The Changing Inter-Industry Wage Structure of the Organised Manufacturing Sector in India, 1973-74 to 2003-04

This study examines the inter-industry wage structure of the organised manufacturing sector in India for the period 1973-74 to 2003-04 by estimating the growth of average real wages for production workers by industry. In order to estimate the growth rates, the study adopts a methodological framework that differs from other studies in that the time series properties of the concerned variables are closely considered in order to obtain meaningful estimates of growth that are unbiased and (asymptotically) efficient. Using wage data on 51 manufacturing industries at three digit level of the National Industrial Classification 1998 (India), our estimation procedure obtains estimates of growth of real wages per worker that are deterministic in nature by accounting for any potential structural break(s). Our findings show that the inter-industry wage structure in India has changed a lot in the period 1973-74 to 2003-04 and that it provides some evidence that the inter-industry wage differences have become more pronounced in the post-reforms period. Thus this paper provides new evidence from India on the need to consider the hypothesis that industry affiliation is potentially an important determinant of wages when studying any relationship between reforms and wages.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Real-time molecular epidemiology of tuberculosis by direct genotyping of smear-positive clinical specimens.

We applied MIRU-VNTR (mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat typing) to directly analyze the bacilli present in 61 stain-positive specimens from tuberculosis patients. A complete MIRU type (24 loci) was obtained for all but one (no amplification in one locus) of the specimens (98.4%), and the allelic values fully correlated with those obtained from the corresponding cultures. Our study is the first to demonstrate that real-time genotyping of Mycobacterium tuberculosis can be achieved, fully transforming the way in which molecular epidemiology techniques can be integrated into control programs.

Estimation of the real population and its impact on the utilisation of healthcare services in Mediterranean resort regions: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND The demographic structure has a significant influence on the use of healthcare services, as does the size of the population denominators. Very few studies have been published on methods for estimating the real population such as tourist resorts. The lack of information about these problems means there is a corresponding lack of information about the behaviour of populational denominators (the floating population or tourist load) and the effect of this on the use of healthcare services. The objectives of the study were: a) To determine the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) ratio, per person per day, among populations of known size; b) to estimate, by means of this ratio, the real population in an area where tourist numbers are very significant; and c) to determine the impact on the utilisation of hospital emergency healthcare services of the registered population, in comparison to the non-resident population, in two areas where tourist numbers are very significant. METHODS An ecological study design was employed. We analysed the Healthcare Districts of the Costa del Sol and the island of Menorca. Both are Spanish territories in the Mediterranean region. RESULTS In the two areas analysed, the correlation coefficient between the MSW ratio and admissions to hospital emergency departments exceeded 0.9, with p < 0.001. On the basis of MSW generation ratios, obtained for a control zone and also measured in neighbouring countries, we estimated the real population. For the summer months, when tourist activity is greatest and demand for emergency healthcare at hospitals is highest, this value was found to be double that of the registered population. CONCLUSION The MSW indicator, which is both ecological and indirect, can be used to estimate the real population in areas where population levels vary significantly during the year. This parameter is of interest in planning and dimensioning the provision of healthcare services.

Selection of Reference Genes for Quantitative Real Time PCR (qPCR) Assays in Tissue from Human Ascending Aorta.

Dilatation of the ascending aorta (AAD) is a prevalent aortopathy that occurs frequently associated with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV), the most common human congenital cardiac malformation. The molecular mechanisms leading to AAD associated with BAV are still poorly understood. The search for differentially expressed genes in diseased tissue by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) is an invaluable tool to fill this gap. However, studies dedicated to identify reference genes necessary for normalization of mRNA expression in aortic tissue are scarce. In this report, we evaluate the qPCR expression of six candidate reference genes in tissue from the ascending aorta of 52 patients with a variety of clinical and demographic characteristics, normal and dilated aortas, and different morphologies of the aortic valve (normal aorta and normal valve n = 30; dilated aorta and normal valve n = 10; normal aorta and BAV n = 4; dilated aorta and BAV n = 8). The expression stability of the candidate reference genes was determined with three statistical algorithms, GeNorm, NormFinder and Bestkeeper. The expression analyses showed that the most stable genes for the three algorithms employed were CDKN1β, POLR2A and CASC3, independently of the structure of the aorta and the valve morphology. In conclusion, we propose the use of these three genes as reference genes for mRNA expression analysis in human ascending aorta. However, we suggest searching for specific reference genes when conducting qPCR experiments with new cohort of samples.

