Stock-rebuilding time isopleths and constant-F stock-rebuilding plans for overfished stocks

Stock-rebuilding time isopleths relate constant levels of fishing mortality (F), stock biomass, and management goals to rebuilding times for overfished stocks. We used simulation models with uncertainty about FMSY and variability in annual intrinsic growth rates (ry) to calculate rebuilding time isopleths for Georges Bank yellowtail flounder, Limanda ferruginea, and cowcod rockfish, Sebastes levis, in the Southern California Bight. Stock-rebuilding time distributions from stochastic models were variable and right-skewed, indicating that rebuilding may take less or substantially more time than expected. The probability of long rebuilding times increased with lower biomass, higher F, uncertainty about FMSY, and autocorrelation in ry values. Uncertainty about FMSY had the greatest effect on rebuilding times. Median recovery times from simulations were insensitive to model assumptions about uncertainty and variability, suggesting that median recovery times should be considered in rebuilding plans. Isopleths calculated in previous studies by deterministic models approximate median, rather than mean, rebuilding times. Stochastic models allow managers to specify and evaluate the risk (measured as a probability) of not achieving a rebuilding goal according to schedule. Rebuilding time isopleths can be used for stocks with a range of life histories and can be based on any type of population dynamics model. They are directly applicable with constant F rebuilding plans but are also useful in other cases. We used new algorithms for simulating autocorrelated process errors from a gamma distribution and evaluated sensitivity to statistical distributions assumed for ry. Uncertainty about current biomass and fishing mortality rates can be considered with rebuilding time isopleths in evaluating and designing constant-F rebuilding plans.

Movements, behavior, and habitat selection of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, ascertained through archival tags

Ninety-six bigeye tuna (88– 134 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival (electronic data storage) tags near fish-aggregating devices (FADs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) during April 2000. Twenty-nine fish were recaptured, and the data from twenty-seven tags were successfully downloaded and processed. Time at liberty ranged from 8 to 446 days, and data for 23 fish at liberty for 30 days or more are presented. The accuracy in geolocation estimates, derived from the light level data, is about 2 degrees in latitude and 0.5 degrees in longitude in this region. The movement paths derived from the filtered geolocation estimates indicated that none of the fish traveled west of 110°W during the period between release and recapture. The null hypothesis that the movement path is random was rejected in 17 of the 22 statistical tests of the observed movement paths. The estimated mean velocity was 117 km/d. The fish exhibited occasional deep-diving behavior, and some dives exceeded 1000 m where temperatures were less than 3°C. Evaluations of timed depth records, resulted in the discrimination of three distinct behaviors: 54.3% of all days were classified as unassociated (with a floating object) type-1 behavior, 27.7% as unassociated type-2 behavior, and 18.7% as behavior associated with a floating object. The mean residence time at floating objects was 3.1 d. Data sets separated into day and night were used to evaluate diel differences in behavior and habitat selection. When the fish were exhibiting unassociated type-1 behavior (diel vertical migrations), they were mostly at depths of less than 50 m (within the mixed layer) throughout the night, and during the day between 200 and 300 m and 13° and 14°C. They shifted their average depths in conjunction with dawn and dusk events, presumably tracking the deep-scattering layer as a foraging strategy. There were also observed changes in the average nighttime depth distributions of the fish in relation to moon phase.

Markovian bulk-arriving queues with state-dependent control at idle time

This paper considers a Markovian bulk-arriving queue modified to allow both mass arrivals when the queue is idle and mass departures which allow for the possibility of removing the entire workload. Properties of queues which terminate when the server becomes idle are developed first, since these play a key role in later developments. Results for the case of mass arrivals, but no mass annihilation, are then constructed with specific attention being paid to recurrence properties, equilibrium queue-size structure, and waiting-time distribution. A closed-form expression for the expected queue size and its Laplace transform are also established. All of these results are then generalised to allow for the removal of the entire workload, with closed-form expressions being developed for the equilibrium size and waiting-time distributions.

