SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Profiling consumer behaviour in cross-border tourism destinations

Tourism is a phenomenon that moves millions of people around the world, taking as a major driver of the global economy. Such relevance is reflected in the proliferation of studies in the overall area known as tourism, under various perspectives and backgrounds. In the light of such multitude of insights our study aims at gaining a deeper understanding of customer profiling and behavior in cross-border tourism destinations. Previous studies conducted in such contexts suggest that cross-border regions (CBRs) are an attractive and desirable idea, yet requiring further theoretical and empirical research. The new configuration of many CBRs calls for a debate on issues concerning its development, raising up important dimensions, such as, organization and planning of common tourism destinations. There is still a gap in the understanding of destination management in CBRs and the customer profile and motivations. Overall this research aims at attaining a deeper understanding of the profile and behavior of consumers in tourism settings, addressing the predisposition for the destination. The study addresses the following research question: “What factors influence customer behavior and attitudes in a CBRs tourism destination?” To address our question we will take an interdisciplinary perspective bringing together inputs from marketing, tourism and local economics. When addressing consumer behavior in tourism previous studies considered the following constructs: involvement, place attachment, satisfaction and destination loyalty. In order to establish the causal relationships in our theoretical model, we intend to develop a predominant quantitative design, yet we plan to conduct exploratory interviews. In the analysis and discussion of results, we intend to use Structural Equation Modeling. It will further allow understanding how the constructs in the research model relate to each other in the specified context. Results are also expected to have managerial implications. Consequently our results may assist decision makers in developing their local policies.

Consumer behavior and profile in cross border tourism destinations

Tourism is a phenomenon that moves millions of people around the world, taking as a major driver of the global economy. Such relevance is reflected in the proliferation of studies in the overall area known as tourism, under various perspectives and backgrounds. In the light of such multitude of insights our study aims at gaining a deeper understanding of customer profiling and behavior in cross-border tourism destinations. Previous studies conducted in such contexts suggest that cross-border regions (CBRs) are an attractive and desirable idea, yet requiring further theoretical and empirical research. The new configuration of many CBRs calls for a debate on issues concerning its development, raising up important dimensions, such as, organization and planning of common tourism destinations. There is still a gap in the understanding of destination management in CBRs and the customer profile and motivations. Overall this research aims at attaining a deeper understanding of the profile and behavior of consumers in tourism settings, addressing the predisposition for the destination. The study addresses the following research question: “What factors influence customer behavior and attitudes in a CBRs tourism destination?” To address our question we will take an interdisciplinary perspective bringing together inputs from marketing, tourism and local economics. When addressing consumer behavior in tourism previous studies considered the following constructs: involvement, place attachment, satisfaction and destination loyalty. In order to establish the causal relationships in our theoretical model, we intend to develop a predominant quantitative design, yet we plan to conduct exploratory interviews. In the analysis and discussion of results, we intend to use Structural Equation Modeling. It will further allow understanding how the constructs in the research model relate to each other in the specified context. Results are also expected to have managerial implications. Consequently our results may assist decision makers in developing their local policies.

Knowledge extraction from medium voltage load diagrams to support the definition of electrical tariffs

With the electricity market liberalization, distribution and retail companies are looking for better market strategies based on adequate information upon the consumption patterns of its electricity customers. In this environment all consumers are free to choose their electricity supplier. A fair insight on the customer´s behaviour will permit the definition of specific contract aspects based on the different consumption patterns. In this paper Data Mining (DM) techniques are applied to electricity consumption data from a utility client’s database. To form the different customer´s classes, and find a set of representative consumption patterns, we have used the Two-Step algorithm which is a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Each consumer class will be represented by its load profile resulting from the clustering operation. Next, to characterize each consumer class a classification model will be constructed with the C5.0 classification algorithm.

Análise estatística do preço da energia elétrica em mercado livre - Uma aplicação ao caso português

Neste relatório apresentam-se resultados de um estudo estatístico que procura contribuir para um melhor entendimento da problemática inerente à liberalização do setor elétrico em Portugal e dos desafios que esta liberalização, existente desde meados de 2007, trás aos seus intervenientes. Iniciam-se os trabalhos com um estudo que pretende avaliar a existência de relação entre o Preço de Mercado da eletricidade e um conjunto de variáveis potencialmente explicativas/condicionantes do Preço de Mercado. Neste estudo consideram-se duas abordagens. A primeira usa a função de correlação cruzada para avaliar a existência de relação do tipo linear entre pares de variáveis. A segunda considera o teste causalidade de Granger na avaliação de uma relação de causa e efeito entre esses pares. Este estudo avaliou a relação entre o Preço de Mercado da eletricidade e 19 variáveis ditas condicionantes distribuídas por três categorias distintas (consumo e produção de eletricidade; indicadores climáticos; e energias primárias). O intervalo de tempo em estudo cinge-se ao biénio 2012-2103. Durante este período avaliam-se as relações entre as variáveis em diversos sub-períodos de tempo em ciclos de consumo representativos do consumo em baixa (fim de semana) e de consumo mais elevado (fora de vazio) com os valores observados de cada uma das variáveis tratados com uma base horária e diária (média). Os resultados obtidos mostram a existência relação linear entre algumas das variáveis em estudo e o preço da eletricidade em regime de mercado liberalizado, mas raramente é possível identificar precedência temporal entre as variáveis. Considerando os resultados da análise de correlação e causalidade, apresenta-se ainda um modelo de previsão do Preço de Mercado para o curto e médio prazo em horas de período fora de vazio.

