843 resultados para Receiver operating characterictics


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Objective Explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) often requires technicians to wear multiple protective garments in challenging environmental conditions. The accumulative effect of increased metabolic cost coupled with decreased heat dissipation associated with these garments predisposes technicians to high levels of physiological strain. It has been proposed that a perceptual strain index (PeSI) using subjective ratings of thermal sensation and perceived exertion as surrogate measures of core body temperature and heart rate, may provide an accurate estimation of physiological strain. Therefore, this study aimed to determine if the PeSI could estimate the physiological strain index (PSI) across a range of metabolic workloads and environments while wearing heavy EOD and chemical protective clothing. Methods Eleven healthy males wore an EOD and chemical protective ensemble while walking on a treadmill at 2.5, 4 and 5.5 km·h− 1 at 1% grade in environmental conditions equivalent to wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 21, 30 and 37 °C. WBGT conditions were randomly presented and a maximum of three randomised treadmill walking trials were completed in a single testing day. Trials were ceased at a maximum of 60-min or until the attainment of termination criteria. A Pearson's correlation coefficient, mixed linear model, absolute agreement and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to determine the relationship between the PeSI and PSI. Results A significant moderate relationship between the PeSI and the PSI was observed [r = 0.77; p < 0.001; mean difference = 0.8 ± 1.1 a.u. (modified 95% limits of agreement − 1.3 to 3.0)]. The ROC curves indicated that the PeSI had a good predictive power when used with two, single-threshold cut-offs to differentiate between low and high levels of physiological strain (area under curve: PSI three cut-off = 0.936 and seven cut-off = 0.841). Conclusions These findings support the use of the PeSI for monitoring physiological strain while wearing EOD and chemical protective clothing. However, future research is needed to confirm the validity of the PeSI for active EOD technicians operating in the field.

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Purpose To compare small nerve fiber damage in the central cornea and whorl area in participants with diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) and to examine the accuracy of evaluating these 2 anatomical sites for the diagnosis of DPN. Methods A cohort of 187 participants (107 with type 1 diabetes and 80 controls) was enrolled. The neuropathy disability score (NDS) was used for the identification of DPN. The corneal nerve fiber length at the central cornea (CNFLcenter) and whorl (CNFLwhorl) was quantified using corneal confocal microscopy and a fully automated morphometric technique and compared according to the DPN status. Receiver operating characteristic analyses were used to compare the accuracy of the 2 corneal locations for the diagnosis of DPN. Results CNFLcenter and CNFLwhorl were able to differentiate all 3 groups (diabetic participants with and without DPN and controls) (P < 0.001). There was a weak but significant linear relationship for CNFLcenter and CNFLwhorl versus NDS (P < 0.001); however, the corneal location x NDS interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.17). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was similar for CNFLcenter and CNFLwhorl (0.76 and 0.77, respectively, P = 0.98). The sensitivity and specificity of the cutoff points were 0.9 and 0.5 for CNFLcenter and 0.8 and 0.6 for CNFLwhorl. Conclusions Small nerve fiber pathology is comparable at the central and whorl anatomical sites of the cornea. Quantification of CNFL from the corneal center is as accurate as CNFL quantification of the whorl area for the diagnosis of DPN.

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Background Depression is a common psychiatric disorder in older people. The study aimed to examine the screening accuracy of the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) and the Collateral Source version of the Geriatric Depression Scale (CS-GDS) in the nursing home setting. Methods Eighty-eight residents from 14 nursing homes were assessed for depression using the GDS and the CS-GDS, and validated against clinician diagnosed depression using the Semi-structured Clinical Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders (SCID) for residents without dementia and the Provisional Diagnostic Criteria for Depression in Alzheimer Disease (PDCdAD) for those with dementia. The screening performances of five versions of the GDS (30-, 15-, 10-, 8-, and 4-item) and two versions of the CS-GDS (30- and 15-item) were analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results Among residents without dementia, both the self-rated (AUC = 0.75–0.79) and proxy-rated (AUC = 0.67) GDS variations performed significantly better than chance in screening for depression. However, neither instrument adequately identified depression among residents with dementia (AUC between 0.57 and 0.70). Among the GDS variations, the 4- and 8-item scales had the highest AUC and the optimal cut-offs were >0 and >3, respectively. Conclusions The validity of the GDS in detecting depression requires a certain level of cognitive functioning. While the CS-GDS is designed to remedy this issue by using an informant, it did not have adequate validity in detecting depression among residents with dementia. Further research is needed on informant selection and other factors that can potentially influence the validity of proxy-based measures in the nursing home setting.