Recommendations on the nature of the passenger response time distribution to be used in the MSC 1033 assembly time analysis based on data derived from sea trials

The passenger response time distributions adopted by the International Maritime Organisation (IMO)in their assessment of the assembly time for passanger ships involves two key assumptions. The first is that the response time distribution assumes the form of a uniform random distribution and the second concerns the actual response times. These two assumptions are core to the validity of the IMO analysis but are not based on real data, being the recommendations of an IMO committee. In this paper, response time data collected from assembly trials conducted at sea on a real passanger vessel using actual passangers are presented and discussed. Unlike the IMO specified response time distributions, the data collected from these trials displays a log-normal distribution, similar to that found in land based environments. Based on this data, response time distributions for use in the IMO assesmbly for the day and night scenarios are suggested

Investigating the impact of occupant response time on computer simulations of the WTC North Tower evacuation

This work explores the impact of response time distributions on high-rise building evacuation. The analysis utilises response times extracted from printed accounts and interviews of evacuees from the WTC North Tower evacuation of 11 September 2001. Evacuation simulations produced using these “real” response time distributions are compared with simulations produced using instant and engineering response time distributions. Results suggest that while typical engineering approximations to the response time distribution may produce reasonable evacuation times for up to 90% of the building population, using this approach may underestimate total evacuation times by as much as 61%. These observations are applicable to situations involving large high-rise buildings in which travel times are generally expected to be greater than response times

THE MARINE RADIOCARBON BOMB PULSE ACROSS THE TEMPERATE NORTH ATLANTIC: A COMPILATION OF Delta C-14 TIME HISTORIES FROM ARCTICA ISLANDICA GROWTH INCREMENTS

Marine radiocarbon bomb-pulse time histories of annually resolved archives from temperate regions have been underexploited. We present here series of Delta C-14 excess from known-age annual increments of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Arctica islandica from 4 sites across the coastal North Atlantic (German Bight, North Sea; Tromso, north Norway; Siglufjordur, north Icelandic shelf; Grimsey, north Icelandic shelf) combined with published series from Georges Bank and Sable Bank (NW Atlantic) and the Oyster Ground (North Sea). The atmospheric bomb pulse is shown to be a step-function whose response in the marine environment is immediate but of smaller amplitude and which has a longer decay time as a result of the much larger marine carbon reservoir. Attenuation is determined by the regional hydrographic setting of the sites, vertical mixing, processes controlling the isotopic exchange of C-14 at the air-sea boundary, C-14 content of the freshwater flux, primary productivity, and the residence time of organic matter in the sediment mixed layer. The inventories form a sequence from high magnitude-early peak (German Bight) to low magnitude-late peak (Grimsey). All series show a rapid response to the increase in atmospheric Delta C-14 excess but a slow response to the subsequent decline resulting from the succession of rapid isotopic air-sea exchange followed by the more gradual isotopic equilibration in the mixed layer due to the variable marine carbon reservoir and incorporation of organic carbon from the sediment mixed layer. The data constitute calibration series for the use of the bomb pulse as a high-resolution dating tool in the marine environment and as a tracer of coastal ocean water masses.

Some bivariate life time models in discrete time"

The term reliability of an equipment or device is often meant to indicate the probability that it carries out the functions expected of it adequately or without failure and within specified performance limits at a given age for a desired mission time when put to use under the designated application and operating environmental stress. A broad classification of the approaches employed in relation to reliability studies can be made as probabilistic and deterministic, where the main interest in the former is to device tools and methods to identify the random mechanism governing the failure process through a proper statistical frame work, while the latter addresses the question of finding the causes of failure and steps to reduce individual failures thereby enhancing reliability. In the probabilistic attitude to which the present study subscribes to, the concept of life distribution, a mathematical idealisation that describes the failure times, is fundamental and a basic question a reliability analyst has to settle is the form of the life distribution. It is for no other reason that a major share of the literature on the mathematical theory of reliability is focussed on methods of arriving at reasonable models of failure times and in showing the failure patterns that induce such models. The application of the methodology of life time distributions is not confined to the assesment of endurance of equipments and systems only, but ranges over a wide variety of scientific investigations where the word life time may not refer to the length of life in the literal sense, but can be concieved in its most general form as a non-negative random variable. Thus the tools developed in connection with modelling life time data have found applications in other areas of research such as actuarial science, engineering, biomedical sciences, economics, extreme value theory etc.