Per-unit royalty and fixed-fee licensing in a differentiated Stackelberg model

In the present paper we consider a differentiated Stackelberg model, when the leader firm engages in an R&D process that gives an endogenous cost-reducing innovation. The aim is to study the licensing of the cost-reduction by a per-unit royalty and a fixed-fee. We analyse the implications of these types of licensing contracts over the R&D effort, the profits of the firms, the consumer surplus and the social welfare. By using comparative static analysis, we conclude that the degree of the differentiation of the goods plays an important role in the results.

Determining the receptivity to the bluetooth marketing by the portuguese consumer

With increasing technological innovation, the concept of marketing and its applications become more functional and wide. Today, we witness a steady growth in the development of mobile marketing campaigns, i.e., marketing campaigns targeting mobile devices (mobile phones, Smartphones, PDAs, tablets). Among the several mobile technologies available (Bluetooth networks, Wi-Fi, WAP, SMS service, MMS), Bluetooth seems to have the biggest potential for the least invasive consumer mobile marketing strategy. This study seeks to answer the question "what factors may motivate the Portuguese consumer to accept Bluetooth marketing?.“ We propose a conceptual model capable of investigating the relationships between the several responsiveness factors to Bluetooth marketing. The development of a set of hypotheses supported by an online questionnaire to a valid sample of 755 participants, demonstrates that there is a relationship between factors such as expanded knowledge of the technology, and Bluetooth marketing receptivity. Additionally, we find that the information value of mobile advertising messages, such as entertainment value and personalization, relates well to responsiveness. The ability to accept/dismiss promotional messages sent to mobile phones and other safety features also correlated well with Bluetooth marketing receptivity.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Business model: What should be the strategy used by Smart Galp to implement and potentiate its value proposition in the Portuguese market?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Empirically testing the dimensions of consumer trust in e-commerce

In the fields of marketing and general management, many are the contributions of literature relating trust and e‐commerce. Trust is perceived as an issue that concerns the consumers’ intention to purchase. As so, in this research, a path model is empirically tested in order to develop solutions for Internet vendors on how to deal with consumers and increase their trust. The path model measures how the dimensions of trust, named as competence, integrity and benevolence positively influence the overall trust of the consumers and at the same time how the sources of trust – consumer characteristics, firm characteristics, website infrastructure and interactions influence those dimensions. The data used to test the model was collected in Portugal, through 365 valid cases. Findings revealed that consumers, which have high level of overall trust, are more likely to intent to purchase online.

Consumer satisfaction with water, wastewater and waste services in Portugal

While the concept of consumer satisfaction is a central topic in modern marketing theory and practice, citizens' satisfaction with public services, and especially water and waste services, is a eld that still remains empirically rather unexplored. The following study aims to contribute to this area by analysing the determinants of user satisfaction in the water, wastewater and waste sector in Portugal, using a unique survey of 1070 consumers undertaken by the Portuguese Water and Waste Regulator ERSAR. I perform an analysis of the relation between overall service satisfaction and attributespeci c service satisfaction with an ordered logit model. I then explore if subjective consumer satisfaction can be re ected by ERSAR's technical performance indicators. The results suggest that overall consumer satisfaction is driven by consumer's satisfaction with speci c service aspects but unrelated to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Furthermore, I show that there is no monotonic association between ERSAR's technical performance indicators and consumers' levels of satisfaction.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Assessing the role of social networks on migrant labor market outcomes: Evidence from a representative immigrant survey

What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

Exploring the consumer decision journey and online shoping experience through an emotional prespective

Traditional consumer decision-making models have long used quantitative research to address a link between emotional and rational behavior. However, little qualitative research has been conducted in the area of online shopping as an end-to-end experience. This study aims to provide a detailed phenomenological account of consumers’ online shopping experience and extend Mckinsey & Companys’s consumer decision journey model from an emotional perspective. Six semi-structured interviews and a focus group of nine people are analyzed using Interpretive Phenomenology Analysis and five superordinate themes emerged from the results: emotional experience, empathy and encouragement, in relation to brand preference, emotional encounters in relation to consumer satisfaction and emotional exchange and relationship with a company or brand. A model interrelating these themes is then introduced to visually represent the emotional essence of a large online purchase. This study promises to be applicable as a descriptive, and perhaps, better predictive report for understanding the complex consumer decision-making process as it relates to online consumer behavior. Future research topics are also identified.

A cumulative risk model of child physical maltreatment potential: findings from a community-based study

"Published online before print November 20, 2015"