Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

The effect of windstress change on future sea level change in the Southern Ocean

AOGCMs of the two latest phases (CMIP3 and CMIP5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, like earlier AOGCMs, predict large regional variations in future sea level change. The model-mean pattern of change in CMIP3 and CMIP5 is very similar, and its most prominent feature is a zonal dipole in the Southern Ocean: sea level rise is larger than the global mean north of 50°S and smaller than the global mean south of 50°S in most models. The individual models show widely varying patterns, although the inter-model spread in local sea level change is smaller in CMIP5 than in CMIP3. Here we investigate whether changes in windstress can explain the different patterns of projected sea level change, especially the Southern Ocean feature, using two AOGCMs forced by the changes in windstress from the CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs. We show that the strengthening and poleward shift of westerly windstress accounts for the most of the large spread among models in magnitude of this feature. In the Indian, North Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the windstress change is influential, but does not completely account for the projected sea level change.

The depression of tropical snow lines at the Last Glacial Maximum: what can we learn from climate and model experiments?

Analyses of simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) made with 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) participating in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, and a high-resolution (T106) version of one of the models (CCSR1), show that changes in the elevation of tropical snowlines (as estimated by the depression of the maximum altitude of the 0 °C isotherm) are primarily controlled by changes in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The correlation between the two variables, averaged for the tropics as a whole, is 95%, and remains >80% even at a regional scale. The reduction of tropical SSTs at the LGM results in a drier atmosphere and hence steeper lapse rates. Changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the Asian monsoon system and related atmospheric humidity changes, amplify the reduction in snowline elevation in the northern tropics. Colder conditions over the tropical oceans combined with a weakened Asian monsoon could produce snowline lowering of up to 1000 m in certain regions, comparable to the changes shown by observations. Nevertheless, such large changes are not typical of all regions of the tropics. Analysis of the higher resolution CCSR1 simulation shows that differences between the free atmospheric and along-slope lapse rate can be large, and may provide an additional factor to explain regional variations in observed snowline changes.

How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Mapping the cytoskeletal prestress

Park CY, Tambe D, Alencar AM, Trepat X, Zhou EH, Millet E, Butler JP, Fredberg JJ. Mapping the cytoskeletal prestress. Am J Physiol Cell Physiol 298: C1245-C1252, 2010. First published February 17, 2010; doi: 10.1152/ajpcell.00417.2009.-Cell mechanical properties on a whole cell basis have been widely studied, whereas local intracellular variations have been less well characterized and are poorly understood. To fill this gap, here we provide detailed intracellular maps of regional cytoskeleton (CSK) stiffness, loss tangent, and rate of structural rearrangements, as well as their relationships to the underlying regional F-actin density and the local cytoskeletal prestress. In the human airway smooth muscle cell, we used micropatterning to minimize geometric variation. We measured the local cell stiffness and loss tangent with optical magnetic twisting cytometry and the local rate of CSK remodeling with spontaneous displacements of a CSK-bound bead. We also measured traction distributions with traction microscopy and cell geometry with atomic force microscopy. On the basis of these experimental observations, we used finite element methods to map for the first time the regional distribution of intracellular prestress. Compared with the cell center or edges, cell corners were systematically stiffer and more fluidlike and supported higher traction forces, and at the same time had slower remodeling dynamics. Local remodeling dynamics had a close inverse relationship with local cell stiffness. The principal finding, however, is that systematic regional variations of CSK stiffness correlated only poorly with regional F-actin density but strongly and linearly with the regional prestress. Taken together, these findings in the intact cell comprise the most comprehensive characterization to date of regional variations of cytoskeletal mechanical properties and their determinants.

