Os investidores reagem à composição das carteiras de fundos?: evidências da crise de 2008

O principal objetivo desse trabalho é identificar o impacto da composição das carteiras dos fundos sobre sua captação no mercado brasileiro. A hipótese central é que, em períodos de crise, a exacerbação da assimetria de informação acerca da qualidade dos ativos faça com que a existência de ativos com exposição ao risco de crédito privado (principalmente Certificados de Depósitos Bancários - CDBs) impacte negativamente a captação. Para testar essa hipótese foram realizadas análises de regressão em painel com dados mensais de fundos de renda fixa e referenciado, exclusivos e não exclusivos, entre 2007 e 2010. Aprofundando a análise, segregaram-se os CDBs entre aqueles emitidos por bancos grandes e médios-pequenos. Dentre os fundos não-exclusivos, encontrou-se que a proporção de CDBs na carteira impactou negativamente a captação de fundos referenciados, ao passo que a presença de CDBs de bancos médios e pequenos impactou negativamente a captação entre os fundos de renda fixa. Nos fundos exclusivos, em que se supõe que o cotista tenha maior poder de intervenção na gestão, não se identificou relação significativa entre exposição a risco de crédito e captação

Avaliação sorológica de patógenos transmitidos por carrapatos em cães urbanos e rurais do estado do Paraná, Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Parametric VaR with goodness-of-fit tests based on EDF statistics for extreme returns

Parametric VaR (Value-at-Risk) is widely used due to its simplicity and easy calculation. However, the normality assumption, often used in the estimation of the parametric VaR, does not provide satisfactory estimates for risk exposure. Therefore, this study suggests a method for computing the parametric VaR based on goodness-of-fit tests using the empirical distribution function (EDF) for extreme returns, and compares the feasibility of this method for the banking sector in an emerging market and in a developed one. The paper also discusses possible theoretical contributions in related fields like enterprise risk management (ERM). © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Risco de desordens músculo-esqueléticas nos membros superiores de graduandos de Odontologia

Este estudo teve por objetivo avaliar o risco de desenvolvimento de desordens músculo-esqueléticas nos membros superiores de graduandos de Odontologia considerando as variáveis sexo, tipo de procedimento clínico executado, região da boca tratada e prática do trabalho a quatro mãos. Foram avaliados alunos, de ambos os sexos, matriculados no oitavo semestre do curso de graduação da Faculdade de Odontologia de Araraquara - UNESP. Foram efetuadas tomadas fotográficas durante a realização de 283 procedimentos clínicos, utilizando-se máquina fotogrática digital. Para análise das fotografias, utilizou-se o programa Image Tool. As posturas de trabalho adotadas por cada estudante na sua atuação como “operador” foram observadas pelo método RULA (Rapid Upper Limb Assessment), o qual inclui o uso de um diagrama de análise de postura do indivíduo e três tabelas de escores que permitem a avaliação da exposição aos fatores de risco para o desenvolvimento de desordens músculo-esqueléticas. As fotografias foram analisadas por um professor da área de ergonomia calibrado (_=0,91). Para cada procedimento foi atribuído um escore de risco final. Os procedimentos executados foram classificados em duas grandes categorias: procedimentos preparatórios e procedimentos restauradores/reabilitadores. Os dados de risco de desordens músculoesqueléticas nos membros superiores foram apurados, e sua prevalência foi estimada por ponto e por intervalo de confiança de 95%. O estudo da associação do risco de desordens músculo-esqueléticas às variáveis de interesse foi realizado por meio do Teste de Qui-quadrado (_ 2). O nível de significância adotado foi de 5%. Observou-se que na maioria dos procedimentos executados o risco de desordens músculo-esqueléticas segundo a classificação... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)