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This paper details the design and performance assessment of a unique collision avoidance decision and control strategy for autonomous vision-based See and Avoid systems. The general approach revolves around re-positioning a collision object in the image using image-based visual servoing, without estimating range or time to collision. The decision strategy thus involves determining where to move the collision object, to induce a safe avoidance manuever, and when to cease the avoidance behaviour. These tasks are accomplished by exploiting human navigation models, spiral motion properties, expected image feature uncertainty and the rules of the air. The result is a simple threshold based system that can be tuned and statistically evaluated by extending performance assessment techniques derived for alerting systems. Our results demonstrate how autonomous vision-only See and Avoid systems may be designed under realistic problem constraints, and then evaluated in a manner consistent to aviation expectations.

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Objective: To identify differentially expressed genes in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) compared with healthy individuals. Methods: RNA was extracted from PBMCs collected from 18 patients with active disease and 18 gender-matched and age-matched controls. Expression profiles of these cells were determined using microarray. Candidate genes with differential expressions were confirmed in the same samples using quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (qRT-PCR). These genes were then validated in a different sample cohort of 35 patients with AS and 18 controls by qRT-PCR. Results: Microarray analysis identified 452 genes detected with 485 probes which were differentially expressed between patients with AS and controls. Underexpression of NR4A2, tumour necrosis factor AIP3 (TNFAIP3) and CD69 was confirmed. These genes were further validated in a different sample group in which the patients with AS had a wider range of disease activity. Predictive algorithms were also developed from the expression data using receiver-operating characteristic curves, which demonstrated that the three candidate genes have ∼80% power to predict AS according to their expression levels. Conclusions: The findings show differences in global gene expression patterns between patients with AS and controls, suggesting an immunosuppressive phenotype in the patients. Furthermore, downregulated expression of three immune-related genes was confirmed. These candidate genes were also shown to be strong predictive markers for AS.

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Background Pollens of the Panicoideae subfamily of grasses including Bahia (Paspalum notatum) are important allergen sources in subtropical regions of the world. An assay for specific IgE to the major molecular allergenic component, Pas n 1, of Bahia grass pollen (BaGP) would have immunodiagnostic utility for patients with pollen allergy in these regions. Methods Biotinylated Pas n 1 purified from BaGP was coated onto streptavidin ImmunoCAPs. Subjects were assessed by clinical history of allergic rhinitis and skin prick test (SPT) to aeroallergens. Serum total, BaGP-specific and Pas n 1-specific IgE were measured. Results: Pas n 1 IgE concentrations were highly correlated with BaGP SPT (r = 0.795, p < 0.0001) and BaGP IgE (r = 0.915, p < 0.0001). At 0.23 kU/l Pas n 1 IgE, the diagnostic sensitivity (92.4%) and specificity (93.1%) for the detection of BaGP allergy was high (area under receiver operator curve 0.960, p < 0.0001). The median concentrations of Pas n 1 IgE in non-Atopic subjects (0.01 kU/l, n = 67) and those with other allergies (0.02 kU/l, n = 59) showed no inter-group difference, whilst grass pollen-Allergic patients with allergic rhinitis showed elevated Pas n 1 IgE (6.71 kU/l, n = 182, p < 0.0001). The inter-Assay coefficient of variation for the BaGP-Allergic serum pool was 6.92%. Conclusions Pas n 1 IgE appears to account for most of the BaGP-specific IgE. This molecular component immunoassay for Pas n 1 IgE has potential utility to improve the sensitivity and accuracy of diagnosis of BaGP allergy for patients in subtropical regions.

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Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the most common cause of viral encephalitis and an important public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China where 50% of global cases are notified. To explore the association between environmental factors and human JE cases and identify the high risk areas for JE transmission in China, we used annual notified data on JE cases at the center of administrative township and environmental variables with a pixel resolution of 1 km×1 km from 2005 to 2011 to construct models using ecological niche modeling (ENM) approaches based on maximum entropy. These models were then validated by overlaying reported human JE case localities from 2006 to 2012 onto each prediction map. ENMs had good discriminatory ability with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating curve (ROC) of 0.82-0.91, and low extrinsic omission rate of 5.44-7.42%. Resulting maps showed JE being presented extensively throughout southwestern and central China, with local spatial variations in probability influenced by minimum temperatures, human population density, mean temperatures, and elevation, with contribution of 17.94%-38.37%, 15.47%-21.82%, 3.86%-21.22%, and 12.05%-16.02%, respectively. Approximately 60% of JE cases occurred in predicted high risk areas, which covered less than 6% of areas in mainland China. Our findings will help inform optimal geographical allocation of the limited resources available for JE prevention and control in China, find hidden high-risk areas, and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

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Background Adherence to hypertension management in patients with hypertension is known to influence their blood pressure control. It is important to measure patients’ adherence behaviours to assist with designing appropriate interventions to improve blood pressure control. Aims The purposes of this study were to use confirmatory factor analysis to revalidate the Therapeutic Adherence Scale for Hypertensive Patients (TASHP), and to calculate the cut-off score for classifying adherence behaviours into two groups: satisfactory and low adherence behaviours. Methods Systematic random sampling was used to recruit patients with hypertension in China. Demographic characteristics, the TASHP and blood pressure were collected. The psychometric tests of the TASHP included: construct validity, criteria-related validity, internal reliability, and split-half reliability. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve and Youden index were used to identify the cut-off score of the TASHP for blood pressure control. Results This study involved 366 patients. Confirmatory factor analysis supported the four-component structure of the TASHP proposed in the original scale development study. The TASHP has a satisfactory internal reliability (Cronbach’s α > 0.7) and a satisfactory split-half reliability (Spearman–Brown coefficients > 0.7). The patients with overall scores of the TASHP ⩾ 109 points were considered to have satisfactory adherence behaviours. Conclusion The TASHP is a validated and reliable instrument to measure the adherence to hypertension management in Chinese patients with hypertension. The cut-off score of 109 points can be considered as an effective measure to classify the level of adherence into satisfactory and low adherence behaviours.

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Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a common inflammatory rheumatic disease with a predilection for the axial skeleton, affecting 0.2% of the population. Current diagnostic criteria rely on a composite of clinical and radiological changes, with a mean time to diagnosis of 5 to 10 years. In this study we employed nano liquid-chromatography mass spectrometry analysis to detect and quantify proteins and small compounds including endogenous peptides and metabolites in serum from 18 AS patients and nine healthy individuals. We identified a total of 316 proteins in serum, of which 22 showed significant up- or down-regulation (p < 0.05) in AS patients. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of combined levels of serum amyloid P component and inter-α-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain 1 revealed high diagnostic value for Ankylosing Spondylitis (area under the curve = 0.98). We also depleted individual sera of proteins to analyze endogenous peptides and metabolic compounds. We detected more than 7000 molecular features in patients and healthy individuals. Quantitative MS analysis revealed compound profiles that correlate with the clinical assessment of disease activity. One molecular feature identified as a Vitamin D3 metabolite-(23S,25R)-25-hydroxyvitamin D3 26,23-peroxylactone-was down-regulated in AS. The ratio of this vitamin D metabolite versus vitamin D binding protein serum levels was also altered in AS as compared with controls. These changes may contribute to pathological skeletal changes in AS. Our study is the first example of an integration of proteomic and metabolomic techniques to find new biomarker candidates for the diagnosis of Ankylosing Spondylitis

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Purpose To determine whether melanopsin expressing intrinsically photosensitive Retinal Ganglion Cell (ipRGC) inputs to the pupil light reflex (PLR) are affected in early age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods The PLR was measured in 40 participants (20 early AMD and 20 age-matched controls) using a custom-built Maxwellian-view pupillometer. Sinusoidal stimuli (0.5 Hz, 11.9 s duration, 35.6° diameter) were presented to the study eye and the consensual pupil response was measured for stimuli with high melanopsin excitation (464nm; blue) and with low melanopsin excitation (638 nm; red) that biased activation to the outer retina. Two melanopsin PLR metrics were quantified: the Phase Amplitude Percentage (PAP) during the sinusoidal stimulus presentation and the Post-Illumination Pupil Response (PIPR). The PLR during stimulus presentation was analyzed using latency to constriction, transient pupil response and maximum pupil constriction metrics. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results The blue PIPR was significantly less sustained in the early AMD group (p<0.001). The red PIPR was not significantly different between groups (p>0.05). The PAP and blue stimulus constriction amplitude were significantly lower in the early AMD group (p < 0.05). There was no significant difference between groups in the latency or transient amplitude for both stimuli (p>0.05). ROC analysis showed excellent diagnostic accuracy for the blue PIPR metrics (AUC>0.9). Conclusions This is the initial report that the melanopsin controlled PIPR is dysfunctional in early AMD. The non-invasive, objective measurement of the ipRGC controlled PIPR has excellent diagnostic accuracy for early AMD.