Estudo epidemiológico da Toxoplasmose em gestantes atendidas na Maternidade Escola Januário Cicco, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte

Congenital Toxoplasmosis results in severe systemic disease. If mother is infected for the first time during gestation, she can infect the fetus causing substantial damage. However, relatively little is known about the seroprevalence and epidemiological and economic factors of Toxoplasmosis infection in pregnancy in the most state in northeastern Brazil and knowledge about this can be essential in determining effective and acceptable prevention strategies. Our aim was to determine the prevalence of Toxoplasmosis in pregnant woman consulted by reference Maternity Escola Januário Cicco in Natal, a city in Northeastern Brazil, which belongs to the public health system, correlating to the risk factors involved in the infection and to accomplish active Search in the Hospital of Pediatrics Profº Heriberto Bezerra of the damages caused by the Toxoplasmic infection in children up to 12 years of age. The study was conducted from March to December 2007 and sera obtained from 190 pregnant women were tested for IgM and IgG antibodies avidity to Toxoplasma by Microparticle enzyme immunoassay (Abbott AxSYM system - Abbott Laboratories, Chicago, IL, USA). Data were examined with univariate analysis. Chi-squared (x2) and Odds ratio was calculated (IC 95% p 0,05). Of these women, 126 (66,3%) had only IgG antibodies high-avidity against T. gondii; 01 (0,52%) had a IgM and IgG high-avidity antibodies against T. gondii and 63 (33,1%) have neither IgM nor IgG against T. gondii. Our studies shown that the direct contact with cats or dogs was highly associated with the Toxoplasma gondii infection (OR, 2.72, p<0.001, 95% CI 1.46 5.02). The years school (p<0,001), socioeconomic status and knowledge about the disease (both p value 0.05) also were associated with Toxoplasmosis. The pattern of risk factors for infection presents regional variations, however our data corroborate others studies in Brazil. In children up to 12 years, one case of Congenital Toxoplasmosis was just registered in seven years (2000 - 2006). There were several suggestive cases, with signs and characteristic symptoms, but that the infection was not confirmed due to lack in the researches through laboratorial and images exams that addressed that it zoonosis

Influence of atypical pluviosity on phytoplankton assemblages in a stretch of a large sub-tropical river (Brazil)

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of alterations in pluviosity and ecological variables on microphytoplankton (> 20 mu m) structure (composition, richness, diversity, and abundance) and its biomass (chlorophyll-a), comparing different regions in a stretch of the low Igua double dagger u River and in some tributaries. Phytoplankton was sampled in 10 stations (5 in Igua double dagger u River and 5 in tributaries) during a dry period (April/2004) and an atypical rainy period (June/2004). The conductivity showed significant difference among the sampling points. Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, silicate, and nitrate showed significant differences between the dry and wet periods. Phytoplankton was composed of 149 taxa, and the most representative class was Chlorophyceae (71 taxa), followed by Bacillariophyceae (35 taxa), and Cyanophyceae (25 taxa). During the rainy period, stations of Igua double dagger u River showed higher taxa number and total density compared to the tributaries, but the values were similar in the dry period. Tributaries presented higher diversity and equitability in both periods. Except by two stations in Igua double dagger u River, the higher taxa number, densities and biomass occurred in the dry period, associated to low levels of suspended matter. The canonical correspondence analysis indicated the dominance of Bacillariophyceae and Chrysophyceae in the rainy period related to nitrate and suspended matter. Two other groups were observed in the dry period: one formed by Cyanophyceae, Dinophyceae, and Rhodophyceae, related to temperature and nitrite and other by Euglenophyceae and Chlorophyceae related to total phosphorus and silicate. The groups suggest adequate conditions of the physical, chemical and climatic factors to the establishment of the algae classes. Phytoplanktonic assemblages responded quickly to the environmental regional variations under strong influence of pluviosity, while in the dry period, homogeneity among stations and environmental variables was observed. The importance of climatic events is relevant in ecological studies in a temporal scale.