Clinical, epidemiological and molecular features of the HIV-1 subtype C and recombinant forms that are circulating in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: The city of Sao Paulo has the highest AIDS case rate, with nearly 60% in Brazil. Despite, several studies involving molecular epidemiology, lack of data regarding a large cohort study has not been published from this city. Objectives: This study aimed to describe the HIV-1 subtypes, recombinant forms and drug resistance mutations, according to subtype, with emphasis on subtype C and BC recombinants in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Study design: RNA was extracted from the plasma samples of 302 HIV-1-seropositive subjects, of which 211 were drug-naive and 82 were exposed to ART. HIV-1 partial pol region sequences were used in phylogenetic analyses for subtyping and identification of drug resistance mutations. The envelope gene of subtype C and BC samples was also sequenced. Results: From partial pol gene analyses, 239 samples (79.1%) were assigned as subtype B, 23 (7.6%) were F1, 16 (5.3%) were subtype C and 24 (8%) were mosaics (3 CRF28/CRF29-like). The subtype C and BC recombinants were mainly identified in drug-naive patients (72.7%) and the heterosexual risk exposure category (86.3%), whereas for subtype B, these values were 69.9% and 57.3%, respectively (p = 0.97 and p = 0.015, respectively). An increasing trend of subtype C and BC recombinants was observed (p < 0.01). Conclusion: The HIV-1 subtype C and CRFs seem to have emerged over the last few years in the city of Sao Paulo, principally among the heterosexual population. These findings may have an impact on preventive measures and vaccine development in Brazil.

Clinical, epidemiological and molecular features of the HIV-1 subtype C and recombinant forms that are circulating in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract Background The city of Sao Paulo has the highest AIDS case rate, with nearly 60% in Brazil. Despite, several studies involving molecular epidemiology, lack of data regarding a large cohort study has not been published from this city. Objectives This study aimed to describe the HIV-1 subtypes, recombinant forms and drug resistance mutations, according to subtype, with emphasis on subtype C and BC recombinants in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Study design RNA was extracted from the plasma samples of 302 HIV-1-seropositive subjects, of which 211 were drug-naive and 82 were exposed to ART. HIV-1 partial pol region sequences were used in phylogenetic analyses for subtyping and identification of drug resistance mutations. The envelope gene of subtype C and BC samples was also sequenced. Results From partial pol gene analyses, 239 samples (79.1%) were assigned as subtype B, 23 (7.6%) were F1, 16 (5.3%) were subtype C and 24 (8%) were mosaics (3 CRF28/CRF29-like). The subtype C and BC recombinants were mainly identified in drug-naïve patients (72.7%) and the heterosexual risk exposure category (86.3%), whereas for subtype B, these values were 69.9% and 57.3%, respectively (p = 0.97 and p = 0.015, respectively). An increasing trend of subtype C and BC recombinants was observed (p < 0.01). Conclusion The HIV-1 subtype C and CRFs seem to have emerged over the last few years in the city of São Paulo, principally among the heterosexual population. These findings may have an impact on preventive measures and vaccine development in Brazil.

Quantificazione del rischio occupazionale: Indicatori, indici e metodologia fuzzy

La tesi affronta il concetto di esposizione al rischio occupazionale e il suo scopo è quello di indagare l’ambiente di lavoro e il comportamento dei lavoratori, con l'obiettivo di ridurre il tasso di incidenza degli infortuni sul lavoro ed eseguire la riduzione dei rischi. In primo luogo, è proposta una nuova metodologia denominata MIMOSA (Methodology for the Implementation and Monitoring of Occupational SAfety), che quantifica il livello di "salute e sicurezza" di una qualsiasi impresa. Al fine di raggiungere l’obiettivo si è reso necessario un approccio multidisciplinare in cui concetti d’ingegneria e di psicologia sono stati combinati per sviluppare una metodologia di previsione degli incidenti e di miglioramento della sicurezza sul lavoro. I risultati della sperimentazione di MIMOSA hanno spinto all'uso della Logica Fuzzy nel settore della sicurezza occupazionale per migliorare la metodologia stessa e per superare i problemi riscontrati nell’incertezza della raccolta dei dati. La letteratura mostra che i fattori umani, la percezione del rischio e il comportamento dei lavoratori in relazione al rischio percepito, hanno un ruolo molto importante nella comparsa degli incidenti. Questa considerazione ha portato ad un nuovo approccio e ad una seconda metodologia che consiste nella prevenzione di incidenti, non solo sulla base dell'analisi delle loro dinamiche passate. Infatti la metodologia considera la valutazione di un indice basato sui comportamenti proattivi dei lavoratori e sui danni potenziali degli eventi incidentali evitati. L'innovazione consiste nell'applicazione della Logica Fuzzy per tener conto dell’"indeterminatezza" del comportamento umano e del suo linguaggio naturale. In particolare l’applicazione è incentrata sulla proattività dei lavoratori e si prefigge di impedire l'evento "infortunio", grazie alla generazione di una sorta d’indicatore di anticipo. Questa procedura è stata testata su un’azienda petrolchimica italiana.

Incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index in 30 European countries

Excess adiposity is associated with increased risks of developing adult malignancies. To inform public health policy and guide further research, the incident cancer burden attributable to excess body mass index (BMI >or= 25 kg/m(2)) across 30 European countries were estimated. Population attributable risks (PARs) were calculated using European- and gender-specific risk estimates from a published meta-analysis and gender-specific mean BMI estimates from a World Health Organization Global Infobase. Country-specific numbers of new cancers were derived from Globocan2002. A ten-year lag-period between risk exposure and cancer incidence was assumed and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated in Monte Carlo simulations. In 2002, there were 2,171,351 new all cancer diagnoses in the 30 countries of Europe. Estimated PARs were 2.5% (95% CI 1.5-3.6%) in men and 4.1% (2.3-5.9%) in women. These collectively corresponded to 70,288 (95% CI 40,069-100,668) new cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed estimates were most influenced by the assumed shape of the BMI distribution in the population and cancer-specific risk estimates. In a scenario analysis of a plausible contemporary (2008) population, the estimated PARs increased to 3.2% (2.1-4.3%) and 8.6% (5.6-11.5%), respectively, in men and women. Endometrial, post-menopausal breast and colorectal cancers accounted for 65% of these cancers. This analysis quantifies the burden of incident cancers attributable to excess BMI in Europe. The estimates reported here provide a baseline for future modelling, and underline the need for research into interventions to control weight in the context of endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer.

Executive compensation and executive incentive problems: an empirical analysis

The question of whether the design of the corporate executive pay package reflects an attempt to reduce agency costs between shareholders an managers is adressed. The components of senior executive pay are found to vary systematically across firms in a manner that cannot easily be explained by tax effects, and which would indicate that individual elements of pay are aimed at controlling for limited horizon and risk exposure problems. Managerial decisions and the structure of managerial pay therefore appear to be interrelated.

Direct and indirect economic impacts of drought in the agri-food sector in the Ebro River basin (Spain).

The economic evaluation of drought impacts is essential in order to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation strategies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic impacts of a drought event on the agricultural sector and measure how they are transmitted from primary production to industrial output and related employment. We fit econometric models to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water storage. The direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity are measured through a direct attribution model. Indirect impacts on agricultural employment and the agri-food industry are evaluated through a nested indirect attribution model. The transmission of water scarcity effects from agricultural production to macroeconomic variables is measured through chained elasticities. The models allow for differentiating the impacts deriving from water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show that the importance of drought impacts are less relevant at the macroeconomic level, but are more significant for those activities directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. From a management perspective, implications of these findings are important to develop effective mitigation strategies to reduce drought risk exposure.

Desarrollo de un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales basado en las Directrices del Comité de Basilea

