A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.

A practical signal processing approach for condition monitoring of low speed machinery using Peak-Hold-Down-Sample algorithm

A simple and effective down-sample algorithm, Peak-Hold-Down-Sample (PHDS) algorithm is developed in this paper to enable a rapid and efficient data transfer in remote condition monitoring applications. The algorithm is particularly useful for high frequency Condition Monitoring (CM) techniques, and for low speed machine applications since the combination of the high sampling frequency and low rotating speed will generally lead to large unwieldy data size. The effectiveness of the algorithm was evaluated and tested on four sets of data in the study. One set of the data was extracted from the condition monitoring signal of a practical industry application. Another set of data was acquired from a low speed machine test rig in the laboratory. The other two sets of data were computer simulated bearing defect signals having either a single or multiple bearing defects. The results disclose that the PHDS algorithm can substantially reduce the size of data while preserving the critical bearing defect information for all the data sets used in this work even when a large down-sample ratio was used (i.e., 500 times down-sampled). In contrast, the down-sample process using existing normal down-sample technique in signal processing eliminates the useful and critical information such as bearing defect frequencies in a signal when the same down-sample ratio was employed. Noise and artificial frequency components were also induced by the normal down-sample technique, thus limits its usefulness for machine condition monitoring applications.

Sampling designs on stream networks using the pseudo-Bayesian approach

Monitoring stream networks through time provides important ecological information. The sampling design problem is to choose locations where measurements are taken so as to maximise information gathered about physicochemical and biological variables on the stream network. This paper uses a pseudo-Bayesian approach, averaging a utility function over a prior distribution, in finding a design which maximizes the average utility. We use models for correlations of observations on the stream network that are based on stream network distances and described by moving average error models. Utility functions used reflect the needs of the experimenter, such as prediction of location values or estimation of parameters. We propose an algorithmic approach to design with the mean utility of a design estimated using Monte Carlo techniques and an exchange algorithm to search for optimal sampling designs. In particular we focus on the problem of finding an optimal design from a set of fixed designs and finding an optimal subset of a given set of sampling locations. As there are many different variables to measure, such as chemical, physical and biological measurements at each location, designs are derived from models based on different types of response variables: continuous, counts and proportions. We apply the methodology to a synthetic example and the Lake Eacham stream network on the Atherton Tablelands in Queensland, Australia. We show that the optimal designs depend very much on the choice of utility function, varying from space filling to clustered designs and mixtures of these, but given the utility function, designs are relatively robust to the type of response variable.

A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Sampling Methods for Exploring Between Subject Variability in Cardiac Electrophysiology Experiments

Between-subject and within-subject variability is ubiquitous in biology and physiology and understanding and dealing with this is one of the biggest challenges in medicine. At the same time it is difficult to investigate this variability by experiments alone. A recent modelling and simulation approach, known as population of models (POM), allows this exploration to take place by building a mathematical model consisting of multiple parameter sets calibrated against experimental data. However, finding such sets within a high-dimensional parameter space of complex electrophysiological models is computationally challenging. By placing the POM approach within a statistical framework, we develop a novel and efficient algorithm based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). We compare the SMC approach with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a method commonly adopted in the literature for obtaining the POM, in terms of efficiency and output variability in the presence of a drug block through an in-depth investigation via the Beeler-Reuter cardiac electrophysiological model. We show improved efficiency via SMC and that it produces similar responses to LHS when making out-of-sample predictions in the presence of a simulated drug block.