An AeroCom assessment of black carbon in Arctic snow and sea ice

Though many global aerosols models prognose surface deposition, only a few models have been used to directly simulate the radiative effect from black carbon (BC) deposition to snow and sea ice. Here, we apply aerosol deposition fields from 25 models contributing to two phases of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project to simulate and evaluate within-snow BC concentrations and radiative effect in the Arctic. We accomplish this by driving the offline land and sea ice components of the Community Earth System Model with different deposition fields and meteorological conditions from 2004 to 2009, during which an extensive field campaign of BC measurements in Arctic snow occurred. We find that models generally underestimate BC concentrations in snow in northern Russia and Norway, while overestimating BC amounts elsewhere in the Arctic. Although simulated BC distributions in snow are poorly correlated with measurements, mean values are reasonable. The multi-model mean (range) bias in BC concentrations, sampled over the same grid cells, snow depths, and months of measurements, are −4.4 (−13.2 to +10.7) ng g−1 for an earlier phase of AeroCom models (phase I), and +4.1 (−13.0 to +21.4) ng g−1 for a more recent phase of AeroCom models (phase II), compared to the observational mean of 19.2 ng g−1. Factors determining model BC concentrations in Arctic snow include Arctic BC emissions, transport of extra-Arctic aerosols, precipitation, deposition efficiency of aerosols within the Arctic, and meltwater removal of particles in snow. Sensitivity studies show that the model–measurement evaluation is only weakly affected by meltwater scavenging efficiency because most measurements were conducted in non-melting snow. The Arctic (60–90° N) atmospheric residence time for BC in phase II models ranges from 3.7 to 23.2 days, implying large inter-model variation in local BC deposition efficiency. Combined with the fact that most Arctic BC deposition originates from extra-Arctic emissions, these results suggest that aerosol removal processes are a leading source of variation in model performance. The multi-model mean (full range) of Arctic radiative effect from BC in snow is 0.15 (0.07–0.25) W m−2 and 0.18 (0.06–0.28) W m−2 in phase I and phase II models, respectively. After correcting for model biases relative to observed BC concentrations in different regions of the Arctic, we obtain a multi-model mean Arctic radiative effect of 0.17 W m−2 for the combined AeroCom ensembles. Finally, there is a high correlation between modeled BC concentrations sampled over the observational sites and the Arctic as a whole, indicating that the field campaign provided a reasonable sample of the Arctic.

Permian non-marine bivalves of the Falkland Islands and their palaeoenvironmental significance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Interaction between poly(ethylene glycol) and C12E8 investigated by dynamic light scattering, time-resolved fluorescence quenching, and calorimetry

Dynamic light scattering (DLS), time-resolved fluorescence quenching (TRFQ), and isothermal titration microcalorimetry have been used to show that, in dilute solution, low molecular weight poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG, M-w = 12 kDa) interacts with the nonionic surfactant octaethylene glycol n-dodecyl monoether, C12E8, to form a complex. Whereas the relaxation time distributions for the binary C12E8/water and PEG/water systems are unimodal, in the ternary mixtures they may be either uni- or bimodal depending on the relative concentrations of the components. At low concentrations of PEG or surfactant, the components of the relaxation time distribution are unresolvable, but the distribution becomes bimodal at higher concentrations of either polymer or surfactant. For the ternary system in excess surfactant, we ascribe, on the basis of the changes in apparent hydrodynamic radii and the scattered intensities, the fast mode to a single micelle, the surface of which is associated with the polymer and the slow mode to a similar complex but containing two or three micelles per PEG chain. Titration microcalorimetry results show that the interaction between C12E8, and PEG is exothermic and about 1 kJ mol(-1) at concentrations higher than the CMC of C12E8. The aggregation number, obtained by TRFQ, is roughly constant when either the PEG or the C12E8 concentration is increased at a given concentration of the second component, owing to the increasing amount of surfactant micelles inside the complex.