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal diseñar un Modelo de Gestión de Riesgos Operacionales (MGRO) según las Directrices de los Acuerdos II y III del Comité de Supervisión Bancaria de Basilea del Banco de Pagos Internacionales (CSBB-BPI). Se considera importante realizar un estudio sobre este tema dado que son los riesgos operacionales (OpR) los responsables en gran medida de las últimas crisis financieras mundiales y por la dificultad para detectarlos en las organizaciones. Se ha planteado un modelo de gestión subdividido en dos vías de influencias. La primera acoge el paradigma holístico en el que se considera que hay múltiples maneras de percibir un proceso cíclico, así como las herramientas para observar, conocer y entender el objeto o sujeto percibido. La segunda vía la representa el paradigma totalizante, en el que se obtienen datos tanto cualitativos como cuantitativos, los cuales son complementarios entre si. Por otra parte, este trabajo plantea el diseño de un programa informático de OpR Cualitativo, que ha sido diseñado para determinar la raíz de los riesgos en las organizaciones y su Valor en Riesgo Operacional (OpVaR) basado en el método del indicador básico. Aplicando el ciclo holístico al caso de estudio, se obtuvo el siguiente diseño de investigación: no experimental, univariable, transversal descriptiva, contemporánea, retrospectiva, de fuente mixta, cualitativa (fenomenológica y etnográfica) y cuantitativa (descriptiva y analítica). La toma de decisiones y recolección de información se realizó en dos fases en la unidad de estudio. En la primera se tomó en cuenta la totalidad de la empresa Corpoelec-EDELCA, en la que se presentó un universo estadístico de 4271 personas, una población de 2390 personas y una unidad de muestreo de 87 personas. Se repitió el proceso en una segunda fase, para la Central Hidroeléctrica Simón Bolívar, y se determinó un segundo universo estadístico de 300 trabajadores, una población de 191 personas y una muestra de 58 profesionales. Como fuentes de recolección de información se utilizaron fuentes primarias y secundarias. Para recabar la información primaria se realizaron observaciones directas, dos encuestas para detectar las áreas y procesos con mayor nivel de riesgos y se diseñó un cuestionario combinado con otra encuesta (ad hoc) para establecer las estimaciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas operacionales. La información de fuentes secundarias se extrajo de las bases de datos de Corpoelec-EDELCA, de la IEA, del Banco Mundial, del CSBB-BPI, de la UPM y de la UC at Berkeley, entre otras. Se establecieron las distribuciones de frecuencia y de severidad de pérdidas operacionales como las variables independientes y el OpVaR como la variable dependiente. No se realizó ningún tipo de seguimiento o control a las variables bajo análisis, ya que se consideraron estas para un instante especifico y solo se determinan con la finalidad de establecer la existencia y valoración puntual de los OpR en la unidad de estudio. El análisis cualitativo planteado en el MGRO, permitió detectar que en la unidad de investigación, el 67% de los OpR detectados provienen de dos fuentes principales: procesos (32%) y eventos externos (35%). Adicionalmente, la validación del MGRO en Corpoelec-EDELCA, permitió detectar que el 63% de los OpR en la organización provienen de tres categorías principales, siendo los fraudes externos los presentes con mayor regularidad y severidad de pérdidas en la organización. La exposición al riesgo se determinó fundamentándose en la adaptación del concepto de OpVaR que generalmente se utiliza para series temporales y que en el caso de estudio presenta la primicia de aplicarlo a datos cualitativos transformados con la escala Likert. La posibilidad de utilizar distribuciones de probabilidad típicas para datos cuantitativos en distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas con datos de origen cualitativo fueron analizadas. Para el 64% de los OpR estudiados se obtuvo que la frecuencia tiene un comportamiento semejante al de la distribución de probabilidad de Poisson y en un 55% de los casos para la severidad de pérdidas se obtuvo a las log-normal como las distribuciones de probabilidad más comunes, con lo que se concluyó que los enfoques sugeridos por el BCBS-BIS para series de tiempo son aplicables a los datos cualitativos. Obtenidas las distribuciones de frecuencia y severidad de pérdidas, se convolucionaron estas implementando el método de Montecarlo, con lo que se obtuvieron los enfoques de distribuciones de pérdidas (LDA) para cada uno de los OpR. El OpVaR se dedujo como lo sugiere el CSBB-BPI del percentil 99,9 o 99% de cada una de las LDA, obteniéndose que los OpR presentan un comportamiento similar al sistema financiero, resultando como los de mayor peligrosidad los que se ubican con baja frecuencia y alto impacto, por su dificultad para ser detectados y monitoreados. Finalmente, se considera que el MGRO permitirá a los agentes del mercado y sus grupos de interés conocer con efectividad, fiabilidad y