Automated inspection of aircraft parts using a modified ICP algorithm

The application of computer-aided inspection integrated with the coordinate measuring machine and laser scanners to inspect manufactured aircraft parts using robust registration of two-point datasets is a subject of active research in computational metrology. This paper presents a novel approach to automated inspection by matching shapes based on the modified iterative closest point (ICP) method to define a criterion for the acceptance or rejection of a part. This procedure improves upon existing methods by doing away with the following, viz., the need for constructing either a tessellated or smooth representation of the inspected part and requirements for an a priori knowledge of approximate registration and correspondence between the points representing the computer-aided design datasets and the part to be inspected. In addition, this procedure establishes a better measure for error between the two matched datasets. The use of localized region-based triangulation is proposed for tracking the error. The approach described improves the convergence of the ICP technique with a dramatic decrease in computational effort. Experimental results obtained by implementing this proposed approach using both synthetic and practical data show that the present method is efficient and robust. This method thereby validates the algorithm, and the examples demonstrate its potential to be used in engineering applications.

A novel fractional sampling offset estimation in an OFDM system

The Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is a form of Multi-Carrier Modulation where the data stream is transmitted over a number of carriers which are orthogonal to each other i.e. the carrier spacing is selected such that each carrier is located at the zeroes of all other carriers in the spectral domain. This paper proposes a new novel sampling offset estimation algorithm for an OFDM system in order to receive the OFDM data symbols error-free over the noisy channel at the receiver and to achieve fine timing synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. The performance of this algorithm has been studied in AWGN, ADSL and SUI channels successfully.

A novel fractional sampling offset estimation in an OFDM system

The Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) is a form of Multi-Carrier Modulation where the data stream is transmitted over a number of carriers which are orthogonal to each other i.e. the carrier spacing is selected such that each carrier is located at the zeroes of all other carriers in the spectral domain. This paper proposes a new novel sampling offset estimation algorithm for an OFDM system in order to receive the OFDM data symbols error-free over the noisy channel at the receiver and to achieve fine timing synchronization between the transmitter and the receiver. The performance of this algorithm has been studied in AWGN, ADSL and SUI channels successfully.

An Efficient Random Walk Strategy for Sampling Based Robot Motion Planners

Sampling based planners have been successful in path planning of robots with many degrees of freedom, but still remains ineffective when the configuration space has a narrow passage. We present a new technique based on a random walk strategy to generate samples in narrow regions quickly, thus improving efficiency of Probabilistic Roadmap Planners. The algorithm substantially reduces instances of collision checking and thereby decreases computational time. The method is powerful even for cases where the structure of the narrow passage is not known, thus giving significant improvement over other known methods.

On Selection of Search Space Dimension in Compressive Sampling Matching Pursuit

Compressive Sampling Matching Pursuit (CoSaMP) is one of the popular greedy methods in the emerging field of Compressed Sensing (CS). In addition to the appealing empirical performance, CoSaMP has also splendid theoretical guarantees for convergence. In this paper, we propose a modification in CoSaMP to adaptively choose the dimension of search space in each iteration, using a threshold based approach. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we show that this modification improves the reconstruction capability of the CoSaMP algorithm in clean as well as noisy measurement cases. From empirical observations, we also propose an optimum value for the threshold to use in applications.

A Novel Monte-Carlo-Sampling-Based Receiver for Large-Scale Uplink Multiuser MIMO Systems

In this paper, we propose low-complexity algorithms based on Monte Carlo sampling for signal detection and channel estimation on the uplink in large-scale multiuser multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) systems with tens to hundreds of antennas at the base station (BS) and a similar number of uplink users. A BS receiver that employs a novel mixed sampling technique (which makes a probabilistic choice between Gibbs sampling and random uniform sampling in each coordinate update) for detection and a Gibbs-sampling-based method for channel estimation is proposed. The algorithm proposed for detection alleviates the stalling problem encountered at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) in conventional Gibbs-sampling-based detection and achieves near-optimal performance in large systems with M-ary quadrature amplitude modulation (M-QAM). A novel ingredient in the detection algorithm that is responsible for achieving near-optimal performance at low complexity is the joint use of a mixed Gibbs sampling (MGS) strategy coupled with a multiple restart (MR) strategy with an efficient restart criterion. Near-optimal detection performance is demonstrated for a large number of BS antennas and users (e. g., 64 and 128 BS antennas and users). The proposed Gibbs-sampling-based channel estimation algorithm refines an initial estimate of the channel obtained during the pilot phase through iterations with the proposed MGS-based detection during the data phase. In time-division duplex systems where channel reciprocity holds, these channel estimates can be used for multiuser MIMO precoding on the downlink. The proposed receiver is shown to achieve good performance and scale well for large dimensions.