Prevalence of uropathogens and antimicrobial susceptibility profile in outpatient from Jataí-GO

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Airborne measurements of the spectral surface albedo over Morocco and its influence on the radiative forcing of Saharan dust

This PhD thesis is embedded into the DFG research project SAMUM, the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment which was initiated with the goal to investigate the optical and microphysical properties of Saharan dust aerosol, its transport, and its radiative effect. This work described the deployment of the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement SysTem (SMART-Albedometer) in SAMUM after it has been extended in its spectral range. The SAMUM field campaign was conducted in May and June 2006 in south-eastern Morocco. At two ground stations and aboard two aircraft various measurements in an almost pure plume of Saharan dust were conducted. Airborne measurements of the spectral upwelling and downwelling irradiance are used to derive the spectral surface albedo in its typical range in the experiment region. Typical spectral types are presented and compared to the surface albedo derived from MISR satellite data. Furthermore, the radiative forcing of the observed Saharan dust is estimated in dependence on the surface albedo and its regional variations. A strong dependence of the radiative forcing not only on the surface albedo, but also on the optical properties of the dust aerosol is observed. It is unique to SAMUM that all these influential parameters have been measured in near-source Saharan dust, which made the calculations shown in this work possible.

Antibiotic use in adult outpatients in Switzerland in relation to regions, seasonality and point of care tests

The use of antibiotics is highest in primary care and directly associated with antibiotic resistance in the community. We assessed regional variations in antibiotic use in primary care in Switzerland and explored prescription patterns in relation to the use of point of care tests. Defined daily doses of antibiotics per 1000 inhabitants (DDD(1000pd) ) were calculated for the year 2007 from reimbursement data of the largest Swiss health insurer, based on the anatomic therapeutic chemical classification and the DDD methodology recommended by WHO. We present ecological associations by use of descriptive and regression analysis. We analysed data from 1 067 934 adults, representing 17.1% of the Swiss population. The rate of outpatient antibiotic prescriptions in the entire population was 8.5 DDD(1000pd) , and varied between 7.28 and 11.33 DDD(1000pd) for northwest Switzerland and the Lake Geneva region. DDD(1000pd) for the three most prescribed antibiotics were 2.90 for amoxicillin and amoxicillin-clavulanate, 1.77 for fluoroquinolones, and 1.34 for macrolides. Regions with higher DDD(1000pd) showed higher seasonal variability in antibiotic use and lower use of all point of care tests. In regression analysis for each class of antibiotics, the use of any point of care test was consistently associated with fewer antibiotic prescriptions. Prescription rates of primary care physicians showed variations between Swiss regions and were lower in northwest Switzerland and in physicians using point of care tests. Ecological studies are prone to bias and whether point of care tests reduce antibiotic use has to be investigated in pragmatic primary care trials.

Perception of non-invasive ventilation in adult Swiss intensive care units

The real utilisation scenario of non-invasive ventilation (NIV) in Swiss ICUs has never been reported. Using a survey methodology, we developed a questionnaire sent to the directors of the 79 adult ICUs to identify the perceived pattern of NIV utilisation. We obtained a response rate of 62%. The overall utilisation rate for NIV was 26% of all mechanical ventilations, but we found significant differences in the utilisation rates among different linguistic areas, ranging from 20% in the German part to 48% in the French part (p <0.01). NIV was mainly indicated for the acute exacerbations of COPD (AeCOPD), acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema (ACPE) and acute respiratory failure (ARF) in selected do-not-intubate patients. In ACPE, CPAP was much less used than bi-level ventilation and was still applied in AeCOPD. The first line interface was a facial mask (81%) and the preferred type of ventilator was an ICU machine with an NIV module (69%). The perceived use of NIV is generally high in Switzerland, but regional variations are remarkable. The indications of NIV use are in accordance with international guidelines. A high percentage of units consider selected do-not-intubate conditions as an important additional indication.