eficiencia el status de sus entidades, lo que reducirá la incertidumbre de sus inversiones y les permitirá establecer una nueva cultura de gestión en sus organizaciones. ABSTRACT This research has as main objective the design of a Model for Operational Risk Management (MORM) according to the guidelines of Accords II and III of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision of the Bank for International Settlements (BCBS- BIS). It is considered important to conduct a study on this issue since operational risks (OpR) are largely responsible for the recent world financial crisis and due to the difficulty in detecting them in organizations. A management model has been designed which is divided into two way of influences. The first supports the holistic paradigm in which it is considered that there are multiple ways of perceiving a cyclical process and contains the tools to observe, know and understand the subject or object perceived. The second way is the totalizing paradigm, in which both qualitative and quantitative data are obtained, which are complementary to each other. Moreover, this paper presents the design of qualitative OpR software which is designed to determine the root of risks in organizations and their Operational Value at Risk (OpVaR) based on the basic indicator approach. Applying the holistic cycle to the case study, the following research design was obtained: non- experimental, univariate, descriptive cross-sectional, contemporary, retrospective, mixed-source, qualitative (phenomenological and ethnographic) and quantitative (descriptive and analytical). Decision making and data collection was conducted in two phases in the study unit. The first took into account the totality of the Corpoelec-EDELCA company, which presented a statistical universe of 4271 individuals, a population of 2390 individuals and a sampling unit of 87 individuals. The process was repeated in a second phase to the Simon Bolivar Hydroelectric Power Plant, and a second statistical universe of 300 workers, a population of 191 people and a sample of 58 professionals was determined. As sources of information gathering primary and secondary sources were used. To obtain the primary information direct observations were conducted and two surveys to identify the areas and processes with higher risks were designed. A questionnaire was combined with an ad hoc survey to establish estimates of frequency and severity of operational losses was also considered. The secondary information was extracted from the databases of Corpoelec-EDELCA, IEA, the World Bank, the BCBS-BIS, UPM and UC at Berkeley, among others. The operational loss frequency distributions and the operational loss severity distributions were established as the independent variables and OpVaR as the dependent variable. No monitoring or control of the variables under analysis was performed, as these were considered for a specific time and are determined only for the purpose of establishing the existence and timely assessment of the OpR in the study unit. Qualitative analysis raised in the MORM made it possible to detect that in the research unit, 67% of detected OpR come from two main sources: external processes (32%) and external events (35%). Additionally, validation of the MORM in Corpoelec-EDELCA, enabled to estimate that 63% of OpR in the organization come from three main categories, with external fraud being present more regularly and greater severity of losses in the organization. Risk exposure is determined basing on adapting the concept of OpVaR generally used for time series and in the case study it presents the advantage of applying it to qualitative data transformed with the Likert scale. The possibility of using typical probability distributions for quantitative data in loss frequency and loss severity distributions with data of qualitative origin were analyzed. For the 64% of OpR studied it was found that the frequency has a similar behavior to that of the Poisson probability distribution and 55% of the cases for loss severity it was found that the log-normal were the most common probability distributions. It was concluded that the approach suggested by the BCBS-BIS for time series can be applied to qualitative data. Once obtained the distributions of loss frequency and severity have been obtained they were subjected to convolution implementing the Monte Carlo method. Thus the loss distribution approaches (LDA) were obtained for each of the OpR. The OpVaR was derived as suggested by the BCBS-BIS 99.9 percentile or 99% of each of the LDA. It was determined that the OpR exhibits a similar behavior to the financial system, being the most dangerous those with low frequency and high impact for their difficulty in being detected and monitored. Finally, it is considered that the MORM will allows market players and their stakeholders to know with effectiveness, efficiency and reliability the status of their entities, which will reduce the uncertainty of their investments and enable them to establish a new management culture in their organizations.