Use of the frc gene as a molecular marker to characterize oxalate-oxidizing bacterial abundance and diversity structure in soil.

Oxalate catabolism, which can have both medical and environmental implications, is performed by phylogenetically diverse bacteria. The formyl-CoA-transferase gene was chosen as a molecular marker of the oxalotrophic function. Degenerated primers were deduced from an alignment of frc gene sequences available in databases. The specificity of primers was tested on a variety of frc-containing and frc-lacking bacteria. The frc-primers were then used to develop PCR-DGGE and real-time SybrGreen PCR assays in soils containing various amounts of oxalate. Some PCR products from pure cultures and from soil samples were cloned and sequenced. Data were used to generate a phylogenetic tree showing that environmental PCR products belonged to the target physiological group. The extent of diversity visualised on DGGE pattern was higher for soil samples containing carbonate resulting from oxalate catabolism. Moreover, the amount of frc gene copies in the investigated soils was detected in the range of 1.64x10(7) to 1.75x10(8)/g of dry soil under oxalogenic tree (representing 0.5 to 1.2% of total 16S rRNA gene copies), whereas the number of frc gene copies in the reference soil was 6.4x10(6) (or 0.2% of 16S rRNA gene copies). This indicates that oxalotrophic bacteria are numerous and widespread in soils and that a relationship exists between the presence of the oxalogenic trees Milicia excelsa and Afzelia africana and the relative abundance of oxalotrophic guilds in the total bacterial communities. This is obviously related to the accomplishment of the oxalate-carbonate pathway, which explains the alkalinization and calcium carbonate accumulation occurring below these trees in an otherwise acidic soil. The molecular tools developed in this study will allow in-depth understanding of the functional implication of these bacteria on carbonate accumulation as a way of atmospheric CO(2) sequestration.

Is confidence in decisions related to feedback? Evidence-and lack of evidence-from random samples of real-world managerial behavior?

Confidence in decision making is an important dimension of managerialbehavior. However, what is the relation between confidence, on the onehand, and the fact of receiving or expecting to receive feedback ondecisions taken, on the other hand? To explore this and related issuesin the context of everyday decision making, use was made of the ESM(Experience Sampling Method) to sample decisions taken by undergraduatesand business executives. For several days, participants received 4 or 5SMS messages daily (on their mobile telephones) at random moments at whichpoint they completed brief questionnaires about their current decisionmaking activities. Issues considered here include differences between thetypes of decisions faced by the two groups, their structure, feedback(received and expected), and confidence in decisions taken as well as inthe validity of feedback. No relation was found between confidence indecisions and whether participants received or expected to receivefeedback on those decisions. In addition, although participants areclearly aware that feedback can provide both confirming and disconfirming evidence, their ability to specify appropriatefeedback is imperfect. Finally, difficulties experienced inusing the ESM are discussed as are possibilities for further researchusing this methodology.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

The aggregate claims distribution of a life insurance portfolio with a pairwise positive dependence structure

The individual life model has always been considered as the one closest to the real situation of the total claims of a life insurance portfolio. It only makes the ¿nearly inevitable assumption¿ of independence of the lifelenghts of insured persons in the portfolio. Many clinical studies, however, have demonstrated positive dependence of paired lives such as husband and wife. In our opinion, it won¿t be unrealistic expecting a considerable number of married couples in any life insurance portfolio (e.g. life insurance contracts formalized at the time of signing a mortatge) and these dependences materially increase the values for the stop-loss premiums associated to the aggregate claims of the portfolio. Since the stop-loss order is the order followed by any risk averse decison maker, the simplifying hypothesis of independence constitute a real financial danger for the company, in the sense that most of their decisions are based on the aggregated claims distribution. In this paper, we will determine approximations for the distribution of the aggregate claims of a life insurance portfolio with some married couples and we will describe how to make safe decisions when we don¿t know exactly the dependence structure between the risks in each couple. Results in this paper are partly based on results in Dhaene and Goovaerts (1997)