Group testing based spectrum hole search using a simple sub-nyquist sampling scheme

In this paper, we consider the problem of finding a spectrum hole of a specified bandwidth in a given wide band of interest. We propose a new, simple and easily implementable sub-Nyquist sampling scheme for signal acquisition and a spectrum hole search algorithm that exploits sparsity in the primary spectral occupancy in the frequency domain by testing a group of adjacent subbands in a single test. The sampling scheme deliberately introduces aliasing during signal acquisition, resulting in a signal that is the sum of signals from adjacent sub-bands. Energy-based hypothesis tests are used to provide an occupancy decision over the group of subbands, and this forms the basis of the proposed algorithm to find contiguous spectrum holes. We extend this framework to a multi-stage sensing algorithm that can be employed in a variety of spectrum sensing scenarios, including non-contiguous spectrum hole search. Further, we provide the analytical means to optimize the hypothesis tests with respect to the detection thresholds, number of samples and group size to minimize the detection delay under a given error rate constraint. Depending on the sparsity and SNR, the proposed algorithms can lead to significantly lower detection delays compared to a conventional bin-by-bin energy detection scheme; the latter is in fact a special case of the group test when the group size is set to 1. We validate our analytical results via Monte Carlo simulations.

A novel MCMC algorithm for near-optimal detection in large-scale uplink mulituser MIMO systems

In this paper, we propose a low-complexity algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique for signal detection on the uplink in large scale multiuser multiple input multiple output (MIMO) systems with tens to hundreds of antennas at the base station (BS) and similar number of uplink users. The algorithm employs a randomized sampling method (which makes a probabilistic choice between Gibbs sampling and random sampling in each iteration) for detection. The proposed algorithm alleviates the stalling problem encountered at high SNRs in conventional MCMC algorithm and achieves near-optimal performance in large systems with M-QAM. A novel ingredient in the algorithm that is responsible for achieving near-optimal performance at low complexities is the joint use of a randomized MCMC (R-MCMC) strategy coupled with a multiple restart strategy with an efficient restart criterion. Near-optimal detection performance is demonstrated for large number of BS antennas and users (e.g., 64, 128, 256 BS antennas/users).

Hierarchical sampling for metastable conformers determines biomolecular recognition: the case of malectin and diglucosylated N-glycan interactions

Structural information over the entire course of binding interactions based on the analyses of energy landscapes is described, which provides a framework to understand the events involved during biomolecular recognition. Conformational dynamics of malectin's exquisite selectivity for diglucosylated N-glycan (Dig-N-glycan), a highly flexible oligosaccharide comprising of numerous dihedral torsion angles, are described as an example. For this purpose, a novel approach based on hierarchical sampling for acquiring metastable molecular conformations constituting low-energy minima for understanding the structural features involved in a biologic recognition is proposed. For this purpose, four variants of principal component analysis were employed recursively in both Cartesian space and dihedral angles space that are characterized by free energy landscapes to select the most stable conformational substates. Subsequently, k-means clustering algorithm was implemented for geometric separation of the major native state to acquire a final ensemble of metastable conformers. A comparison of malectin complexes was then performed to characterize their conformational properties. Analyses of stereochemical metrics and other concerted binding events revealed surface complementarity, cooperative and bidentate hydrogen bonds, water-mediated hydrogen bonds, carbohydrate-aromatic interactions including CH-pi and stacking interactions involved in this recognition. Additionally, a striking structural transition from loop to beta-strands in malectin CRD upon specific binding to Dig-N-glycan is observed. The interplay of the above-mentioned binding events in malectin and Dig-N-glycan supports an extended conformational selection model as the underlying binding mechanism.