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A competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) based on a broadly conserved, species-specific, B-cell epitope within the C terminus of Babesia bigemina rhoptry-associated protein 1a was validated for international use. Receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed 16% inhibition as the threshold for a negative result, with an associated specificity of 98.3% and sensitivity of 94.7%. Increasing the threshold to 21% increased the specificity to 100% but modestly decreased the sensitivity to 87.2%. By using 21% inhibition, the positive predictive values ranged from 90.7% (10% prevalence) to 100% (95% prevalence) and the negative predictive values ranged from 97.0% (10% prevalence) to 48.2% (95% prevalence). The assay was able to detect serum antibody as early as 7 days after intravenous inoculation. The cELISA was distributed to five different laboratories along with a reference set of 100 defined bovine serum samples, including known positive, known negative, and field samples. The pairwise concordance among the five laboratories ranged from 100% to 97%, and all kappa values were above 0.8, indicating a high degree of reliability. Overall, the cELISA appears to have the attributes necessary for international application.

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Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

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OBJECTIVE Quantitative assessment of small fiber damage is key to the early diagnosis and assessment of progression or regression of diabetic sensorimotor polyneuropathy (DSPN). Intraepidermal nerve fiber density (IENFD) is the current gold standard, but corneal confocal microscopy (CCM), an in vivo ophthalmic imaging modality, has the potential to be a noninvasive and objective image biomarker for identifying small fiber damage. The purpose of this study was to determine the diagnostic performance of CCM and IENFD by using the current guidelines as the reference standard. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Eighty-nine subjects (26 control subjects and 63 patients with type 1 diabetes), with and without DSPN, underwent a detailed assessment of neuropathy, including CCM and skin biopsy. RESULTS Manual and automated corneal nerve fiber density (CNFD) (P < 0.0001), branch density (CNBD) (P < 0.0001) and length (CNFL) (P < 0.0001), and IENFD (P < 0.001) were significantly reduced in patients with diabetes with DSPN compared with control subjects. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for identifying DSPN was 0.82 for manual CNFD, 0.80 for automated CNFD, and 0.66 for IENFD, which did not differ significantly (P = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS This study shows comparable diagnostic efficiency between CCM and IENFD, providing further support for the clinical utility of CCM as a surrogate end point for DSPN.

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OBJECTIVE Public health organizations recommend that preschool-aged children accumulate at least 3h of physical activity (PA) daily. Objective monitoring using pedometers offers an opportunity to measure preschooler's PA and assess compliance with this recommendation. The purpose of this study was to derive step-based recommendations consistent with the 3h PA recommendation for preschool-aged children. METHOD The study sample comprised 916 preschool-aged children, aged 3 to 6years (mean age=5.0+/-0.8years). Children were recruited from kindergartens located in Portugal, between 2009 and 2013. Children wore an ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer that measured PA intensity and steps per day simultaneously over a 7-day monitoring period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the daily step count threshold associated with meeting the daily 3hour PA recommendation. RESULTS A significant correlation was observed between minutes of total PA and steps per day (r=0.76, p<0.001). The optimal step count for >/=3h of total PA was 9099 steps per day (sensitivity (90%) and specificity (66%)) with area under the ROC curve=0.86 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.88). CONCLUSION Preschool-aged children who accumulate less than 9000 steps per day may be considered Insufficiently Active.

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Glaucoma is the second leading cause of blindness worldwide. Often, the optic nerve head (ONH) glaucomatous damage and ONH changes occur prior to visual field loss and are observable in vivo. Thus, digital image analysis is a promising choice for detecting the onset and/or progression of glaucoma. In this paper, we present a new framework for detecting glaucomatous changes in the ONH of an eye using the method of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). A baseline topograph subspace was constructed for each eye to describe the structure of the ONH of the eye at a reference/baseline condition using POD. Any glaucomatous changes in the ONH of the eye present during a follow-up exam were estimated by comparing the follow-up ONH topography with its baseline topograph subspace representation. Image correspondence measures of L-1-norm and L-2-norm, correlation, and image Euclidean distance (IMED) were used to quantify the ONH changes. An ONH topographic library built from the Louisiana State University Experimental Glaucoma study was used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) was used to compare the diagnostic performance of the POD-induced parameters with the parameters of the topographic change analysis (TCA) method. The IMED and L-2-norm parameters in the POD framework provided the highest AUC of 0.94 at 10 degrees. field of imaging and 0.91 at 15 degrees. field of imaging compared to the TCA parameters with an AUC of 0.86 and 0.88, respectively. The proposed POD framework captures the instrument measurement variability and inherent structure variability and shows promise for improving our ability to detect glaucomatous change over time in glaucoma management.