Diseño de un modelo para la identificación y análisis de tramos de carreteras sin accidentes : una nueva visión de la seguridad vial

El planteamiento tradicional de análisis de la accidentalidad en carretera pasa por la consideración de herramientas paliativas, como son la identificación y gestión de los puntos negros o tramos de concentración de accidentes, o preventivas, como las auditorías e inspecciones de seguridad vial. En esta tesis doctoral se presenta un planteamiento complementario a estas herramientas, desde una perspectiva novedosa: la consideración de los tramos donde no se producen accidentes; son los denominados Tramos Blancos. La tesis persigue demostrar que existen determinados parámetros del diseño de las carreteras y del tráfico que, bajo características generales similares de las vías, tienen influencia en el hecho de que se produzcan o no accidentes, adicionalmente a la exposición al riesgo, como factor principal, y a otros factores. La propia definición de los Tramos Blancos, entendidos como tramos de carreteras de longitud representativa donde no se han producido accidentes con víctimas mortales o heridos graves durante un periodo largo de tiempo, garantiza que esta situación no se produzca como consecuencia de la aleatoriedad de los accidentes, sino que pudiera deberse a una confluencia específica de determinados parámetros de la geometría de la vía y del tráfico total y de vehículos pesados. Para el desarrollo de esta investigación se han considerado la red de autopistas de peaje y las carreteras convencionales de la Red del Estado de España, que supone un total de 17.000 kilómetros, y los datos de accidentes con víctimas mortales y heridos graves en el periodo 2006-2010, ambos incluidos, en estas redes (un total de 10.000 accidentes). La red viaria objeto de análisis supone el 65% de la longitud de la Red de Carreteras del Estado, por la que circula el 33% de su tráfico; en ella se produjeron en el año 2013 el 47% de los accidentes con víctimas y el 60% de las víctimas mortales de la Red de Carreteras del Estado. Durante la investigación se ha desarrollado una base de datos de 250.130 registros y más de 3.5 millones de datos en el caso de las autopistas de peaje de la Red de Carreteras del Estado y de 935.402 registros y más de 14 millones de datos en el caso de la red convencional del Estado analizada. Tanto las autopistas de peaje como las carreteras convencionales han sido clasificadas según sus características de tráfico, de manera que se valoren vías con nivel de exposición al riesgo similar. Para cada tipología de vía, se ha definido como longitud de referencia para que un tramo se considere Tramo Blanco la longitud igual al percentil 95 de las longitudes de tramos sin accidentes con heridos graves o víctimas mortales durante el periodo 2006-2010. En el caso de las autopistas de peaje, en la tipología que ha sido considerada para la definición del modelo, esta longitud de referencia se estableció en 14.5 kilómetros, mientras que en el caso de las carreteras convencionales, se estableció en 7.75 kilómetros. Para cada uno de los tipos de vía considerados se han construido una base de datos en la que se han incluido las variables de existencia o no de Tramo Blanco, así como las variables de tráfico (intensidad media diaria total, intensidad de vehículos pesados y porcentaje de vehículos pesados ), la velocidad media y las variables de geometría (número de carriles, ancho de carril, ancho de arcén derecho e izquierdo, ancho de calzada y plataforma, radio, peralte, pendiente y visibilidad directa e inversa en los casos disponibles); como variables adicionales, se han incluido el número de accidentes con víctimas, los fallecidos y heridos graves, índices de peligrosidad, índices de mortalidad y exposición al riesgo. Los trabajos desarrollados para explicar la presencia de Tramos Blancos en la red de autopistas de peaje han permitido establecer las diferencias entre los valores medios de las variables de tráfico y diseño geométrico en Tramos Blancos respecto a tramos no blancos y comprobar que estas diferencias son significativas. Así mismo, se ha podido calibrar un modelo de regresión logística que explica parcialmente la existencia de Tramos Blancos, para rangos de tráfico inferiores a 10.000 vehículos diarios y para tráficos entre 10.000 y 15.000 vehículos diarios. Para el primer grupo (menos de 10.000 vehículos al día), las variables que han demostrado tener una mayor influencia en la existencia de Tramo Blanco son la velocidad media de circulación, el ancho de carril, el ancho de arcén izquierdo y el porcentaje de vehículos pesados. Para el segundo grupo (entre 10.000 y 15.000 vehículos al día), las variables independientes más influyentes en la existencia de Tramo Blanco han sido la velocidad de circulación, el ancho de calzada y el porcentaje de vehículos pesados. En el caso de las carreteras convencionales, los diferentes análisis realizados no han permitido identificar un modelo que consiga una buena clasificación de los Tramos Blancos. Aun así, se puede afirmar que los valores medios de las variables de intensidad de tráfico, radio, visibilidad, peralte y pendiente presentan diferencias significativas en los Tramos Blancos respecto a los no blancos, que varían en función de la intensidad de tráfico. Los resultados obtenidos deben considerarse como la conclusión de un análisis preliminar, dado que existen otros parámetros, tanto de diseño de la vía como de la circulación, el entorno, el factor humano o el vehículo que podrían tener una influencia en el hecho que se analiza, y no se han