Permian non-marine bivalves of the Falkland Islands and their palaeoenvironmental significance

We describe the occurrence of non-marine bivalves in exposures of the Middle Permian (Capitanian) Brenton Loch Formation on the southern shore of Choiseul Sound, East Falklands. The bivalves are associated with ichnofossils and were collected from a bed in the upper part of the formation, within a 25 cm thick interval of dark siltstones and mudstones with planar lamination, overlain by massive sandstones. The shells are articulated, with the valves either splayed open or closed. At the top of the succession, mudstone beds nearly 1.5 m above the bivalve-bearing layers yielded well-preserved Glossopteris sp. cf. G. communis leaf fossils. The closed articulated condition of some shells indicates preservation under high sedimentation rates with low residence time of bioclasts at the sediment/water interface. However, the presence of specimens with splayed shells is usually correlated to the slow decay of the shell ligament in oxygen-deficient bottom waters. The presence of complete carbonized leaves of Glossopteris associated with the bivalve-bearing levels also suggests a possibly dysoxic-anoxic bottom environment. Overall, our data suggest that the bivalves were preserved by abrupt burial, possibly by distal sediment flows into a Brenton Loch lake, and may represent autochthonous to parautochthonous fossil accumulations. The shells resemble those of anthracosiids and are herein assigned to Palaeanodonta sp. aff. P. dubia, a species also found in the Permian succession of the Karoo Basin, South Africa. Our results confirm that (a) the true distributions in space and time of all Permian non-marine (freshwater) bivalves are not yet well known, and (b) there is no evidence for marine conditions in the upper part of the Brenton Loch Formation.

Re-evaluation of pulmonary titanium dioxide nanoparticle distribution using the "relative deposition index": Evidence for clearance through microvasculature

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Translocation of nanoparticles (NP) from the pulmonary airways into other pulmonary compartments or the systemic circulation is controversially discussed in the literature. In a previous study it was shown that titanium dioxide (TiO2) NP were "distributed in four lung compartments (air-filled spaces, epithelium/endothelium, connective tissue, capillary lumen) in correlation with compartment size". It was concluded that particles can move freely between these tissue compartments. To analyze whether the distribution of TiO2 NP in the lungs is really random or shows a preferential targeting we applied a newly developed method for comparing NP distributions. METHODS: Rat lungs exposed to an aerosol containing TiO2 NP were prepared for light and electron microscopy at 1 h and at 24 h after exposure. Numbers of TiO2 NP associated with each compartment were counted using energy filtering transmission electron microscopy. Compartment size was estimated by unbiased stereology from systematically sampled light micrographs. Numbers of particles were related to compartment size using a relative deposition index and chi-squared analysis. RESULTS: Nanoparticle distribution within the four compartments was not random at 1 h or at 24 h after exposure. At 1 h the connective tissue was the preferential target of the particles. At 24 h the NP were preferentially located in the capillary lumen. CONCLUSION: We conclude that TiO2 NP do not move freely between pulmonary tissue compartments, although they can pass from one compartment to another with relative ease. The residence time of NP in each tissue compartment of the respiratory system depends on the compartment and the time after exposure. It is suggested that a small fraction of TiO2 NP are rapidly transported from the airway lumen to the connective tissue and subsequently released into the systemic circulation.