Landscape structure affects dispersal in the greater white-toothed shrew: inference between genetic and simulated ecological distances

Animal dispersal in a fragmented landscape depends on the complex interaction between landscape structure and animal behavior. To better understand how individuals disperse, it is important to explicitly represent the properties of organisms and the landscape in which they move. A common approach to modelling dispersal includes representing the landscape as a grid of equal sized cells and then simulating individual movement as a correlated random walk. This approach uses a priori scale of resolution, which limits the representation of all landscape features and how different dispersal abilities are modelled. We develop a vector-based landscape model coupled with an object-oriented model for animal dispersal. In this spatially explicit dispersal model, landscape features are defined based on their geographic and thematic properties and dispersal is modelled through consideration of an organism's behavior, movement rules and searching strategies (such as visual cues). We present the model's underlying concepts, its ability to adequately represent landscape features and provide simulation of dispersal according to different dispersal abilities. We demonstrate the potential of the model by simulating two virtual species in a real Swiss landscape. This illustrates the model's ability to simulate complex dispersal processes and provides information about dispersal such as colonization probability and spatial distribution of the organism's path

Impact of community structure on information transfer

The observation that real complex networks have internal structure has important implication for dynamic processes occurring on such topologies. Here we investigate the impact of community structure on a model of information transfer able to deal with both search and congestion simultaneously. We show that networks with fuzzy community structure are more efficient in terms of packet delivery than those with pronounced community structure. We also propose an alternative packet routing algorithm which takes advantage of the knowledge of communities to improve information transfer and show that in the context of the model an intermediate level of community structure is optimal. Finally, we show that in a hierarchical network setting, providing knowledge of communities at the level of highest modularity will improve network capacity by the largest amount.

The aggregate claims distribution of a life insurance portfolio with a pairwise positive dependence structure

The individual life model has always been considered as the one closest to the real situation of the total claims of a life insurance portfolio. It only makes the ¿nearly inevitable assumption¿ of independence of the lifelenghts of insured persons in the portfolio. Many clinical studies, however, have demonstrated positive dependence of paired lives such as husband and wife. In our opinion, it won¿t be unrealistic expecting a considerable number of married couples in any life insurance portfolio (e.g. life insurance contracts formalized at the time of signing a mortatge) and these dependences materially increase the values for the stop-loss premiums associated to the aggregate claims of the portfolio. Since the stop-loss order is the order followed by any risk averse decison maker, the simplifying hypothesis of independence constitute a real financial danger for the company, in the sense that most of their decisions are based on the aggregated claims distribution. In this paper, we will determine approximations for the distribution of the aggregate claims of a life insurance portfolio with some married couples and we will describe how to make safe decisions when we don¿t know exactly the dependence structure between the risks in each couple. Results in this paper are partly based on results in Dhaene and Goovaerts (1997)

Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

Percolation and three-dimensional structure of supercritical water

It is well established that at ambient and supercooled conditions water can be described as a percolating network of H bonds. This work is aimed at identifying, by neutron diffraction experiments combined with computer simulations, a percolation line in supercritical water, where the extension of the H-bond network is in question. It is found that in real supercritical water liquidlike states are observed at or above the percolation threshold, while below this threshold gaslike water forms small, sheetlike configurations. Inspection of the three-dimensional arrangement of water molecules suggests that crossing of this percolation line is accompa- nied by a change of symmetry in the first neighboring shell of molecules from trigonal below the line to tetrahedral above.

Deciphering the global organization of clustering in real complex networks

We uncover the global organization of clustering in real complex networks. To this end, we ask whether triangles in real networks organize as in maximally random graphs with given degree and clustering distributions, or as in maximally ordered graph models where triangles are forced into modules. The answer comes by way of exploring m-core landscapes, where the m-core is defined, akin to the k-core, as the maximal subgraph with edges participating in at least m triangles. This property defines a set of nested subgraphs that, contrarily to k-cores, is able to distinguish between hierarchical and modular architectures. We find that the clustering organization in real networks is neither completely random nor ordered although, surprisingly, it is more random than modular. This supports the idea that the structure of real networks may in fact be the outcome of self-organized processes based on local optimization rules, in contrast to global optimization principles.