considerado por no disponer de esta información. En esta misma línea, el análisis de las circunstancias que rodean al viaje que el usuario de la vía realiza, su tipología y motivación es una fuente de información de interés de la que no se tienen datos y que permitiría mejorar el análisis de accidentalidad en general, y en particular el de esta investigación. Adicionalmente, se reconocen limitaciones en el desarrollo de esta investigación, en las que sería preciso profundizar en el futuro, reconociendo así nuevas líneas de investigación de interés. The traditional approach to road accidents analysis has been based in the use of palliative tools, such as black spot (or road sections) identification and management, or preventive tools, such as road safety audits and inspections. This thesis shows a complementary approach to the existing tools, from a new perspective: the consideration of road sections where no accidents have occurred; these are the so-called White Road Sections. The aim of this thesis is to show that there are certain design parameters and traffic characteristics which, under similar circumstances for roads, have influence in the fact that accidents occur, in addition to the main factor, which is the risk exposure, and others. White Road Sections, defined as road sections of a representative length, where no fatal accidents or accidents involving serious injured have happened during a long period of time, should not be a product of randomness of accidents; on the contrary, they might be the consequence of a confluence of specific parameters of road geometry, traffic volumes and heavy vehicles traffic volumes. For this research, the toll motorway network and single-carriageway network of the Spanish National Road Network have been considered, which is a total of 17.000 kilometers; fatal accidents and those involving serious injured from the period 2006-2010 have been considered (a total number of 10.000 accidents). The road network covered means 65% of the total length of the National Road Network, which allocates 33% of traffic volume; 47% of accidents with victims and 60% of fatalities happened in these road networks during 2013. During the research, a database of 250.130 registers and more than 3.5 million data for toll motorways and 935.042 registers and more than 14 million data for single carriageways of the National Road Network was developed. Both toll motorways and single-carriageways have been classified according to their traffic characteristics, so that the analysis is performed over roads with similar risk exposure. For each road type, a reference length for White Road Section has been defined, as the 95 percentile of all road sections lengths without accidents (with fatalities or serious injured) for 2006-2010. For toll motorways, this reference length concluded to be 14.5 kilometers, while for single-carriageways, it was defined as 7.75 kilometers. A detailed database was developed for each type of road, including the variable “existence of White Road Section”, as well as variables of traffic (average daily traffic volume, heavy vehicles average daily traffic and percentage of heavy vehicles from the total traffic volume), average speed and geometry variables (number of lanes, width of lane, width of shoulders, carriageway width, platform width, radius, superelevation, slope and visibility); additional variables, such as number of accidents with victims, number of fatalities or serious injured, risk and fatality rates and risk exposure, have also been included. Research conducted for the explanation of the presence of White Road Sections in the toll motorway network have shown statistically significant differences in the average values of variables of traffic and geometric design in White Road Sections compared with other road sections. In addition, a binary logistic model for the partial explanation of the presence of White Road Sections was developed, for traffic volumes lower than 10.000 daily vehicles and for those running from 10.000 to 15.000 daily vehicles. For the first group, the most influent variables for the presence of White Road Sections were the average speed, width of lane, width of left shoulder and percentage of heavy vehicles. For the second group, the most influent variables were found to be average speed, carriageway width and percentage of heavy vehicles. For single-carriageways, the different analysis developed did not reach a proper model for the explanation of White Road Sections. However, it can be assumed that the average values of the variables of traffic volume, radius, visibility, superelevation and slope show significant differences in White Road Sections if compared with others, which also vary with traffic volumes. Results obtained should be considered as a conclusion of a preliminary analysis, as there are other parameters, not only design-related, but also regarding traffic, environment, human factor and vehicle which could have an influence in the fact under research, but this information has not been considered in the analysis, as it was not available. In parallel, the analysis of the circumstances around the trip, including its typology and motivation is an interesting source of information, from which data are not available; the availability of this information would be useful for the improvement of accident analysis, in general, and for this research work, in particular. In addition, there are some limitations in the development of the research work; it would be necessary to develop an in-depth analysis in the future, thus assuming new research lines of interest.

