirements of the expected qualification standard make career guidance an important cornerstone to cope with these social aspects. Thus, the nature and structure of guidance and counselling are described under the new challenges. The international co-operation in the guidance sector has accompanied this process in delivering two important documents. The Mission Statement and the Ethical Standards of IAEVG, adopted by the General Assembly of IAEVG in 1995, show in what direction guidance services have to be developed.

Optimization of water procurement decisions in an irrigation district: the role of option contracts

Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district?s board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south-eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district?s decisions. Key words: Segura Basin, stochastic recursive programming, water markets, water supply option contract, water supply risk.