Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Reliability analysis for hazard and operability studies

Fault tree analysis is used as a tool within hazard and operability (Hazop) studies. The present study proposes a new methodology for obtaining the exact TOP event probability of coherent fault trees. The technique uses a top-down approach similar to that of FATRAM. This new Fault Tree Disjoint Reduction Algorithm resolves all the intermediate events in the tree except OR gates with basic event inputs so that a near minimal cut sets expression is obtained. Then Bennetts' disjoint technique is applied and remaining OR gates are resolved. The technique has been found to be appropriate as an alternative to Monte Carlo simulation methods when rare events are countered and exact results are needed. The algorithm has been developed in FORTRAN 77 on the Perq workstation as an addition to the Aston Hazop package. The Perq graphical environment enabled a friendly user interface to be created. The total package takes as its input cause and symptom equations using Lihou's form of coding and produces both drawings of fault trees and the Boolean sum of products expression into which reliability data can be substituted directly.

A simulation study of a localised computer network

An investigation is carried out into the design of a small local computer network for eventual implementation on the University of Aston campus. Microprocessors are investigated as a possible choice for use as a node controller for reasons of cost and reliability. Since the network will be local, high speed lines of megabit order are proposed. After an introduction to several well known networks, various aspects of networks are discussed including packet switching, functions of a node and host-node protocol. Chapter three develops the network philosophy with an introduction to microprocessors. Various organisations of microprocessors into multicomputer and multiprocessor systems are discussed, together with methods of achieving reliabls computing. Chapter four presents the simulation model and its implentation as a computer program. The major modelling effort is to study the behaviour of messages queueing for access to the network and the message delay experienced on the network. Use is made of spectral analysis to determine the sampling frequency while Sxponentially Weighted Noving Averages are used for data smoothing.

Humans:the missing link in manufacturing simulation?

Computer based discrete event simulation (DES) is one of the most commonly used aids for the design of automotive manufacturing systems. However, DES tools represent machines in extensive detail, while only representing workers as simple resources. This presents a problem when modelling systems with a highly manual work content, such as an assembly line. This paper describes research at Cranfield University, in collaboration with the Ford Motor Company, founded on the assumption that human variation is the cause of a large percentage of the disparity between simulation predictions and real world performance. The research aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of simulation prediction by including models of human factors.

Grid and Simulation of Digital Communication Systems

The purpose of this paper is to turn researchers' attention to the use of grid computing for simulating digital communications and its large potential for decreasing significantly the duration of the experiments and for improving the statistical representativeness and reliability of the obtained results.

Simulation and experimental analysis of a brushless electrically excited synchronous machine with a hybrid rotor

Electrically excited synchronous machines with brushes and slip rings are popular but hardly used in inflammable and explosive environments. This paper proposes a new brushless electrically excited synchronous motor with a hybrid rotor. It eliminates the use of brushes and slip rings so as to improve the reliability and cost-effectiveness of the traction drive. The proposed motor is characterized with two sets of stator windings with two different pole numbers to provide excitation and drive torque independently. This paper introduces the structure and operating principle of the machine, followed by the analysis of the air-gap magnetic field using the finite-element method. The influence of the excitation winding's pole number on the coupling capability is studied and the operating characteristics of the machine are simulated. These are further examined by the experimental tests on a 16 kW prototype motor. The machine is proved to have good static and dynamic performance, which meets the stringent requirements for traction applications.

A framework for reliability assessment of ship hull damage under ship bow impact

Peer reviewed

A framework for reliability assessment of ship hull damage under ship bow impact

Peer reviewed

A framework for reliability assessment of ship hull damage under ship bow impact

Peer reviewed

The reliability mathematical model of load-sharing parallel systems based on fatigue cumulative damage

Conventional reliability models for parallel systems are not applicable for the analysis of parallel systems with load transfer and sharing. In this short communication, firstly, the dependent failures of parallel systems are analyzed, and the reliability model of load-sharing parallel system is presented based on Miner cumulative damage theory and the full probability formula. Secondly, the parallel system reliability is calculated by Monte Carlo simulation when the component life follows the Weibull distribution. The research result shows that the proposed reliability mathematical model could analyze and evaluate the reliability of parallel systems in the presence of load transfer.

A Framework for Assessing the Reliability of Wind Energy Conversion Systems

During the last decade, wind power generation has seen rapid development. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, achieving 20\% wind power penetration in the U.S. by 2030 will require: (i) enhancement of the transmission infrastructure, (ii) improvement of reliability and operability of wind systems and (iii) increased U.S. manufacturing capacity of wind generation equipment. This research will concentrate on improvement of reliability and operability of wind energy conversion systems (WECSs). The increased penetration of wind energy into the grid imposes new operating conditions on power systems. This change requires development of an adequate reliability framework. This thesis proposes a framework for assessing WECS reliability in the face of external disturbances, e.g., grid faults and internal component faults. The framework is illustrated using a detailed model of type C WECS - doubly fed induction generator with corresponding deterministic and random variables in a simplified grid model. Fault parameters and performance requirements essential to reliability measurements are included in the simulation. The proposed framework allows a quantitative analysis of WECS designs; analysis of WECS control schemes, e.g., fault ride-through mechanisms; discovery of key parameters that influence overall WECS reliability; and computation of WECS reliability with respect to different grid codes/performance requirements.

Simulation of URLLC slicing with resource reconfiguration in 5G networks

This thesis seeks to analyse the performance of dynamic slice provisioning in a 5G metro network with the low latency and reliability guaranties. This elaborate highlight the comparison in terms of performance of two versions of a simulator developed in Python based on different models: the Exhaustive research model and Shortest Path First Fit (SPFF) model. It further presents the differences between the dedicated path protection and the shared path protection. This analysis is made through several simulations at different network conditions by varying networks resources and observing the network performances while comparing the 2 models mentioned above. A reconfiguration procedure was implemented on backup resources in the shortest path first fit in order to improve its performance with respect to the exhaustive research which is more optimised. Subsequently, several triggering events was implemented, for the reconfiguration. And a comparison is made between these different triggering events in terms blocking probability, bandwidth at link, capacity at each node, primary and backup bandwidth per slice and backup capacity per slice.

Validity And Reliability Of A Pediatric Patient Classification Instrument.

to assess the construct validity and reliability of the Pediatric Patient Classification Instrument. correlation study developed at a teaching hospital. The classification involved 227 patients, using the pediatric patient classification instrument. The construct validity was assessed through the factor analysis approach and reliability through internal consistency. the Exploratory Factor Analysis identified three constructs with 67.5% of variance explanation and, in the reliability assessment, the following Cronbach's alpha coefficients were found: 0.92 for the instrument as a whole; 0.88 for the Patient domain; 0.81 for the Family domain; 0.44 for the Therapeutic procedures domain. the instrument evidenced its construct validity and reliability, and these analyses indicate the feasibility of the instrument. The validation of the Pediatric Patient Classification Instrument still represents a challenge, due to its relevance for a closer look at pediatric nursing care and management. Further research should be considered to explore its dimensionality and content validity.