A Viable Alternative to Basel III Prudential Capital Rules. CEPS Policy Brief No. 291, May 2013

Stefano Micossi argues in this paper that the Basel framework for bank prudential requirements is deeply flawed and that the Basel III revision has failed to correct these flaws, making the system even more complicated, opaque and open to manipulation. In practice, he finds that the present system does not offer regulators and financial markets a reliable capital standard for banks and its divergent implementation in the main jurisdictions of the European Union and the United States has broken the market into special fiefdoms governed by national regulators in response to untoward special interests. The time is ripe to stop tinkering with minor adjustment and revisions in order to rescue the system, because the system cannot be rescued. In response to the current situation, Micossi calls for abandoning reference to risk-weighted assets calculated by banks with their internal risk management models for the determination of banks’ prudential capital, together with the preoccupation with the asset side of banks in correcting for risk exposure. He suggests that the alternative may be provided by a combination of a straight capital ratio and a properly designed deposit insurance system. It is a logical, complete and much less distortive alternative; it would serve better the cause of financial stability as well as the interest of the banks in clear, transparent and level playing field.

Parental occupation and Ewing's sarcoma: Pooled and meta-analysis

Etiologic data on Ewing's sarcoma family of tumors (ESFT) are limited, with only 5 case-control studies reported. Interesting associations, particularly related to parental occupation, have been noted, but results are somewhat inconsistent. We conducted a pooled analysis of 3 case-control studies to assess the overall associations between parental occupation and ESFT. The pooled analysis provided data on parental occupational exposure on 199 cases of ESFT and 1,451 controls. The pooled odds ratio for the periconception and gestation periods were 2.3 (95% CI = 1.3-4.1) for children whose fathers had worked on farms and 3.9 (95% CI 1.6-9.9) for those whose mothers had farmed. For the periconception and gestation periods, there was a 3.5-fold increased risk for those with both parents having farmed and a doubling of risk for those with at least one parent having farmed; pattern of increasing risk with increasing number of years of postnatal parental exposure to farms was seen. No other occupational group (or more narrowly defined occupations) had other than minor inconsistent associations with the occurrence of ESFT. In addition, we conducted a meta-analysis of farm occupation (a main risk factor) including all 4 case-control studies that collected required information to consider parental occupation. Results of the meta-analysis were consistent with those from the pooled analysis. This collaborative analysis of available individual data on parental occupation and ESFT in the offspring provides evidence supporting the hypothesis of an association between ESFT and parental occupation in farming. © 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Accounting for derivatives:an evaluation of reporting practice by UK banks

In 1998 the Accounting Standards Board (ASB) published FRS 13, ‘Derivatives and other Financial Instruments: Disclosures’. This laid down the requirements for disclosures of an entity’s policies, objectives and strategies in using financial instruments, their impact on its risk, performance and financial condition, and details of how risks are managed. FRS 13 became effective in March 1999, and this paper uses the 1999 annual reports of UK banks to evaluate the usefulness of disclosures from a user’s perspective. Usefulness is measured in terms of the criteria of materiality, relevance, reliability, comparability and understandability as defined in the ASB’s Statement of Principles (ASB, 1999). Our findings suggest that the narrative disclosures are generic in nature, the numerical data incomplete and not always comparable, and that it is difficult for the user to combine both narrative and numerical information in order to assess the banks’ risk profile. Our overall conclusion is therefore that current UK financial reporting practices are of limited help to users wishing to assess the scale of an institution’s financial risk exposure.