Das prognosebasierte Reservierungsverfahren - ein Ansatz zur Reduzierung der mittleren Fahrzeit in einer Regalfläche

Die neu entwickelte Belegungsstrategie basiert auf prognostizierten Verweildauern (VWD) und Zwischenankunftszeiten der Ladeeinheiten (LE) des Sortiments. Für jede Ladeeinheit, die im Lager ankommt wird berechnet, wie viele Ladeeinheiten während der Verweildauer dieser aktuellen Ladeeinheit voraussichtlich ankommen und das Lager auch in diesem VWD-Zeitraum wieder verlassen. In Abhängigkeit der aktuellen Lagerbelegung werden für die in dem Zeitraum ankommenden Ladeeinheiten Lagerfächer reserviert und erst anschließend die eingehende Ladeeinheit in das fahrzeitgünstigste, freie und nicht reservierte Lagerfach eingelagert. Eine zusätzliche Berücksichtigung des Energiebedarfes für die Ein- und Auslagerung ist möglich. Das prognosebasierte Reservierungsverfahren wurde neben den gängigen Belegungsstrategien in einem parametrisierbaren Simulationsmodell umgesetzt. Die Belegungsstrategien wurden anhand verschiedener Szenarien getestet und verglichen. Ein zusätzlich entwickelter Benchmark gibt Auskunft über die Qualität der Simulationsergebnisse.

Using 18O/2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr and CFCs to determine mean residence times and water origin in the Grazer and Leibnitzer Feld groundwater bodies (Austria)

Two groundwater bodies, Grazer Feld and Leibnitzer Feld, with surface areas of 166 and 103 km2 respectively are characterised for the first time by measuring the combination of d18O/d2H, 3H/3He, 85Kr, CFC-11, CFC-12 and hydrochemistry in 34 monitoring wells in 2009/2010. The timescales of groundwater recharge have been characterised by 131 d18O measurements of well and surface water sampled on a seasonal basis. Most monitoring wells show a seasonal variation or indicate variable contributions of the main river Mur (0–30%, max. 70%) and/or other rivers having their recharge areas in higher altitudes. Combined d18O/d2H-measurements indicate that 65–75% of groundwater recharge in the unusual wet year of 2009 was from precipitation in the summer based on values from the Graz meteorological station. Monitoring wells downstream of gravel pit lakes show a clear evaporation trend. A boron–nitrate differentiation plot shows more frequent boron-rich water in the more urbanised Grazer Feld and more frequent nitrate-rich water in the more agricultural used Leibnitzer Feld indicating that a some of the nitrate load in the Grazer Feld comes from urban sewer water. Several lumped parameter models based on tritium input data from Graz and monthly data from the river Mur (Spielfeld) since 1977 yield a Mean Residence Time (MRT) for the Mur-water itself between 3 and 4 years in this area. Data from d18O, 3H/3He measurements at the Wagna lysimeter station supports the conclusion that 90% of the groundwaters in the Grazer Feld and 73% in the Leibnitzer Feld have MRTs of <5 years. Only in a few groundwaters were MRTs of 6–10 or 11–25 years as a result of either a long-distance water inflow in the basins or due to longer flow path in somewhat deeper wells (>20 m) with relative thicker unsaturated zones. The young MRT of groundwater from two monitoring wells in the Leibnitzer Feld was confirmed by 85Kr-measurements. Most CFC-11 and CFC-12 concentrations in the groundwater exceed the equilibration concentrations of modern concentrations in water and are therefore unsuitable for dating purposes. An enrichment factor up to 100 compared to atmospheric equilibrium concentrations and the obvious correlation of CFC-12 with SO4, Na, Cl and B in the ground waters of the Grazer Feld suggest that waste water in contact with CFC-containing material above and below ground is the source for the contamination. The dominance of very young groundwater (<5 years) indicates a recent origin of the contamination by nitrate and many other components observed in parts of the groundwater bodies. Rapid measures to reduce those sources are needed to mitigate against further deterioration of these waters.