A High-Resolution Record of Atmospheric Dust Composition and Variability Since Ad 1650 from a Mount Everest Ice Core

A Mount Everest ice core analyzed at high resolution for major and trace elements (Sr, Cs, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu, Bi, U, Tl, Al, S, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co) and spanning the period A. D. 1650- 2002 is used to investigate the sources of and variations in atmospheric dust through time. The chemical composition of dust varies seasonally, and peak dust concentrations occur during the winter-spring months. Significant correlations between the Everest dust record and dust observations at stations suggest that the Everest record is representative of regional variations in atmospheric dust loading. Back-trajectory analysis in addition to a significant correlation of Everest dust concentrations and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index indicates that the dominant winter sources of dust are the Arabian Peninsula, Thar Desert, and northern Sahara. Factors that contribute to dust generation at the surface include soil moisture and temperature, and the long-range transport of dust aerosols appears to be sensitive to the strength of 500-mb zonal winds. There are periods of high dust concentration throughout the 350-yr Mount Everest dust record; however, there is an increase in these periods since the early 1800s. The record was examined for recent increases in dust emissions associated with anthropogenic activities, but no recent dust variations can be conclusively attributed to anthropogenic inputs of dust.

Specimen specific parameter identification of ovine lumbar intervertebral discs: On the influence of fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre shear interactions.

Numerical models of the intervertebral disc, which address mechanical questions commonly make use of the difference in water content between annulus and nucleus, and thus fluid and solid parts are separated. Despite this simplification, models remain complex due to the anisotropy and nonlinearity of the annulus and regional variations of the collagen fibre density. Additionally, it has been shown that cross-links make a large contribution to the stiffness of the annulus. Because of this complex composite structure, it is difficult to reproduce several sets of experimental data with one single set of material parameters. This study addresses the question to which extent the ultrastructure of the intervertebral disc should be modelled so that its moment-angle behaviour can be adequately described. Therefore, a hyperelastic constitutive law, based on continuum mechanical principles was derived, which does not only consider the anisotropy from the collagen fibres, but also interactions among the fibres and between the fibres and the ground substance. Eight ovine lumbar intervertebral discs were tested on a custom made spinal loading simulator in flexion/extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Specimen-specific geometrical models were generated using CT images and T2 maps to distinguish between annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus. For the identification of the material parameters the annulus fibrosus was described with two scenarios: with and without fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre interactions. Both scenarios showed a similar behaviour on a load displacement level. Comparing model predictions to the experimental data, the mean RMS of all specimens and all load cases was 0.54±0.15° without the interaction and 0.54±0.19° when the fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre interactions were included. However, due to the increased stiffness when cross-links effects were included, this scenario showed more physiological stress-strain relations in uniaxial and biaxial stress states. Thus, the present study suggests that fibre-matrix and fibre-fibre interactions should be considered in the constitutive law when the model addresses questions concerning the stress field of the annulus fibrosus.

Relative indexes of cutaneous blood perfusion measured by real-time laser Doppler imaging (LDI) in healthy volunteers.

We used real-time LDI to study regional variations in microcirculatory perfusion in healthy candidates to establish a new methodology for global perfusion body mapping that is based on intra-individual perfusion index ratios. Our study included 74 (37 female) healthy volunteers aged between 22 and 30 years (mean 24.49). Imaging was performed using a recent microcirculation-imaging camera (EasyLDI) for different body regions of each volunteer. The perfusion values were reported in Arbitrary Perfusion Units (APU). The relative perfusion indexes for each candidate's body region were then obtained by normalization with the perfusion value of the forehead. Basic parameters such as weight, height, and blood pressure were also measured and analyzed. The highest mean perfusion value was reported in the forehead area (259.21APU). Mean perfusion in the measured parts of the body correlated positively with mean forehead value, while there was no significant correlation between forehead blood perfusion values and room temperature, BMI, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure (p=0.420, 0.623, 0.488, 0.099, respectively). Analysis of the data showed that perfusion indexes were not significantly different between male and female volunteers except for the ventral upper arm area (p=.001). LDI is a non-invasive, fast technique that opens several avenues for clinical applications. The mean perfusion indexes are useful in clinical practice for monitoring patients before and after surgical interventions. Perfusion values can be predicted for different body parts for patients only by taking the forehead perfusion value and using the perfusion index ratios to obtain expected normative perfusion values.

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium.